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Survivor 45 Discussion Thread
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Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Those were specifically beware advantages though. Late game idols are simpler because the show wants that big moment to occur.
Correct. I was referring to the idols found pre-swap.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Whenever someone makes a bold move they become instant targets. Emily will now become a major target because (1) she made a bold move that worked but (2) that bold move did not give her a real advantage. It just knocked out someone that others wanted out who had an idol. Contrast that with the moves made by Erika to oust Shan and Maryanne to oust Omer. They both worked and gave Erika and Maryanne advantages. Then there's Jesse getting rid of Cody. Very big gutsy move but not one that helped Jesse's rank. It made him look good but he didn't have anyone to rely upon other than his idol. Lucky for Jesse, it was close to the end and he DID have that idol to play so the only thing keeping him out of the finals and winning was fire.
Bold moves are about timing. I am not so sure that Emily's timing was that great. Getting rid of a Reba or two first would have probably been a better strategy. I fear Emily's number will be up soon.
Bold moves are about timing. I am not so sure that Emily's timing was that great. Getting rid of a Reba or two first would have probably been a better strategy. I fear Emily's number will be up soon.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
It didn't strike me as a big flashy move. Lots of people were in on it. Jake and Katurah have to be drawing dead at this point so assuming they go out next, is it 4-1 on Emily or does she become a swing vote in a 2-2 battle?
What an episode! The dynamics were so interesting. The relationships being built the whole game finally came to a head. There was plenty of bad gameplay, as well.
I'll start with Emily. What a player. Aside from David Wright, I'm not sure there's a bigger underdog story in Survivor history. She went from being a social liability, to being one of the strongest social players in the game. As far as last week's decision, I still don't think it was the wrong choice. Where she lost is was when she came back and immediately wanted to take credit. They weren't looking at her until that moment. It was a game-losing mistake for her. And even still, she was not who people wanted to go home.
I think Drew is getting very arrogant. I really liked him earlier in the season, but he's starting to view himself as a prophet. You could see it in Kellie's eyes on the jury, too. I know that clip may be spliced together, but I don't think they'd include it if it didn't mean something. I think he's lost Jake and Julie's votes. And I don't think he really has any relationship with old Belo.
Austin really played poorly this episode. He played with his emotions, rather than strategically. I thought it was going to come back to bite him, thinking Julie would vote him out. I think this really hurts his chance of winning at the end. He really didn't have anything to his credit before this, but now everyone knows he ruined the plan.
It's really hard to predict the next vote, because where do alliances fall after this? It's so complicated. Dee and Julie are likely still together. Does Austin side with them, or with Drew? Does Drew accept him back? Jake and Katurah are free agents. Just so many ways it could go.
Also, Katurah's backstory is one of the most shocking we've ever seen. My heart broke for her, but it's so impressive that she has accomplished so much. I really see her as a much more well-rounded character now.
Here are my updated winner power rankings. It seems like there's not much movement, but remember that a +1 is essentially staying even, if the previously voted out person was higher than them on the last rankings. For example, Emily was #2, so everyone automatically gets a +1, except for Dee, who was #1 last week.
Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (-)
2. Julie (+3)
Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
3. Drew (-, but moved down a tier)
Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
4. Austin (-, but moved down two tiers)
5. Jake (+1)
6. Katurah (+1)
Tier 4 (No Chance)
None
I'll start with Emily. What a player. Aside from David Wright, I'm not sure there's a bigger underdog story in Survivor history. She went from being a social liability, to being one of the strongest social players in the game. As far as last week's decision, I still don't think it was the wrong choice. Where she lost is was when she came back and immediately wanted to take credit. They weren't looking at her until that moment. It was a game-losing mistake for her. And even still, she was not who people wanted to go home.
I think Drew is getting very arrogant. I really liked him earlier in the season, but he's starting to view himself as a prophet. You could see it in Kellie's eyes on the jury, too. I know that clip may be spliced together, but I don't think they'd include it if it didn't mean something. I think he's lost Jake and Julie's votes. And I don't think he really has any relationship with old Belo.
Austin really played poorly this episode. He played with his emotions, rather than strategically. I thought it was going to come back to bite him, thinking Julie would vote him out. I think this really hurts his chance of winning at the end. He really didn't have anything to his credit before this, but now everyone knows he ruined the plan.
