Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[Joe]

Just to clarify, timeshares are heavily regulated, but DVC isn't timeshare. DVC members don't legally own anything at WDW. It's strictly a fancy vacation contract, which gives Disney a lot more leeway.

I actually have a deed for the real estate interest at Boardwalk Villas.

 

[TP2000]

All I can say is informed person(s) told me its heading towards 2.8 total and expected to rise. No arguments, no bluffing.

Wait... 2.8 Billion Dollars for NGE stuff at WDW? Seriously?

No, I mean it, are you being serious?

 

[Bolna]

Could the low availability at DVC this year be caused by last year's AP discount for DVCers? A lot of people trying to get two large trips into the time their AP is valid and therefore more borrowing going on than usually?

 

[WDWDad13]

Could the low availability at DVC this year be caused by last year's AP discount for DVCers? A lot of people trying to get two large trips into the time their AP is valid and therefore more borrowing going on than usually?

Ah that's another thing. Very possible. I took advantage of that deal too

 

[WDWDad13]

Wait... 2.8 Billion Dollars for NGE stuff at WDW? Seriously?

No, I mean it, are you being serious?

No $2.8 mil. allegidly for Disney parks and resorts. Wdw is the initial park for it

And that still sounds ridiculously high. Might be numbers are going up rumored inside Disney as well. Who knows. One thing is clear however if its that far out and they haven't deliberately made a ton of changes to it along to way and knew these costs would ensue then heads should role

 

[WDWDad13]

I tell you what....All this DVC talk.....it might as well be Flynni talking tech. Is there a Rosetta Stone program for DVC? Anyway....I know one thing. If I paid all that money and was 11 months out and couldn't get a room at my home resort....I would be 74 mad! Even if there is no monkey business with occupancy, it still does not smell right. So what you are saying is that DVC can sell the rooms to a cash ressie but cant do it the other way around? or they don't want to do it the other way around? ie. sell a cash room to DVC?

Sure you DVCers might have a clear picture of this but if I am in a presentation and I ask about it....they start giving me the explanation given here. I am running out of the room. I have a question.... a serious....honest question. What is the hook? What is the best reason you could give for owning DVC? I just don't see it.

In no particular order
- Florida rates on annual passes
- being able to stay in deluxe resorts more easily and affordable for many years to come
etc

 

[alissafalco]

FWIW, WDW1974 did like my post where I suggested Star Trek as a possibility....

And it wouldn't be the first time having Star Trek in a Universal Park, as they had that Star Trek show in Cali in the past -- where audience members were part of a film spliced with members from the original series. I don't think that was ever in Orlando, was it?

Yes it was in Orlando. I did it wit my family some 20+ years ago when I was a teenager.

 

[WDWDad13]

Maintnence fees are more expensive than a value resort.

No go for these cheap folks that love 2.5 week vacations over squeezing in 5-6 days.

No they aren't....well it also depends on your home resort and how many points you own

 

[JimboJones123]

No they aren't....well it also depends on your home resort and how many points you own

$1000 in fees a year can get you a lot of nights in the offseason at Pop.

If you ate somebody that "needs" to stay deluxe to enjoy a Disney vacation, DVC is for you. Besides, gotta save somewhere on those rooms that cost more than 2x what they are worth at deluxe resorts.

Plus, if I am going to spend $100 or more a night, they darn well better make my bed and take out my trash daily.

 

[PeterAlt]

I want to know what Michael Eisner has to say about NextGen and the curent state of the (Florida) parks. Would he approve? Or would be say this would never have happened under his watch?

 

[PeterAlt]

RFID door locks...
Touch to pay Point of Sale Terminals everywhere...
New web infrastructure and sites...
New mobile applications...
Online wait times...
All the related infrastructure changes to support integrated customer info into ADR, FP, and resort systems
Field mobile applications and terminals for cast members...
Wifi across all the parks...

All of those do not hinge on bands... the bands are just one token for these systems. The bands are really the keystone for the location and customer modeling portion of the project.

Is there WiFi on the buses, boats, and monorails?

 

[Longhairbear]

Could the low availability at DVC this year be caused by last year's AP discount for DVCers? A lot of people trying to get two large trips into the time their AP is valid and therefore more borrowing going on than usually?

I am really starting to believe that I am not the only DVC member not returning to WDW given the huge AP discount. Now they offer a fixed week at the GF? That fixed week was aimed at the Japan Golden Week market for Aulani initially. I'm thinking the erosion of regulars to WDW via DVC is starting to become apparent.

 

[PeterAlt]

First, there are only 4 posters left on the entirety of this site and you are the only remaining "independent" poster. Everyone else has been banned.



I'd like see an argument about how anyone is hurting this site. The thing that makes this site interesting (and always has) is that it is a gathering of serious fans with a sprinkling of in the know insiders all of whom have different opinions. We (and Mr. 74 is a big part of this we) make the site. All other WDW message boards and sites reek of comparative lameness (disclosure: @wdwmagic offered me a free vacation to the Disney destination of my choice if I overtly complimented the site once a day for a week. At least, that was my understanding of our imaginary conversation).

You're forgetting serious posters like myself have real issues, such as monorail expansion, renegotiating the Marvel deal, Iger not taking Comcast's declaration of war seriously, Carrie Fisher's weight loss program, and so on... These are real issues to beat the drum and march to!

 

[WDWDad13]

$1000 in fees a year can get you a lot of nights in the offseason at Pop.

If you ate somebody that "needs" to stay deluxe to enjoy a Disney vacation, DVC is for you. Besides, gotta save somewhere on those rooms that cost more than 2x what they are worth at deluxe resorts.

