Predictions for returns of Annual Passholders

[Darkbeer1]

And what will the California Rules be on June 15th, looks like besides a mask mandate, we return to normal.

So will the DLR drop reservations on or shortly after June 15th?

We don't know, and those have major impacts on ticket sells, and required use dates for multi-day tickets.

 

[Tamandua]

Sure, I've been vaccinated and sure, I don't fall into the 75+ age range that have mainly died and should be adequately protected by now and sure, there's no reason for me to be worried, but there's just so much we don't know about this virus. We need to shut everything down for at least the next 10 years.

I have fond memories of my last visit to Disneyland, March 13, 2020. No one was wearing a mask because Dr. Fauci insisted they wouldn't help and would only hurt you because they'd make you touch your face constantly. How many masks does he recommend now? I can't keep track. Anyways... There's just so much we don't know. Let's assume the worst.

 

[Tamandua]

And what will the California Rules be on June 15th, looks like besides a mask mandate, we return to normal.

So will the DLR drop reservations on or shortly after June 15th?

We don't know, and those have major impacts on ticket sells, and required use dates for multi-day tickets.

I have a feeling they'll drop all the restrictions before June 15th, except maybe for masks. The powers that be seem to have shifted into a "screw it" mode. I mean they had all their rules and shutdowns and such for over a year and millions of Californians still got covid and tens of thousands died. There's no real spinning this endeavor into a success at this point.

 

[Californian Elitist]

I agree, but there are also people who are scared of going in public after they've been vaccinated. We're not dealing with logic were dealing with emotion.

It’s not illogical to take precaution even after getting the vaccine, whether that includes not going out or not. The vaccine doesn’t provide immunity to the virus, it lessens the severity of cases. Even then, even if fully vaccinated, one can still not only come down with it, but also die with it. It’s already happened.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Sure, I've been vaccinated and sure, I don't fall into the 75+ age range that have mainly died and should be adequately protected by now and sure, there's no reason for me to be worried, but there's just so much we don't know about this virus. We need to shut everything down for at least the next 10 years.

Shut it down for the next 25.

 

[DLR>WDW]

It’s not illogical to take precaution even after getting the vaccine, whether that includes not going out or not. The vaccine doesn’t provide immunity to the virus, it lessens the severity of cases. Even then, even if fully vaccinated, one can still not only come down with it, but also die with it. It’s already happened.

I may be wrong, but I thought the Pfizer and Moderna shots prevented chance of contraction by 95%.

Here’s what the CDC says:

• Based on evidence from clinical trials, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 95% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 illness in people without evidence of previous infection.

Real world data also seems to suggest it’s even more effective, with less than 6,000 of the 84 million people fully vaccinated in the US testing positive.

“CDC says fewer than 6,000 Americans have contracted Covid after being fully vaccinated”

That represents just 0.007% of the 84 million Americans with full protection against the virus. Despite the breakthrough infections, she said the vaccines are working as intended.

Anecdotal I know, but I've been invited to the Cast Preview and I'm not at all sure I want to go. I've been vaccinated for awhile but it still feels like an unnecessary risk. Health concerns aside, I also don't want to put up with the "safety" features of COVID Disneyland. Let someone else be the guinea pig.

While you should only do what you feel comfortable with, being one of the first people back at Disneyland in over a year is definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity.. and it’s free!

 

[Californian Elitist]

I may be wrong, but I thought the Pfizer and Moderna shots prevented chance of contraction by 95%.

Here’s what the CDC says:


Real world data also seems to suggest it’s even more effective, with less than 6,000 of the 84 million people fully vaccinated in the US testing positive.

“CDC says fewer than 6,000 Americans have contracted Covid after being fully vaccinated”

This data supports my statement. It’s not 100% guarantee that folks won’t get the virus. They still can, even after being fully vaccinated. Things haven’t returned to normal just yet.

 

[Darkbeer1]

While you should only do what you feel comfortable with, being one of the first people back at Disneyland in over a year is definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity.. and it’s free!

Lisa and I are going April 28th, and while we are both fully vaccinated, we would have gone regardless of having the vaccine.

 

[DLR>WDW]

This data supports my statement. It’s not 100% guarantee that folks won’t get the virus. They still can, even after being fully vaccinated. Things haven’t returned to normal just yet.

Ah, gotcha. Though with real world data showing .007% chance, along with the countless measures that Disney has in place, it seems nearly impossible. Yes, not 100%... but very close!