It's really hard to predict the next vote, because where do alliances fall after this? It's so complicated. Dee and Julie are likely still together. Does Austin side with them, or with Drew? Does Drew accept him back? Jake and Katurah are free agents. Just so many ways it could go.
Also, Katurah's backstory is one of the most shocking we've ever seen. My heart broke for her, but it's so impressive that she has accomplished so much. I really see her as a much more well-rounded character now.
Here are my updated winner power rankings. It seems like there's not much movement, but remember that a +1 is essentially staying even, if the previously voted out person was higher than them on the last rankings. For example, Emily was #2, so everyone automatically gets a +1, except for Dee, who was #1 last week.
Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (-)
2. Julie (+3)
Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
3. Drew (-, but moved down a tier)
Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
4. Austin (-, but moved down two tiers)
5. Jake (+1)
6. Katurah (+1)
Tier 4 (No Chance)
None
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I say Dee wins. But I am confused about something. I understand Dee voting for Julie to stay camouflaged by the votes. However, WHY did she want it to look like she and Julie were mad at each other? She wants to save Julie, right? So why not just make it look like she was going with the majority? Why put up an act like she did? Julie would still be the target next time regardless. Her act would only be to make herself look good, but I can't see how that act helps Julie at all (and why she would tell Julie).
Drew looks to be a goner. His spiel is getting old.
Drew looks to be a goner. His spiel is getting old.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
My initial question, is if it was pretty clear Julie knew she was a target why didn't someone throw a vote elsewhere?
Austin, knowing she had an idol, would have been wise to toss a vote somewhere in the far from unlikely event she targeted him.
Great episode in any case with so many different things happening. I can't overstate how good the 90-minutes episodes are in terms of letting us see so many of the conversations and different ways the vote could go.
Julie would appear to have few options now, so where does she go from here? Emily struck be as someone who was the glue who was able to control chaos, and I wonder where everyone falls going forward.
Shout out to Katurah to asking the million dollar question, why can't we just vote someone out at 4 instead of making fire? There have been some great votes at the final four, especially in the international seasons. There's a reason they've all decided against using it.
Speaking of which, Survivor UK has gotten better with each passing week and is recommended.
Austin, knowing she had an idol, would have been wise to toss a vote somewhere in the far from unlikely event she targeted him.
Great episode in any case with so many different things happening. I can't overstate how good the 90-minutes episodes are in terms of letting us see so many of the conversations and different ways the vote could go.
Julie would appear to have few options now, so where does she go from here? Emily struck be as someone who was the glue who was able to control chaos, and I wonder where everyone falls going forward.
Shout out to Katurah to asking the million dollar question, why can't we just vote someone out at 4 instead of making fire? There have been some great votes at the final four, especially in the international seasons. There's a reason they've all decided against using it.
Speaking of which, Survivor UK has gotten better with each passing week and is recommended.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I think, as Dee said and Austin showed, that he didn't truly want Julie out. Austin is not strong strategically and is certainly playing by fear. He wants to go where the majority is which was for Julie. But Austin knew the Julie idea of voting him out what all part of Dee's plan to make the others feel like Julie didn't have an idol and was desperate. That was all. I had been waiting for someone to play that game and they did it perfectly. But it was all Dee's idea and Austin is Dee's little puppet right now.
My question still stands though. Why did Dee want it to look like she and Julie were mad at each other? Was it to divert the attention away from Julie by making her look like not as much of a jury threat? If Dee is mad at her, she's be the apple spoiling the apple cart and take the threat level of Julie down a notch or two? Thus, they can target Drew as the Julie-voting mastermind and new highest threat? If that is the plan and Dee ends up winning, she could be the 2nd best female winner of all time (after Kim) and a top tier winner.
My question still stands though. Why did Dee want it to look like she and Julie were mad at each other? Was it to divert the attention away from Julie by making her look like not as much of a jury threat? If Dee is mad at her, she's be the apple spoiling the apple cart and take the threat level of Julie down a notch or two? Thus, they can target Drew as the Julie-voting mastermind and new highest threat? If that is the plan and Dee ends up winning, she could be the 2nd best female winner of all time (after Kim) and a top tier winner.
Smiley/OCD
Well-Known Member
I’m sorry to see Emily go…but again, keep your trap shut with what happened when she made her trip. She should’ve been VERY vague on her answers as to the challenge. I’m an underdog kinda guy, so I’m now rooting for Josh.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I don't know about the whole "mad at each other" thing but I guess Dee wants to downplay how close she still is to Julie.
