Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[ChrisFL]

But hasn't it been shown that it didn't increase WDW's numbers, or even extend the stays of the guests. Just cannibalized attendance of the other parks, mostly DHS and EPCOT?

Ya know, on a short-term basis (1-2 years) maybe it did...but here's my thoughts...if ALL of WDW's parks were closer to 11 million guests per year, instead of the incredibly lop-sided MK getting 17 million, while the others have 8 or 9 million, things like crowd control issues might not be as bad.

Of course, we've seen what happens when Disney attempts to spread out the MK audience by making more MK style dark rides in Epcot....so there's a line. Add 2 E-tickets and a omnimover dark ride to AK, and you'll get a lot more attendance IMO. Add more family friendly attractions to DHS and maybe update the GMR, and maybe attendance there also increases.

I don't know where I'm going with this post but wanted to add that

 

[WDW1974]

I think you're missing a key point here, dearest Spirit. Bruce Vaughn heavily emphasized in his letter that Tony was transitioning from being an active, full-time Imagineer to a part-time advisor. In other words, he hasn't technically "retired" from WDI yet.

Are those weasel words? Totally. Is Tony actually retired from Imagineering? Absolutely.

But Vaughn's deliberate choice of words gives Disney the ability to claim that Tony isn't really gone, he isn't really retired in the truest sense of the word, thereby justifying their lack of recognition for Baxter's retirement that doesn't, in their warped view of the world, actually exist.

By keeping Baxter in the employment limbo of "transitioned part-time advisor" allows them to not honor Tony with a Main Street window, not honor Tony with a Disney Legends award, and not honor Tony with a D23 retirement party like they did for Dave Smith.

Given the careful crafting of Vaughn's letter, it's painfully obvious that they want Tony to just slip away, quietly, without fanfare, without recognition, and without any honors. They hate the guy right down to their bone marrow. So the last thing they want to do, is to give the man the proper sendoff that he deserves.

Oh, I know.

I was sorta poking fun at the absurdity of it all ... especially considering who is reading and who may be.

But you summed it up well, Blue Sky.

 

[WDW1974]

It really goes back to the issue of the social media presence that has access to these people at Disney having less PR training than the executives themselves. I would hope Congressman Markey has enough PR training, but I suspect that his run for Senate is going to take precedence over badgering Disney.

At this point, Disney has only answered questions on Next Gen in a very controlled environment. I don't have the opportunity to go to the shareholders meeting, but I would hope that proper questions are asked and when the inevitable PR spin comes, I would hope that the proper follow up questions are asked.

I would truly love to be at the meeting this year, but I just don't have the time and extra $$$ to fly out.

Besides, Iger's goons would probably taser me if I tried to approach him.

 

[WDW1974]

I know it's growing - but the idea of growth vs mature is about the rate of growth. As I said to Eric's reply.. still looks incremental to me - but Comcast is betting the farm.. so we'll see if it pays off and opens a new rush to FL theme parks.

For Comcast, there's very little doubt it's a growth industry. ...

For Disney, it almost looks like it's a dying industry ...

 

[Goofyernmost]

Hey, DCL did announce their 2014 schedule and, thankfully, they're only keeping all four ships in FL from January until May ... and they have some kewl new ports in Italy and Greece and cruises from San Juan. And I totally approve!

Man, I'll bet they are relieved about that!

 

[John]

Ahh - thanks for that. I still not sure that incremental growth like that (1%) tho is still enough to shift into a growth market vs mature. Most of the early growth for UNI was on the revenue side (the HP merch juggernaut) tho of course IOA saw huge attendance growth too. They have sustained a lot of that over the 2+ years now.. so that is a good sign for UNI that the stuff has legs. It will be interesting to see if HP v2 puts it in overdrive.. or more of the same. If HPv2 results in a breakout for UNI... all bets are off

Taking this a step further...isnt there a linted market of theme park goers to begin with? No matter where they are comming from. In order to really expand you would have to get someone who has never visited a theme park to actually "expand" the market. Then it could boil down to people who will spend "X" amount of dollars on a vacation. No matter what market you play in there is and always will be only so many dollars available. The only real trick is too get as many as you can. I think Disney is correct in one way....that theyre share of the pis is mature ( although I think that may be a cop out) They probably have maxed the number of Disney fans who will travel to visit the parks. Thats why in recent years focus has on foriegn visitors....Uni on the other hand are trying to take that Disney fan and show them an alternative. Trying to snag a bigger piece of the pie. I dont think there is a bigger pie or ever will be. The pie grows but only slowly. I dont think that will ever change.

