Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[flynnibus]

Stories like this should give some TWDC execs the shivers...

http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...sive_ERP_project_after_racking_up_1B_in_costs

Air Force scraps massive ERP project after racking up $1B in costs
The Expeditionary Combat Support System 'has not yielded any significant military capability'

IDG News Service - The U.S. Air Force has decided to scrap a major ERP (enterprise resource planning) software project after spending US$1 billion, concluding that finishing it would cost far too much more money for too little gain.
Dubbed the Expeditionary Combat Support System (ECSS), the project has racked up $1.03 billion in costs since 2005, "and has not yielded any significant military capability," an Air Force spokesman said in an emailed statement Wednesday. "We estimate it would require an additional $1.1B for about a quarter of the original scope to continue and fielding would not be until 2020.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Stories like this should give some TWDC execs the shivers...

http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...sive_ERP_project_after_racking_up_1B_in_costs

Especially while lots of the resort's infrastructure is crumbling.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Hmmmmm....
http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/george-lucas-disney-shares-registered-for-possible-sale-bloomberg/

 

[xdan0920]

I think one of the major areas where the NextGen project is going to fail is in labor costs. First I think that they will NOT be able to eliminate EMHs like they plan without a major backlash from the existing customer base. And also I think that staffing based on pre-booked FP+ and FP+ Dining is going to result in long lines at guest services complaining about under staffing and inability to get FP+s when people change their itineraries at the last minute. Like when people realize it's going to rain all day and decide that DAK is probably a bad idea for the day.

What we need to know is, how impacted DAK is on a rainy day. Also how many of those guests wind up at MK. It could make for some really dicey situations with FP+.

 

[Pentacat]

Stories like this should give some TWDC execs the shivers...

http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti...sive_ERP_project_after_racking_up_1B_in_costs

Gotta love IT contractors. There's no money in finding a solution but there's great money in prolonging a problem.

Of course if it had been SAP that won the contract it would have taken at least $2 billion before the USAF realized they were hosed.

 

[John]

I don't know about TDO ... but I do know Georgie will always have a special place for moi!

I really hope to see him in the near future at WDW!

Honestly....why not call his office and say...Hey George....Spirit here, lets hit up California Grill and do some catching up?

 

[OneAdam12]

[quote="WDW1974, post: 5307508, member: 54925"]
Blue Ocean Strategy is stunningly basic in its footprint. Essentially, you just stop -- STOP -- competing in your industry and seek only to exploit your existing base. Competition is deemed irrelevant and can be ignored because you are not drawing from that 'ocean' but poaching in your own pond instead. (Many critics have made unflattering parallels to cult building and the need to drop a company or product into a defined death cycle for 'blue ocean' to derive the short term results so-called 'red oceans' have consistently delivered and continue to in the longer term.)

I believe Blue Sky mentioned in a few posts that it appeared as though Disney was conceding the O-Town fight. Not so far off, really.

The cost savings, 'lower costs in bringing greater value' is how it is phrased, are on the corporate end and all BOS readings should keep in mind they were drawn for and from the business community.
relies on numbers -- here, mathematical formula or coding. When you are turned away from a half empty TS restaurant you really want to eat at, BOS followers have the equation that makes this work to the top eecutive in Burbank.

[/quote]

I saw this happening 10 years ago when barely anything new was being built. The incentives to return were limited indeed. I remember going to WDW in the late 80's and early 90's and the parades were big and flamboyant. There was even a parade for the Lion King Movie and a parade for Mulan too! You went to the parks and saw the latest promotions. There was stuff from Disney movies, Disney music, Disney channel, it was oozing all over and you got your Disney fix. Even Radio Disney was in the parks on both coasts! Then the tide turned and nothing new was coming out and there was no cross promotion of movies or shows. Disney imho had dropped the ball in satisfying that need. They either ignored the chance or flat out refused to create any excitement for their other entities. Parades were stale and didnt feature new movie characters or opportunities to see the one thing an adult or child wanted to see.
The second golden age of animation brought Mermaid, BATB, Lion King, and Alladin as tent poles to many other features such as Hunchback, Atlantis, and Hercules. All they did was create theme park shows in DHS for Mermaid, BATB, and for a brief time Hunchback was a show. But where was the love out in Disneyland for these movies? They were never represented out there at all (Lion King parade was the exception)and thats when I realized the tide had turned. Fast forward to today and its still the same, to an extent. Imagine a Tron meet and great with a great backdrop and characters from the film flanked by the cycles on either side or just a cycle available to take a pic on?They fed us a BATB restaurant while other eateries remain shuttered. DHS has a stale Mermaid stage show while we get a new omnimover ride in the Magic Kindom. Why? Why not just upgrade and enhance the stage show and give us a different ride in the FLE? I agree the BOS way of thinking is in full effect and will lead many to not return to WDW. There was always something new to get people to return and that used to be the Disney way of thinking to get you to come back.

