Predictions for returns of Annual Passholders

[lumberguy5]

Overall, I think some form of program will return by the end of June considering how lackluster ticket sales and reservations have been going.

As of my writing this, the only day completely sold out is June 5th. Everything else has some availability at one park or the other. I am not sure about the bucket for resort guests though, I hear that is a separate one, but not sure as I can't see that online anywhere, so it is possible that has some availability for June 5.

The point is everything should be completely sold out for at least the first couple of weeks right now, but it isn't.

Resort bucket is fully open, but I have been told that hotel guests aren't using it. Ticket sales for DL are strong for May, a little less than half the month is sold out, and more of the month is out of 1 park per day tickets. DCA doesnt get much love until Avengers Campus, and then its limited to weekends.

Been tracking the days and it looks like weekends went, then weekdays by date and price. The Tier 2s went, then it was May 17 and forward for DL selling out of 1Parks (avoiding the T5 pricing).

If a pass gets added to fix the demand, it will likely be a variant of that Costco DCA only pass.

 

[fctiger]

I expect them back sometime next year. Or at least the membership program. Call me skeptical but I remember when GE opened an entire whole year now and when the crowds didn't show up as planned, people treated it like it was a sign of the apocalypse.

As someone who has never been bothered by the fact these parks are just busy because they are really wildly popular places to visit but also think it's good they can limit the crowding at times as well, last summer kind of proved the dilemma Disney faces. On one hand I thought lack of crowds because limiting APs, at least for that summer, was a good idea. GE wasn't swamped like people thought, but it still had healthy attendance, just not on the level the place felt suffocating. I thought that was the best of both worlds.

But apparently it wasn't. Not just for us arm chair analysts but Disney themselves. They did panic and tried to find ways to bring people in more. Because of issues like this, I don't see APs ever going away. Yes modified, more restricted, etc, but never go away because EVERY other Disney park has APs still. Yes they may have paused selling new ones but that's only because of the situation. Once everything goes back to normal, they will sell them again and aggressively push them.

There were so many ways for Disney to get a handle on the old ones. Just put a cap on how many you sell, done. They NEVER did that. The funny thing is the one pass they would stop selling to new people, that would be brought back again once attendance dipped. I think for now, they understand capacity will have to remain lower. But a year from now? I see things going back to what they were, at least closer to what they were.

But if they make a program where you have to reserve your tickets in advance and less days, that's probably a good thing. And less people will probably get them anyway if you can't just go anytime you want. There is a middle ground between not having them and swamping the parks with APers.

 

[cmwade77]

Resort bucket is fully open, but I have been told that hotel guests aren't using it. Ticket sales for DL are strong for May, a little less than half the month is sold out, and more of the month is out of 1 park per day tickets. DCA doesnt get much love until Avengers Campus, and then its limited to weekends.

Been tracking the days and it looks like weekends went, then weekdays by date and price. The Tier 2s went, then it was May 17 and forward for DL selling out of 1Parks (avoiding the T5 pricing).

If a pass gets added to fix the demand, it will likely be a variant of that Costco DCA only pass.

That is far slower than it should be, demand will die down soon, so really this isn't high.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

It's disappointing that people don't seem to understand why the rule is in place. It's to prevent someone from another state with an increasing case count, from bringing their virus outbreak over here.

I work in Vegas and there’s tens of thousands of Californians here every day, mingling with people from all over the world, and then going back to CA.

This rule is like using a colander to prevent a flood, it helps because it removes a little water but the vast majority is getting through.

That is far slower than it should be, demand will die down soon, so really this isn't high.

I came here specifically to revise my prediction, I had said 2022 but after watching initial sales I now think APs will be back much sooner, maybe as soon as a few months. If they can’t sell out 20% occupancy with a year of pent up demand there’s no way they’ll fill the parks at 100% capacity.

 

[Tamandua]

If they can’t sell out 20% occupancy with a year of pent up demand there’s no way they’ll fill the parks at 100% capacity.

Part of the reason why the demand isn't there right now is because everyone heard about the long waits to get tickets on the first day, and they've heard about the pent up demand, and they just figure it's going to be full/crowded no matter what, so why bother. That's why the whole smaller crowd strategy to bring in higher spenders would never work. That strategy is always undermined by headlines like "Disneyland fans waits as long as 10 hours to buy tickets".

 

[chadwpalm]

I came here specifically to revise my prediction, I had said 2022 but after watching initial sales I now think APs will be back much sooner, maybe as soon as a few months. If they can’t sell out 20% occupancy with a year of pent up demand there’s no way they’ll fill the parks at 100% capacity.

