One of the disappointing trends I've seen in recent years is to disproportionally increase prices on WDW's best customers. Annual passes, longer stay tickets, and DVC prices have increased greater than the average, restrictions to Tables in Wonderland continue to be added, while people who visit frequently often are the least likely to receive discount pins. It appears Disney has decided their more loyal customers will buy the product no matter what; it's the opposite of a frequent buyer program.
Rather than offer incentives, I've started wondering if Disney intends to do the opposite with MyMagic+.
WDW prices are governed by the principle of "price discrimination". Price discrimination, commonly represented in the phrase, “whatever the market to bear”, dates back centuries. It’s based solely on what someone is willing to pay, regardless of supply or demand. In an ideal price discrimination system, a company selling something is able to charge each individual consumer the maximum they are willing to spend. The price of something has no bearing on its cost or what someone else is paying for it.
In the traditionally demonized example, "whatever the market will bear" means charging someone thousands of dollars for a drug they need to survive, even though it costs only pennies to develop and manufacture that drug and the supply of that drug is plentiful.
Disney has been working towards price discrimination for some time and, with the information they are collecting from MyMagic+, would be in a position to move towards something called “perfect price discrimination”. In a nutshell, it means getting each person to spend the absolute greatest amount possible for their WDW vacation even if the person next to them is paying significantly less for essentially the same vacation.
To achieve perfect price discrimination, Disney needs as much information as possible about each person. MagicBand is designed to allow Disney to collect sufficient information so they can crunch this data and determine what each person's threshold of pain is. Since perfect price discrimination is illegal (WDW cannot, for example, charge you $200 for a ticket because that's what you're willing to pay while charging me $20 for that same ticket because that's what I'm willing to pay), Disney will have to modify this to offer slightly different packages to groups of consumers so it could legally argue that two different groups aren’t paying substantially different prices for identical vacations.
Looking at this simplistically, Disney is not going to offer you (for example) “Free Dining” if you are willing to book your vacation without it, even if every other person in the park is receiving “Free Dining”. We already see this principle at work, with many receiving "Free Dining" PINs for times that are not available to the general public. As Disney collects more data through MyMagic+, they will be able to target this sort of incentive more effectively, making sure the only "guests" who receive these discounts are those who would not visit WDW without them.
If the current trend continues, it seems likely that Disney intends to use the data it collects through MyMagic+ to effectively "punish" its most loyal customers.