And now Universal is definitely competetion. We have never taken the kids to Seaworld or Uni. But now we are as the focus of our next trip to Florida. Especially since we have done just about everything in WDW. How many other families are thinking the same thing? From reading these boards I see I am not alone. I said it another thread, the New FLE is built on old characters while Uni is building attractions based on movies that are only 10 years old. Its fresh, its new. Disney doesnt get it. They have so many new properties in their portfolio from movies and even Star Wars and they are going to keep from exploiting them in the parks where people are willing to spend to experience them. Very sad for this Disney fan to see this.

 

[underemployedCricket]

Hullo- Houston we have a problem. Did you ever in your life time for see the implosion of the community surrounding the "space Program" Yep Apple and Oranges. I know- but think about it....for some of us- who were born in a certain "generation"- it was something I would say would NEVER go away-but it did......

Blue Ocean Strategy- I dont care about blue or red but when the salt the component that makes the ocean the ocean- work with me here- disappears it stops being even an ocean..-There is a aged salt that makes DISNEY what it is-what is the SALT of Disney- you cant see it- but you can taste it -kinda losing its flavor isnt it....

BOS=Its a concept that is not and never will come to a long term good and once the ship has set sail with the pirates on board- how does one turn it around when all those in control of disney have bought in - for the common good- that common good is for thier own financial gain...

....dont give them what they want- give them what we want- and make them love it- spin it like a top on fire- and pray it doesnt burn out before you have the controlled burn you want....

Dear Disney-
Please note-
You have sold /fed us Magic for years-we get that
But just because you boldly brand something so openly with the direct name of "Magic" and try and sell it- doesn't meant that's what it is....
You have royally messed this one up Disney on so many levels..
Good Luck cleaning up the mess your still making-
and while your at it- is there still a "cancer of rust" on the infrastructure of metal that holds up the "people Mover"- you might want to look at that if you have the time/inclination/money? Rust isnt so magical...just saying.
Sincerely,
Signed- I still care......I think.

Rambling from a Saturday morning-

 

[yeti]

Hullo- Houston we have a problem. Did you ever in your life time for see the implosion of the community surrounding the "space Program" Yep Apple and Oranges. I know- but think about it....for some of us- who were born in a certain "generation"- it was something I would say would NEVER go away-but it did......

Blue Ocean Strategy- I dont care about blue or red but when the salt the component that makes the ocean the ocean- work with me here- disappears it stops being even an ocean..-There is a aged salt that makes DISNEY what it is-what is the SALT of Disney- you cant see it- but you can taste it -kinda losing its flavor isnt it....

BOS=Its a concept that is not and never will come to a long term good and once the ship has set sail with the pirates on board- how does one turn it around when all those in control of disney have bought in - for the common good- that common good is for thier own financial gain...

....dont give them what they want- give them what we want- and make them love it- spin it like a top on fire- and pray it doesnt burn out before you have the controlled burn you want....

Dear Disney-
Please note-
You have sold /fed us Magic for years-we get that
But just because you boldly brand something so opening with the direct name of "Magic" and try and sell it- doesn't meant that's what it is....
You have royally messed this one up Disney on so many levels..
Good Luck cleaning up the mess your still making-
and while your at it- is there still a "cancer of rust" on the infrastructure of metal that holds up the "people Mover"- you might want to look at that if you have the time/inclination/money? Rust isnt so magical...just saying.
Sincerely,
Signed- I still care......I think.

Rambling from a Saturday morning-

My question is what were you doing Friday night?

 

[underemployedCricket]

Absolutely nothing mind altering---I can go there without it....LOL
I knew I shouldnt have hit post.

 

[Funmeister]

Lost Vision

What really amazes me is that the company has lost it's focus. For a while in "Traditions" they actually used to talk about how in the early years Disney would tell the guests what they wanted. Basically there was not much guest feedback on what the next type of attraction, restaurant or show they wanted to see.

