Surprise! Red Tier Now Begins Sunday; Downtown Disney Restaurants???

[Deleted member 107043]

And I'm OK with that anticipation... so long as it doesn't cause more lackadaisical thinking in people (who are honestly probably already being lax with this) and then we see the downward trend reverse.

Agreed. The surge has been primarily attributed to travel and friend and family gatherings over the holiday season. Now that the season is over and infections are declining my fingers are crossed that things will at least go back to how they were in October for awhile.

 

[TP2000]

For Non-Californians, here is what our betters in Sacramento told us we'd need to do to get out of a Regional Stay-At-Home Order. In short, we'd need to get above 15% ICU Capacity for four (4) consecutive weeks. From December 3rd, about seven weeks ago. Seven whole weeks is apparently a lifetime for a Sacramento bureaucrat.

From the handy-dandy guide linked below...

How does a county get out of the restrictions?​

Regions will have to remain under the stay-at-home order for at least three weeks before being considered to reopen. In order to get out of the restrictions, a county’s projected ICU capacity for the following four weeks must be at or above 15%.

Once a county is no longer under those restrictions, they will return to the state’s tiered system, based on its case and test positivity rates.

Obviously, those rules from early December were changed suddenly less than two months later. ICU Capcity in the SoCal Region continues to track at 0.0% for the past month. It certainly hasn't risen above 15.0%, and it certainly hasn't done that for four consecutive weeks.

But the rules and policies that were rolled out seven weeks ago have all suddenly been thrown out the window. Because, you know, what's a few thousand destroyed small businesses among friend?

Here's What To Know About California's New Regional Stay-At-Home Order

California announced on Dec. 3 a new regional stay-at-home order based on intensive care capacity. Here's a look at what the order covers, how a region or county can trigger or leave it, and what will stay open or close.

www.capradio.org

 

[Mac Tonight]

Agreed. The surge has been primarily attributed to travel and friend and family gatherings over the holiday season. Now the that the season is over and infections are declining my fingers are crossed that things will at least go back to how they were in October for awhile.

I just saw Biden is restricting a bunch of international travel (primarily from South Africa and Western Europe) from all these variants...

Stay well, sir!

 

[TP2000]

If I may just jump in here for a smidge...

I think all TP is asking is why is Newsom removing restrictions now, when the numbers are currently still higher (or worse) than they were when the restrictions were first put in place.

To use a really bad example, it would be like if you had a bunch of people swimming in a pool with 3ft of water. Then suddenly the water level rises to 4ft and someone decided it isn't safe to be in there anymore and everyone needed to get out. The water level kept rising until it got to 6ft, but then started dipping back down... now, the water level is down to 5 1/2 feet and whoever is in charge of the pool has decided that for some reason it's safe to swim again.

Obviously, "the numbers" are trending downwards, but why not wait until they're back to pre-SATO levels before removing the restrictions.

That's my interpretation.

Thank you, my friend!

Perhaps I'm not explaining myself clearly. Or presenting the basic hard facts clearly enough.

Of course, it doesn't help when anyone who dares to disagree with any policy decision from Sacramento is labeled a conspiracy theorist. And what's absolutely hysterical about that one is that I've been a lifelong disbeliever in conspiracies. They just never make much sense. I honestly don't think anyone is organized enough to pull them off.

 

[Tamandua]

I have no idea what you're responding to because I have all these Shut It Downers on ignore, but my point earlier was questioning this exactly. Ignoring the timing politically because I am apolitical, this is Respiratory Virus Season and it looks like cases are worse than ever now according to these Sacramentian Data Models. Loosening restrictions right now is like collecting everyone's life jackets after Titanic has struck the iceberg. Where is the Science and Data to make sense of any of this?

Yeah. The whole projection angle sounds like a justification. Are these projected levels based on the stay at home orders remaining in effect? If not, what are the levels supposed to be after people start going back out? The vaccine is rolling out, but they say it's not very effective until you get the second dose three weeks later... So they can say they expect the levels to be lower in a month, but it flies in the face of logic... And I mean their logic, not mine. I'm of the opinion that these measures haven't been effective at all...

