Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I saw several reports of a last minute push...though I admit it's not a big research point for me...
If that did happen - however - why would they bother?
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Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Ep 8). SPOILERS. Plot points revealed and discussed.
- Thread starter MisterPenguin
- Start date
I saw several reports of a last minute push...though I admit it's not a big research point for me...
If that did happen - however - why would they bother?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.time.../05/star-wars-the-last-jedi-china/?source=dam
I don't know what "full force of the disney marketing machine" means...maybe...but it doesn't hint that cool hand Mickey is always right - a widely held misbelief
I don't know what "full force of the disney marketing machine" means...maybe...but it doesn't hint that cool hand Mickey is always right - a widely held misbelief
AEfx
Well-Known Member
Well, there is - it is just that they are proving to not care nearly as much about Western culture as we thought they would.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
It’s only the sixth highest grossing movie of all time.
They’re probably on suicide watch at Disney.
Star Wars is clearly a franchise in decline.
Any day now they’ll announce Solo is going straight to Netflix and Episode 9 has been cancelled.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
It's really funny that you actually quoted me in your post and then preceded to completely mis-characterize and exaggerate what I said to ridiculous proportions. Like folks can't read for themselves and see that isn't what I said, whatsoever. It is about Disney reigning in their own expectations.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
What were Disney’s expectations? Unless you work for Disney comments about “expectations” and “break even” numbers are pure speculation.
Ridiculous is suggesting the franchise is on a downward spiral after Rogue One, despite this Film doing better than that one.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
Um, I'm not making this stuff up. Go read some industry articles about it - it isn't "pure" speculation. It is based on Disney's own statements, corporate reports, and well-known industry standards.
For example, the "break even" number is really rather easy to deduce. We know the percentage of box office gross Disney takes in (which actually was big news in and of itself here), we know the approximate budget of the actual production, and how much has been spent on promotion - you realize, that analysts have entire jobs revolving around figuring this stuff out. They know how much a television ad costs to broadcast, and have the data regarding how many have been shown, etc.
It is far more than "pure speculation".
Huh? Yeah, if it hadn't, then it would have been considered a total flop. You are way over-simplifying this and comparing apples to oranges.
I'm guessing if you are making that comparison, you don't follow this stuff that closely - because there are two types of films Disney is making with Star Wars. The Sequel Trilogy (Episodes VII, VIII, and IX) and then the "anthology" films (Rogue One, Solo). The expectations are vastly different for both.
TLJ compared to TFA doesn't appear to have the legs that TFA did. Some of this can be written away as "pent up demand" for TFA, but it is looking it is going to fall significantly shorter than it. And those old tropes of "sequels never do as well as the original" (including the absurd comparisons to ESB, LOL, which might as well be taught in ancient history at this point because that situation is so far removed from modern Hollywood) just isn't true anymore, either (as Marvel well-proves several times over). In this case, no one realistically could have expected TLJ to out-gross TFA, but if it really lands in the $1.3B range as it's looking right now, that's a big difference that can't just be written away.
And then you have Rogue One. Which exceeded expectations. It was never supposed to gross what a numbered film was going to. The next film to compare that to will be Solo. And while what happens with Solo really is just speculation at this point, looking at the evidence so far - it isn't pointing in the direction one would hope. It has the most troubled production history of any modern franchise film, the costs ballooned because of it, and we are five months out and Disney hasn't even produced a poster, let alone a trailer. It is also really questionable in terms of timing and content, but that's a larger subject better gone into elsewhere. We may be surprised, who knows. But it would have to be one heck of a shocker.
In any case, yes, certainly, TLJ out-grossed Rogue One. But if it ends up being closer to Rogue One ($1B) grosses than TFA grosses ($2B) as it is looking, again - no one at Disney is doing cartwheels in the office over that. Especially since they spent way more marketing TLJ than they did Rogue One.
It is being a bit dramatic to say "downward spiral", and Star Wars isn't going anywhere. It still was a great investment for Disney. However, we have likely seen the up-end of it, at least for the time being.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The net effect is the same...the idea that anyone stateside cares about the "global community" is a myth from the 90's to cover outsourcing...
If ANYTHING is evident in this day and age - it's that. Check twitter.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
No one ever even hinted they thought there was...what is the point of trying to make an argument with ridiculous level of exaggeration?
Some can use the English language for literary effect to cause enjoyment...not all.
I think the point (I know it's mine but can't be sure of others) is does this movie come in below expectations? And not ranking charts with age of ultron and Jurassic world on it.
The thing...the whole thing...about Star was is it's different. You know who has promoted that relentlessly for 5 years? Right...disney.
You can't turn that off and on.
I don't know what they honestly expected...but I can guarantee after working for a large entertainment company that they are gonna come in on the lower range of their internal projections.
Problem? Maybe...maybe not so much...it's hard to see where it goes. But this is far from
Best case scenario for disney. The thing to watch is whether other moves come after to fill out the puzzle. Does rian Johnson get a billion dollars to make movies unchecked with schtick? I say no...but time will tell.
Do we get more anthologies? Less? Do they shift to streaming episodic stuff like Star Trek or game of thrones?
Is kennedy on watch? Who knows but not exactly a bonkers thing to consider...
Evaluate things for what they are...and I'm not off the grid here.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The idea that Disney doesn't have internal target numbers...or that talk around Hollywood can't determine a reasonable approximate range of it by those who are experienced...