Lisa and I are going April 28th, and while we are both fully vaccinated, we would have gone regardless of having the vaccine.

Yeah, Disney seems to be taking it very seriously. Even with the lack of restrictions in Florida, capacity is still capped and all restrictions are heavily enforced. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t believe any cases have been linked back to WDW either. The parks are very safe, and hopefully can be returning to normal in the very near future.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Yeah, Disney seems to be taking it very seriously. Even with the lack of restrictions in Florida, capacity is still capped and all restrictions are heavily enforced. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t believe any cases have been linked back to WDW either. The parks are very safe, and hopefully can be returning to normal in the very near future.

No transmission has be found to be caused by Theme/Amusement Parks in the USA. So yes, the Parks are very safe.

 

[fctiger]

California Adventure is going to suffer. There is no other conclusion you can come to when looking at the reservation calendar. If Avengers Campus is not a smash success, it won't get any better when summer comes. When capacity increases for Disneyland, that will soak up the allowing of people from out of state. But will the attendance by locals start to dwindle, leaving DL below capacity frequently, especially on weekdays? When capacity increases, and even when out of state visitors come, I don't think they'll be coming for CA Adventure, and they may appear even more empty. IMO, CA Adventure relies a lot more on AP's than DL. Not everyone wants to pay extra for a Hopper, and if they're choosing 1 park, they're choosing DL.

I been saying this for literally years now and a HUGE reason why the AP program is so important to DLR is because of DCA. And as the calendar has pointed out, that park just doesn't have the same pull when you can't even fill up opening day with a 25% capacity cap.

Every time the AP argument is brought up it's geared 99% of the time to DL which is overlooking the big picture and that these parks are seen as one entity and they both have to have the same level of attendance even if the capacity is lower at DCA for being smaller. DCA has to be sustainable just like DL, but it's still clearly far from that. Or at least when compared to DL.

And yes, when the high seasons are over and it's mostly locals again, that park will suffer quite a bit. I can't imagine what it would look like come September. I don't think it will be as dead like it was it's first few years of opening and the park is more popular today. But I still doubt it will get half the attendance it's getting now without APs, not counting high seasons.

Now they can certainly just do things like lower the price, have more seasonal discounts, etc, but Disney doesn't seem to operate that way just looking at all the other resorts. They are all given the exact same ticketing prices, packages and/or discounts and why they are seen as one entity even if the second gate parks are nowhere near as popular as the MK parks.

But this is a big reason why APs are never truly going away. Until enough people are willing to at least pay for a full day pass as they do DL, then I don't see it happening. And I bet less than a third of the people who posts here would ever pay full price for it now and herein lies the problem.

 

[DanielBB8]

APs are a discount program and Disney has even stated as such. Even if the guest sets the actual value with the number of visits, the floor of how much each visit costs is significantly lower than any other ticket price.



The whole foal was to not sell out at the price the AP was offered for. That any days at all are selling out is good news for Disney. Theres a lot of room to offer a discount for the unsold capacity that doesn't mean bringing back APs.

Under what basis will a discount be offered after the fact for unsold capacity? This has not been done before especially when opening day is just weeks away. Disney is clearly leaving money on the table.

APs are not a discount when the guests are paying hundreds for repeat visits. APs are designed to let people visit again when Disney already has their money. This is hard to see, but that’s the goal.

 

[DanielBB8]

Yeah, but presumably they are selling out that 15% at a non-discounted rate. If they had let the APs take a crack at it, most of that capacity would be bringing in next to nothing. The employee passes that they are allowing in now, are just unused comp passes, so the employee equivalent to pre-sold tickets. The Main Entrance Passes are still not valid for entry.

Or Disney would not have refunded that AP money, thus giving it back as opposed to the CM that hasn’t worked a day since the pandemic and also a cost to the company without offset from revenue from the APs. It’s all circling back.

 

[el_super]

You can hope or just realize that you are going to be Ok if they are 3 feet away from you instead of 6 especially if both parties are wearing masks.

Would I be relatively safe? Sure. Do I want to navigate the social consequences of such an action? Do I want to assume that all the other parties around me are just as comfortable with my proximity as I am? Risk a really bad interaction with another guest or potentially a CM ejecting me from a lime for not following the rules?

All in order to ride Pirates of the Caribbean for the 145th time?