The company then released the industrial engineers into the parks and resorts to get feedback to see what they wanted...more thrill rides? more shows? healthier food options?

The questions slowly began to change from open ended questions to closed ended questions. From "What did you like most about your day?" to " Was your day magical, good, great or awesome?" The questions were engineered to get positive results. Most surveys given are all about how many nights are you staying, on property or off property? How many in your party? zip code?

Sad that the company still feels they are listening to their guests when they have not listened to them for years. Guests demanded NextGen the same way they demanded the company get rid of the Christmas light arches at Epcot or the version of Pooh we got instead of the Tokyo version. These decisions were not made by guest feedback but budget cuts.

Rea$on to Celebrate?

Whenever a new anniversary celebration is in the planning stage the first thing decided is if it will be marketing driven or giveaway driven. Overall I feel the 15th Anniversary (give a gift away every 15 seconds and a car a day) was the most successful promotion in WDW history. Now some may argue the the 25th anniversary was the most successful and in some ways. Castle Cake = Marketing Ploy. The company has not had a giveaway-based promotion since the 15th. Reason being they are scared to make the investment. The prize patrol promotion is in no way a comparison to the 15th.

If you were fortunate to attend the 15th anniversary the electricity in the air was amazing. Another problem with celebrations today is that they extend them to last for almost 2-years and it is almost less time than that before they crank up another one. No longer special. Imagine if they would put in the effort of creating an exciting experience of the 15th anniversary in a celebration now?

Predictions?

NextGen will stick around but no where near to the level planned. The writing was on the wall a year or more ago with the realization the investment would never generate the return. At that point the company still had to move forward because the thinking was that it was "too expensive to fail." They saw it as a waste of money at that point if they abandoned it so they moved forward pumping more and more money into the "Magical Money Pit" as it is referred to by some in the hallways of Celebration Place and Team Disney (yeah there are actually a few of us still here). The problem now is, like an alcoholic, you cannot begin the healing process if you do not admit you have a problem.

We will get/have some cool upgrades because of NextGen, but the real purpose runs much deeper as previously discussed with datamining etc.

Once the dust settles over the next few years the company will begin investing once again in tangible products (shows, attractions, new entertainment venues). Not on the level of Universal to aggressively move forward but at that point some shows and attractions will be in need of major refurb or replacement.

Every few years they run financial scenarios on new capital investments (resorts, water parks, entertainemnt venues, etc.). New water park financial impact study is making its rounds again but this usually means nothing...its just numbers. No theme...no location...just a financial model to test the "waters." One can hope...nut usually not.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I think your percentages are way off ... if the majority of people leave 60% satisfied, meaning maybe come back in 5-7 years, I think TDO is happy.

There is no way the product they are putting out now would register at 90% satisfaction level on average. If we were to quantify the satisfaction level on averages.

You're missing the point of what I was saying. I was using the percentages to explain some of the decisions they're making and you're focusing on whether or not they're putting out a quality product. I think many of us would agree here that the product is not up to Disney's usual standards.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Nice...and though a joke, painfully close to the real thing.

Like with Pleasure Island. No survey ever asked "Do you wish there were fewer clubs?" They only said something like "Would you like to see more and varied shopping and dining at PI?"

Assassination by survey.
But that was under the former administration.
George wouldn't do anything like that...or would he?

I've seen better surveys in California, but that's largely because they gave guests the ability to type in their answers. All the surveys I've taken in Florida were multiple choice.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Actually this is good news. Succeed or fail, NextGen will be fully depreciated fairly quickly so it doesn't have to be kept on the books much longer than the time it looks like they are going to need to roll it out fully.

And the GAAP rules do make sense in this instance. NextGen is mostly an IT infrastructure project, and the tech world moves so fast that state-of-the-art systems don't have much longer shelf life than milk that has been left out of the fridge. Even if the hardware is still running, it won't be long before the IT executives are begging for upgrades, and the success (or lack thereof) will determine whether they get them, or the system is tweaked or to some extent goes away. Regardless of what happens, I think some parts of NextGen are here to stay, such as the RFID door locks (which I bet have a longer depreciation schedule).

If they're admitting this now (I believe it was Rasulo that said it), it's very interesting. Having said that how much of it has a short life span? Are we talking $1.5 billion every 5 years? I highly doubt it. Perhaps a few hundred million every 3.75 years? You know, roughly the cost of an E-ticket?

 

[the.dreamfinder]

 

[yeti]

Absolutely nothing mind altering---I can go there without it....LOL
I knew I shouldnt have hit post.

