Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[flynnibus]

Well, the growth at IOA (where there was expansion) was certainly not incremental. But incremental growth is still growth

No - growth when talking about a market is not about grow = yes/no - it's about the rate and expectation of future growth.

We aren't in that steep part of the curve when the growth in the industry/region is in the single digits.

and the only thing that has consistently resulted in any growth (incremental or otherwise) has been investment in new attractions. Look at the last jump of 2 million guests, it was right around the time that Soarin' and Expedition Everest opened - two E-tickets within a year of one another.

This is a loaded argument I'm not going to get into right now.

 

[RSoxNo1]

No - growth when talking about a market is not about grow = yes/no - it's about the rate and expectation of future growth.

We aren't in that steep part of the curve when the growth in the industry/region is in the single digits.



This is a loaded argument I'm not going to get into right now.

Just because attendance has plateaued doesn't mean that the parks have matured. An investment in quality has consistently shown to increase attendance to the same extent of the steep part of the curve. Disney hasn't succeeded in extending vacations, but Universal is about to because they're willing to invest in quality.

Disney has invested in quality in California and Tokyo and the attendance has been continuing to climb. Yes, it's unrealistic to expect steep growth every year, but it's lazy to say that the reason why attendance has flattened is because the park's have matured. The reason why attendance has flattened is largely because they haven't built an e-ticket in 7 years.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I believe that Disney wrongly believes that WDW is in the mature phase because the last 2 major attractions (Mission Space and Everest) didn't result in the kinds of attendance bump that they were expecting. But I believe that the reasons weren't that the market is mature as much as Mission Space immediately was dubbed Project Vomit and Everest was built in a park that has yet to really find an audience. People perceive it as a zoo with little to do. And one attraction didn't do much to change that perspective.

Now they have more evidence to back up their assumption in the FLE. But again I think their analysis is incorrect. The FLE didn't move the needle because of the lack of compelling content, not because of the mature market. Disney keeps striking out in attraction development. I don't blame them for wanting to go with a proven home run like Cars Land.

 

[Belowthesurface]

Random thought...

I observed the Mad Tea Party queue today and it never went above 10/15 minutes.

Can anyone please present the logic that this ride needs a Fastpass? Honestly, SOMEONE convince me why this is a good idea.

Which reminds me... please document the Mad Tea Party now before it is over complicated with a brand new queue, touch points and merge point. Say goodbye to that simple, small and EFFICIENT footprint.

Once again, SOMEONE convince me why this is a good idea.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Random thought...

I observed the Mad Tea Party queue today and it never went above 10/15 minutes.

Can anyone please present the logic that this ride needs a Fastpass? Honestly, SOMEONE convince me why this is a good idea.

Which reminds me... please document the Mad Tea Party now before it is over complicated with a brand new queue, touch points and merge point. Say goodbye to that simple, small and EFFICIENT footprint.

Once again, SOMEONE convince me why this is a good idea.

Obviously so that you can book your MAGICAL Spinny ride 60 days in advance so you can avoid that cumbersome 10 min. wait.

 

[flynnibus]

I believe that Disney wrongly believes that WDW is in the mature phase because the last 2 major attractions (Mission Space and Everest) didn't result in the kinds of attendance bump that they were expecting. But I believe that the reasons weren't that the market is mature as much as Mission Space immediately was dubbed Project Vomit and Everest was built in a park that has yet to really find an audience. People perceive it as a zoo with little to do. And one attraction didn't do much to change that perspective.

Now they have more evidence to back up their assumption in the FLE. But again I think their analysis is incorrect. The FLE didn't move the needle because of the lack of compelling content, not because of the mature market. Disney keeps striking out in attraction development. I don't blame them for wanting to go with a proven home run like Cars Land.

I see it as an inbetween - the market is mature.. but it's a space that you can't let your product stagnant. This isn't 'Mortons Salt' where you're not going to grow the salt market.. and you can leave your product 'as is' for decades. Theme parks are still evolving, there is competition, and you must refresh your product to keep people returning. The customer base is not self-sustaining - you must still market, you must still create draws. But are you going to Expand the market 20+% YoY year after year? I doubt it.. but you can pull it up with balanced additions and refreshes of your product.

The challenge is not over spending... budgets that allow the increased spending to pay for itself in returns. I think it's obvious Disney has been gun-shy in this area since adding DAK.

