News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[LittleBuford]

You’ve missed the problem they’ve had with “polling” the last 20 years or so, huh?

It is a myth that polling is fundamentally less accurate than it used to be. There is a lot of literature on the topic, which is beyond the scope of this thread anyway, but here’s just one recent article:

The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[mysto]

To evaluate poll result you need to know who gathered the data and reported it as well as who answered. Frequently this information is unavailable, "people polled say that...".

In modern times polls are used to dictate public opinion as often as they're used to discover it.

Yes there are still professional polling groups that are very serious about their reputations and do good work.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It is a myth that polling is fundamentally less accurate than it used to be. There is a lot of literature on the topic, which is beyond the scope of this thread anyway, but here’s just one recent article:

The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022

Let’s give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of…

fivethirtyeight.com

You mean from Nate Silver? The pollster that hasn’t been incredibly accurate in recent cycles?


But beyond that…the way hack polls are conducted has skewed because they don’t take into account how information now deciminates.

Any “data” that indicates public opinion is remotely on floridas side - except for the small, dwindling fiefdom that it was designed to rob money from in the first place - is false.

Don’t believe me…watch it play.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To evaluate poll result you need to know who gathered the data and reported it as well as who answered. Frequently this information is unavailable, "people polled say that...".

In modern times polls are used to dictate public opinion as often as they're used to discover it.

The “who answered” is the problem…which is why pollsters resist getting into it in detail

 

[tissandtully]

Scientifically conducted polls, which this appears to be, are not useless; they are, on the contrary, often quite reliable. I see no reason to doubt the data given how ill informed people are on the issue. As we’ve seen repeatedly from what’s posted in this thread, the notion that DeSantis is merely levelling the playing field by depriving Disney of unfair special advantages is very widespread indeed. I’m not the least bit surprised that a good number of Democrats, regardless of how they feel about DeSantis himself, may have subscribed to the view that Disney is finally having to play by the same rules as everyone else.

Polls are only as good as the way the questions are phrased.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Polls are only as good as the way the questions are phrased.

Indeed…for the last year, we have seen the results of what 50 years of sandbagged poll questions result in when they hit the public policy, day to day life.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The poll may be reflecting general negativity about Disney’s greed from many news stories last year. People who don’t know what is going here specifically but reacting to ‘big greedy company’. How many people outside Florida have followed the RCID story?

This is a fair point…Disney has been on a 5 year run of pretty bad PR…by their standards

 

[Notypeo]

Polls are only as good as the way the questions are phrased.

This is a huge issue in “issue polling,” and it’s compounded here by the technical complexity of the underlying RCID issue. Who doesn’t oppose removing “special tax treatment” or whatever the precise phrase was in the poll we’re all talking about? If you move the language around just a bit you could get very different results.

 

[Chi84]

It could simply be that those of us who post multiple times a day on a Disney fan site are not representative of how the majority of adults feel on this subject.

The message boards are terrible for discussing anything nuanced. People can generally support a politician, but disagree strongly with some of his actions. People can generally support Disney's current direction with content, but disagree with certain actions or programming.

I consider myself pretty liberal on social issues, but there was a Disney+ video posted in another thread that I found inaccurate, divisive and age-inappropriate for the intended audience. That doesn't mean I no longer support Disney's trend toward diversity and inclusiveness. It means someone, in my opinion, exercised bad judgment with that particular content.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Recent polls tend to be relatively accurate to within a few percentage points.

The problem is that this nation is so evenly divided, that even a swing of 4% (the typical margin of error) can make a huge difference in election results.

So then the narrative becomes “polls are inaccurate” even though the results were within the margin of error.

As pointed out above…issue polling is far less trustworthy than campaign polling

And the latter isn’t all that reliable either…

If you miss a national election by 4%…it would be more than 6,000,000 votes…

Or Wisconsin…in practical terms

 

[ParentsOf4]

The message boards are terrible for discussing anything nuanced. People can generally support a politician, but disagree strongly with some of his actions. People can generally support Disney's current direction with content, but disagree with certain actions or programming.