The first 60 days offered no Tier 1 pricing. I think the sticker shock of paying full price, along with continued caution about Covid (we can't not factor that in) is why the bookings aren't filling up right now. I think as more people get vaccinated and non-Californians are allowed to go, that will help. Disney can't lower any Tiers right now because those who already paid would need to get refunded the difference and Disney won't want to do that.

However, as days roll out they can see the trends and offer more lower-tiered days if necessary. Mathematically, 50,000 people paying $104 is more money than 30,000 paying $154. They've gotta find the right balance and it's going to take time to do that.

 

[chadwpalm]

Part of the reason why the demand isn't there right now is because everyone heard about the long waits to get tickets on the first day, and they've heard about the pent up demand, and they just figure it's going to be full/crowded no matter what, so why bother. That's why the whole smaller crowd strategy to bring in higher spenders would never work. That strategy is always undermined by headlines like "Disneyland fans waits as long as 10 hours to buy tickets".

Stories like this coming from the LA Times don't help either. They talk about the craziness that happened Thursday and bury at the bottom that they finally got reservations on Friday, but never say that it was less than a 30-minute wait by then. People read the headlines or first couple paragraphs and immediately decide "I'm out".

Inside the maddening 28-hour odyssey to buy tickets for Disneyland's reopening

How mounting hours, crashing web pages and disappointing updates derailed our TV critic's long-delayed journey to the happiest #*&$%!! place on Earth.

www.latimes.com

 

[Tamandua]

Stories like this coming from the LA Times don't help either. They talk about the craziness that happened Thursday and bury at the bottom that they finally got reservations on Friday, but never say that it was less than a 30-minute wait by then. People read the headlines or first couple paragraphs and immediately decide "I'm out".

Inside the maddening 28-hour odyssey to buy tickets for Disneyland's reopening

How mounting hours, crashing web pages and disappointing updates derailed our TV critic's long-delayed journey to the happiest #*&$%!! place on Earth.

www.latimes.com

These multi hour Disney queues for tickets and merchandise are pretty pathetic. They could certainly scale up their servers to a capacity where even if they needed a queue, they could get everyone in and out much, much faster. I feel like Disney just likes the hype that comes with "Fans waited X hours to buy Y." But that might be turning against them now that they're trying to sell millions of full price tickets instead of a run of 200 overpriced straight-to-ebay collectibles.

 

[chadwpalm]

These multi hour Disney queues for tickets and merchandise are pretty pathetic. They could certainly scale up their servers to a capacity where even if they needed a queue, they could get everyone in and out much, much faster. I feel like Disney just likes the hype that comes with "Fans waited X hours to buy Y." But that might be turning against them now that they're trying to sell millions of full price tickets instead of a run of 200 overpriced straight-to-ebay collectibles.

I can't speak to their reservation system, but for ticket sales they may have needed to slow the queues so that the credit card merchant they are using didn't get overwhelmed with payments. Disney doesn't have control over the bandwidth of the merchant portals. I think this was the #1 bottleneck.

 

[lumberguy5]

The first 60 days offered no Tier 1 pricing. I think the sticker shock of paying full price, along with continued caution about Covid (we can't not factor that in) is why the bookings aren't filling up right now. I think as more people get vaccinated and non-Californians are allowed to go, that will help. Disney can't lower any Tiers right now because those who already paid would need to get refunded the difference and Disney won't want to do that.

However, as days roll out they can see the trends and offer more lower-tiered days if necessary. Mathematically, 50,000 people paying $104 is more money than 30,000 paying $154. They've gotta find the right balance and it's going to take time to do that.

Current status is that every weekend day and every non Tier 5 day in May except for 1, is out of 1parks for DL. The Tier 5 sticker shock is probably real for weekdays.

 

[fctiger]

Part of the reason why the demand isn't there right now is because everyone heard about the long waits to get tickets on the first day, and they've heard about the pent up demand, and they just figure it's going to be full/crowded no matter what, so why bother. That's why the whole smaller crowd strategy to bring in higher spenders would never work. That strategy is always undermined by headlines like "Disneyland fans waits as long as 10 hours to buy tickets".

The irony is that's exactly what happened with GE as well. People keep saying last summer no one showed up because they didn't care about GE when that really wasn't exactly true. Sure some didn't of course but a lot of was because everyone was predicting it was going to be 10 hour lines just to get in the place. It was a foregone conclusion the land was going to swamped at least for the first two years the way people went on about it and that in term was going to make DL overall insufferable. And that scared a lot of people away. Then add to the fact (as I mentioned) they limited some of the APs to literally avoid some of the big pent up expectations (and of course for all the out of town tourists and locals who just want to go for the day to get a crack at it first) and it didn't quite work out as expected.