Plus, if I am going to spend $100 or more a night, they darn well better make my bed and take out my trash daily.

if you're paying 1000 in fees a year (I'm paying much less for enough points to get 2 trips a year) you're going to be able to get 2 maybe 3 trips a year (studios) from that

DVC is like renting a condo from someone...no daily housekeeping service. I actually like it (more home away from home) plus you don't have to worry about the housekeepers stealing from your safe like at All Stars

 

[Darth Sidious]

No $2.8 mil. allegidly for Disney parks and resorts. Wdw is the initial park for it

And that still sounds ridiculously high. Might be numbers are going up rumored inside Disney as well. Who knows. One thing is clear however if its that far out and they haven't deliberately made a ton of changes to it along to way and knew these costs would ensue then heads should role

No it's billions with a B. With 2.8 Million Disney would only be able to install new signage across parks or do some minor maintenance.

Not sure if you just made a typo or I misunderstood what you meant but NGE is certainly in the billions. I mean it's initial budget was in the 1 billion ballpark.

 

[Lee]

Ok, time to use some post history to clear the air.

to the points @Tim_4 was trying to correct.. the $3billion NGE stuff is not something detractors made up. It's stuff posters have extrapolated from the NGE budget is out of control picture that has been painted here repeatedly by our resident insiders. We get the parroting and people putting their own spin on something and it gets out of control.

I'm not going to spend any time trying to find when the trend started, but the idea the budget was long past and no end in sight has been prompted by wdw1974 many times...







So at this point.. it's commonly referred to the project being well over budget and even 2+ billion dollars.

So how about 3 Billion? Well, there we can't point the finger at wdw1974... that was fueled by @marni1971



Then..


Then just 4 days later he says its 2.8 billion... it doesn't take much for people to see that sort of trajectory and then extrapolate to 3 billion for their own version of the tale...





Adding fuel to that fire.. we even flirt with the '3' number...





Now.. in wdw1974's defense.. back at the beginning of the month when all this talk went from sub 2 billion to all of a sudden talking about near 3 billion as if it were common knowledge... wdw1974 did do his part to try to temper that.





So there you have it. These claims @Tim_4 was trying to debunk were not fictitious.. just some minor details lost in where they originated I'm glad that conversation was brought up tho.. as I had a real hard time following these posts back from the beginning of the month were all of a sudden the spend #s are rising by hundreds of millions of dollars a day.

I greatly appreciate the information @marni1971 brings to the forum and his incredible videos - but this conversation can't be had without naming names where this notion was shared with the forum. Maybe it came from others as well.. but he was the most credible guy on the forum repeating these numbers leading credence to the claims.

Just to touch on this briefly...
There has obviously been a lot of confusion about the budget. Much of that stems from the way internal sources all seem to put a slightly different spin on it. I've had well two placed people recently give me numbers a billion dollars apart. Obviously I had to start asking questions, and it appears that the discrepancies stem from the confusion between "spent" and "gonna spend."

The current spend, the amount of money spent as of now, has just exceeded the initial budget of around $1.3 billion.
That's bad, but...eh...tolerable, relatively speaking.

But...estimates (from the same sources) are now showing that the current forecast is putting the final outlay, just for WDW, at about a billion more. $2.3 billion, minimum. Not including Anaheim or Paris.

So if someone puts a number on it of over $2bil, like Martin did, that is the current estimated final spend, not what is already spent. (I'm not trying to speak for the distinguished Mr. smith, of course, but I think he'll agree.)

 

[WDWDad13]

No it's billions with a B. With 2.8 Million Disney would only be able to install new signage across parks or do some minor maintenance.

Not sure if you just made a typo or I misunderstood what you meant but NGE is certainly in the billions. I mean it's initial budget was in the 1 billion ballpark.

that was a typo... thanks for catching that

 

[WDWDad13]

Just to touch on this briefly...
There has obviously been a lot of confusion about the budget. Much of that stems from the way internal sources all seem to put a slightly different spin on it. I've had well two placed people recently give me numbers a billion dollars apart. Obviously I had to start asking questions, and it appears that the discrepancies stem from the confusion between "spent" and "gonna spend."

The current spend, the amount of money spent as of now, has just exceeded the initial budget of around $1.3 billion.
That's bad, but...eh...tolerable, relatively speaking.

But...estimates (from the same sources) are now showing that the current forecast is putting the final outlay, just for WDW, at about a billion more. $2.3 billion, minimum. Not including Anaheim or Paris.

So if someone puts a number on it of over $2bil, like Martin did, that is the current estimated final spend, not what is already spent. (I'm not trying to speak for the distinguished Mr. smith, of course, but I think he'll agree.)

thanks for clearing that up... overrun on a project is not rare... but doubling the initial estimate, especially playing in the billion areas is unreal

 

[Lee]

thanks for clearing that up... overrun on a project is not rare... but doubling the initial estimate, especially playing in the billion areas is unreal

Hence a lot of the outrage around here.

Honestly, I'm not entirely convinced that actually is an overrun. Possibility they budgeted 1.3 with the attitude of "Let's see how far that gets us," knowing all along it would end up much higher.

Who knows...

 

[WDWDad13]

Hence a lot of the outrage around here.

Honestly, I'm not entirely convinced that actually is an overrun. Possibility they budgeted 1.3 with the attitude of "Let's see how far that gets us," knowing all along it would end up much higher.

Who knows...

lol yeah maybe so... sounds like the upper management basically said "ok let's do this...and here's a blank check"

always a good idea, especially when they celebrate each milestone with a $100k celebration or gift haha