Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[HenryMystic]

When you start talking billions, no matter what number you out in front of it, it's ridiculous.

 

[fbp]

When you start talking billions, no matter what number you out in front of it, it's ridiculous.

Pretty much.

The difference between one and three billions dollars in the consideration of one hundred percent of people (statistically speaking) is about as significant as the difference between one and three cents.

 

[doctornick]

very true. but even at peak times, you can usually book SSR no matter what. especially if you're doing it 180 days on the nose first thing in the AM.

Just to be clear, the window for non-home resort bookings opens at 7 months out, not 6 months. So, if you were looking to book at SSR at 6 months before the travel date, everyone in the DVC had a crack at those rooms for a month already prior to that point.

 

[thehowiet]

I'm sorry - but this type of 'what I really meant' talk has been NO WHERE to be found at all... until @Tim_4 started challenging the status quo here. This is all too convenient now.. The image projected for the last 6+ months has been of runaway spend... not 'updated projections'.

I would consider already exceeding the original budget while they are still in the test phase with an updated projection of being 1 billion over budget by the time the project is complete to be runaway spending.

 

[Funmeister]

Uh no... the point model does not guarantee availability within a set time. Breakage or not, not everyone can use their points at the same time... they must be distributed across the year.

Just curious which post you are replying to? I saw you replied to "my" post about points....but....I did not write that post.

Not sure how my screen name is attached to a post I didn't write....but....

 

[Sue_Vongello]

Speaking just for myself...
I have been basing my opinions and discussion on what I'm hearing the likely final total is likely to be, which is well over $2bill.

Nitpicking it down to current spend, original budget, new budget...is just that. Nitpicking.

Is it accurate to say the budget was approx $1.3b? Yes, though that number is really no longer relevant.

Is it accurate to say they are spending over $2b?, and that the spending is out if hand? Yes.

Internally, they are looking far more at the total, higher number than at the original budget which is somewhat irrelevant now.

Yea ... can't we all just agree that whatever they spent is WAY TOO MUCH? Now let's move on ...

 

[MattM]

I'm sorry - but this type of 'what I really meant' talk has been NO WHERE to be found at all... until @Tim_4 started challenging the status quo here. This is all too convenient now.. The image projected for the last 6+ months has been of runaway spend... not 'updated projections'.

To the point about 'depends on who you ask..' - I always take such relayed information with a grain of salt when you don't know the accuracy of the source. Are you relaying watercooler talk? Or are you relaying info from someone actively engaged in the project management of it?

It AMAZES me how everyone seems to forget that rumors, exaggeration, motives, and hearsay exist INSIDE companies too when they listen to people relay 'inside' info.

Fantastic posts.

 

[WDWDad13]

Yea ... can't we all just agree that whatever they spent is WAY TOO MUCH? Now let's move on ...

your avatar cracks me up! lol

 

[GoofGoof]

It is a "deed" in name only. When the DVC fist started some buyers were concerned because they did not get a deed with their property purchase. Disney immediately recognized the problem and worked out a deal with county to create and record the DVC "deeds".

Disney is great at creating fictional things and convincing people to suspend their normal beliefs for the sake of magic!

A deed is a deed. Not sure how a deed in name only would be any different. The original poster said that DVC owners don't actually own anything so they are not covered by timeshare law. This isn't true. There is a deed filed with the county just like a traditional timeshare. It is covered under timeshare law.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I'd give you 3 billion likes for your well-reasoned response, but the like button stops at 2.8 billion.

<grins mischievously>

Close enough!!!!

 

[Sue_Vongello]

your avatar cracks me up! lol

That's ME! Don't laugh at me!

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah, and to '74's point...they never do that.
Why is NGE being handled so differently?

So basically there is still time for TDO to value engineer the rest of this project. Cut back on interactive elements, eliminate some perks. When you are in line instead of interactive elements referring to you by name it will just trigger a strobe light.

In all seriousness how much more is there to spend on? If this thing goes live in the next 6 months most of the physical assets are paid for. What are they going to spend another billion on? 6 months worth of consultants for $1B works out to $5.5M per day. Even at $200 per hour that works out to 3 to 4 thousand consultants. Are there really that many people working on this? What the heck are they all doing exactly? This whole thing makes my head hurt.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Yeah, and to '74's point...they never do that.
Why is NGE being handled so differently?

