Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

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ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Perception is everything when it comes to this... because your conclusion frames their motivation. To punish would infer malice or intent to take-away/reduce. They aren't aiming to take away from the regulars - it's a side-effect.

When a business sets out to save a customer, through guest recovery, discounts, etc.. they aren't trying to punish the regular customers... even tho the regular customer isn't getting the same thing the fringe customer is.

If you go the extra mile for your wife... you aren't punishing your friend for not doing the same thing.
Disney is not trying to save customers; it's trying to identify price points on an individual customer basis. It's trying to identify each buyer's reserve price.

Listening to Iger and Rasulo talk about MyMagic+, it's obvious (at least to me:)) that their goal is not to increase the number of guests at WDW. (New guests means more cost for Disney.) Instead, their goal is to get their existing customers to spend more for what's already there.

Figuring out ways to get me to spend more for the same old same old is "punishing" me.

Luckily for me, I simply have been going to the Universal theme parks lately, the ones where they are building exciting new attractions instead of trying to figure out alternate ways, as Rasulo said, to "get a bigger share of [my] wallet." :banghead:
 

SirLink

Well-Known Member
Disney is not trying to save customers; it's trying to identify price points on an individual customer basis. It's trying to identify each buyer's reserve price.

Listening to Iger and Rasulo talk about MyMagic+, it's obvious (at least to me:)) that their goal is not to increase the number of guests at WDW. (New guests means more cost for Disney.) Instead, their goal is to get their existing customers to spend more for what's already there.

Figuring out ways to get me to spend more for the same old same old is "punishing" me.

Luckily for me, I simply have been going to the Universal theme parks lately, the ones where they are building exciting new attractions instead of trying to figure out alternate ways, as Rasulo said, to "get a bigger share of [my] wallet." :banghead:

To be fair to Disney they were going to extract extra money from Guests from "Magical Moments" an upsell of a ride package - which knowing how these costs are ballooning has probably been phased out. Oh and video version of Photopass which has also most likely been axed to save costs. There were ways - notice how there aren't any more interactive queues coming into effect of the NGE budget ... wonder why that is .... :angelic:o_O:D:cool:
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Figuring out ways to get me to spend more for the same old same old is "punishing" me.
The selfish way of looking at this is I'm going to spend what I spend no matter what they do, but if they can get others to spend more for the same old stuff that means more revenue for the company that isn't coming from my pocket. OK, kinda weak argument, but I'm not opposed to others spending more for the same old product as long as I don't have to. I guess this is mainly the regular/local visitor vs the tourist visitor. If the regular guest no longer gets as many discounts then the company doesn't need to raise prices as much. The tourist visitor benefits indirectly from this assuming they werent getting as many discounts to begin with. I stay at DVC, don't get free dining or pin codes and pay full price for my park tickets. I don't go frequently enough or long enough to get an AP. If they cut out discounting like Iger wants it really doesn't hurt me.

Just a quick observation, its nice to see a civil conversation on a hot button topic with back and forth points without the trolls stiring things up and the name calling.:)
 

Texas84

Well-Known Member
Does that mean Siemens' rampant bribery of the US DoD didn't work out this time? :devilish:

The military may not be watching you in SSE, but they are watching Siemens's systems in SSE...

http://rpdefense.over-blog.com/article-siemens-hires-ex-us-commander-in-afghanistan-93886829.html

I guess you didn't notice government agencies like DHS and IRS are creating their own armies. Because they know they can't count on the rank and file in the US military. You're looking in the wrong direction. That is a mistake. That's all I have to say on that matter.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
To be fair to Disney they were going to extract extra money from Guests from "Magical Moments" an upsell of a ride package - which knowing how these costs are ballooning has probably been phased out. Oh and video version of Photopass which has also most likely been axed to save costs. There were ways - notice how there aren't any more interactive queues coming into effect of the NGE budget ... wonder why that is .... :angelic:o_O:D:cool:
Sure. I've been ignoring the entire topic of upsale opportunities that MyMagic+ provides but you are quite right to bring it up.

Instead, I've been focusing on the data collection aspects since there were questions regarding how Disney generates additional revenue from these data. Sure, Disney could offer selective "20% off" on a Mickey plush to one guest and "50% off" to another guest, but only after raising the price 30%.:rolleyes:

Again, the goal (IMHO) is to identify each buyer's reserve price based on a comprehensive set of data, including correlating how guests behave within the parks to their spending habits.
 