...is just devoid of reason.
It's like saying that the management of parks Wants to build new rides for us...just not a legitimate thought process.
fractal
Well-Known Member
Well, Bloomberg is reporting they marketed vigorously knowing how important succes in China is...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...t-whether-the-force-has-awakened-yet-in-china
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
And it's been explained many times why it's completely unreasonable to expect TLJ to match the box office of TFA.
Disney isn't ignorant enough to think that every Star Wars movie is going to do as well as something that was a very unique phenomenon.
The spin by disgruntled fanatics, that this movie's performance is some sort of disappointment or red flag, is transparent and ridiculous.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
So did forbes
Travel Junkie
Well-Known Member
Disney absolutely pulled out all the stops for TFA in China. It had a great opening and then fell off pretty quickly. TFA was disappointing overall based on how much Disney pumped into promoting it in China. Rogue One was a steep decline from TFA and TLJ will be worse than Rogue One. It's trending the wrong direction which is indicative of an IP problem over an individual movie problem.
There is no way to sugarcoat TLJ's performance in China however. I would not be surprised if we saw storylines and characters in future movies that will try to create appeal to Chinese audiences. It has worked for other franchises.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Again...I didn't claim any of what your brow beating addresses. It's speculation...Apparently down in the box seats.
I do love when "disgruntled fanatics l" are personally attacked - unprovoked - by comments that typically come from what I have always referred to as "lanyard wearers".
I'm seeing nothing but love/excuses for disney in these defenses...because they lack a sense of context.
Even the "empire fell off 30%" is completely invalid because of the reality of entertainment, culture and impact between 1977 and 1980. It doesn't equate. Every tentpole now shoots for more...and though they seldom reach it...they aren't "happy" with diminishing returns. But that's all fancy financial economical sortsa stuff...
Let's agree to disagree...are we done with the personal nonsense?
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
They already do that...and it's not good. Rogue one pulled out the stops...had known actors and a pretty good character development...and it still fell flat.
Star Wars is a "NATO thing"...check the box office receipts (mojo) for jedi, the prequels, and the last thing and you'll see a pattern.
Actually...TLJ is not fairing well in some of that NATO block...Japan is disturbing.
SJN1279
Well-Known Member
Jumanji and Insidious will beat Star Wars this weekend. The Last Jedi wasn't a good Star Wars movie, and has become a disappointment to Disney. Its failure in #2 worldwide market of China, after they held a premiere there, must be devastating to good old Ms. Kennedy.
A lot of pressure on JJ to right this leaking boat.
A lot of pressure on JJ to right this leaking boat.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The movie made $6.5 yesterday...which is way below what it needs to get to a mere 30% drop off from TAA...that's bad anyway you slice it
It has flatlined. Maybe there is some fire behind the smoke, huh?
It has flatlined. Maybe there is some fire behind the smoke, huh?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ord-biggest-ever-sequel-to-sequel-plunge/amp/
No need for anything to be said...it is what it is.
No need for anything to be said...it is what it is.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
I think they tried that with Rogue One, and it didn't work all that well, as we now know. Several of the actors were Chinese movie stars, if I understand correctly. I actually think they are going to pull back on that, not keep on pushing it - because the money just isn't there in the way they thought.
To be honest, that is why I think it's more than just a Star Wars problem. Reading the pundits (even at "reputable" business sites) kind of poo-pooing the significance of TLJ's performance with the "well, SW was never big in China" thing is really...odd to me. Yes, traditionally it wasn't as popular, but then you have TFA to use as a barometer. And from the accounts I have seen thus far, they pushed TLJ just as hard if not harder than they did TFA in China. So the excuse doesn't make much sense, since the drop off from TFA to TLJ is so severe, and doesn't have any of the excuses it might elsewhere (nostalgia boost for the last film, etc).
While some would say "oh, they are just kissing Disney's behind..." by trying to diminish the significance of the Chinese performance, I don't think it's really that - it's much deeper (and more self-serving). These same pundits have been the ones for several years now proclaiming that China is the future of Hollywood - that somehow they were the solution to the mess Hollywood is in (more movies lose money or break even than make money, it's just that the biggest movies make a lot of money to "make up" for it, which is why things are they way they are).
Basically, Western media assumed that China was just sitting there ready to scoff up our product, much like the rest of the world has. I think we are going to find out that was mistaken, for two reasons. One, culturally, of course - while in the Western world we think everyone in a country that has been ruled like China is just itching for the values of capitalism, democracy, etc. - that's just not always the case.
Two, they severely underestimated China's own ability to produce films. Lots of countries make their own films, but let's face it - American/Western cinema rules in almost all cases. In fact, many countries have to have specific rules and limitations on our films playing there versus domestic films because people in so many places are so hungry for our content that they artificially keep the local films afloat as best they can. In China, they have the money and infrastructure to actually compete, and obviously can cater the films directly to their intended audience.
Wanna know something funny? The film that is totally trouncing TLJ right now, the romantic comedy "The Ex-Files 3", is subtitled, "Return of the Exes". And the last one was, "The Ex-Files 2: The Backup Strikes Back". I mean...come on - if scheduling the third film to be released the week before TLJ wasn't an intentional middle finger to Hollywood, it is a striking coincidence.