If the writing is now on the wall for Julie, she can go with the majority. She can also flip wherever since she was working with everyone.
I can see a Dee win because she seems to be well liked (often the most important factor) and has put herself in a position where she is an ally to everyone.
Would it be a great win? I'm not seeing it right now. She would need a big move. Right now, it doesn't seem to be about how Dee could win but how everyone else lost. Reba has done well but the others are handing them the game. This week, idol or not, Emily, Katurah, and Jake had the power to send someone home with their three votes by exploiting the Reba divide.
Jake and Katurah might now be the swing vote in the middle that I thought Emily would be, had she not gloated about Bruce so much and put the target on her back.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
True about Julie going with whoever but the caveat is that she would still be the main target. How the target got off of Dee I will never know, but I assume Dee did a good job with that. With Emily gone, Dee and Julie are the only reasonable contenders left. Austin is being controlled by others. Katurah has only been obsessed with Bruce and has played a HORRIBLE game. Jake is just clinging on by a thread and isn't even a threat. Drew may be a bit to cocky and arrogant and just lost his big play.
The difference between players like Dee and Kim are that Kim controlled everyone single-handedly. Dee had a group of four to help. Kim was the single person who decided what happened. Kim had full control of everyone. Dee has definitely gotten her way, but I don't feel like she's had full control.
I also feel like Kim's tribemates were much sloppier, and she had to keep a tighter leash on them to make sure they didn't mess things up for her. Whereas the Reba 4 in a lot of cases have just been able to let things play out, and nothing that's played out has been a threat to their games. It's not like the Reba 4 has had to babysit the other castaways.
So as far as dominant gameplay goes, I'd say Kim and Sarah for sure were more dominant. Parvati, too, even though she had help. And if we're considered only total control and dominance from the start to end of the game, you could throw Sophie in there, too. But I think there's a lot more that goes into it than just control from start to end.
I also feel like Kim's tribemates were much sloppier, and she had to keep a tighter leash on them to make sure they didn't mess things up for her. Whereas the Reba 4 in a lot of cases have just been able to let things play out, and nothing that's played out has been a threat to their games. It's not like the Reba 4 has had to babysit the other castaways.
So as far as dominant gameplay goes, I'd say Kim and Sarah for sure were more dominant. Parvati, too, even though she had help. And if we're considered only total control and dominance from the start to end of the game, you could throw Sophie in there, too. But I think there's a lot more that goes into it than just control from start to end.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I meant that Dee can go with whomever makes the most sense. In theory, she's an ally to everyone.
If Julie goes with another unanimous vote, Dee can work with either of the two pairs remaining.
She might be in a good position.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
That's the blindside I've been expecting the last 3 episodes.
It really feels like Dee has this season in the bag.
It really feels like Dee has this season in the bag.
This was another really good episode. Unfortunately we needed a near Pagonging for it to happen, but the breakup of the Reba 4 has been so interesting. This episode mirror last week's so closely. Drew and Julie are targeting each other. Austin and Dee both have to decide whether to tell the other. It looks like Dee chose not to tell Austin, and I think that's the right move.
Dee is ice cold, and I love it, but she still has a heart. She's just not letting it get in the way. I love the narrative between her and Austin.
Even though Dee is the biggest threat, and will likely take the credit for this move, I still think she's in a decent position. Austin will likely come back to her. Julie and Katurah are both on her side. The only issue is if Jake uses his idol to take her out. If that's the case, I could see Jake as the winner. It would complete his story of not being able to gain any traction, then being the sole reason the season's biggest threat goes home.
But if Jake doesn't play his idol and take Dee out, I think everyone left outside of him is wanting to go with Dee to the final three for some crazy reason.
Drew was too cocky, and he wasn't able to believe that anyone would go after him. It's like the thought never entered his head, and he just thought they'd run it all the way to the end. He ended up becoming the season's villain, and I really like when there are villains on Survivor. It's a lot of fun.
The 90 minute episodes have helped so much this season. Has it been an all-time great season? Not at all. But if they have 60 minute episodes, we wouldn't have seen so many amazing moments, and this would likely be a pretty blah season. But this end game is as interesting as any I can remember in recent memory.
The quits pull down the pre-merge, but outside of that it was a solid pre-merge. The early merge was really fun with Kaleb's SitD and the Kellie blindside. Bruce was a great episode. Emily was a great episode. The more I think about it, the more I think I'm liking this season a lot. But for some reason, the cast just didn't connect as strongly for me. I enjoyed 44's cast more. It's hard to beat Carolyn, Yam Yam and Carson.
