CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
I agree with all of this.
- I think it's unlikely they lose on facts. The case is pretty straightforward, and DeSantis did nothing to help his case with his book, his repeated statements, etc.
- I also think it's unlikely they lose on standing. Maybe if it were just the dissolution of RCID like the original bill was, but with the whole set of facts
- The creation of a new governor-appointed board with taxing authority, which there is no president for in the state
- The bill to void the contracts, which applies only to Disney
- The bill to inspect monorails, which also applies only to Disney (unless it applies to no one at all based on the mistake made)
- The statements of the board members that they intend to influence Disney's content
- The statements about building a prison, etc.
- I think Disney could partially lose the 1A portion of the case on the law in one potential issue - legislative intent. Courts have been hesitant to infer legislative intent in past cases due to the number of individuals involved in passing legislation, etc. This is the one area that makes me nervous. Still, there has never been a case with so many blatant statements from many legislators on how they were punishing "woke" Disney.
- Even if Disney loses on that part on those grounds regarding the passage of the law, I think they win on the execution of the law by the executive. It's abundantly clear that DeSantis, who has the power over the board, is targeting Disney for speech. So I could see a scenario where the court upholds the law, but throws out the board or severely constrians the board, or puts them under a judicial watchdog..
- I still think the most likely scenario given the facts is that the whole set of laws is tossed, we go back to the pre-2022 state, and a consent agreement is required to not touch things for a period of 10 years or so...
Legislative intent will be interesting. DeSantis' motivations were clear. Some legislators' intent was clear. But the intent of the legislaTORS isn't the same thing as the intent of the legisltaTURE.