Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[lazyboy97o]

Hence a lot of the outrage around here.

Honestly, I'm not entirely convinced that actually is an overrun. Possibility they budgeted 1.3 with the attitude of "Let's see how far that gets us," knowing all along it would end up much higher.

Who knows...

The old Robert Moses strategy. It caught up with him in the 1960s when even Walt Disney was not enough to save him.

 

[Lee]

lol yeah maybe so... sounds like the upper management basically said "ok let's do this...and here's a blank check"

Yeah, and to '74's point...they never do that.
Why is NGE being handled so differently?

 

[Pentacat]

Just to touch on this briefly...
There has obviously been a lot of confusion about the budget. Much of that stems from the way internal sources all seem to put a slightly different spin on it. I've had well two placed people recently give me numbers a billion dollars apart. Obviously I had to start asking questions, and it appears that the discrepancies stem from the confusion between "spent" and "gonna spend."

The current spend, the amount of money spent as of now, has just exceeded the initial budget of around $1.3 billion.
That's bad, but...eh...tolerable, relatively speaking.

But...estimates (from the same sources) are now showing that the current forecast is putting the final outlay, just for WDW, at about a billion more. $2.3 billion, minimum. Not including Anaheim or Paris.

So if someone puts a number on it of over $2bil, like Martin did, that is the current estimated final spend, not what is already spent. (I'm not trying to speak for the distinguished Mr. smith, of course, but I think he'll agree.)

Just some perspective on Nextgen. All in (once it migrates to other parks outside of WDW) the cost of Nextgen will equal or supersede the cost to build an entire theme park. I find it hard to believe that they will derive as much revenue OR an equal amount in cost savings as would have been generated by another park regardless of its location.

 

[WDWDad13]

Yeah, and to '74's point...they never do that.
Why is NGE being handled so differently?

maybe because they want this to be the new future of Disney theme park experiences and it HAS to be successful? lol no idea

I'm actually optimistic about it long term... I just hope the work out all the bug/kinks before we all use it

 

[Thessair]

Hey look, the Magic Band can be used on the Disney Infinity portal to unlock the Fantasyland Dragon for the Toy Box. It's a potpourri of marketing gimmicks!

The narration voice in that video sounds awfully familiar. Is it in the Parks somewhere?

 

[George]

No, you own for the life of the contract. Resales do offer decent value unlike many timeshares that are worth a penny. Or, you could stop paying the mortgage or member dues and let them repossess it.

The ability to sell for a reasonable amount and the ease of renting points were big factors in my decision. Also, I bought the points resale when they were subject to the exact same rules as points bought new. This lowered my up front costs to a point where things were reasonable. Further, I bought everything up front so no financing was involved which further lowered the cost.

 

[danlb_2000]

Your post is fiction. It is a timeshare with a membership. It is a confusing morass of affiliate companies , but it is a timeshare. Nothing magical about it. The rules are clear that the membership can end at any time, leaving you with only the right to book your points at your home resort.

The way folks twist DVC around here makes me curious as to what other facts get twisted out of control.

The deed part is true:

http://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagl....pdf?id=DOC1244S10346.A0&parent=DOC1244S10346

 

[George]

Yeah, and to '74's point...they never do that.
Why is NGE being handled so differently?

The insatiable demand of the theme park goer for electronic reservations they can look up and festive wrist wear.

 

[Nemo14]

I really can't comprehend financing DVC points, given the extremely high rates. It seems to me that unless you can pay upfront for points, you are really wasting a lot of money.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I really can't comprehend financing DVC points, given the extremely high rates. It seems to me that unless you can pay upfront for points, you are really wasting a lot of money.

Magic is worth a lifetime of swimming in debt.

 

[Lee]

The insatiable demand of the theme park goer for electronic reservations they can look up and festive wrist wear.

Sounds 'bout right.

 

[flynnibus]

Just to touch on this briefly...
There has obviously been a lot of confusion about the budget. Much of that stems from the way internal sources all seem to put a slightly different spin on it. I've had well two placed people recently give me numbers a billion dollars apart. Obviously I had to start asking questions, and it appears that the discrepancies stem from the confusion between "spent" and "gonna spend."
The current spend, the amount of money spent as of now, has just exceeded the initial budget of around $1.3 billion.
That's bad, but...eh...tolerable, relatively speaking.

I'm sorry - but this type of 'what I really meant' talk has been NO WHERE to be found at all... until @Tim_4 started challenging the status quo here. This is all too convenient now.. The image projected for the last 6+ months has been of runaway spend... not 'updated projections'.

To the point about 'depends on who you ask..' - I always take such relayed information with a grain of salt when you don't know the accuracy of the source. Are you relaying watercooler talk? Or are you relaying info from someone actively engaged in the project management of it?

It AMAZES me how everyone seems to forget that rumors, exaggeration, motives, and hearsay exist INSIDE companies too when they listen to people relay 'inside' info.

 

[willtravel]

I really can't comprehend financing DVC points, given the extremely high rates. It seems to me that unless you can pay upfront for points, you are really wasting a lot of money.

Kinda like charging on a major credit card, then not paying it off, but collect the reward points.