I think we're seeing a drop in cases because of lower test sensitivity and population saturation... If that's the case, admit it.

 

[TP2000]

Perhaps non-Disney owned locations, for Disney owned locations it will be at least 2-3 weeks at a minimum, as even after a decision has been made they have to do the following:

1. Recall the furloughed managers for each area/location
2. Recall the furloughed executive chefs for each area/location
3. Recall the furloughed cast members for foods
4. Restock all locations

I know that the furloughed cast members have to be given a minimum of 7 days notice before resuming work due to agreements with their union. It is unclear if the same requirements applies to the first two, but at bare minimum, they will need 3-4 days to recall the managers. Basically all being told, a minimum of two weeks after a decision has been announced and who knows how long it will take for Disney to make a decision.

Great insight, thank you!

You also have to put yourself into the mind of a business owner. California has changed policy and tactic on this countless times in the last six months. I mean, my gosh, the rules for leaving the Stay-At-Home Order are only seven weeks old! And Sacramento just threw that seven week old rulebook out the window! Poof, it's gone.

How does a business plan for that type of erratic behavior from our elected leaders and their bureaucrat staffs?

What are the rules going to be 4 weeks from now, once all those CM's are brought back from furlough? If the vaccine rollout in California continues to rank among the very bottom of all 50 states, will more restrictions be put in place? If ICU capacity remains at 0.0% for the next three weeks, will we return to a Stay-At-Home Order?

Will the Purple Tier be made more strict? I hope they brand it as Purple+!!!

This type of constantly changing rules and constantly moving goalposts are nearly impossible to plan a business around. I wouldn't blame TDA for holding off just a bit to see if this latest rulebook change actually sticks around longer than two or three weeks.

 

[cmwade77]

Great insight, thank you!

You also have to put yourself into the mind of a business owner. California has changed policy and tactic on this countless times in the last six months. I mean, my gosh, the rules for leaving the Stay-At-Home Order are only seven weeks old! And Sacramento just threw that seven week old rulebook out the window! Poof, it's gone.

How does a business plan for that type of erratic behavior from our elected leaders and their bureaucrat staffs?

What are the rules going to be 4 weeks from now, once all those CM's are brought back from furlough? If the vaccine rollout in California continues to rank among the very bottom of all 50 states, will more restrictions be put in place? If ICU capacity remains at 0.0% for the next three weeks, will we return to a Stay-At-Home Order?

Will the Purple Tier be made more strict? I hope they brand it as Purple+!!!

This type of constantly changing rules and constantly moving goalposts are nearly impossible to plan a business around. I wouldn't blame TDA for holding off just a bit to see if this latest rulebook change actually sticks around longer than two or three weeks.

I agree, I was simply pointing out that Disney owned locations won't be opening this week. There are some at Downtown Disney that are simple, Earl of Sandwich can simply put tables back outside, etc.

 

[Emmanuel]

 

[el_super]

There's really nothing other than political reasons to shift gears right now.

So what... you never thought things were going to get better? You never thought the virus would someday be tackled?

Do you have no concept of time?

I was never in favor of stay at home orders, but I can't make sense of this move even going by their own logic.

The models are showing a decline in case rates. That was actually evident in the other chart I posted from UCI, a couple of days ago. Things are actually getting better.

And yet strangely, people are angry about this? You complained when he closed everything, and now that he's reopening things you complain about that as well.

Stay angry my friends.

 

[el_super]

And obviously (well maybe not so obvious to those here pushing stupid covid conspiracy agendas) a downward trend in infection rates predicts that future hospitalizations will decline as well. Much like officials shut down the state in anticipation of the surge they are now relaxing restrictions in anticipation of things improving. This is really not that hard to grasp.

Additionally, this was all explained back in December, when the regional stay-at-home orders went into effect. And now suddenly it's time to be shocked, pretend this is news, and feign anger all over again.

 

[ayyylmao]

So what... you never thought things were going to get better? You never thought the virus would someday be tackled?

Do you have no concept of time?

Yes, clearly, the virus is tackled. Cope more.

