Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[Disneyhead'71]

At this point I think "Walt Disney Imagineering" is a better thing on a resume than on a pay check.

 

[flynnibus]

Dilbert was fitting today for this discussion...

 

[Jakester]

So, could one of the factors for Burbank/WDI pushing for Mr.Tony Baxter to leave is simply because he wanted to create another blue ocean while the others were simply focusing on strengthening their own internal blue ocean strategy?

I personally feel like that's why his retirement came unexpected.

 

[flynnibus]

I personally feel like that's why his retirement came unexpected.

Unexpected? Where have you been for the last 3 years? This has been rumored for nearly that long as 'coming very soon'

 

[Darth Sidious]

I mentioned a few weeks ago in another thread, my close friend is related to a Uni Exec and I was in a position to chat him up about this very subject ... in short, yes, Universal is essentially laughing at Disney and the Uni Execs view this all almost exactly as the majority of us do here ... short term gains at the expense of long term sustainability, he summed up his feelings with something along the lines of, "we'll just keep building rides and increase our market share."

To be fair I don't think NextGen is a short term manauver. When you spend that kind of money on an operations system it is long term. That being said Uni is in a great position to increase market share and they are doing the right things for sure. Both of them are trying to do something for the betterment of some business number so to speak. The problem for us fans is that Disney isn't doing something for fans and presumably at the expense of attractions. NextGen is likely on its own budget but I would imagine executives are still hesitant to build attractions because their numbers issues are 'going to be fixed' by NextGen and they'd like to see the effects. Hopefully one day there will be a resurgence in attractions CAPEX.

 

[Cody5242]

Do you think when potter 2.0 opens someone will open their eyes and maybe open up one state of the art attraction?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

To be fair I don't think NextGen is a short term manauver. When you spend that kind of money on an operations system it is long term. That being said Uni is in a great position to increase market share and they are doing the right things for sure. Both of them are trying to do something for the betterment of some business number so to speak. The problem for us fans is that Disney isn't doing something for fans and presumably at the expense of attractions. NextGen is likely on its own budget but I would imagine executives are still hesitant to build attractions because their numbers issues are 'going to be fixed' by NextGen and they'd like to see the effects. Hopefully one day there will be a resurgence in attractions CAPEX.

If NextGen produces the kind of squeeze on the existing fan base that TWDC is hoping, I wouldn't expect anything of substance getting built for a LONG time. Between NextGen and new customers for emerging markets I see WDW digging themselves into a giant pit. This is truly the definition of short term gold mining.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Do you think when potter 2.0 opens someone will open their eyes and maybe open up one state of the art attraction?

Probably a state of the art concept that is "value engineered" down to another Omnimover plus a spinner. Disney fans don't like/want/can't ride state of the art attractions. Grammy's pacemaker and little Bobby's Hyperactivity Disorder can only handle so much excitement before things get REALLY ugly. Best to stick with Omnimovers and Spinners.

 

[dhall]

Being a wii family who killed our wii, we went out and bought another wii, not a wii u.

My kids and I killed our Wii (had to replace the disc drive), but I decided to wait and see how the games come out -- if 3rd parties treat the new one as stepchild the way they treated the old one, then no point in dropping that kind of money. My wife was all set to get me a WiiU for xmas when I showed her one in the store, but then I told her I was going to wait a year -- her reaction to the kids (they were all in on it) was "great, now what do we do?"

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Thing is it's he Microsoft subsidiary can never happen, same reason why no Japanese company can be owned outright by a foreign firm.

But it is less to do with the Blue Ocean stuff and that, they are underprepared for HD development and the pipeline tools for developers are kinda unwieldy. Compare Sony who are focusing on easier architecture of the PS4 and better development tools. This is the time when Nintendo should focus on Handheld...

I should clarify. Nintendo could end up going private with Microsoft owning a considerable share of it to help pay off their debt/get new capital and in exchange to exclusively develop games for the Xbox platform.
It's also important to note that giving up on the console hardware arms race was a key tenant of the Wii strategy which was continued with the Wii U. That worked the first time around because people found the wiimote very compelling. THAT was a blue ocean, motion control. The issue is that console makers earn most of their revenue from licensing fees that each third party publisher has to pay. Nintendo has always had trouble establishing good relationships with publishers/developers, similar to their attitude towards online gaming.

My thinking is that NextGen is similar to the Wii U in that the execs think it could create a blue ocean in theory, but so many other components of the resort make it unappealing so you can't counteract those issues.
Nice job blowing through 1.5 on your way to 2 billion dollars Disney!

 

[bubbles1812]

To be fair I don't think NextGen is a short term manauver. When you spend that kind of money on an operations system it is long term. That being said Uni is in a great position to increase market share and they are doing the right things for sure. Both of them are trying to do something for the betterment of some business number so to speak. The problem for us fans is that Disney isn't doing something for fans and presumably at the expense of attractions. NextGen is likely on its own budget but I would imagine executives are still hesitant to build attractions because their numbers issues are 'going to be fixed' by NextGen and they'd like to see the effects. Hopefully one day there will be a resurgence in attractions CAPEX.