71jason

Well-Known Member
So I was talking with the guy who cuts my hair last night, conversation about the dullness of staring at a computer screen all day, when he mentions he works in Guest Relations for the Mouse as his second job and he tells me about all the problems they've been having with the new RFID cards/bands. (No prompting on my part!)

His main complaint is that guests are getting them at home before their trip and doing far too much "damage" because they have no clue what they are doing. My favorite quote--"I have an iPod, I can plug it in and work it--that doesn't make me a techie!" I guess a lot of guests are "linking" to hotel or dining reservations even when they don't have one, which gums up the system. When asked why, typical response: "But your website let me do it!"

His solution would be to give them the card/band upon arrival at WDW and explain how it works to them--I didn't question how that would work for, say, single-day guests who probably have better things to do at 9:00 in the morning than a tech tutorial. But take this as real world evidence NGE might not be idiot-proof enough yet.

Meanwhile, I'm off to go drink a couple $7 beers at the new Universal attraction that cost significantly less than $2B to build.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
The selfish way of looking at this is I'm going to spend what I spend no matter what they do, but if they can get others to spend more for the same old stuff that means more revenue for the company that isn't coming from my pocket.
Right but don't forget that Disney intends to collect detailed data on exactly how much you would be willing to pay.

Is someone willing to stay onsite at a Value Resort for $100/night, $120/night, or $140/night? Ideally, Disney wants to find out and make sure they are charged exactly that amount.

Since you use DVC, Disney wants to correlate your behavior to you spending patterns to determine if (for example) you'd be willing to but more DVC points for $150/point or $140/point. Disney is not going to offer you a DVC discount if they believe you'll pay the higher official price.

Again, price discrimination is all about figuring out the most each individual will pay (sometimes called a buyer's reserve price) and then charging them exactly that price. The more data you have, the easier it becomes to figure out each buyer's reserve price.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Right but don't forget that Disney intends to collect detailed data on exactly how much you would be willing to pay.

Is someone willing to stay onsite at a Value Resort for $100/night, $120/night, or $140/night? Ideally, Disney wants to find out and make sure they are charged exactly that amount.

Since you use DVC, Disney wants to correlate your behavior to you spending patterns to determine if (for example) you'd be willing to but more DVC points for $150/point or $140/point. Disney is not going to offer you a DVC discount if they believe you'll pay the higher official price.

Again, price discrimination is all about figuring out the most each individual will pay (sometimes called a buyer's reserve price) and then charging them exactly that price. The more data you have, the easier it becomes to figure out each buyer's reserve price.

I think after reading through that Target example I can see how this data could have a lot of unseen benefits to the company. Once this rolls out fully I can see a bunch of us looking at it and saying, "how are they making a profit from it" but I think the answer will be in very subtle ways that most guests will never know. How many people even realized Target was sending them the targeted ads. Probably not many. Much of the heartburn over the data collecting will probably die down, like the finger print scanners did and people will go on visiting WDW without thinking about it. The FP+ system still has the potential to be a negative to a lot of guests, but I can't imagine them not tweaking it if the system gets bad reviews. I think an easy compromise would be to hold back some FP+ reservations for the day of to satisfy the day visitors and regulars who don't want to plan 60 days in advance.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
The FP+ system still has the potential to be a negative to a lot of guests, but I can't imagine them not tweaking it if the system gets bad reviews. I think an easy compromise would be to hold back some FP+ reservations for the day of to satisfy the day visitors and regulars who don't want to plan 60 days in advance.
Talk about timing, it's funny you mention that point because, as @Lee quoted here in an article from @RSoxNo1 there are no plans to hold back any FP+ selections for day-of use. If they are gone, you're just out-of-luck.
 

stlphil

Well-Known Member
Your concern is exactly why the tagged individual is so much more powerful. You don't need anyone to sift through it to break people out or more people to follow more people - it's all automatic and just becomes a numbers game. Someone can go back afterwards and look at an individual if they want to - but the computers just churn through it all efficiently .