Separate from the FL tourist market discussion.. you have the idea of saturation on property itself. Do the additions actually bring more.. or do they cannibalize your own stuff because people simply can't do both due to money or time limits.

It's a tricky game - the answer isn't just blindly 'BUILD BUILD BUILD'

Well it can be for the beginning.. but the piper will come calling soon enough.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I see it as an inbetween - the market is mature.. but it's a space that you can't let your product stagnant. This isn't 'Mortons Salt' where you're not going to grow the salt market.. and you can leave your product 'as is' for decades. Theme parks are still evolving, there is competition, and you must refresh your product to keep people returning. The customer base is not self-sustaining - you must still market, you must still create draws. But are you going to Expand the market 20+% YoY year after year? I doubt it.. but you can pull it up with balanced additions and refreshes of your product.

The challenge is not over spending... budgets that allow the increased spending to pay for itself in returns. I think it's obvious Disney has been gun-shy in this area since adding DAK.

Separate from the FL tourist market discussion.. you have the idea of saturation on property itself. Do the additions actually bring more.. or do they cannibalize your own stuff because people simply can't do both due to money or time limits.

It's a tricky game - the answer isn't just blindly 'BUILD BUILD BUILD'

Well it can be for the beginning.. but the piper will come calling soon enough.

Concerning overspending, I am BEYOND stunned that the New Fantasyland cost $425 Million. And on the operations side of the resort, the executive structure and compensation is beyond ridiculous.

And I don't believe anyone said to blindly build, build, build. I believe that what most people are saying is that you can't offer a declining quality product with stagnant offerings at exponentially escalating prices. And on top of that if you assume that the market is maxed and behave that way you will lose the audience you have.

 

[Figments Friend]

Just one more quickee, a Spirited quickee as they're the most MAGICal kind, before some of us call it a night ... but I was wondering if The Disney Parks Blog has acknowleged Tony's 'retirement' yet? Clearly someone of his stature leaving the company after 47 1/2 years MUST be cause for a blog post ... maybe even one by Tom Staggs or Bruce Vaughn talking about all he has meant to Disney ... so can someone send me a link? Thanks.

Alas...no ......

...but perhaps this will make you smile...!

Are you a member..?

I am....

 

[GoofGoof]

They will still be issued an RFID media ticket at the gate... it just won't have charging et al associated with it. They can still use fastpass.
Folks, they are not ripping fastpass distribution out entirely.

I hope that you are right. All the talk around this place has been that regular FP is going away and only FP+ will be left. Not right away, but once FP+ is fully rolled out. If they keep both won't there be major issues with lines. They would have to either make FP+ capacity very limited or have really, really long standby lines. If you combine the current FP traffic with a bunch of people who reserved FP+ 60 days in advance that's going to be a whole lot of people in the FP lines.

 

[GoofGoof]

Comcast will be increasing park spending by 25% next year. That's incredible considering how much work they've done this year.

In defense of TWDC they spent billions on capital improvements in their P&R segment over the last few years. Problem was very little of it was spent in Orlando.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I believe that Disney wrongly believes that WDW is in the mature phase because the last 2 major attractions (Mission Space and Everest) didn't result in the kinds of attendance bump that they were expecting. But I believe that the reasons weren't that the market is mature as much as Mission Space immediately was dubbed Project Vomit and Everest was built in a park that has yet to really find an audience. People perceive it as a zoo with little to do. And one attraction didn't do much to change that perspective.

Now they have more evidence to back up their assumption in the FLE. But again I think their analysis is incorrect. The FLE didn't move the needle because of the lack of compelling content, not because of the mature market. Disney keeps striking out in attraction development. I don't blame them for wanting to go with a proven home run like Cars Land.

Everest resulted in more than a 10% increase in DAK's attendance that has been sustained.

 

[twebber55]

Everest resulted in more than a 10% increase in DAK's attendance that has been sustained.[/quot

IMHO you would see a similar jump if cars land and or pandora was built

 

[Goofyernmost]

I hope that you are right. All the talk around this place has been that regular FP is going away and only FP+ will be left. Not right away, but once FP+ is fully rolled out. If they keep both won't there be major issues with lines. They would have to either make FP+ capacity very limited or have really, really long standby lines. If you combine the current FP traffic with a bunch of people who reserved FP+ 60 days in advance that's going to be a whole lot of people in the FP lines.