I don't think he was suggesting that NextGen is a short term maneuver, to use your phrase. Very clearly, the execs want it and expect it to stay. Unless something catastrophic happens with it (which isn't outside the realm of possible considering the struggles they are having with implementation), some form of it is likely here to stay. I actually think the concept of the new website should work fine and even the RFID bands might work out. Fastpass+ is what I think is most likely to fail. But anyways, I think the point he was trying to make that with a system like this, it may produce some good short term gains but in the long run, it won't, or at least not at the levels I'm guessing the Disney execs expect. You seem to be equating the expected long term maneuver that is Next Gen to it providing more than just short term gains, which is not necessarily true

Irregardless, NextGen isn't going to be something that is going to draw a heck of a lot of people into the parks. I know I would never go back simply because Disney designed a new operating system. And I doubt many others would either. It's foolish not to build more rides and invest in new technology. @flynnibus noted in Part I of this thread that there needs to be a balance, and I think he is right. I don't mind Disney investing in stuff like NextGen as long as they balance that with investment in new rides, maintenance ect...things absolutely positively needed to keep guests coming back in the long term. And I don't see Disney doing that anymore. They've put all their chickens into this one basket at the moment.

 

[Darth Sidious]

I don't think he was suggesting that NextGen is a short term maneuver, to use your phrase. Very clearly, the execs want it and expect to it to stay. Unless something catastrophic happens with it (which isn't outside the realm of possible considering the struggles they are having with implementation), some form of it is likely hear to stay. I actually think the concept of the new website should work fine and even the RFID bands might work out. Fastpass+ is what I think is most likely to fail. But anyways, I think the point he was trying to make that with a system like this, it may produce some good short term gains but in the long run, it won't, or at least not at the levels I'm guessing the Disney execs expect. You seem to be equating the expected long term maneuver that is Next Gen to it providing more than just short term gains, which is not necessarily true

I think efficiency increasing is a long term fix. I am simply looking at it from a business perspective. That being said I think they could have done this better and for the benefit of the guests as well, but they did not. When I hear short term I think of a move that is done to temporarily boost the financial statements or capitalize on something that is currently hot. Something lasting that legitimately fixes efficiency issues within operations is long term. Love or hate NextGen (and I don't love it, just so we are clear) it is an operations system that is to drive up efficiency in both costs and hopefully revenues.

When McDonalds incorporated the JITS system it was an efficiency fix and worked to improve multiple aspects of business. It has been sustainable as well, as long they continually adjust things as needed.

 

[bubbles1812]

I think efficiency increasing is a long term fix. I am simply looking at it from a business perspective. That being said I think they could have done this better and for the benefit of the guests as well, but they did not. When I hear short term I think of a move that is done to temporarily boost the financial statements or capitalize on something that is currently hot. Something lasting that legitimately fixes efficiency issues within operations is long term. Love or hate NextGen (and I don't love it, just so we are clear) it is an operations system that is to drive up efficiency in both costs and hopefully revenues.

Agreed that efficiency increasing is a long term fix. That being said... I'm not even totally sold that Next Gen will do that effectively. Related to the website and the bands allowing for the streamlining of purchases? Yes, I guess so, provided they work out the kinks, which aren't insubstantial. With Fastpass+... nope, don't see it, especially based on the reports we here from the "ground" from CMs and middle management as well as those who participated int he test. But at the end of the day, I still don't think it's absolutely guaranteed Disney is going to see more than short term gains or as I said before, aren't going to get the results the expect in the long term even if there is some profit. They are "hoping for revenues" as you so pointed out. But I do understand the points you are making.

 

[KevinYee]

I still think that the 'right' way to interpret Disney's move is that they are still trying to be a Blue Ocean company, they way they have been for decades.

In the past, their moves to a blue ocean have been GOOD ones, leading competition to come along and create a red ocean feeding frenzy and competition. So Disney moved again.

They are still trying to innovate. The only problem is, they are doing it potentially poorly and making some big decisions. In a real way, moving away from attractions and toward Interactive Games and NextGen *is* a Blue Ocean thing... but it remains to be seen if this is daring-but-justified, or daring-and-stupid. The first would mean they are visionary, the latter would mean they made a billion dollar mistake.

At least they can't be accused by Will Rogers of standing still. He once said "even if you're on the right track, if you're standing still you'll be run over." Disney isn't standing still. Unfortunately, I think what they did was CHANGE tracks. They were actually on the right track (building innovative attractions that people want) but decided they should change tracks (build experiences, games, and fastpass tricks), and I think it's a mistake. But the train track analogy captures more of what's wrong than BOS, IMHO.

 

[ChrisFL]

-
That seems to be the problem these days with companies that are considered creatives...

The true creative forces at hand in any given division are repressed or felt to feel unappreciated, and the pencil pushing coin purse holders are in charge and have no clue as to why they are successful to begin with.
Instead of challenging past dogmas or expanding the creative experience horizon, said companies spend too much time focusing on the narrow minded sight lines of stock quotes and bottom line numbers.

