Predictions for returns of Annual Passholders

[TheRealBobIger]

Base on how TDA likes to panic if they don't see what they like. I have a really good feeling that AP's (or whatever they will end up calling them) will be back a lot sooner than later. Especially if California does reopen there economy fully on June 15th and the pent up demand is reduced significantly. I'm willing to put down $100 Disney dollars that there will be a special announcement around the end of June they will be starting AP's again to celebrate Disneyland's birthday and the return of guests around July 17th.

 

[Tamandua]

I would say June except Avengers campus might drive attendance enough to postpone it until July. No later than July for sure.

 

[1HAPPYGHOSTHOST]

Hopefully never. I think they will have a membership like knotts where it does not matter when you purchased it, once the end of the year comes you have to renew. i think it will have less consecutive days you can visit. there will be restrictions.

 

[Darkbeer1]

I can see Memberships coming in about a year.

Like DVC, you buy points. Tickets will be based on the Tiers, more points for days expected to be more popular, and a max amount available, similar to the old Flex Pass.

Higher priced Memberships allow every day of the year, based on spaces alloted.

So basically a system that does not allowing visits every day.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Hopefully never. I think they will have a membership like knotts where it does not matter when you purchased it, once the end of the year comes you have to renew. i think it will have less consecutive days you can visit. there will be restrictions.

Knott's doesn't offer Memberships. They have Season Passes.

Six Flags has Memberships of different levels. You agree to make at least 12 monthly payments, then continues until you cancel.

 

[Tamandua]

You don't get to 50% AP attendance on accident. I never understand why people think the AP program was something that got out of hand and Disney somehow lost control... Like the inmates were running the prison. Disney created that situation because that was what they thought was the most profitable scenario at the time. Of course right now while they're limited in capacity they're going to be talking about higher spending non-AP guests, but once things even out they will come back to APs and tell them how much they love them and how much they've missed them and promise that their affair with dirty vacation tourists was meaningless. They've changed, really, and want us to forgive them and take them back.
Of course, legacy passholders will continue to get screwed, but they're used to being in an abusive relationship.

 

[el_super]

Same system as before or different system? Same system: Never.

 

[the_rich]

APs as they've been will never be back.

 

[1HAPPYGHOSTHOST]

You don't get to 50% AP attendance on accident. I never understand why people think the AP program was something that got out of hand and Disney somehow lost control... Like the inmates were running the prison. Disney created that situation because that was what they thought was the most profitable scenario at the time. Of course right now while they're limited in capacity they're going to be talking about higher spending non-AP guests, but once things even out they will come back to APs and tell them how much they love them and how much they've missed them and promise that their affair with dirty vacation tourists was meaningless. They've changed, really, and want us to forgive them and take them back.
Of course, legacy passholders will continue to get screwed, but they're used to being in an abusive relationship.

Because it did get out of hand.

 

[Tamandua]

Because it did get out of hand.

I don't buy it. They were still coming up with new AP perks until the end. AP popcorn refills. The Indiana Jones 25th anniversary event, etc. Why would they keep doing that stuff if they wanted to ease off on APs?

 

[1HAPPYGHOSTHOST]

I don't buy it. They were still coming up with new AP perks until the end. AP popcorn refills. The Indiana Jones 25th anniversary event, etc. Why would they keep doing that stuff if they wanted to ease off on APs?

Because Disney likes money.

 

[CaptinEO]

I don't buy it. They were still coming up with new AP perks until the end. AP popcorn refills. The Indiana Jones 25th anniversary event, etc. Why would they keep doing that stuff if they wanted to ease off on APs?

This wasn't an event. They did a panel in 2015 for Indiana Jones with Tony Baxter and let you ride it after hours. That was an event. And no cost.

The AP benefits got worse over the years. It went from cool events to "go to this corner in Tommorowland and take a photo". Then it turned into "go into California Adventure and get the sticker of the week".

The AP numbers got too big, Disney's fault as that was the MO they operated under for so long. New management would take over, etc. They forgot how to run the park as a tourist destination and made it about appealing to people who bought discounted admission.

 

[CaptinEO]

Bob Chapek in the recent investor meeting himself said that they found happier people means more spending.

They should never return to Annual Passes. Disney does not need them. Disney World has operated without them just fine for nearly a year.

The same people who bought passes can buy tickets. If they want a discount they can get a multiday ticket and a make a week out of it.

 

[Skip]

They'll come back as all Flex Pass options. Probably sooner rather than later given how sales for this "historic moment" are actually going now that the dust has settled.

 

[chadwpalm]

I can see Memberships coming in about a year.

Like DVC, you buy points. Tickets will be based on the Tiers, more points for days expected to be more popular, and a max amount available, similar to the old Flex Pass.

Higher priced Memberships allow every day of the year, based on spaces alloted.

So basically a system that does not allowing visits every day.

I also say this or some kind of tiered flex pass system where the days you can reserve will be based on demand.

 

[chadwpalm]

I don't buy it. They were still coming up with new AP perks until the end. AP popcorn refills. The Indiana Jones 25th anniversary event, etc. Why would they keep doing that stuff if they wanted to ease off on APs?

They offered perks to keep people happy and feeling like they had some sort of perceived value to their passes. If Disney didn't feel the AP program was out of control (not inmates running the prison out of control, but simply selling too many) they wouldn't have discontinued it. They knew they couldn't without an excuse and the Covid shutdown gave it to them.

Had you ever gone to Disneyland between Sept-Dec? Crazy crowds and mostly APs because most people don't do vacations during those months.

 

[Tamandua]

Had you ever gone to Disneyland between Sept-Dec? Crazy crowds and mostly APs because most people don't do vacations during those months.

This is exactly why they need APs.

 

[the_rich]

This is exactly why they need APs.

Except those crowds aren't spending. So they can make those days cheaper, have fewer guests and staff plus make more money.

 

[chadwpalm]

Except those crowds aren't spending. So they can make those days cheaper, have fewer guests and staff plus make more money.

Yup, and since Halloween and Christmas are popular I'd expect locals to get at least one or two (or more) tickets for the season, especially if, as you say, they make those lower Tier days.

 

[CaptinEO]

Except those crowds aren't spending. So they can make those days cheaper, have fewer guests and staff plus make more money.

Yep and if they do this they attract a much bigger audience than just "people who want to go to Disneyland a lot". They should have very competitive deals that even can dip bellow Tier 1 pricing to get people in when they need to.