Survivor 45 Discussion Thread

[Wendy Pleakley]

Okay, without getting into tonight's episode yet, I will say that the 90 minute episodes (besides being a commitment), have really hashed out players and their personalities and alliances a LOT better that most previous seasons. I feel like I have a good handle on where everyone sits and can make better predictions about who might win or come close. This is especially true with having 90 minute episodes with only one challenge. Right now, none of the tribes are being ignored and nobody is invisible. We also have clear alliances on each tribe, for however they may last.

The 90 minutes really is a major improvement.

The twists and gimmicks will always be debated, but one thing they often do is take up time, to the point we see little else.

By the time we're done seeing how someone managed to collect everyone's beads, there's little time for anything else.

This format allows the twists, good or bad, not to overshadow everything else.

I'm happy they didn't do the "you must draw something out of this bag" bit on the journey again. So far at least. The players should always have choice.

 

[PUSH]

I liked this episode overall, despite my winner pick going home. I thought the 90 minute episode really helped tell the storyline again.

I enjoyed the idol hunt much more than normal this time. However, I don't like the "risk your vote" aspect. I feel like they are getting too trigger happy with losing votes. But the dynamics between Austin, Drew, Dee, and Julie were really fun. I'm really liking Dee. She has good reads and seems to be a good social player.

On Lulu, Sabiyah definitely targeted Kaleb WAY too early. She was worrying about the end game before she even made the merge. She caused her own demise. But kudos to Kaleb for fostering that relationship with Emily. It ended up paying off in a massive way. I do worry that Kaleb is already being viewed as a massive threat. I think he can make it to the merge, but it will be hard for him to make it to the end.

I'm kicking myself that I originally wanted to pick Kellie as my winner pick, but then changed to Sabiyah because I felt that Kellie was too much of a threatening archetype. But Sabiyah was a lot of fun to watch. She just got too eager. If her tribe would have been on the winning end once or twice, I don't think she gets that trigger happy.

I'm really excited that we have a real tribe swap again next week. We haven't had one since Winners at War.

 

[Jedijax719]

They've really been doing a FANTASTIC job at fleshing out alliances and positions on all 3 tribes. You'd think that the red or blue tribes would be mostly ignored with the yellow tribe (I really can't keep tribe names straight lol) going to TC all the time. But we have completely sorted out who is who on the other tribes and some internal conflict as well. The only two that have been ignored are Sifu and J'Maya. Not sure what is up with that but I guess they aren't long for the game.

Right now, my eye is on Dee and Austin from the red tribe (Julie's been too up and down and Drew is being shown as TOO smart possibly for his own good), and Kellie and Katurah on the blue tribe (although Katurah's main story has been to boot Bruce. Kellie has been shown to be introspective about her position in alliances which is a good thing.

As for the yellow tribe, it is hard to assess when they've gone to tribal every time. Kaleb is the golden boy and will be a MASSIVE target in the merge. Emily has the growth arc we saw in Kathy (season 4), Aubrey (season 32) and David (season 33). Does that mean she goes as far as those 3 and finishes between 2 and 4? Who knows? Right now, she's the main star but hasn't hogged all the airtime. It would be an amazing journey if she did win but that may be too good to be true.

Sabiyah had one of the best edits of the season for 3 episodes. If she got the boot, anyone can get it at any time.

 

[PUSH]

I wouldn't be surprised if Emilt wins after her confessional about going home forst or winning. But is that too obvious?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Continues to be a good season.

I suspect the yellow tribe will be swing votes next week. We've seen it before, where players that don't lose are itching to get rid of the person they've wanted to target. Will depend on how things shake out.

The challenge and puzzle felt new. Not sure if it's been done before but they seem to be putting in a newfound effort to change things up.

Also happy to see an actual tribe swap. Funny how something that was once the norm can be viewed as a "twist" when it comes back from hiatus.

I like the idol twist somewhat. There's risk and reward, and an new adjacent advantage that can work with it. It's also a player choice, not an automatic vote loss. Multiple advantages that impact one another is interesting.

However, it's a lot of work to find the idol only to find out it's not very useful without taking multiple additional risks. Might be overkill, but not a terrible concept.

 

[PUSH]

The challenge and puzzle felt new. Not sure if it's been done before but they seem to be putting in a newfound effort to change things up.

Jeff said in an interview with Dalton Ross that they changed puzzles because of the invention of 3D printers. So Carson is a game changer. I'm happy they're getting fresh challenges. They were very stale.

 

[PUSH]

Another quit. Very disappointing. I wonder if Sean would have gone through with it if Hannah hadn't quit in the first episode. It makes me wonder how many have considered quitting in past seasons, but never went through with it.

