I'm three pages behind so I apologize if this has been said, but...
Of course that 10 years is only an example, but let's say they internally want to see positive ROI over the 10 year period. As you noted, that's $100M per year average. How many customers do they have a year? Can't really base it on turnstyle clicks, but would 10M be a fair estimate (probably low?). If so, that's only $10 increased spending per customer per year. Now, once they fully roll out the project, they will have multiple positives they are looking for...
1) get more people onsite (resort stays = more money for Disney)
2) get more people happier in the parks due to FP+ and better crowd control (happy customers spend more on food and spur of the moment purchases)
3) increased spending due to understanding the consumer wants, needs, high points and low points (that nasty data mining actually being used) and
4) increased spending due to localized marketing with texts, notifications (my bet is this is coming soon)
All those points can lead to increased consumer spending. If it's $20/yr, they double their money. What happens if it's $50/year? Now I think we're starting to see how they could see some really good ROI on this project. But, it may take some time for everything to get rolling. Plus, as with many major projects like this, corporations tend to long haul their ROI. So, the first couple of years will have lower ROI and future years will have much higher ROI as the system matures and they add more features. NextGen is a whole new outlook on how WDW interacts with their consumers.
You know how else to increase guest spending by more than 11% without spending 2 billion dollars?
1) Unique park merchandise.
2) Unique hotel merchandise.
3) Unique ride merchandise that caters to all age groups, not just the flighty minded 4 year olds. The shop by the Haunted Mansion last May catered to those 3-6 and 40-60 and no one in between. HM themed lollipops, flashy things, mirrors, and then $150 gargoyles and $200 crystal balls. C'mon Disney. Do better. Nothing for the up and coming crowd, the newly married couples, etc?
It's a lofty goal, but doable via multiple streams.
1) Increased on-site bookings
2) Increased spending on drinks and meals... Just an example - family may normally get to the park in the morning, tour, have lunch, tour some more and then head back to the resort for a meal offsite or in their room. However, now, they have a FP+ for the fireworks / late night ride and stay in the park and eat dinner.
3) Increased spending on souvenirs - localized text from Disney when they walk out of Mouse Gear without a purchase with a 10% coupon good for 2 hours. Head back in and make a spur of the moment purchase.
4) Increased length of stay -- planning their vacation, make their FP+ selections, and decide they want another day to be sure they have passes for other attractions they didn't have earlier.
5) Ease/opportunity of spending - I'd like to find an article I read a while back about loyalty cards with 0% financing specials and how much it increased spending in the moment. We all know that people fall for those opportunities where businesses hold out a hook and people grab - financing specials, coupons, quick options, etc. People that pull dollar bills out of their wallet spend less than people that pull out their credit card. Reduce that barrier even more - hold up the magic band, and there will be increased spending. Amazon didn't patent the one click purchase just for the fun of it!
Aaaaaaand again.
1) Make people want to stay at your hotels, plan and simple. It's all about the $$$$.
2) Unique food and drinks to quick service locations and hotels. If there was just one place in the MK that offered a ramen cabbage salad, you bet I'd hike there for that specifically. Instead, its all generic crap, recycled ad nauseum, all over the park. What about those people (like me) who can't stand hamburgers and hotdogs and greasy fries for more than... one sitting?
3)See above.
4) See #1...
5)I dunno dude. I find it very easy to whip my debit card out and have no problem using it. I don't think people are so dense that they need coupons and programs and rewards and benefits and what have you. I don't see the magic band making people suddenly forget that bottom dollar number in their bank account and spend freely. People still think within budgets (at least, I hope they do) and being able to swipe their wrist over a scanner isn't going to temporarily blind them from what they're actually spending.
I'm not arguing or disagreeing with you-I'm totally with you on your points above but really, was a $2 BILLION magic band really worth it?
I'm thinking Disney went about this all wrong. And this guy I think is gonna be the scapegoat for it. I'm pretty sure I remember a certain Spirit saying someone is gonna take the fall for this, but I don't recall him pegging down a name. Does anyone have the patience to hunt that down in one of his previous posts?