Not at all. It was pretty much the same thing I've been thinking....only different. In a good way.

 

[ParentsOf4]

If they're admitting this now (I believe it was Rasulo that said it), it's very interesting. Having said that how much of it has a short life span? Are we talking $1.5 billion every 5 years? I highly doubt it. Perhaps a few hundred million every 3.75 years? You know, roughly the cost of an E-ticket?

Thank you. The point of my earlier post (which I believe started this particular topic) was to indicate that Disney will be investing in NextGen for the foreseeable future because many of its components will need relatively frequent upgrades, unlike a traditional brick-and-mortar attraction. Budgets are finite. If Disney is spending on NextGen, it’s not spending on attractions.

Putting aside Disney’s possible motives, if they’ve put any thought into planning (and I’m sure they have) Disney must have a growth path for MM+. Right now they are unveiling the beta version. In 12 months we’ll see v1.0. What happens after that?

Beyond what exists today, technology will expand in directions that no plan can foresee. Disney executives need to be prepared to modify their NextGen plans to take advantage of the latest technology.

The technology baselined today should allow for MM+ expansion. Disney needs to get v1.0 out now so they can start realizing revenue from their investment. Beyond that, they better have plans to generate additional revenue from future enhancements, otherwise MM+ quickly devolves into one of those brick-and-mortar attractions Disney’s current executives criticize as not leading to sustainable growth. MM+ v2.0, v3.0, etc. will require further R&D and infrastructure upgrades. MM+ will continue to cost Disney for years (and possibly decades) until they decide it’s no longer viable to invest in MM+.

It seems Disney executives believe attractions are less relevant in today’s theme park industry, suggesting BOS thinking. It should take 2-to-3 years to determine if those executives are right.

 

[alissafalco]

Thank you. The point of my earlier post (which I believe started this particular topic) was to indicate that Disney will be investing in NextGen for the foreseeable future because many of its components will need relatively frequent upgrades, unlike a traditional brick-and-mortar attraction. Budgets are finite. If Disney is spending on NextGen, it’s not spending on attractions.

Putting aside Disney’s possible motives, if they’ve put any thought into planning (and I’m sure they have) Disney must have a growth path for MM+. Right now they are unveiling the beta version. In 12 months we’ll see v1.0. What happens after that?

Beyond what exists today, technology will expand in directions that no plan can foresee. Disney executives need to be prepared to modify their NextGen plans to take advantage of the latest technology.

The technology baselined today should allow for MM+ expansion. Disney needs to get v1.0 out now so they can start realizing revenue from their investment. Beyond that, they better have plans to generate additional revenue from future enhancements, otherwise MM+ quickly devolves into one of those brick-and-mortar attractions Disney’s current executives criticize as not leading to sustainable growth. MM+ v2.0, v3.0, etc. will require further R&D and infrastructure upgrades. MM+ will continue to cost Disney for years (and possibly decades) until they decide it’s no longer viable to invest in MM+.

It seems Disney executives believe attractions are less relevant in today’s theme park industry, suggesting BOS thinking. It should take 2-to-3 years to determine if those executives are right.

Exactly, with the way that technology is, all of this will be dated in 20 years if not sooner. I really think that this is the biggest mistake they could have ever done.

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

Exactly, with the way that technology is, all of this will be dated in 20 years if not sooner. I really think that this is the biggest mistake they could have ever done.

I concur with your statement on the possible biggest mistake Disney P&R has made as a whole, but looking at WDW itself, I'd also look at the way they handled PI as a big costly mistake as well. What was once a nightlife fun zone is now a shuttered ghosttown from their into the West Side. Those night clubs brought in so much extra revenue toward the resort. So I guess for WDW you would have/rank #1 being PI closing/removal and #2 being NGE FOR NOW cause technically it hasn't been in full swing yet.

 

[Darth Sidious]

If they're admitting this now (I believe it was Rasulo that said it), it's very interesting. Having said that how much of it has a short life span? Are we talking $1.5 billion every 5 years? I highly doubt it. Perhaps a few hundred million every 3.75 years? You know, roughly the cost of an E-ticket?

Just that initial layout has a financial lifetime of about 5 years. For tax purposes and financial reporting purposes they can only list this expenditure as an asset for so long. That certainly isn't to say it will be outdated in 5 years. They will likely continue with smaller expenditures on the system for maintenance and technological advancements through time though.