Dee made a terrible mistake by still voting Sifu. She'd almost be better to throw the next challenge to get him out, assuming she still has the two other women.

As far as the tribe shakedowns, it's very interesting how it all panned out. Even the lopsided tribes were split in a way where there are cracks.

I absolutely love that Katurah and Bruce are on the same tribe. Katurah versus Bruce is one of the greatest one-sided feuds in Survivor history. The 0 word confessional after Bruce faked losing the flint was amazing editing. It's probably my favorite moment of the season so far.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Man, a fantastic extended episode with no twists to suck up time or change outcomes, just extended tribe dynamics, only to have the air sucked out at the last moment with another quit.

Who knows how Sean felt. After nine days of not eating and almost never winning I suspect he was just running on his last fumes. We saw the joy and relief in the faces of the other two Lulu members at finally winning immunity. They were clearly suffering. I didn't like the ending but I'm not going to judge Sean.

I think the conditions are one thing they still need to tweak. Give people a nominal amount of rice so they can play. Lulu never stood a chance of bouncing back after a week of nothing. We saw it last season, when they finally got some rice and players explicitly said they felt like they could think for the first time in weeks. Give the players just enough sustenance that we get the strategy.

It seemed Reba was going to splinter, which would have been so interesting and justified in my opinion. I said it last week, you don't necessarily want to hit merge with six intact. If you do, the two smaller tribes are likely to team up against you. There's also likely at least some conflict festering that hasn't been addressed. You want to eliminate the people you don't fully trust and voting builds trust among the remaining players.

 

[Jedijax719]

The Katurah/Bruce thing is really weird. It almost sounds like one is in the finals and one is on the jury and their feud will impact the outcome for the person in the finals. Which is which is uncertain, but my guess would be (if true) that Kat is in the finals and her spat with Bruce will influence Bruce's vote.

Austin and Drew look good for the long game. Nice to see J have a good episode, even if it will likely be short-lived.

I'm curious about Kellie. Nobody says much about her but she does a lot of introspection. Her confessionals are not about wanting others out (like Kat and Dee) and it's not all about idols and power (like Drew and Austin). Her confessionals are all about her dynamics and where she stands in alliances and who her allies are. She also had a bit to say about how the swap affected her position. I just wish they showed her interactions with people more. That's one thing that Dee has over Kellie at the moment.

Kaleb is currently the season's "golden boy". We're probably supposed to think he wins and is supposed to be the one everyone roots for. But likewise he will be a MASSIVE target in the merge.

And, of course, the hero's journey this season truly is about Emily. Her edit has gotten very good since the shaky start. But, as I have said, she really comes across as an Aubrey/David/Kathy type. They always get close but not quite close enough. It would be refreshing to see her win, but I can't see how that would be possible.

If I had to place winner pics, it would be as follows (based on edit and current position)
1. Austin (but maybe too good of an edit)
2. Drew
3. Kellie
4. Dee
5. Julie

 

[SAV]

Ugh...I hate that it's now OK to quit. It isn't. Play the game. It's not a vacation. You knew that going in. 50K fine if you quit or something like that. If you really can't take it, be a jerk and get voted out.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Kind of a straight forward episode? And I'm always okay with that.

I'm happy to see someone clock the shared extra vote as a useless advantage.

An extra vote almost never makes a difference. A scenario where it does, and three people are in agreement on its' use, is highly unlikely.

That shared advantage exists to start a war amongst three people, reward the winner, and make the show more interesting.

I believe that the two who think they're now in a team with shared goals are delusional, and the one person who sees this as his future advantage has the proper read on how to play this.

 

[PUSH]

I really enjoyed the first half of the episode where we just got camp life, social games, and strategy. It's so refreshing to know where everyone stands and not feel blindsided by votes.

I agree that Austin had the right read. The advantage is useless and only paints a target on you. The sandwich was so much more valuable.

Emily's decision was interesting, but I think it all boiled down to her relationship with Austin. If he wasn't paired with Drew, I think she would have swayed with Brando and Kendra. It's too early to tell if it's the right decision, but we may soon see.

It's an early merge, which can be good or bad. I'm excited to get out of three tribes, though. I didn't notice the previews saying anything about earning the merge, so I'm hoping that stupid idea is gone. But I don't have high hopes.

Aside from getting screwed with mergatory, I think a lot of the women are in good positions. Emily may be in the best. Who's going to come for her? I'm assuming it will be a Reba vs Belo war, so that makes Emily and Kaleb valuable, but Kaleb could also have a target painted on him. It could be interesting because Emily has aligned with some Reba, but Kaleb is trying to get in with Kellie.