 

[Nemo14]

Kinda like charging on a major credit card, then not paying it off, but collect the reward points.

Exactly! You've met my in-laws I take it?

 

[baymenxpac]

I really can't comprehend financing DVC points, given the extremely high rates. It seems to me that unless you can pay upfront for points, you are really wasting a lot of money.

i'll go one further: unless you invested in DVC before the turn of the century, you're in a losing proposition.

i know a dude that bought BLT and aulani points and is ready to plunk down more cash for GF points. WHAAAA?! why?! that's just addictive spending. other than essentially collecting disney status, what does any of that do for you?

why i love our DVC is because we've had it for 20 years (that includes 7 years of free -- yes, free -- park passes. when the parks were maintained at state-of-the-art level, there truly was nothing better. now, i can experience WDW the a la carte way (like most rubes would prefer to order from their favorite premium dining locale): a day or two at MK here, a dinner there, a UNI day, an IOA day, etc.

anecdotal aside: we tried to book two rooms at saratoga for the weekend after thanksgiving at exactly 6 months out. wait listed for one of the nights. even over the holiday, that shocks me.

 

[Lee]

I'm sorry - but this type of 'what I really meant' talk has been NO WHERE to be found at all... until @Tim_4 started challenging the status quo here. This is all too convenient now.. The image projected for the last 6+ months has been of runaway spend... not 'updated projections'.

To the point about 'depends on who you ask..' - I always take such relayed information with a grain of salt when you don't know the accuracy of the source. Are you relaying watercooler talk? Or are you relaying info from someone actively engaged in the project management of it?

It AMAZES me how everyone seems to forget that rumors, exaggeration, motives, and hearsay exist INSIDE companies too when they listen to people relay 'inside' info.

Speaking just for myself...
I have been basing my opinions and discussion on what I'm hearing the likely final total is likely to be, which is well over $2bill.

Nitpicking it down to current spend, original budget, new budget...is just that. Nitpicking.

Is it accurate to say the budget was approx $1.3b? Yes, though that number is really no longer relevant.

Is it accurate to say they are spending over $2b?, and that the spending is out if hand? Yes.

Internally, they are looking far more at the total, higher number than at the original budget which is somewhat irrelevant now.

 

[Nemo14]

i'll go one further: unless you invested in DVC before the turn of the century, you're in a losing proposition.

i know a dude that bought BLT and aulani points and is ready to plunk down more cash for GF points. WHAAAA?! why?! that's just addictive spending. other than essentially collecting disney status, what does any of that do for you?

why i love our DVC is because we've had it for 20 years (that includes 7 years of free -- yes, free -- park passes. when the parks were maintained at state-of-the-art level, there truly was nothing better. now, i can experience WDW the a la carte way (like most rubes would prefer to order from their favorite premium dining locale): a day or two at MK here, a dinner there, a UNI day, an IOA day, etc.

anecdotal aside: we tried to book two rooms at saratoga for the weekend after thanksgiving at exactly 6 months out. wait listed for one of the nights. even over the holiday, that shocks me.

My daughter's in-laws have DVC at 3 different places, and just purchased more so that each of the 3 kids gets some ridiculous amount of points to use every year. I just don't get it.

 

[scout68]

The ability to sell for a reasonable amount and the ease of renting points were big factors in my decision. Also, I bought the points resale when they were subject to the exact same rules as points bought new. This lowered my up front costs to a point where things were reasonable. Further, I bought everything up front so no financing was involved which further lowered the cost.

Agreed. I recently bought a small add on contract at the Wilderness lodge. I purchased it for $64.00 a point.
I read somewhere that resale has recently trended sharply upward so I decided to see what the average WL points were going for.

$80.00-$84.00

It was a quick look and the price per point varies in accordance with the contract being purchased but this is one of the big differences with DVC in comparison to your average time share.

On a side note the contract was about $2K and $170.03 a year in dues. This gets me 2 nights a year at below the price point of an on site value motel. Not to mention equity (right now) and a guaranteed buyer (Disney) if I need to pull the rip-cord.


That's a win. I am aware that I shelled out 2K but with the savings per night approaching $200.00 and always rising I will recoup the original investment in short order.

 

[doctornick]

anecdotal aside: we tried to book two rooms at saratoga for the weekend after thanksgiving at exactly 6 months out. wait listed for one of the nights. even over the holiday, that shocks me.

Isn't the weekend after Thansgiving part of the "first week of December" this year? That's historically the busiest week for DVC where things fill up the quickest -- due to a combination of low points, light crowds and holiday decor being up.

I don't know if SSR being unavailable for that time frame is really all that surprising.

 

[baymenxpac]

Isn't the weekend after Thansgiving part of the "first week of December" this year? That's historically the busiest week for DVC where things fill up the quickest -- due to a combination of low points, light crowds and holiday decor being up.

I don't know if SSR being unavailable for that time frame is really all that surprising.

very true. but even at peak times, you can usually book SSR no matter what. especially if you're doing it 180 days on the nose first thing in the AM.

EDIT - the convo has moved way past this, so i don't want to make a new post, but @doctornick, i meant 7 months. don't know why i typed 180 days. guess my mind must have flipped to ADRs.