News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[Disstevefan1]

Don't post much anymore, but this made me think, also made me a bit annoyed.

So attendance predictions look "soft" ok....

What does TDO do? Cut back labor, tighten up budgets, make an empty park feel fuller. Great! And, now, if their predictions are off, then this "optimized staffing" will make for a nightmare-ish park experience.

Wouldn't the better move be to fully staff and operate the parks. If attendance is soft, great, all the guests get a wonderful experience, making them more likely to return. Doesn't that seem like the better long term strategery?

Also, maybe it would help to give folks a reason to visit outside of whatever current festival Epcot is running and sundry after hour "parties" that effectively double the cost of your day at MK? I dunno...

Call me crazy.

You are a dreamer, in a good way I mean. Walt would have agreed with you I think..

 

[Tom Morrow]

Something to consider is the darn hard ticket MK parties, they really throw off the distribution of crowd levels. On nights when Magic Kingdom closes at 6 for a hard ticket party event, it is almost always a light crowd day because nobody wants to bother going to the park on a day when it closes early when they could choose another day where it is open late. This increases the crowds at the other three parks on those days. However, when Magic Kingdom does not have an evening hard ticket party, it is significantly more crowded while the other three parks are now less crowded.

 

[MaximumEd]

Something to consider is the darn hard ticket MK parties, they really throw off the distribution of crowd levels. On nights when Magic Kingdom closes at 6 for a hard ticket party event, it is almost always a light crowd day because nobody wants to bother going to the park on a day when it closes early when they could choose another day where it is open late. This increases the crowds at the other three parks on those days. However, when Magic Kingdom does not have an evening hard ticket party, it is significantly more crowded while the other three parks are now less crowded.

We noticed this a couple weeks ago. The one good thing about being in the park for a party is you get to see how fast the lines move with no one using fast passes. It made me amazed at the true capacity of rides like POTC, Splash, BTMRR, and HM. On the other hand, it makes me hate fast pass even worse.

 

[mikejs78]

We noticed this a couple weeks ago. The one good thing about being in the park for a party is you get to see how fast the lines move with no one using fast passes. It made me amazed at the true capacity of rides like POTC, Splash, BTMRR, and HM. On the other hand, it makes me hate fast pass even worse.

It has nothing whatsoever to do with Fastpass. It has to do with the fact that there are a lot fewer people in the park.

 

[Lucky]

It has nothing whatsoever to do with Fastpass. It has to do with the fact that there are a lot fewer people in the park.

A line of people moves faster when there are fewer people in the park?

 

[mikejs78]

A line of people moves faster when there are fewer people in the park?

The line moves the same whether there is FP or not. The capacity of the ride doesn't change magically with FP. The people who are in the FP linr are just not in the standby line.

 

[Lucky]

The line moves the same whether there is FP or not. The capacity of the ride doesn't change magically with FP. The people who are in the FP linr are just not in the standby line.

The standby line moves a lot faster without FP. That’s the main point @MaximumEd was making.

 

[MaximumEd]

A line halfway into the switchbacks on POTC doesn’t move faster or slower regardless of whether the park has 10k people in it or 90k. It does, however, move a whole lot faster for everyone in standby when both sides are loading the standby line and folks with a FP aren’t being allocated 80% of the ride capacity. That’s what I was trying to say.

 

[MaximumEd]

I also meant that you hardly ever see how fast one of those rides can eat through a standby line because of fast pass allocation.

 

[mikejs78]

The standby line moves a lot faster without FP. That’s the main point @MaximumEd was making.

A line halfway into the switchbacks on POTC doesn’t move faster or slower regardless of whether the park has 10k people in it or 90k. It does, however, move a whole lot faster for everyone in standby when both sides are loading the standby line and folks with a FP aren’t being allocated 80% of the ride capacity. That’s what I was trying to say.

I also meant that you hardly ever see how fast one of those rides can eat through a standby line because of fast pass allocation.

Sure, ok. I can see that. My point is though that even though it moves faster, wait time is about the same (I.e if there were no people with Fastpass, the number of people in the standby line would increase).

 

[Tom Morrow]

A line halfway into the switchbacks on POTC doesn’t move faster or slower regardless of whether the park has 10k people in it or 90k. It does, however, move a whole lot faster for everyone in standby when both sides are loading the standby line and folks with a FP aren’t being allocated 80% of the ride capacity. That’s what I was trying to say.