I'm all for a Kaleb and Kellie alliance. I think they are two of the best players this season.

Should be an exciting mid-game coming up!

 

[Jedijax719]

I've read in some places where people predict Katurah to make it to the end. Not sure why with the obsession with Bruce being her only story. But spinning it, if she DOES make it to the end, I can see her obsession with Bruce being the thorn in her side that prevents her from winning.

Right now, they are really trying to make it seem like either Drew or Austin are the champions and are the duo to beat. Probably means they are not. Kellie has been pretty low key but is pretty introspective every time she talks. If I were to place bets, I would say that Kellie seems to have the best odds. I think we are made to root for Emily which is interesting that she seems to be tight now with Drew and Austin and already has a bond with Kaleb-those are the 3 "golden boys" right now.

I think when they merge, the dynamics are going to be very interesting and we will see some shake ups.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I've read in some places where people predict Katurah to make it to the end. Not sure why with the obsession with Bruce being her only story. But spinning it, if she DOES make it to the end, I can see her obsession with Bruce being the thorn in her side that prevents her from winning.

Right now, they are really trying to make it seem like either Drew or Austin are the champions and are the duo to beat. Probably means they are not. Kellie has been pretty low key but is pretty introspective every time she talks. If I were to place bets, I would say that Kellie seems to have the best odds. I think we are made to root for Emily which is interesting that she seems to be tight now with Drew and Austin and already has a bond with Kaleb-those are the 3 "golden boys" right now.

I think when they merge, the dynamics are going to be very interesting and we will see some shake ups.

I try not to focus on reading the edit too much because it can be boring if the outcome is clear.

However, I also can't see reading too much into it this season. With the 90 minute episodes they're showing us everything. We saw the dynamics of all three tribes and didn't focus on just the one that ended up at tribal.

They've also, in recent years, focused on stories that were dominant at that point in the game, regardless of how far those characters ended up going.

 

[PUSH]

They've totally mixed up the editing in the new era. It's very hard to predict a winner now.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

If 90 minutes isn't filling the Survivor sized hole in one's heart, Survivor UK has just launched.

No real spoilers but a couple of details I'll mark as such, just in case:

Spoiler: Survivor UK format

Two tribes of nine people each to start. They do a lopsided beginning like we've seen before, where one tribe has a lot of supplies and the other does not.

There is no mention of immunity idols at tribal council or anytime else, so we might be getting a very old school Survivor.

Seems to be a focus on intense physical challenges, similar to Australian Survivor

The production values are notably lower than the US. Probably comparable to South Africa with a similarly small prize, but it doesn't really matter. The challenges are fine and it's all about the characters and gameplay.

The immunity idol is already drawing criticism with Eliza's iconic line being quoted in reference to it.

 

[Smiley/OCD]

I’m going to go out on a limb here…(my DW and DD think I’m nuts), but I have this real funny feeling that Emily is going to continue to fly under the radar and will, at the very least, make it to final 3 and possibly win the whole thing. I’ve watched all but the first 4 seasons or so, and I just think fans and watchers are underestimating her prowess.

Now watch, the newest episode is on in less than 2 hours and she’ll get voted off…lol

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I’m going to go out on a limb here…(my DW and DD think I’m nuts), but I have this real funny feeling that Emily is going to continue to fly under the radar and will, at the very least, make it to final 3 and possibly win the whole thing. I’ve watched all but the first 4 seasons or so, and I just think fans and watchers are underestimating her prowess.

Now watch, the newest episode is on in less than 2 hours and she’ll get voted off…lol

Oh, absolutely. Many people predict we'll see what happened last season, where the stragglers from the losingest tribe fly under the radar for a while while the two dominant tribes go after each other.

I think Kaleb is more likely to win overall, but he will also be seen as a bigger threat so we shall see.

 

[Jedijax719]

Wow, I have to say that has GOT to be some of the absolute WORST gameplay on part of EVERYONE I've seen since a long time. Just plain horrible and inconceivable how badly and, quite frankly, stupidly people played.

Not to put out any true spoilers but "I want to vote that person out because I didn't get a sandwich" is like a preschooler way of playing!

 

[Smiley/OCD]

Whew!!…my guess almost came true…Emily’s name was brought up to be eliminated on the second vote, but J bit the dust…I’m happy for Kaleb that he used his shot and it was good for him…he’s a VERY likable character BUT, I think he’s too much of a threat to win it all. If he does make it to the final 3, I’d definitely consider voting for him. AWESOME episode!!