Predictions for returns of Annual Passholders

[fctiger]

That doesn't really make sense. If they were worried about hitting capacity, why not stop selling all APs? Why only one?

OK I got confused. I thought they stopped selling all of them.

But one pass use to always get paused all the time and in fact I mentioned in this thread. It's probably the same one, I just can't remember the name. But I remember it because it's the one my mother always bought and didn't renew it one year but then couldn't get again when she wanted to get it again the next year. They would pause it for a few months or even a year but then bring it back. My ONLY guess is it was maybe too popular and so they would put a cap of how many had it only to resell it again when others stopped renewing it and then sold more.

But it proves the point if Disney wanted to limit the APs they had the power literally at any time. They simply didn't want to do that and now don't have much of a choice so had to eliminate them altogether for now.

 

[DanielBB8]

Yeah but if the park hits capacity and has to close the gates, that impacts all APs (and all tickets sold really), not just one. So why place a limit on that specific pass? Why not keep selling them, and let the gate controls handle capacity issues?

Besides speculation that you’re evidently doing, they likely have too many California APs that is the main chokehold. They aren’t going to use the gate to STOP an AP on a non blockout date. That’s not how it works. A capacity date gate closure falls on the day tripper, which is like turning away the higher paying guests on a crowded day. So the best alternative is to stop allowing California APs to expand (pause their sale) and instead offer Flex Passes where they can control attendance before they arrive to the parks.

 

[Tamandua]

Just get rid of the payment plans. Reduce the number of APs and retain the ones more likely to spend more.

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

I said it from the beginning, Disney took a huge gamble when they abandoned the AP program. They essentially made all the passholders, Free Agents. At some point, they're going to come back with a "contract offer" in the form of some new membership situation, and it may look nothing like what passholders had before. Not everyone is going to like it, and not everybody will come back. For example, I really liked the features and price of the Flex Pass. If I don't get both the aspects I liked, at a price I find reasonable, I won't be back. Maybe eventually, but I'll be in no rush.

Then there's the other parks. Sure, they may not be the Yankees or the Dodgers, but they each have their own qualities that make them enjoyable. Many former Disney AP's have decided to purchase passes to other parks. Like me. So that takes away both my money, and my time. I've made the decision that I'm going to get enjoyment at Universal Studios & Knott's over the next year, so that leaves less time for Disney. Not going to dump the other parks, just so I can go to DL every weekend like I used to. So at this point, even if DL came out with an AP next month, there is zero chance I'm gonna buy in right away. I'm going to let my time run on the other passes, so that I don't have 3 passes all expiring around the same time in 2022. Maybe around October, after I've got more of a fill from the other parks.

I will miss DL for sure, but they cut me, and made me an Unrestricted Free Agent. So I'm gonna sample some more of what's out there for now, and after my journey, I'll see what Disney is up to.

 

[AmishGuy91]

I said it from the beginning, Disney took a huge gamble when they abandoned the AP program. They essentially made all the passholders, Free Agents. At some point, they're going to come back with a "contract offer" in the form of some new membership situation, and it may look nothing like what passholders had before. Not everyone is going to like it, and not everybody will come back. For example, I really liked the features and price of the Flex Pass. If I don't get both the aspects I liked, at a price I find reasonable, I won't be back. Maybe eventually, but I'll be in no rush.

Then there's the other parks. Sure, they may not be the Yankees or the Dodgers, but they each have their own qualities that make them enjoyable. Many former Disney AP's have decided to purchase passes to other parks. Like me. So that takes away both my money, and my time. I've made the decision that I'm going to get enjoyment at Universal Studios & Knott's over the next year, so that leaves less time for Disney. Not going to dump the other parks, just so I can go to DL every weekend like I used to. So at this point, even if DL came out with an AP next month, there is zero chance I'm gonna buy in right away. I'm going to let my time run on the other passes, so that I don't have 3 passes all expiring around the same time in 2022. Maybe around October, after I've got more of a fill from the other parks.

I will miss DL for sure, but they cut me, and made me an Unrestricted Free Agent. So I'm gonna sample some more of what's out there for now, and after my journey, I'll see what Disney is up to.

I agree with you but that’s exactly how Disney intended it. They will come back with a new program that attracts less people to it but costs more.

 

[CaptinEO]

I said it from the beginning, Disney took a huge gamble when they abandoned the AP program. They essentially made all the passholders, Free Agents. At some point, they're going to come back with a "contract offer" in the form of some new membership situation, and it may look nothing like what passholders had before. Not everyone is going to like it, and not everybody will come back. For example, I really liked the features and price of the Flex Pass. If I don't get both the aspects I liked, at a price I find reasonable, I won't be back. Maybe eventually, but I'll be in no rush.