I mean for the people who did go it was amazing! Even I expected the MF ride to be 2-3 hour waits for the whole summer and I don't think we waited more then 20-30 minutes that entire period and we went on it about a dozen times total. I do remember standing in line for it for an hour in the winter period when things were back to normal but summer was a great time to not only go to DL but just check out their big shiny new land not feel like you were in a sardine can.

But I honestly do feel Disney didn't really expect this. And I'm reading in some places capacity is not even 25% in the opening days but closer to 15%. Who knows if that is true, but if so, it's saying a lot. Only a few days are completely sold out and that's really the opening weekends of AC. Again, this could all be temporary. Maybe when non-Californians get the chance to go, it gets closer to opening, etc, things can flip fast. But what's crazy is two days have gone by now and from what I can tell not a single new day has sold out for any park. It takes just one minute to get reservations now and it's really quiet. And as I have to keep reminding people (for years now) DL doesn't live in a vacuum. It has tons of other parks it has to compete with in the same area and all those other places are offering both APS and lower prices in general. That could simply be a huge factor too, people getting a better deal in other places. DL is a popular place, but it doesn't mean it's the only place people care about when you have tons of options out there.

 

[chadwpalm]

Current status is that every weekend day and every non Tier 5 day in May except for 1, is out of 1parks for DL. The Tier 5 sticker shock is probably real for weekdays.

Yeah, weekdays are usually the lighter days while school is still in session, so they were pricing on perceived demand. There are only 7 days left in May that you can get 1-park tickets for DL. I kind of expected weekdays to fill up more in late June after school was out for most kids, but I don't think a lot of people are planning family vacations right now due to Covid and most of the reservations are from the people who have missed the parks over the past year.

 

[Tamandua]

The irony is that's exactly what happened with GE as well. People keep saying last summer no one showed up because they didn't care about GE when that really wasn't exactly true. Sure some didn't of course but a lot of was because everyone was predicting it was going to be 10 hour lines just to get in the place. It was a foregone conclusion the land was going to swamped at least for the first two years the way people went on about it and that in term was going to make DL overall insufferable. And that scared a lot of people away. Then add to the fact (as I mentioned) they limited some of the APs to literally avoid some of the big pent up expectations (and of course for all the out of town tourists and locals who just want to go for the day to get a crack at it first) and it didn't quite work out as expected.

I mean for the people who did go it was amazing! Even I expected the MF ride to be 2-3 hour waits for the whole summer and I don't think we waited more then 20-30 minutes that entire period and we went on it about a dozen times total. I do remember standing in line for it for an hour in the winter period when things were back to normal but summer was a great time to not only go to DL but just check out their big shiny new land not feel like you were in a sardine can.

But I honestly do feel Disney didn't really expect this. And I'm reading in some places capacity is not even 25% in the opening days but closer to 15%. Who knows if that is true, but if so, it's saying a lot. Only a few days are completely sold out and that's really the opening weekends of AC. Again, this could all be temporary. Maybe when non-Californians get the chance to go, it gets closer to opening, etc, things can flip fast. But what's crazy is two days have gone by now and from what I can tell not a single day has sold out for any park. It takes just one minute to get reservations now and it's really quiet. And as I have to keep reminding people (for years now) DL doesn't live in a vacuum. It has tons of other parks it has to compete with in the same area and all those other places are offering both APS and lower prices in general. That could simply be a huge factor too, people getting a better deal in other places. DL is a popular place, but it doesn't mean it's the only place people care about when you have tons of options out there.

There's a lot of factors. Perceived crowding, price, shorter hours, fewer attractions, fewer dining options, disgruntled legacy passholders feeling burned, competition from other parks, competition from other activities opening at the same time, people not wanting to wear masks in the heat all day, covid fear hysteria, etc etc...

It was pretty brazen of Disney to ignore all of this and just assume people would flock to the parks and pay premium prices for less.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Part of the reason why the demand isn't there right now is because everyone heard about the long waits to get tickets on the first day, and they've heard about the pent up demand, and they just figure it's going to be full/crowded no matter what, so why bother. That's why the whole smaller crowd strategy to bring in higher spenders would never work. That strategy is always undermined by headlines like "Disneyland fans waits as long as 10 hours to buy tickets".

The $209 ticket price for a one day park hopper doesn’t help either, if you can’t go for at least two to three days (to get more reasonable rates) it doesn’t make a lot of sense, IMHO. Also doesn’t help they are only open to CA residents at the moment so those of us from out of state who spend multiple days are not allowed yet.

Now that I’ve seen the day prices my $1500 pass that I used 25-30 times a year the last few years seems like a steal.