I might go, but it's not really a slam dunk decision for me.

 

[el_super]

IMO, CA Adventure relies a lot more on AP's than DL. Not everyone wants to pay extra for a Hopper, and if they're choosing 1 park, they're choosing DL.

Yeah that's definitely a problem that needs to be fixed. But continually giving away Disneyland for free to keep DCA filled is still a mistake.

It's also a pretty good sign Disney is never going to build a third gate in Anaheim.

 

[el_super]

Not to mention if the queue is outside, and if members of both parties have already been vaccinated or had covid. Very soon I anticipate most of these covid measures to go away, if only because more people will think they're ridiculous after they've been vaccinated.

They're ridiculous anyways TBH.

No transmission has be found to be caused by Theme/Amusement Parks in the USA. So yes, the Parks are very safe.

Do we really need to go through with all this again? I think the rules are very necessary and important. They show that Disney is serious about helping control the spread of the virus and be a positive influence in the community. The problem is that they require a certain level of respect and faithfulness to those that accept them in order to go to the park, and just from judging reactions on this board, I do not believe that people can be honest and accept those rules in good faith.

The real question is, will there be enough bad actors to ruin any potential gains from going? Are Disney CMs going to be able to shut down any rule breaking, mask removing, non-socially distancing interactions? Am I going to constantly wonder if I should say something to the maskless party in front of me or just let the CM know, or just let it go?

While you should only do what you feel comfortable with, being one of the first people back at Disneyland in over a year is definitely a once in a lifetime opportunity.. and it’s free!

Well there is always that too. My whole family works around and for the park, so it’s never been all that hard to go when I wanted to, and there’s always a chance this might be the last time for awhile. I haven’t outright said no yet… lets see how I feel in a week.

 

[el_super]

Under what basis will a discount be offered after the fact for unsold capacity? This has not been done before especially when opening day is just weeks away. Disney is clearly leaving money on the table.

Not really ... the other half of the AP equation is reducing costs and capacity to save money. They don't need to sell unutilized capacity if they can cut that unused capacity by reducing labor and expenses. Closing the park before sunset, keeping restaurants shuttered and reducing entertainment offerings goes a long way to reducing costs.

APs are not a discount when the guests are paying hundreds for repeat visits. APs are designed to let people visit again when Disney already has their money. This is hard to see, but that’s the goal.

So if the discount isn't important, are you thinking that people would rather just prepay for 10 admissions at the same price as the one day tickets? Its merely convenient?

 

[DanielBB8]

Not really ... the other half of the AP equation is reducing costs and capacity to save money. They don't need to sell unutilized capacity if they can cut that unused capacity by reducing labor and expenses. Closing the park before sunset, keeping restaurants shuttered and reducing entertainment offerings goes a long way to reducing costs.



So if the discount isn't important, are you thinking that people would rather just prepay for 10 admissions at the same price as the one day tickets? Its merely convenient?

Expenses is a fraction of the revenue that they can enjoy if they sold those spots, but many expenses are fixed costs that can't be cut. So any lost sales is lost forever. They can't ever get that day back. Disney is also a public company and all revenue and income is reported. Lower revenue and income is a big deal.

The discount is artificial. Seems like you're hung up on it. Disney makes a ton off of APs because they are priced much higher than day passes and multi-day park hoppers. The lack of APs will be felt as Disney can't possibly fill up their spaces with very expensive day passes. Okay, if you want a full park, discount the day pass. That's where the discount should be at.

 

[DanielBB8]

If you go to Klook, a day pass at Hong Kong Disneyland is $75, and at Shanghai Disneyland is $58.35.

At Tokyo Disney, it's 8700 yen or about $80.

They seem to be more attuned to actual market prices in those countries. Disney just keeps ratcheting prices up artificially to be much more than the market should support.

 

[Tamandua]

If you go to Klook, a day pass at Hong Kong Disneyland is $75, and at Shanghai Disneyland is $58.35.

At Tokyo Disney, it's 8700 yen or about $80.

They seem to be more attuned to actual market prices in those countries. Disney just keeps ratcheting prices up artificially to be much more than the market should support.

Right now Disney thinks everyone should pay the "pent up demand" premium. It seems like most people aren't going for it. Then again, some people live in crippling fear of going outside like El superino, but most people are just going to wait until the price makes sense. If people are anything like me, they got in the queue, saw the price of going for one day with their family, and said NOPE.