Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[Tim_4]

Interesting. The available room nights works out to about 27,000 rooms. The room nights booked is about 22,000. DLR has a little over 2,000 rooms. Lets assume they were all available all year and at 100% occupancy. In that scenario WDW had 25,000 rooms available and 20,000 rooms booked or an occupancy rate of 80%. I guess that's still a big tick down from peak levels, but still a pretty solid number for WDW.

That's what I was saying a few pages back with the DAAR post. There's this perception that WDW is in some kind of death spiral because Harry Potter makes everyone want to stay on I-drive, but that just isn't so. Maybe it should be. It might be logical. It would make sense. But it isn't. A lot of the "Spirited" crowd want it to be so because they think WDW needs to hit rock bottom so they can get Joe Rohde for CEO and have Beastly Kingdom opened by 2014, but that doesn't make it any more true.

 

[Tim_4]

We'll know for sure on May 6th during the next earnings report.

Attendance is only ever reported on a "Domestic Parks" level, if at all. I doubt you hear a growth percentage for WDW unless it's VERY good.

 

[MattM]

I haven't followed all of the threads around here as closely in the past few months so its possible I missed this. I did listen to the earnings call and read through the press release and I don't remember hearing Iger or anyone else talk about FLE in any negative way. I thought they actually talked about it being successful and attendance at WDW actually being up.

The May 6 report will be the first report that FLE will have had any real impact upon. It had only been open around a month or two during the last report, so it would really be tough to tell.

 

[alissafalco]

Edit: They don't look at the price, period. They pick the one they like best, regardless of price, and pay whatever they're told by the booking agent.

Really? You have proof of this? Or is this just what you think about wealthy people? Usually wealthy people are the cheapest and the most concerned about $$.

 

[MattM]

Attendance is only ever reported on a "Domestic Parks" level, if at all. I doubt you hear a growth percentage for WDW unless it's VERY good.

Very true. And you're right, they generally only announce attendance gains at specific parks if they have a positive reason to do so, i.e. attendance up at DCA due to CL.

 

[GoofGoof]

Really? You have proof of this? Or is this just what you think about wealthy people? Usually wealthy people are the cheapest and the most concerned about $$.

I know a bunch of them. Worked for a few in my day too.

 

[GoofGoof]

The May 6 report will be the first report that FLE will have had any real impact upon. It had only been open around a month or two during the last report, so it would really be tough to tell.

This one should be interesting. I think they will definitely get a question or 2 after the call and if they dodge the questions then it means things are not good. If numbers are up they will be tripping over themselves to answer the WDW attendance questions. I think it will be pretty easy to read between the lines on this one.

 

[Tim_4]

Really? You have proof of this? Or is this just what you think about wealthy people? Usually wealthy people are the cheapest and the most concerned about $$.

I didn't say "wealthy people." I said "Grand Floridian guests." I have friends who are managers in the call centers where these folks make their orders and yes, it's all true. They tack on recreation, floral packages, in-room daycare, concierge access, and other premium features at the slightest suggestion from the sales agents.

Obviously I'm super duper way over generalizing but Disney markets their product to the "rule," not the "exception."

 

[alissafalco]

Obviously I'm super duper way over generalizing ."

Yes you are.

 

[asianway]

The May 6 report will be the first report that FLE will have had any real impact upon. It had only been open around a month or two during the last report, so it would really be tough to tell.

I think it's May 7, they usually don't release on Monday

 

[Tim_4]

Yes you are.

That's what marketing and product portfolios are all about. Companies super duper way over generalize and offer products to meet the needs of mushy, faceless groups of people, not individuals. Then they try and convince you they're doing the opposite. If you guess right, you'll be successful.

 

[Tim_4]

I think it's May 7, they usually don't release on Monday

The Walt Disney Company will discuss its Fiscal second quarter 2013 financial results on

Tuesday, May 7, 2013
at 5:00 p.m. EDT / 2:00 p.m. PDT

Speakers to include:

Bob Iger
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Jay Rasulo
Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Moderated by,
Lowell Singer
Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

 

[MattM]

I think it's May 7, they usually don't release on Monday

You may be right on that. I was looking on analyst estimate page on Yahoo Finance, it said May 6 but the quote summary page said May 7.

 

[MattM]

This one should be interesting. I think they will definitely get a question or 2 after the call and if they dodge the questions then it means things are not good. If numbers are up they will be tripping over themselves to answer the WDW attendance questions. I think it will be pretty easy to read between the lines on this one.

I think you are exactly right.

 

[Tim_4]

I think you are exactly right.

I generally agree, but we also need to be careful not to jump to conclusions. Attendance is highly confidential even in the best of times so I wouldn't expect anything TOO specific either way.

 

[MattM]

I really didn't mean for you to take offense. By "afford it" I mean Grand Floridan guests don't use words like "splitting the cost four ways," "insane," " not worth the way extra $$," "fraction of the price," or "not worth it."

Edit: They don't look at the price, period. They pick the one they like best, regardless of price, and pay whatever they're told by the booking agent.

This is true.

 

[MattM]

Really? You have proof of this? Or is this just what you think about wealthy people? Usually wealthy people are the cheapest and the most concerned about $$.

On day to day items. Vacations, usually not so much.

 

[MattM]

I generally agree, but we also need to be careful not to jump to conclusions. Attendance is highly confidential even in the best of times so I wouldn't expect anything TOO specific either way.

True. I wouldn't expect to ever hear an exact figure, but rather a y/y percentage increase if applicable.

 

[Tim_4]

True. I wouldn't expect to ever hear an exact figure, but rather a y/y percentage increase if applicable.

I think that's standard fare in the annual report, but I'm not sure about the quarterly call. Like we said though, it'll probably still be "domestic parks."

EDIT: Fun fact... DLR has much more flexibility to "massage" their attendance numbers because they can play with cast and AP blockout dates. There's much less variability in blockouts in FL than there is in CA, and FL almost never blocks out cast themselves. Maingate (guest) passes might be blocked out in FL, but DLR will block the cast themselves from time to time.

 

[MattM]

I think that's standard fare in the annual report, but I'm not sure about the quarterly call. Like we said though, it'll probably still be "domestic parks."

EDIT: Fun fact... DLR has much more flexibility to "massage" their attendance numbers because they can play with cast and AP blockout dates. There's much less variability in blockouts in FL than there is in CA, and FL almost never blocks out cast themselves. Maingate (guest) passes might be blocked out in FL, but DLR will block the cast themselves from time to time.

I don't think its usually in the written presentation, but when Rasulo (or whoever) is talking on the call he will slip some numbers in, or if an analyst asks a more direct question.