 

[el_super]

Yeah. The whole projection angle sounds like a justification. Are these projected levels based on the stay at home orders remaining in effect? If not, what are the levels supposed to be after people start going back out?

So uh ... you think outdoor dining will cause a spike in COVID cases?

The whole point was to discourage people from meeting with friends and family (esp over the holidays). The numbers are going down a path that they feel, allows for adequate leeway to reopen the economy. The part of the puzzle you seem to be missing here is: they actually did care about reopening the economy and have now done so when it was safe.

Which of course a lot of us have been saying for a long time now.

 

[Jiggsawpuzzle35]

Just left Downtown Disney. People are my munching on pretzels, corn dogs, and Churros. Hope the restaurants open soon.

 

[cmwade77]

So uh ... you think outdoor dining will cause a spike in COVID cases?

The whole point was to discourage people from meeting with friends and family (esp over the holidays). The numbers are going down a path that they feel, allows for adequate leeway to reopen the economy. The part of the puzzle you seem to be missing here is: they actually did care about reopening the economy and have now done so when it was safe.

Which of course a lot of us have been saying for a long time now.

Except for the fact that the timing is extraordinarily suspicious, especially given the current numbers. Shortly after the inauguration and the day after the recall effort announced they have 1.2 million signatures gathered and right after the governor and state was sued and would have to provide proof of the need to close the dining.

Sorry, but by their logic, it doesn't make sense. Personally I think the lockdowns have done far more harm than good, but that's another story.

 

[Tamandua]

So uh ... you think outdoor dining will cause a spike in COVID cases?

The whole point was to discourage people from meeting with friends and family (esp over the holidays). The numbers are going down a path that they feel, allows for adequate leeway to reopen the economy. The part of the puzzle you seem to be missing here is: they actually did care about reopening the economy and have now done so when it was safe.

Which of course a lot of us have been saying for a long time now.

This post is so ridiculous I can only assume it's a joke. I can't believe you are actually arguing that they didn't ban outdoor dining because they said it would increase covid cases. Of course, I don't think outdoor dining made a difference in case levels, but that was absolutely argued by the powers that be to shut it all down.

Except for the fact that the timing is extraordinarily suspicious, especially given the current numbers. Shortly after the inauguration and the day after the recall effort announced they have 1.2 million signatures gathered and right after the governor and state was sued and would have to provide proof of the need to close the dining.

Sorry, but by their logic, it doesn't make sense. Personally I think the lockdowns have done far more harm than good, but that's another story.

He'll never admit it but we all know what's up.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Once again, people get what they want and they are angry about it. The actual circumstances never matter. There is always an excuse because the reasoning doesn’t matter, it’s just about blind politicking.

 

[Deleted member 107043]

Except for the fact that the timing is extraordinarily suspicious, especially given the current numbers.

No, it is not suspicious. They stated from the start the order would be relaxed when the surge waned. In fact the order was extended at least once, on December 29.

Shortly after the inauguration and the day after the recall effort announced they have 1.2 million signatures gathered and right after the governor and state was sued and would have to provide proof of the need to close the dining.

And there it is. The underlying reason for all these fake arguments is in support of efforts to recall the governor. Where are the moderators?

 

[Tamandua]

No, it is not suspicious. They stated from the start the order would be relaxed when the surge waned. In fact the order was extended at least once, on December 29.


And there it is. The underlying reason for all these fake arguments is in support of efforts to recall the governor. Where are the moderators?

I suppose you want everyone to believe that politicians don't make decisions based on political motivations.

 

[cmwade77]

Once again, people get what they want and they are angry about it. The actual circumstances never matter. There is always an excuse because the reasoning doesn’t matter, it’s just about blind politicking.

I am not angry about it, I simply want our elected officials to be truthful and stop lying....well one can hope.

 

[cmwade77]

No, it is not suspicious. They stated from the start the order would be relaxed when the surge waned. In fact the order was extended at least once, on December 29.


And there it is. The underlying reason for all these fake arguments is in support of efforts to recall the governor. Where are the moderators?

I am simply saying the timing is suspicious and indeed it is very much so, we should indeed be questioning it.