Predictions for returns of Annual Passholders

[socaljoeyb]

Could be as well that with pent up demand, people got tired of waiting and spent their money at wdw instead?

Lots of my CA friends went to WDW. I wonder if they had higher visits from SoCal than normal.

 

[el_super]

I wonder how many people have the desire to go to the parks but don’t feel quite safe yet.

Anecdotal I know, but I've been invited to the Cast Preview and I'm not at all sure I want to go. I've been vaccinated for awhile but it still feels like an unnecessary risk. Health concerns aside, I also don't want to put up with the "safety" features of COVID Disneyland. Let someone else be the guinea pig.

 

[mickEblu]

Anecdotal I know, but I've been invited to the Cast Preview and I'm not at all sure I want to go. I've been vaccinated for awhile but it still feels like an unnecessary risk. Health concerns aside, I also don't want to put up with the "safety" features of COVID Disneyland. Let someone else be the guinea pig.

Yeah I don’t think they ll know if or when to bring back a membership program until things have normalized a bit more.

I feel safe and wish we could be done with the masks etc. I was a guinea pig at USH this past weekend and my family and I had a great time. With that said my expectations were low and we ve been itching to go on rides again. Hopefully Disneyland will be as pleasant of an experience next month.

 

[DanielBB8]

The park hoppers and APs are fundamentally different products. APs were deeply discounted to attract a group that was more "value conscious", while the Park Hoppers were only moderately discounted in order to increase LOS and give flexability to vacation goers.

Now that APs are gone, merging them does make some sense, and would be a good compromise between deep discount and still offering something to locals. I would think though, since they would still want to maximize the revenue from vacation goers, they would need to distinguish the prices and maybe offer a special "So Cal Only Park Hopper" with a slightly bigger discount. Kind of like the extension of the TWOfer.

APs are not discounted when they are priced at a much higher price than a day pass. AP holders justify their decision when they mentally create the break even point based on the artificial day pass park price. Only Disney knows what their true costs are and their profits from an AP or all tickets in aggregate.

Disney isn't in good position to cash in on vacationers when Disneyland Resort just can't accommodate every tourist who might want to be there. There should be at least 5400 rooms within it's borders and even more in the surround properties that Disney owns. So if Disney is merely cashing in from a day or multi-park hopping pass, well it's comparable to an Annual Pass that is even more expensive as it ratchets up.

Since this experiment so far proves the market for day passes will not sell out even on opening day, I think Disney will consider offering APs much sooner than we expect.

 

[el_super]

APs are not discounted when they are priced at a much higher price than a day pass.

APs are a discount program and Disney has even stated as such. Even if the guest sets the actual value with the number of visits, the floor of how much each visit costs is significantly lower than any other ticket price.

Since this experiment so far proves the market for day passes will not sell out even on opening day, I think Disney will consider offering APs much sooner than we expect.

The whole foal was to not sell out at the price the AP was offered for. That any days at all are selling out is good news for Disney. Theres a lot of room to offer a discount for the unsold capacity that doesn't mean bringing back APs.

 

[ToTBellHop]

With the parks opening up to those from out of state sooner than expected, they’ll see how big crowds will be without APs quite soon.

 

[Tamandua]

That any days at all are selling out is good news for Disney.

I would hardly call booking 25% or less of capacity selling out in any real sense. And today they opened up reservations to Disney employees, so a lot of the capacity being booked now brings in no revenue.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Anecdotal I know, but I've been invited to the Cast Preview and I'm not at all sure I want to go. I've been vaccinated for awhile but it still feels like an unnecessary risk. Health concerns aside, I also don't want to put up with the "safety" features of COVID Disneyland. Let someone else be the guinea pig.

Which date(s) for the preview?

 

[el_super]

I would hardly call booking 25% or less of capacity selling out in any real sense. And today they opened up reservations to Disney employees, so a lot of the capacity being booked now brings in no revenue.

Yeah, but presumably they are selling out that 15% at a non-discounted rate. If they had let the APs take a crack at it, most of that capacity would be bringing in next to nothing. The employee passes that they are allowing in now, are just unused comp passes, so the employee equivalent to pre-sold tickets. The Main Entrance Passes are still not valid for entry.

 

[chadwpalm]

With the parks opening up to those from out of state sooner than expected, they’ll see how big crowds will be without APs quite soon.

Yes. I'm not convinced that because all 60 days haven't sold out that this is an indication that an AP program is needed.

If we estimate that between DL and DCA combined they can hold between 50,000-60,000 people, then you'd have to have between 8-10% of the entire California population having decided to visit the parks the first 60 days and that too me is just not reasonable, especially with Covid concerns and people wanting to wait until the parks are "fully" open. I would bet that except for die-hard people like me, a majority of Northern California people won't even consider going right now. Mathematically, there just aren't enough local SoCal people, even with multiple visits to fill up the 60-day window.