My thought would be because they didn't have enough knowledge of how they get to where they want with this so they couldn't make even a guess at what it will eventually cost. They've never done this, no one has, they think hoped that it will stay within 1.3 Billion, but when the go ahead was given they didn't know. They didn't want to go above that but were open to an argument in the event it was necessary. Someone nailed it when they said that THEY CANNOT FAIL with this project. They have to keep financing it until it works or they go broke, whichever comes first. Once they get it working then the cost will be split across all of Disney Parks which, btw, will have no choice but to use it and it becomes more financially doable when all share. For all we know they are already accounting for it in that way. That would make all the argument for how only WDW is taking on that cost seem unlikely if not genuinely unrealistic.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I actually have a deed for the real estate interest at Boardwalk Villas.

But do you also have the deed for park place?

In short :

DVC - overpriced.

NextGen - doesn't work.

I had a better meal on South Street than any QSR food in Orlando.

Also, did I disappoint my Disney obsessed stalker by leaving town for a few days?

 

[Goofyernmost]

did I disappoint my Disney obsessed stalker by leaving town for a few days?

Any stalker worth his/her/its salt would have known where you were and would have followed you. Must have been a Value Stalker.

 

[Goofyernmost]

That's ME! Don't laugh at me!

You are a looker! I'm sure you have many admirers.

 

[njDizFan]

Agreed. I recently bought a small add on contract at the Wilderness lodge. I purchased it for $64.00 a point.
I read somewhere that resale has recently trended sharply upward so I decided to see what the average WL points were going for.

$80.00-$84.00

It was a quick look and the price per point varies in accordance with the contract being purchased but this is one of the big differences with DVC in comparison to your average time share.

On a side note the contract was about $2K and $170.03 a year in dues. This gets me 2 nights a year at below the price point of an on site value motel. Not to mention equity (right now) and a guaranteed buyer (Disney) if I need to pull the rip-cord.


That's a win. I am aware that I shelled out 2K but with the savings per night approaching $200.00 and always rising I will recoup the original investment in short order.

eh not bad I guess. That about 31-32 points. which will get you 2 nights at a studio during the week(except premier season). So that's $85/night plus the $2000 divided over 40 years ($50). So in essence you are paying about $135 a night to stay in a studio apartment. Major win...not really but it's okay.

 

[Clever Name]

Your post is fiction. It is a timeshare with a membership. It is a confusing morass of affiliate companies , but it is a timeshare. Nothing magical about it. The rules are clear that the membership can end at any time, leaving you with only the right to book your points at your home resort.
The way folks twist DVC around here makes me curious as to what other facts get twisted out of control.

It's a "vacation club". It is not a traditional timeshare. With the DVC you are leasing the time for a specified period (i.e. 40+ years) and then it ends. You own no real estate interest. Once the contract expires it is done and you own nothing.

A deed is a deed. Not sure how a deed in name only would be any different. The original poster said that DVC owners don't actually own anything so they are not covered by timeshare law. This isn't true. There is a deed filed with the county just like a traditional timeshare. It is covered under timeshare law.

Your "deed" is solely dependent upon your contract with Disney. Your "deed" can (and will) expire according to the terms of the Disney contract. You have no real estate interest.

Let me explain this another way. You most likely have heard the term "fee simple title". If you posses fee simple title of something then you own it. The definition of fee simple is an estate of indefinite duration. With the DVC you don't own any real property. You're leasing a very expensive future time block in a vacation club.

As I mentioned before, shortly after the DVC first started selling memberships (please remember it's a club) some members were worried because they didn't get a deed with their purchase as did conventional timeshare owners. Disney fixed that in a flash and got the county to issue and record DVC deeds. You still have no fee simple title. You have a leasehold and it has a limited duration. Traditional conventional timeshares are not of limited duration.

 

[NoChesterHester]

So... Thread Recap:

#1 - Nextgen Guest Tracking - Included... to what degree and level??? And why????
#2 - Nextgen Cost = expensive enough to delay other development. Why is Disney allowing it to keep ballooning without putting the stop to it?
#3 - Nextgen Deployment - lots o' problems... delayed... costing more and taking longer than anticipated.
#4 - Future Park Expansions - happening... but delayed per #2 above. This alone should get everyone on here pretty upset being a "news and rumors board" based on new stuff to do.

I'll let ya'll go round and round debating for another 100 pages and check back in to see if @WDW1974 or @Lee or @Tim_4 drops any more info.

 

[George]

That's ME! Don't laugh at me!

So who was the woman that looked like she was a shoe-in to be cast ask a butt kicking action movie star that used to grace the little square next to your posts? (I would note that the action movie star in question was hot, but my wife might see this, so I'll parenthetically note it because that makes it invisible).