This. Those who say Fastpass does not affect the standby wait time do not understand just how much more of the attraction's capacity is devoted to Fastpass. At popular attractions at WDW, it is 80% Fastpass, most of the time. It is not as simple as saying "those people would just be in the regular line" either, because if there were only one line, and they arrived after you, they would ride after you. Fastpass enables more people to ride before you than what would be physically possible with only one line.

 

[Marc Davis Fan]

This. Those who say Fastpass does not affect the standby wait time do not understand just how much more of the attraction's capacity is devoted to Fastpass. At popular attractions at WDW, it is 80% Fastpass, most of the time. It is not as simple as saying "those people would just be in the regular line" either, because if there were only one line, and they arrived after you, they would ride after you. Fastpass enables more people to ride before you than what would be physically possible with only one line.

A great way to see this in action is when an attraction has soft-reopened from a refurb, and thus is not utilizing Fastpass. It's amazing how quickly the line moves...

 

[mikejs78]

A great way to see this in action is when an attraction has soft-reopened from a refurb, and thus is not utilizing Fastpass. It's amazing how quickly the line moves...

Data trumps anecdotal evidence, and the best day we have is to compare standby times on similar days the year before FP+ and the year after (thanks to TouringPlans historical crowd calendar). And what it shows is no appreciable wait in standby times. Some attractions had slightly longer average standby times after FP+, others had decently shorter times (specifically the e tickets like Splash, Space, and BTM. ). But aggregated over all attractions, standby time was pretty constant at MK. (The other parks are a different story due to tiering, which intrduces a whole other variable that really messed things up...). The other thing FP+ does is distribute crowds throughout the day, softening the peaks. So standby time at 2 PM at most attractions is actually less than it was before FP, but it is longer at say, 7 PM than it was before FP+. So it softens the peaks. So no, FP+ by itself doesn't increase standby times appreciably, and the data exists to prove it.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Data trumps anecdotal evidence, and the best day we have is to compare standby times on similar days the year before FP+ and the year after (thanks to TouringPlans historical crowd calendar). And what it shows is no appreciable wait in standby times. Some attractions had slightly longer average standby times after FP+, others had decently shorter times (specifically the e tickets like Splash, Space, and BTM. ). But aggregated over all attractions, standby time was pretty constant at MK. (The other parks are a different story due to tiering, which intrduces a whole other variable that really messed things up...). The other thing FP+ does is distribute crowds throughout the day, softening the peaks. So standby time at 2 PM at most attractions is actually less than it was before FP, but it is longer at say, 7 PM than it was before FP+. So it softens the peaks. So no, FP+ by itself doesn't increase standby times appreciably, and the data exists to prove it.

Since there was no such thing as a standby line before FP or FP+ it was just a regular line, but, it is FassPass in general that is being debated. With anecdotal evidence you have people actually standing in those lines and actually experiencing. Data consist of a series of numbers that can be completely altered to reflect what one wants it to reflect.

Give me a choice between actual witness and a data point and I will tell you which one has the better chance of being accurate. Except for the system, FP and FP+ have the same affect. It is just a different system of distribution. I have stood in standby with both FP systems and I spent many years in just the line for each attraction and I will challenge anyone that tries to make people believe that it is the same. If they didn't really have a system in place to record the wait times before FastPass then all you are comparing is the same thing. I was there, I stood in those lines and any number of data numbers you care to throw my way are either authenticated by actual experience or declared useless by the same actual experience . And that data does not hold water.

At the same time it is also taking averaged numbers and saying that there is no difference in wait times because of it, then why is it there. With no FP we created our own distribution of crowds. If the line was to long we went on by and came back to it later. We don't have to be puppets when it comes to our own convenience. We were self managing and able to tell what would be to our benefit. Now one had to distribute us. I hate FP, no matter whether it is FP1 or FP2. It created anger and frustration the just didn't exist before they came into existence. If one could measure the difference in the feel, the attitude and the pure enjoyment it would be off the charts in favor of no FP. It is no longer going to be able to happen because it is the 900 pound Gorilla in the room and it isn't able to budge.