It is WAY too early to predict that getting rid of APs was a failure. Too many factors right now.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Yes. I'm not convinced that because all 60 days haven't sold out that this is an indication that an AP program is needed.

If we estimate that between DL and DCA combined they can hold between 50,000-60,000 people, then you'd have to have between 8-10% of the entire California population having decided to visit the parks the first 60 days and that too me is just not reasonable, especially with Covid concerns and people wanting to wait until the parks are "fully" open. I would bet that except for die-hard people like me, a majority of Northern California people won't even consider going right now. Mathematically, there just aren't enough local SoCal people, even with multiple visits to fill up the 60-day window.

It is WAY too early to predict that getting rid of APs was a failure. Too many factors right now.

Exactly--no way to know. I still bet they give it the summer, at least.

 

[el_super]

Which date(s) for the preview?

April 27th ... which is the first day of previews. That has to be an extra level of silliness. Who knows, maybe it will be worth it. I've heard from some of my more cynical CM friends that the social distance markers aren't spaced out in any logical way and that there are a few queues where it becomes impossible to see six feet in front of you, so you have to hope that either the party in front of you tells you they are moving, or awkwardly send a scout to check. Not sure I'm ready for that.

 

[mickEblu]

I've heard from some of my more cynical CM friends that the social distance markers aren't spaced out in any logical way and that there are a few queues where it becomes impossible to see six feet in front of you, so you have to hope that either the party in front of you tells you they are moving, or awkwardly send a scout to check.

You can hope or just realize that you are going to be Ok if they are 3 feet away from you instead of 6 especially if both parties are wearing masks.

 

[ToTBellHop]

April 27th ... which is the first day of previews. That has to be an extra level of silliness. Who knows, maybe it will be worth it. I've heard from some of my more cynical CM friends that the social distance markers aren't spaced out in any logical way and that there are a few queues where it becomes impossible to see six feet in front of you, so you have to hope that either the party in front of you tells you they are moving, or awkwardly send a scout to check. Not sure I'm ready for that.

That happens at WDW and Universal Orlando, too. It’s not a huge deal.

 

[SuddenStorm]

You can hope or just realize that you are going to be Ok if they are 3 feet away from you instead of 6 especially if both parties are wearing masks.

Not to mention if the queue is outside, and if members of both parties have already been vaccinated or had covid. Very soon I anticipate most of these covid measures to go away, if only because more people will think they're ridiculous after they've been vaccinated.

 

[Tamandua]

Not to mention if the queue is outside, and if members of both parties have already been vaccinated or had covid. Very soon I anticipate most of these covid measures to go away, if only because more people will think they're ridiculous after they've been vaccinated.

They're ridiculous anyways TBH.

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

Yeah I don’t think they ll know if or when to bring back a membership program until things have normalized a bit more.

I feel safe and wish we could be done with the masks etc. I was a guinea pig at USH this past weekend and my family and I had a great time. With that said my expectations were low and we ve been itching to go on rides again. Hopefully Disneyland will be as pleasant of an experience next month.

I won't be going near Disneyland for at least the next 10 years. It's just not safe...

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

Yes. I'm not convinced that because all 60 days haven't sold out that this is an indication that an AP program is needed.

If we estimate that between DL and DCA combined they can hold between 50,000-60,000 people, then you'd have to have between 8-10% of the entire California population having decided to visit the parks the first 60 days and that too me is just not reasonable, especially with Covid concerns and people wanting to wait until the parks are "fully" open. I would bet that except for die-hard people like me, a majority of Northern California people won't even consider going right now. Mathematically, there just aren't enough local SoCal people, even with multiple visits to fill up the 60-day window.

It is WAY too early to predict that getting rid of APs was a failure. Too many factors right now.

California Adventure is going to suffer. There is no other conclusion you can come to when looking at the reservation calendar. If Avengers Campus is not a smash success, it won't get any better when summer comes. When capacity increases for Disneyland, that will soak up the allowing of people from out of state. But will the attendance by locals start to dwindle, leaving DL below capacity frequently, especially on weekdays? When capacity increases, and even when out of state visitors come, I don't think they'll be coming for CA Adventure, and they may appear even more empty. IMO, CA Adventure relies a lot more on AP's than DL. Not everyone wants to pay extra for a Hopper, and if they're choosing 1 park, they're choosing DL.

 

[SuddenStorm]

ridiculous anyways TBH.

I agree, but there are also people who are scared of going in public after they've been vaccinated. We're not dealing with logic were dealing with emotion.

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

Sure, I've been vaccinated and sure, I don't fall into the 75+ age range that have mainly died and should be adequately protected by now and sure, there's no reason for me to be worried, but there's just so much we don't know about this virus. We need to shut everything down for at least the next 10 years.