 

[John]

For Comcast, there's very little doubt it's a growth industry. ...

For Disney, it almost looks like it's a dying industry ...

Disney will never change the way they do buisness in Fl until they start to lose some serious cash.....as long as they keep lining up they will not change the way buisness is done there. Plain and simple.

 

[John]

There are fans (us here)...there are park guest ( people who visit once every few years) and there are visitors.... people like tour groups..... one and done....There was a time Disney when Disneys intention was to build a fan base. To cultivate fans. This takes money, they had to up the anti all the time to keep us WOWed. They loved doing it. There were people ( Baxter) who's lives were based on doing just that. There was a passion there to do it. Now the only passion is to make money. That is the underlying issue that pi** es us off. Now they want to cater to the "visitor" Get'em in take thier money.....get'em out. Now Disney is just prostuteing the Disney brand.

 

[flynnibus]

Taking this a step further...isnt there a linted market of theme park goers to begin with? No matter where they are comming from. In order to really expand you would have to get someone who has never visited a theme park to actually "expand" the market

Yes and no - there is still a large audience that would be interested... but won't cross the threshold to travel to FL and instead just visit the regional parks. You can also make yourself more accessible to other markets that might otherwise find visiting too difficult (think international areas or costs of trips). You can also aim to expand the audience that would consider going to a theme park if you add things that interest them or would bring them there (the smarts behind Disney's sport complex).

 

[John]

Yes and no - there is still a large audience that would be interested... but won't cross the threshold to travel to FL and instead just visit the regional parks. You can also make yourself more accessible to other markets that might otherwise find visiting too difficult (think international areas or costs of trips). You can also aim to expand the audience that would consider going to a theme park if you add things that interest them or would bring them there (the smarts behind Disney's sport complex).

I will buy that, but even there in the possible market that you have mentioned they have delved into. No matter how much marketing they do they can not control the cost of travel. They have made it more appealing and cheaper ( Free DDP....Discounts) to offset any roadblocks for those people. How many people have we seen here on the blue pages have said " if I dont get free dining... I can not afford to go" If Disney really wants to "grow the pie" They would need to really up the anti from where they are now. They are playing from so far from behind the curve that it would take billions and many years to make it happen. Hence....NG

 

[RSoxNo1]

But hasn't it been shown that it didn't increase WDW's numbers, or even extend the stays of the guests. Just cannibalized attendance of the other parks, mostly DHS and EPCOT?

The other parks increased as well. Expedition Everest and Soarin' resulted in over a 4 million guest jump in attendance resort wide from 2005 to 2007.

 

[Pentacat]

In defense of TWDC they spent billions on capital improvements in their P&R segment over the last few years. Problem was very little of it was spent in Orlando.

It's all about ROI. The P&R capital being spent in Asia is to tap into the exploding Chinese middle class, the Disney core demographic. As long as the Chinese economy doesn't implode then the rate of return on that money is going to be way higher than if it was spent at WDW. Not to mention that the Florida State Government nor the US Federal Government is going to kick in 57% of the cost to build something like the Chinese Government are in Shanghai.

Carsland is the anomaly. TWDC had to spend that money to fix the black eye caused by cheaping out on CA in the first place (IMHO).

 

[Pentacat]

For Comcast, there's very little doubt it's a growth industry. ...

For Disney, it almost looks like it's a dying industry ...

Comcast has become so bullish on theme parks...wonder if they are considering snapping up Seaworld as well.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Ya know, on a short-term basis (1-2 years) maybe it did...but here's my thoughts...if ALL of WDW's parks were closer to 11 million guests per year, instead of the incredibly lop-sided MK getting 17 million, while the others have 8 or 9 million, things like crowd control issues might not be as bad.