 

[larryz]

Data trumps anecdotal evidence, and the best day we have is to compare standby times on similar days the year before FP+ and the year after (thanks to TouringPlans historical crowd calendar). And what it shows is no appreciable wait in standby times. Some attractions had slightly longer average standby times after FP+, others had decently shorter times (specifically the e tickets like Splash, Space, and BTM. ). But aggregated over all attractions, standby time was pretty constant at MK. (The other parks are a different story due to tiering, which intrduces a whole other variable that really messed things up...). The other thing FP+ does is distribute crowds throughout the day, softening the peaks. So standby time at 2 PM at most attractions is actually less than it was before FP, but it is longer at say, 7 PM than it was before FP+. So it softens the peaks. So no, FP+ by itself doesn't increase standby times appreciably, and the data exists to prove it.

"Aggregated over all attractions" means you're throwing in attractions like Philharmagic and the Dumbos with The Dwarfs and Jungle Cruise.

That's about as meaningful as telling someone who's stuck in a traffic jam that their average speed is 25 mph when they haven't moved two miles in the last 20 minutes. (Hello, Atlanta, I'm talking to you here...)

 

[ParentsOf4]

Data trumps anecdotal evidence, and the best day we have is to compare standby times on similar days the year before FP+ and the year after (thanks to TouringPlans historical crowd calendar). And what it shows is no appreciable wait in standby times. Some attractions had slightly longer average standby times after FP+, others had decently shorter times (specifically the e tickets like Splash, Space, and BTM. ). But aggregated over all attractions, standby time was pretty constant at MK. (The other parks are a different story due to tiering, which intrduces a whole other variable that really messed things up...). The other thing FP+ does is distribute crowds throughout the day, softening the peaks. So standby time at 2 PM at most attractions is actually less than it was before FP, but it is longer at say, 7 PM than it was before FP+. So it softens the peaks. So no, FP+ by itself doesn't increase standby times appreciably, and the data exists to prove it.

The original Fastpass system dates back to 1999, which is when 2 separate queues were created.

Thus, looking at data from the year before and the year after FP+ is not to show a significant difference.

Disney changes the ratio between Standby and FP/FP+ line from time-to-time, and this does affect Standby wait times.

What FP+ changes is who is in the Standby line. With Fastpass, those who showed up for park opening got the best Fastpass selections. With FP+, those who stay onsite get the best FP+ selections.

 

[Marc Davis Fan]

Data trumps anecdotal evidence, and the best day we have is to compare standby times on similar days the year before FP+ and the year after (thanks to TouringPlans historical crowd calendar). And what it shows is no appreciable wait in standby times. Some attractions had slightly longer average standby times after FP+, others had decently shorter times (specifically the e tickets like Splash, Space, and BTM. ). But aggregated over all attractions, standby time was pretty constant at MK. (The other parks are a different story due to tiering, which intrduces a whole other variable that really messed things up...). The other thing FP+ does is distribute crowds throughout the day, softening the peaks. So standby time at 2 PM at most attractions is actually less than it was before FP, but it is longer at say, 7 PM than it was before FP+. So it softens the peaks. So no, FP+ by itself doesn't increase standby times appreciably, and the data exists to prove it.

I was referring to the original introduction of Fastpass, not the change from legacy FP to FP+. Do we have data anywhere on wait times before and after late-1999 (adjusted for park attendance and the like)?

That would be good to know. I would love to hear that FP didn't increase wait times, as that would cause me to dislike FP less...

 

[mikejs78]

Since there was no such thing as a standby line before FP or FP+ it was just a regular line, but, it is FassPass in general that is being debated. With anecdotal evidence you have people actually standing in those lines and actually experiencing. Data consist of a series of numbers that can be completely altered to reflect what one wants it to reflect.

Give me a choice between actual witness and a data point and I will tell you which one has the better chance of being accurate. Except for the system, FP and FP+ have the same affect. It is just a different system of distribution. I have stood in standby with both FP systems and I spent many years in just the line for each attraction and I will challenge anyone that tries to make people believe that it is the same. If they didn't really have a system in place to record the wait times before FastPass then all you are comparing is the same thing. I was there, I stood in those lines and any number of data numbers you care to throw my way are either authenticated by actual experience or declared useless by the same actual experience . And that data does not hold water.

At the same time it is also taking averaged numbers and saying that there is no difference in wait times because of it, then why is it there. With no FP we created our own distribution of crowds. If the line was to long we went on by and came back to it later. We don't have to be puppets when it comes to our own convenience. We were self managing and able to tell what would be to our benefit. Now one had to distribute us. I hate FP, not matter whether it is FP1 or FP2. It created anger and frustration the just didn't exist before they came into existence. If one could measure the difference in the feel, the attitude and the pure enjoyment it would be off the charts in favor of no FP. It is no longer going to be able to happen because it is the 900 pound Gorilla in the room and it isn't able to budge.