If I have understood this correctly, and I might not have, aren't FP+ connected with the pre-reserved FP's for on-site guests? That means that the have complete control over what parks you will be able to visit on any given day. That would balance out the load and make regular FP probably more workable since they won't have to worry about everyone one showing up at the same park on the same day. They should be able to control where they make those passes available and on what day. Am I wrong about this?

 

[GoofGoof]

If I have understood this correctly, and I might not have, aren't FP+ connected with the pre-reserved FP's for on-site guests? That means that the have complete control over what parks you will be able to visit on any given day. That would balance out the load and make regular FP probably more workable since they won't have to worry about everyone one showing up at the same park on the same day. They should be able to control where they make those passes available and on what day. Am I wrong about this?

For less popular rides I would think that would work. For the headliners I am assuming if they make 100% of the available FP capacity available through FP+, reservations will all be gone by the day of your visit. If you didn't book in advance you aren't getting one. The way around the issue is to make 50% of the FP capacity available for FP+ and hold back the rest for in park FP. The only problem with that is they may not have enough FP+ reservations available for guests to book in advance.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Everest resulted in more than a 10% increase in DAK's attendance that has been sustained.

But hasn't it been shown that it didn't increase WDW's numbers, or even extend the stays of the guests. Just cannibalized attendance of the other parks, mostly DHS and EPCOT?

 

[Goofyernmost]

For less popular rides I would think that would work. For the headliners I am assuming if they make 100% of the available FP capacity available through FP+, reservations will all be gone by the day of your visit. If you didn't book in advance you aren't getting one. The way around the issue is to make 50% of the FP capacity available for FP+ and hold back the rest for in park FP. The only problem with that is they may not have enough FP+ reservations available for guests to book in advance.

You could be right, but that would be a marketing disaster for Disney. I don't think they can afford to do that and that is exactly why they have beefed up their numbers of FP available rides. I just don't feel it will come down that way. I think there will be a mix and match of your 3 or whatever choices. In other words, it sounds good but reality isn't quite as rosy as you might think. If you tried to get FP+ for say, Soarin 60 days in advance what's stopping them for limiting the number of FP+ to that one and instead offering one in another park for a lesser ride instead thus directing you to a different park balancing out the crowd levels. You take what you can get right and then try to get a maverick pass in the park for the one you would really like.

 

[WDW1974]

That should have been used in the SOTU by the POTUS. Companies are no different than entertainers or athletes at this point as well. It's the same model. They're built up, get to the pinnacle, and our society and press throw them off of the top of the mountain time and again. It's all a societal sickness and you wonder if it can change. Different reasons for doing these things, but similar results and all the signs of a broken people.

I gave you your first like for that post. It may be a sad statement, but true nonetheless.

I feel this society has been headed this way for a good 15 years (but boy did things spring fast forward post 9/11).

People are simply too accepting of anything and everything that they get from Big Business or Wall Street or the government.

It is pleasantly surprising that as many Disney fans are as critical as they are -- and that should scare the company.

 

[WDW1974]

Yes. I watched his interviews on CNBC last night and this morning, and you're right they seem very bullish on theme parks and are willing to invest significantly more capital in their parks. It's almost as if the Robert's are publicly taunting Iger/Disney now, and are not even sorry about it.

Ah, so I am not the only one who got that!

 

[George]

It is pleasantly surprising that as many Disney fans are as critical as they are -- and that should scare the company.

Well, for a significant period of time, WDW was attractive to retentive, detail oriented types.....they reeled us in. Now, I'm sure they wish they could throw many of us back.

 

[WDW1974]

Can we get some park rumors and news? The whole NGE/wristbands/Baxter leaving/WDW falling to pieces is ...getting old.

It's like watching an episode of a show you really REALLY love... over and over. Even though you know how the episode ends, you watch it. Again and again. Soon you have it memorized and don't even need to watch it. You might even start to hate that stupid episode, but you know it so well its ingrained in your brain. When you think of it, you go, AHHHHHHHHH. But there it is and there it remains.

Something new, please. Change the channel. :\

News?! ... Well, I saw Arby's was offering two fish sandwiches for $5 ... oh, but you meant Disney news.

You can't make it up (well, some people do, I don't like that myself), so if you don't have anything you focus on other things.

Hey, DCL did announce their 2014 schedule and, thankfully, they're only keeping all four ships in FL from January until May ... and they have some kewl new ports in Italy and Greece and cruises from San Juan. And I totally approve!