Here are my updated winner rankings...
Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (-)
2. Julie (-)
Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
3. Jake (+2, needs to idol out Dee)
Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
4. Austin (-)
Tier 4 (No Chance)
5. Katruah (+1, moved down a tier)
I finally put someone in the No Chance category. I haven't done it all season, but I can't imagine how Katurah wins. It'd be really surprising. I think a Dee, Julie, Katurah final three is very possible. But this is the longest I've gone with writing someone off. And as I've said before, I've previously written off winners in the new era before moving them into better positions (see Erika, Maryanne, and Gabler).
Can't wait for the finale, but I'm already dreading the Survivor offseason.
Dee is ice cold, and I love it, but she still has a heart. She's just not letting it get in the way. I love the narrative between her and Austin.
Even though Dee is the biggest threat, and will likely take the credit for this move, I still think she's in a decent position. Austin will likely come back to her. Julie and Katurah are both on her side. The only issue is if Jake uses his idol to take her out. If that's the case, I could see Jake as the winner. It would complete his story of not being able to gain any traction, then being the sole reason the season's biggest threat goes home.
But if Jake doesn't play his idol and take Dee out, I think everyone left outside of him is wanting to go with Dee to the final three for some crazy reason.
Drew was too cocky, and he wasn't able to believe that anyone would go after him. It's like the thought never entered his head, and he just thought they'd run it all the way to the end. He ended up becoming the season's villain, and I really like when there are villains on Survivor. It's a lot of fun.
The 90 minute episodes have helped so much this season. Has it been an all-time great season? Not at all. But if they have 60 minute episodes, we wouldn't have seen so many amazing moments, and this would likely be a pretty blah season. But this end game is as interesting as any I can remember in recent memory.
The quits pull down the pre-merge, but outside of that it was a solid pre-merge. The early merge was really fun with Kaleb's SitD and the Kellie blindside. Bruce was a great episode. Emily was a great episode. The more I think about it, the more I think I'm liking this season a lot. But for some reason, the cast just didn't connect as strongly for me. I enjoyed 44's cast more. It's hard to beat Carolyn, Yam Yam and Carson.
Here are my updated winner rankings...
Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (-)
2. Julie (-)
Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
3. Jake (+2, needs to idol out Dee)
Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
4. Austin (-)
Tier 4 (No Chance)
5. Katruah (+1, moved down a tier)
I finally put someone in the No Chance category. I haven't done it all season, but I can't imagine how Katurah wins. It'd be really surprising. I think a Dee, Julie, Katurah final three is very possible. But this is the longest I've gone with writing someone off. And as I've said before, I've previously written off winners in the new era before moving them into better positions (see Erika, Maryanne, and Gabler).
Can't wait for the finale, but I'm already dreading the Survivor offseason.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
The long episodes have absolutely made a huge difference. We really saw what was happening in terms of how the tribal could go, with just enough information withheld (Dee's choice) to give a little bit of suspense.
Drew was really blinded for sure. He turned on Julie and didn't think the same could happen to him.
In theory, everyone who isn't Julie or Dee should be going against them next week, but her relationship with Austin might just be the story of the season, the one thing that stops the optimum move from happening.
That was also the most old school reward with the helicopter in as long as I can remember. Fun.
I was a little low on Dee having a "big" game last week, but these two episodes combined really tell a story. She used her relationship with Austin to get information and use it last week, but was smart enough not to make the same mistake he did a week later.
Drew was really blinded for sure. He turned on Julie and didn't think the same could happen to him.
In theory, everyone who isn't Julie or Dee should be going against them next week, but her relationship with Austin might just be the story of the season, the one thing that stops the optimum move from happening.
That was also the most old school reward with the helicopter in as long as I can remember. Fun.
I was a little low on Dee having a "big" game last week, but these two episodes combined really tell a story. She used her relationship with Austin to get information and use it last week, but was smart enough not to make the same mistake he did a week later.
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If Dee wins, I think she's easily the best winner of the new era. Yam Yam was good, but Dee has had a lot more control than he did.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Until now my only knock against her is that it seemed too easy to be in control, i.e. everyone who should or could have been fighting back against her alliance seemed to be pushovers.
This week combined with last really showed her level of control, awareness, and ability to keep a secret.