Now that is just silly. The problem with anedcotal evidence is that it memory can be unreliable, and it's subjective. For example, you contend that lines were shorter without FP. I contend that I waited in longer lines pre-FP, and I happen to like FP - I see more attractions with less waiting overall. But since both are subjective, neither is more or less valid. Data allows us to measure something objective.

"Aggregated over all attractions" means you're throwing in attractions like Philharmagic and the Dumbos with The Dwarfs and Jungle Cruise.

That's about as meaningful as telling someone who's stuck in a traffic jam that their average speed is 25 mph when they haven't moved two miles in the last 20 minutes. (Hello, Atlanta, I'm talking to you here...)

Eh, not really. Thing is, attractions like SM, BTM, and Splash showed substantial declines in wait times with the introduction of FP+. Other attractions stayed the same, or they slightly increased (see below).

I was referring to the original introduction of Fastpass, not the change from legacy FP to FP+. Do we have data anywhere on wait times before and after late-1999 (adjusted for park attendance and the like)?

That would be good to know. I would love to hear that FP didn't increase wait times, as that would cause me to dislike FP less...

Unfortunately we don't have data from that time period that I know of. But I can compare attractions that didn't have FP pre-FP+, like PotC. If I remember right, With that attraction, the difference between the year before and the year following the introduction of FP+ to that attraction showed a wait time that was essentially flat to a 1-2 minute increase. I'll try to post a chart over the next day or two..

The big reasons for increased lines, IMO are:
* crowds have increased substantially without adding additional capacity (which leads to a 'tipping point' that @MisterPenguin has described well in the past)
* Reduction in staff that began in 2016
* More inefficient operations (e.g. not using the preshow rooms properly by front-end castmembers...

But to say it's FP isn't really supported by the data. Again, this only applies to MK, because tiering in the other parks really messes things up....

 

[Goofyernmost]

Now that is just silly. The problem with anedcotal evidence is that it memory can be unreliable, and it's subjective. For example, you contend that lines were shorter without FP. I contend that I waited in longer lines pre-FP, and I happen to like FP - I see more attractions with less waiting overall. But since both are subjective, neither is more or less valid. Data allows us to measure something objective.



Eh, not really. Thing is, attractions like SM, BTM, and Splash showed substantial declines in wait times with the introduction of FP+. Other attractions stayed the same, or they slightly increased (see below).



Unfortunately we don't have data from that time period that I know of. But I can compare attractions that didn't have FP pre-FP+, like PotC. If I remember right, With that attraction, the difference between the year before and the year following the introduction of FP+ to that attraction showed a wait time that was essentially flat to a 1-2 minute increase. I'll try to post a chart over the next day or two..

The big reasons for increased lines, IMO are:
* crowds have increased substantially without adding additional capacity (which leads to a 'tipping point' that @MisterPenguin has described well in the past)
* Reduction in staff that began in 2016
* More inefficient operations (e.g. not using the preshow rooms properly by front-end castmembers...

But to say it's FP isn't really supported by the data. Again, this only applies to MK, because tiering in the other parks really messes things up....

You, of course, are free to believe what you want but, my memory is quite good and, remember, I actually was there when FP was introduced and I will guarantee you that it made a difference. There were quite a few less attractions that had FP available back then, so it didn't affect those lines without FP very much, but, it sure as hell did for the ones with it. FP+ added FP queues to places that not only didn't have them before, but, didn't need them. The problem with the Data is that it is taking a look at total people, however, to really understand the truth, it must be looked at as individuals and how it affects those individuals in that standby line. If the ride can take 1400 people per hour, it will never take more then 1400, the difference is where you are in line. It is possible with FP now to be the 1000th person to enter the line and you will not be part of the 1400 that actually get on the ride during that hour. Without FP and you entered the regular line as the 1000th there will still be 400 behind you when you get on the ride. But, even the 1400th in line will be on the ride in that hour.

To quote Mark Twain... "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

 

[The real rescueranger]

All I know is that if Fast Pass is eliminated, I will sell my DVC and quit going. And, I can assure you that there are many others who would do the same. We don't do lines with longer than 20-30 minute waits and there are no longer slow times. The same goes if they make everyone start paying for FP.