 

[fctiger]

There's a lot of factors. Perceived crowding, price, shorter hours, fewer attractions, fewer dining options, disgruntled legacy passholders feeling burned, competition from other parks, competition from other activities opening at the same time, people not wanting to wear masks in the heat all day, covid fear hysteria, etc etc...

It was pretty brazen of Disney to ignore all of this and just assume people would flock to the parks and pay premium prices for less.

Of course and I said these things myself. But the crazy thing is most people still thought many of these weren't going to be huge factors for so many out there because the parks have been closed for so long. And I'll be honest that included myself when I saw just how fast Taste of Disney sold out. That entire event sold out in mere hours for what basically amounted to walking in a dead DCA park and eating some food. If people were willing to snatch up that for $75 a pop, I couldn't imagine what it would be like when DL itself opened (with actual rides).

But that's the other thing, the parks are opening full time again. There are some who wants to be there ASAP. But there are plenty of others like my family who prefer to wait it out to just have the park return more to normal, especially given the amount of money we're paying for it. If we had APs as before, sure, maybe we would try to go sooner, but even then I don't see myself in a rush to see it. I've always said no matter when the parked reopened, next month or six months ago I was going to wait at least 1-2 months if not longer before I went and that is still very much the case.

 

[fctiger]

The $209 ticket price for a one day park hopper doesn’t help either, if you can’t go for at least two to three days (to get more reasonable rates) it doesn’t make a lot of sense, IMHO. Also doesn’t help they are only open to CA residents at the moment so those of us from out of state who spend multiple days are not allowed yet.

Now that I’ve seen the day prices my $1500 pass that I used 25-30 times a year the last few years seems like a steal.

I still don't understand what is the logic of forcing people to use multi day park hopper tickets in just two weeks? I love APs, but honestly, if the PHs at least had an option where they didn't expire or at last lasted 6-12 months, I would just buy two of those a year and probably be fine. A five day PH is a little under $500. It's not exactly as good as an AP, but for many who just use an AP to basically go once a month at most, it's a decent deal. They would sell more of those to just regular people if they didn't have to use them so quickly and spread out the days more. WDW use to have unexpired PH, but I think they even stopped doing it there too.

I guess you can argue it was a way to force people to just buy APs, but now that those are dead (for now), then yeah.

 

[Tamandua]

If we had APs as before, sure, maybe we would try to go sooner, but even then I don't see myself in a rush to see it. I've always said no matter when the parked reopened, next month or six months ago I was going to wait at least 1-2 months if not longer before I went and that is still very much the case.

My only concern is that Kim Irvine will ruin the entire park before I make it back.

 

[Tamandua]

Could be as well that with pent up demand, people got tired of waiting and spent their money at wdw instead?

That's definitely happened. In mid February I was on a plane from LAX to MCO and it was full of people talking about going to Disney World. I'm sure most of the flights from LAX to MCO over the last nine months or so have been full of Disneyland people going to Disney world.

 

[el_super]

I still don't understand what is the logic of forcing people to use multi day park hopper tickets in just two weeks?

The park hoppers and APs are fundamentally different products. APs were deeply discounted to attract a group that was more "value conscious", while the Park Hoppers were only moderately discounted in order to increase LOS and give flexability to vacation goers.

Now that APs are gone, merging them does make some sense, and would be a good compromise between deep discount and still offering something to locals. I would think though, since they would still want to maximize the revenue from vacation goers, they would need to distinguish the prices and maybe offer a special "So Cal Only Park Hopper" with a slightly bigger discount. Kind of like the extension of the TWOfer.

Could be as well that with pent up demand, people got tired of waiting and spent their money at wdw instead?

Eh probably not all that much. WDW isn't up to full capacity yet either. I think for DLR you still have a local audience that is concerned about unnecessary virus transmission and is unaccustomed to having to make reservations.

 

[mickEblu]

I work in Vegas and there’s tens of thousands of Californians here every day, mingling with people from all over the world, and then going back to CA.

This rule is like using a colander to prevent a flood, it helps because it removes a little water but the vast majority is getting through.



I came here specifically to revise my prediction, I had said 2022 but after watching initial sales I now think APs will be back much sooner, maybe as soon as a few months. If they can’t sell out 20% occupancy with a year of pent up demand there’s no way they’ll fill the parks at 100% capacity.

I wonder how many people have the desire to go to the parks but don’t feel quite safe yet. Then you may also have a group of people who also want to go to the park but don’t feel it’s worth the prices without entertainment and another group who doesn’t want to deal with masks etc. I think it’s too soon to tell and we’ll have a much better idea by the end of the summer. By then, i think Disney will have the data they need to determine how quickly they need to bring back a membership or AP program.