It just never seems to dawn on them that if they let the creatives out to play, they would see more of those rosey numbers they are so obsessed with. Has this not been proven over and over again?

That's why I'm really becoming a fan of what Comcast is doing for Universal...they're throwing TONS of money at creative endavours over there and realize they'll get rewarded for it, especially as TDO stagnates

 

[Darth Sidious]

Agreed that efficiency increasing is a long term fix. That being said... I'm not even totally sold that Next Gen will do that effectively. Related to the website and the bands allowing for the streamlining of purchases? Yes, I guess so, provided they work out the kinks, which aren't insubstantial. With Fastpass+... nope, don't see it, especially based on the reports we here from the "ground" from CMs and middle management as well as those who participated int he test. But at the end of the day, I still don't think it's absolutely guaranteed Disney is going to see more than short term gains or as I said before, aren't going to get the results the expect in the long term even if there is some profit. They are "hoping for revenues" as you so pointed out. But I do understand the points you are making.

Yeah, nothing is guaranteed and Bob Iger himself said it was a huge risk. I wouldn't have went this route but it is the path they are going and this is the reasoning I see behind it.

 

[TalkingHead]

Do you think when potter 2.0 opens someone will open their eyes and maybe open up one state of the art attraction?

Why would it? I'm still waiting for WDW to match Spider-man, much less HP 1.0.

 

[Darth Sidious]

I still think that the 'right' way to interpret Disney's move is that they are still trying to be a Blue Ocean company, they way they have been for decades.

In the past, their moves to a blue ocean have been GOOD ones, leading competition to come along and create a red ocean feeding frenzy and competition. So Disney moved again.

They are still trying to innovate. The only problem is, they are doing it potentially poorly and making some big decisions. In a real way, moving away from attractions and toward Interactive Games and NextGen *is* a Blue Ocean thing... but it remains to be seen if this is daring-but-justified, or daring-and-stupid. The first would mean they are visionary, the latter would mean they made a billion dollar mistake.

At least they can't be accused by Will Rogers of standing still. He once said "even if you're on the right track, if you're standing still you'll be run over." Disney isn't standing still. Unfortunately, I think what they did was CHANGE tracks. They were actually on the right track (building innovative attractions that people want) but decided they should change tracks (build experiences, games, and fastpass tricks), and I think it's a mistake. But the train track analogy captures more of what's wrong than BOS, IMHO.

Well said.

 

[SirLink]

I should clarify. Nintendo could end up going private with Microsoft owning a considerable share of it to help pay off their debt/get new capital and in exchange to exclusively develop games for the Xbox platform.
It's also important to note that giving up on the console hardware arms race was a key tenant of the Wii strategy which was continued with the Wii U. That worked the first time around because people found the wiimote very compelling. THAT was a blue ocean, motion control. The issue is that console makers earn most of their revenue from licensing fees that each third party publisher has to pay. Nintendo has always had trouble establishing good relationships with publishers/developers, similar to their attitude towards online gaming.

My thinking is that NextGen is similar to the Wii U in that the execs think it could create a blue ocean in theory, but so many other components of the resort make it unappealing so you can't counteract those issues.
Nice job blowing through 1.5 on your way to 2 billion dollars Disney!

Firstly Nintendo has a lot of dosh in the bank so to speak. Oh believe me, I know how Nintendo makes money ... the reason why third parties don't care for the Wii U is two fold architecture and development tools compared to Orbis and Durango where both tools and architecture is similar to developing on high ends PCs.

I again state it the hardware manufactures make more money of services than licensing fees ... Home made huge amounts of advertising revenue as well as digital good sales ... MS Gold/Avatar/Ads/etc bringing in a lot of revenue ... which is why the generation has extended for so long ... because they have found better more lucrative revenue streams ...

Talking of license fee Nintendo dropped it at the start of Wii U, and Wii U is about 3 years too late for the market...compound that with Japanese preferring Handheld and mobile then you go with your handheld division ... motion control was not Blue Ocean more like Prehistoric Ocean ... done by Sega(with Sega Active years ago) ... Microsoft decades ago on PC. Nintendo used it as a crux to not invest in new core experiences ... if we bring it back Nintendo was faffing on with M+G, Shops, Restaurants whilst Sony and MS focused on building rides.

Now Nintendo wants the core user back with WiiU, and they have all moved on to different devices ... but that is what working at a software development studio does to ya!

 

[ChrisFL]

Thanks for the headache, @WDW1974!

I tried to understand BOS from your explanation as well as from a little research on the net. The one thing that puzzles me though is: How can this strategy ever lead to a sustainable situation? If one finds a blue ocean, what will keep the competitor from turning the blue ocean into a red one? Isn't that exactly what Universal is doing at the moment in Orlando? With every step they have improved their resort over there, the ocean is turned a little more "purple". With state of the art Harry Potter attractions in both parks, an affordable family resort, a water park and all the other improvements planned I would view the ocean pretty deep red.

Yep, but that's why Disney came out with their Magical Express service, and before that, MGM Studios...now MyMagic+, what they're really trying to do is handcuff their guests into only staying onsite and not venturing out to the other parks with all of the hot, new attractions.