Then there's the other parks. Sure, they may not be the Yankees or the Dodgers, but they each have their own qualities that make them enjoyable. Many former Disney AP's have decided to purchase passes to other parks. Like me. So that takes away both my money, and my time. I've made the decision that I'm going to get enjoyment at Universal Studios & Knott's over the next year, so that leaves less time for Disney. Not going to dump the other parks, just so I can go to DL every weekend like I used to. So at this point, even if DL came out with an AP next month, there is zero chance I'm gonna buy in right away. I'm going to let my time run on the other passes, so that I don't have 3 passes all expiring around the same time in 2022. Maybe around October, after I've got more of a fill from the other parks.

I will miss DL for sure, but they cut me, and made me an Unrestricted Free Agent. So I'm gonna sample some more of what's out there for now, and after my journey, I'll see what Disney is up to.

This is what they wanted to do. The parks were miserable any day Deluxe or below was allowed. I would only show up on days they were blocked out.

When SoCal APs came back for a little bit Sundays became unberable. This is in my experience of going since 2015. Saturdays when Deluxe was blocked out were always glorious.

They don't want people in a contract that feel obligated to show up and make the resort less desirable for customers that would be willing to pay more.

If you love the park, great, why do you need a contract or obligation to go? Just buy a ticket when you want, or even multiday.

 

[SoCalDisneyLover]

This is what they wanted to do. The parks were miserable any day Deluxe or below was allowed. I would only show up on days they were blocked out.

When SoCal APs came back for a little bit Sundays became unberable. This is in my experience of going since 2015. Saturdays when Deluxe was blocked out were always glorious.

They don't want people in a contract that feel obligated to show up and make the resort less desirable for customers that would be willing to pay more.

If you love the park, great, why do you need a contract or obligation to go? Just buy a ticket when you want, or even multiday.

I suppose something like the Flex Pass would be perfect. It would really enable them to control day to day availability. I remember a theory, pre-March 2020, suggesting different levels, allowing you to hold varying # of reservations at one time.

 

[CaptinEO]

I suppose something like the Flex Pass would be perfect. It would really enable them to control day to day availability. I remember a theory, pre-March 2020, suggesting different levels, allowing you to hold varying # of reservations at one time.

Well from the survey people were sent it appears that everything currently is going to be like a flex pass. This makes sense because of covid rules with capacity.

I'm curious when covid ends if they will maintain reservations. If they do so then at the very least, like you mentioned, they can always control crowds.

 

[fctiger]

It looks like for the people who predicted for the passes to come back in the fall or winter are most likely the winners!

It didn't take long for Disney to reassure people APs were coming back and coming back relatively soon! I thought it would be in 2022, but looking at the availability reservations and you can still basically go to both parks up to 80% (if you buy a day hopper pass) through June 28th probably prompted them to make the announcement sooner.

I think a lot of people in the company are shocked these passes are not selling out faster for 25% capacity after a full year of closure and basically the start of summer. And they probably worry come fall these parks are going to feel like ghost towns even with smaller capacity. At least until the holidays.

 

[truecoat]

It looks like for the people who predicted for the passes to come back in the fall or winter are most likely the winners!

It didn't take long for Disney to reassure people APs were coming back and coming back relatively soon! I thought it would be in 2022, but looking at the availability reservations and you can still basically go to both parks up to 80% (if you buy a day hopper pass) through June 28th probably prompted them to make the announcement sooner.

I think a lot of people in the company are shocked these passes are not selling out faster for 25% capacity after a full year of closure and basically the start of summer. And they probably worry come fall these parks are going to feel like ghost towns even with smaller capacity. At least until the holidays.

You have the people who don't want to wear masks and the people who want to wait until parades, fireworks, Fantasmic and WOC are back.

 

[Jiggsawpuzzle35]

It looks like for the people who predicted for the passes to come back in the fall or winter are most likely the winners!

It didn't take long for Disney to reassure people APs were coming back and coming back relatively soon! I thought it would be in 2022, but looking at the availability reservations and you can still basically go to both parks up to 80% (if you buy a day hopper pass) through June 28th probably prompted them to make the announcement sooner.

I think a lot of people in the company are shocked these passes are not selling out faster for 25% capacity after a full year of closure and basically the start of summer. And they probably worry come fall these parks are going to feel like ghost towns even with smaller capacity. At least until the holidays.

Gotta remember a lot of Visitors also come from Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and the west side of Canada. These people can’t get in yet per California’s weird policy.

 

[PiratesMansion]

Gotta remember a lot of Visitors also come from Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and the west side of Canada. These people can’t get in yet per California’s weird policy.

That, and the messaging from both Disney and the state have been quite poor. And I'm still not convinced that everyone who CAN go is ready to burn the masks and pretend covid is over either, despite the assertions of a vocal minority.

 

[fctiger]

Gotta remember a lot of Visitors also come from Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and the west side of Canada. These people can’t get in yet per California’s weird policy.

I know but I still think Disney thought they would fill up the dates much faster given it's only 25% attendance and you're talking about an area of 10+ million people within an hour's drive alone, not to mention the 40 million in California total.

Now that said, I don't think its a HUGE deal or anything, they will probably just adjust or as you pointed out just wait until more tourists can show up in mid-summer most likely.

 

[cmwade77]

Well, I must now officially predict a new Annual Pass type program by the end of the year....lol