Of course, we've seen what happens when Disney attempts to spread out the MK audience by making more MK style dark rides in Epcot....so there's a line. Add 2 E-tickets and a omnimover dark ride to AK, and you'll get a lot more attendance IMO. Add more family friendly attractions to DHS and maybe update the GMR, and maybe attendance there also increases.

I don't know where I'm going with this post but wanted to add that

Total Disney World Attendance...

• 2003: 37,700,000
• 2004: 40,700,000
• 2005: 42,800,000
• 2006: 45,110,000
• 2007: 46,990,000
• 2008: 47,146,000
• 2009: 47,513,000
• 2010: 47,086,000
• 2011: 47,449,000

I think that in 2010 they looked at Star Tours as their once ever 3.75 years E-ticket addition. The problem was, it was replacing an existing C/D-ticket and they didn't advertise it substantially outside of 50 miles from the parks. The parks have been relatively stagnant since 2006 and attendance has reflected it. But an investment into new E-ticket attractions results in increased attendance.

 

[RSoxNo1]

It's all about ROI. The P&R capital being spent in Asia is to tap into the exploding Chinese middle class, the Disney core demographic. As long as the Chinese economy doesn't implode then the rate of return on that money is going to be way higher than if it was spent at WDW. Not to mention that the Florida State Government nor the US Federal Government is going to kick in 57% of the cost to build something like the Chinese Government are in Shanghai.

Carsland is the anomaly. TWDC had to spend that money to fix the black eye caused by cheaping out on CA in the first place (IMHO).

The average guest earns $150-200 per day for Disney when you factor in hotel occupancy, merchandise, food and tickets. Expedition Everest saw attendance increase at the Animal Kingdom by a million guests and it cost roughly $100,000,000 to build. At these numbers, the ROI was reached in less than a year. What's the problem?

 

[Genie of the Lamp]

WDW Attendance at the parks 2005:
MK-16,100,000
EPCOT-9,900,000
MGM-8,600,000
AK-8,200,000
http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/disney-parks-attendance-up-for-2005.67412/ @TP2000 post on page

WDW Attendance at the parks 2007:
MK-17,060,000
EPCOT-10,930,000
MGM-9,510,000
AK-9,490,000
http://www.teaconnect.org/sites/default/files/misc/files/2007erareport.pdf

 

[drew81]

I would truly love to be at the meeting this year, but I just don't have the time and extra $$$ to fly out.

Besides, Iger's goons would probably taser me if I tried to approach him.

Taser? Last year they had guards up front with hand guns.

Phoenix news on the night of the meeting: "Disney Shareholder shot when asked about Mymagic+......tonight at 11."

 

[Pentacat]

The average guest earns $150-200 per day for Disney when you factor in hotel occupancy, merchandise, food and tickets. Expedition Everest saw attendance increase at the Animal Kingdom by a million guests and it cost roughly $100,000,000 to build. At these numbers, the ROI was reached in less than a year. What's the problem?

Um, you're forgetting all the other overhead that your "average" guest spend has to cover as well. Not to mention the cost of ongoing maintenance to keep the attraction in good condition...oh wait that's $0 right?

I'm not saying there's NO return I'm just saying that WDW is neglected because the return in other areas is higher.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Um, you're forgetting all the other overhead that your "average" guest spend has to cover as well. Not to mention the cost of ongoing maintenance to keep the attraction in good condition...oh wait that's $0 right?

I'm not saying there's NO return I'm just saying that WDW is neglected because the return in other areas is higher.

Right, if they had their way they'd just build restaurants in World Showcase and DVC resorts because the ROI is a lot easier to quantify and is typically quicker. The problem is, for some silly reason guests want new attractions.

 

[ChrisFL]

Yes and no - there is still a large audience that would be interested... but won't cross the threshold to travel to FL and instead just visit the regional parks. You can also make yourself more accessible to other markets that might otherwise find visiting too difficult (think international areas or costs of trips). You can also aim to expand the audience that would consider going to a theme park if you add things that interest them or would bring them there (the smarts behind Disney's sport complex).

Hence Disney's reasoning behind DisneyQuest in the late 90's