There is value in both aggregated activity and data of an individual. They have different uses

This point suggests that it's time for a statistics lesson to give everyone an inkling of how this stuff works. I use the word inkling because that's how much I know about specifically what Disney might do. While I'm not a statistician I do create statistical models at work.

The whole point of the data gathering is to create a predictive statistical model, and I'll explain just what that means in a minute. The model is derived from input "descriptors" which can be just about anything. Some of these descriptors are just raw data, like what hotel you are staying at or what land you are in at 10am or how long you you sit at a certain bench. Not all raw data will be used directly as descriptors, because some descriptors are derived (calculated) descriptors, like how fast you walk between the turnstiles and the hub. A statistical model is a way of using these descriptors from a large population to predict a "specific outcome", for example buying an extra-large Goofy plush, and in general you don't know in advance which descriptors are going to be important for predicting the outcome.

Theoretically thousands of descriptors can go into the model, and in general more is better because again you don't know in advance what is going to be important. Then statistical techniques are applied to find what weighting of each of the descriptors "best describes" the specific outcome. And by "best describes" I mean not just who is most likely to buy that plush, but also least likely, and everything in between. Every single descriptor will contribute to the model, just some will contribute much more than others, and the model tells which ones are most important. Some important descriptors will be things that weren't otherwise obvious, and some won't be important by themselves but only in their relation to others.

So where does NGE come in? Obviously, first it is a way to provide many more descriptors, both raw data and derived, and hopefully some of these will be important ones that produce better models. Second, and more importantly, the specific outcome must be known for all the individuals that are used to create the model. In other words, knowing all the data in the world about someone EXCEPT whether or not they bought that Goofy plush is worthless when it comes to creating the model. A subtlety here is that it is just as important to know who didn't buy the plush as who did. NGE allows Disney to link descriptors (lots of them) with outcomes in an unprecedented way.

So how is the model used? Creating the model requires aggregated information (descriptors and outcomes) from lots of people. The models keep getting refined as you add more people and descriptors to create new models. But once you have a model it's value is that it is applied to individuals to predict their behavior. This doesn't require thousands of cast members keeping tabs on us as individuals, it is all done automatically to us, as individuals, just as soon as enough data is gathered on us, as individuals, to have the input descriptors for the model. And at that point our behavior, as individuals, can be predicted and the targeting can begin.

But to me the most insidious part of this is that armed with a model Disney can use it to try to modify our behavior. To give a far fetched example, suppose that the models show that the descriptor "length of time sitting at a particular bench" is important to the outcome of buying that plush. Disney can put some small interactive element there to keep us sitting there longer, hoping to lead to more plush sales. Now of course some descriptors are not causal, like this one probably isn't, but some will be. The temptation will be great to try induce "proper" behavior of guests relative to descriptors, in addition to traditional things more directly related to the outcomes, like discounts.

So not only will Big Brother be watching us, they will also try to be using mind control on us.
 

scout68

Well-Known Member
"Oh you didn't plan 60 days out? We'd invited you to enjoy It's a Small World, Country Bear Jamboree, and the Enchanted Tiki Room with Disney's Fastpass+."

All that quality entertainment for roughly $100.00 per ticket......... or whatever you have calculated I'm willing to pay ..................I'm in! :(
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Disney is not trying to save customers; it's trying to identify price points on an individual customer basis. It's trying to identify each buyer's reserve price.

Listening to Iger and Rasulo talk about MyMagic+, it's obvious (at least to me:)) that their goal is not to increase the number of guests at WDW. (New guests means more cost for Disney.) Instead, their goal is to get their existing customers to spend more for what's already there.

Figuring out ways to get me to spend more for the same old same old is "punishing" me.

Luckily for me, I simply have been going to the Universal theme parks lately, the ones where they are building exciting new attractions instead of trying to figure out alternate ways, as Rasulo said, to "get a bigger share of [my] wallet." :banghead:
I wonder what happens when those people die. Will Disney executives be sitting there with looks of intense constipation:in pain: wondering why the parks are empty? Heck, the same attractions that literally flooded the place twenty years ago are still here, why aren't they still flocking in? Sure, some of them aren't working properly but so what? It's still nostalgia to all those that were welcomed here in the past. Wait...we really weren't interested in new guests were we. I wonder if that could have something to do with it?:confused:
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
I guess you didn't notice government agencies like DHS and IRS are creating their own armies. Because they know they can't count on the rank and file in the US military. You're looking in the wrong direction. That is a mistake. That's all I have to say on that matter.
:jawdrop::arghh::grumpy::facepalm:
 

SJFPKT

Active Member
As I have stated, my main concern is the security of the system. Passive RFID is very unsecure. They can encrypt all my data at the server level but the security of the key to it all, the magic band, is my question.