I consider myself pretty liberal on social issues, but there was a Disney+ video posted in another thread that I found inaccurate, divisive and age-inappropriate for the intended audience. That doesn't mean I no longer support Disney's trend toward diversity and inclusiveness. It means someone, in my opinion, exercised bad judgment with that particular content.

Sadly, the majority of adults are not nuanced. They believe what they believe and no amount of reasoned discussion is going to change their minds.

We are stuck in a state of confirmation bias. We only listen to those who already agree with us.

My alma mater was in the news a while ago for shutting down a speaker they disagreed with before the event even started. These are supposed to be among the most brilliant legal minds of the next generation, yet they refuse to let someone with a different viewpoint speak.

Nowadays, if you disagree with me, you’re either “homophobic” or “woke” or, at best, ill-informed. It immediately jumps to name calling. It’s a return to United States 19th century politics.

Look at how many on this thread immediately attacked the poll as flawed, rather than objectively reflect on what it might mean.

DeSantis and Disney are both taking casualties. The only way to end the casualties is to end the war.

 

[LittleBuford]

Polls are only as good as the way the questions are phrased.

Here is the question asked by this particular poll:

ESG5 Florida governor Ron DeSantis has tried to limit Disney's autonomy in Florida by appointing an oversight board and threatening to remove its special tax status. DeSantis' actions are widely considered a response to Disney's opposition to the legislation that DeSantis signed in 2022 that prohibited elementary school classroom discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity. Do you support or oppose DeSantis' actions?​

Topline – April

harvardharrispoll.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sadly, the majority of adults are not nuanced. They believe what they believe and no amount of reasoned discussion is going to change their minds.

We are stuck in a state of confirmation bias. We only listen to those who already agree with us.

My alma mater was in the news a while ago about shutting down a speaker they disagreed with before the event even started. These are supposed to be among the most brilliant legal minds of the next generation, yet they refuse to let someone with a different viewpoint speak.

Nowadays, if you disagree with me, you’re either “homophonic” or “woke” or, at best, ill-informed. It immediately jumps to name calling. It’s a return to United States 19th century politics.

Look at how many on this thread immediately attacked the poll as flawed, rather than objectively reflect on what it might mean.

DeSantis and Disney are both taking casualties. The only way to end the casualties is to end the war.

Stanford?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Here is the question asked by this particular poll:

ESG5 Florida governor Ron DeSantis has tried to limit Disney's autonomy in Florida by appointing an oversight board and threatening to remove its special tax status. DeSantis' actions are widely considered a response to Disney's opposition to the legislation that DeSantis signed in 2022 that prohibited elementary school classroom discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity. Do you support or oppose DeSantis' actions?​

Topline – April

harvardharrispoll.com

Jesus…that question is skewed off the jump.

The first two lines are designed to imply that Disney is a self ruling tax cheat…
…which has nothing to do with the history of RCID at all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m a Conservative Who Got Heckled at Yale Law School. But Not by Who You Think.

The anti-free speech culture we see at law schools today permeates the legal world, and on both sides of the political spectrum.

www.politico.com

…oh THAT place?

We can’t be friends anymore…you’re too dumb

 

[lewisc]

remove its special tax status

People responding to the poll don't know special tax status means Disney pays MORE in taxes..

 

[LittleBuford]

People responding to the poll don't know special tax status means Disney pays MORE in taxes..

Which was the point I was getting at in my original post on the topic, where I referred to how ill informed most people were on the topic.

 

[LittleBuford]

I agree the question sets the respondent up to look sympathetically on DeSantis and suspiciously on Disney. I don’t think this is intentional—one could argue that the wording is all literally true, even if misleading—but it’s unfortunate and concerning nonetheless.

 

[Chi84]

Who is able to “appeal decisions”?

Apparently "a person." I wouldn't be too concerned about this until we see what happens.

 

[Chi84]

I agree the question sets the respondent up to look sympathetically on DeSantis and suspiciously on Disney. I don’t think this is intentional—one could argue that the wording is all literally true, even if misleading—but it’s unfortunate and concerning nonetheless.

That's what I said . "[T]he question sets the respondent up to look sympathetically on DeSantis and suspiciously on Disney" equals "Yeah, that poll is crap."