Disney isn't going to brain wash me in to buying an extra Micky Plush. Now, being the cheapskate I am, if they want to throw me some discounts to make my trip cheaper then I might bite. It goes back to the old saying, you cant get blood from a turnip. If there is no money for extras, a discount isn't going to make money appear. They are about at my limit for the vacation anyway. It is getting to the point where food and hotel is going to be off property.

My kid is going to spend X dollars in the park no matter what happens. He has learned since he was 3 if he wants to buy light swords and water bottle fans that he can save his birthday and Christmas money for the trip. So if they want to throw me some discounts so he can get more bang for his buck, then so be it.

As for the data collected, they aren't going to get anything more than every other major corporation has. If you truly want to know what is out there about you, look at some programs like Accurint or TLOxp. On top of this there are three other major corporations that house tons of data on people. These are for profit organizations that sell your spending habits, credit scores, credit history, and any other imaginable data. We should be far more worried about what credit card companies allow access to rather than one week or two at the Mouse.

The main problem with this whole idea is timing. Had the NSA deal not come out, people probably wouldn't think twice about this. Welcome to the digital age, everything is tracked and watched. Unless you are paying cash all the time, they know what you are doing.

Sorry for the edits, typing on a phone is a PITA.
 
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Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Right but don't forget that Disney intends to collect detailed data on exactly how much you would be willing to pay.

Is someone willing to stay onsite at a Value Resort for $100/night, $120/night, or $140/night? Ideally, Disney wants to find out and make sure they are charged exactly that amount.
All they have to do is ask me, I'd be happy to tell them and save them 3 billion. I'm not willing to pay anything over what can get equivalent or superior accommodations offsite. Simple...no big spying expense. Frankly, excuse me it's hard to put this in a non-insulting way and I am not trying to insult anyone, however, I have a hard time caring if people are so easily duped into spending way more money for way less in return. That strikes me as their problem. Maybe that is why I have absolutely no fear of Disney knowing what I am doing when onsite. It's simple, the exact same thing I would be doing if they were not watching. :happy: Nothing to see here, move along!
 

IHeartArt

Active Member
Listening to Iger and Rasulo talk about MyMagic+, it's obvious (at least to me:)) that their goal is not to increase the number of guests at WDW. (New guests means more cost for Disney.) Instead, their goal is to get their existing customers to spend more for what's already there.

Luckily for me, I simply have been going to the Universal theme parks lately, the ones where they are building exciting new attractions instead of trying to figure out alternate ways, as Rasulo said, to "get a bigger share of [my] wallet." :banghead:

And why would they need to? They've got so many people already coming to the parks as is. No need to draw in more.

That's the faulty thinking, which compiles onto the other problem you have in here: They should start thinking about how to keep the guests they have from heading out to try the rest of Orlando...
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Disney is not trying to save customers; it's trying to identify price points on an individual customer basis. It's trying to identify each buyer's reserve price.

I disagree - you keep dancing back to this idea that they are going to isolate people to punish them - and that postulation I don't support, even if you use other true things that don't directly correlate to this.

Listening to Iger and Rasulo talk about MyMagic+, it's obvious (at least to me:)) that their goal is not to increase the number of guests at WDW. (New guests means more cost for Disney.) Instead, their goal is to get their existing customers to spend more for what's already there.

And this is nothing new... from Dining Plans.. to PhotoPass.. etc.. all things to try to increase the revenue per guest. And most businesses would tell you it's cheaper to retain customers than solicit new ones.

Do I support the business plan of squeezing blood from the stone as your sole growth strategy? No. But let's also keep perspective when we talk about models to increase existing revenues. Every time one comes up people act like this is the new tool of the devil and how dare they consider such things.. no - the true devil is the guy sitting in the center chair thinking this incremental squeeze is the long term way to grow and maintain a customer base.
 
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