LSLS
Well-Known Member
So are you comparing 2013 to 2014 then (think I read Fast Pass + was 2014)?
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News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
So are you comparing 2013 to 2014 then (think I read Fast Pass + was 2014)?
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
The good ole days of simply booking a hotel a few weeks before the trips. Where the only planning you needed to do was to pick what park you wanted to do that day. Ahh ...
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
We do that regularly.
Marc Davis Fan
Well-Known Member
I have to admit, I am confused by the possibility of standby queue times being the same before and after the 1999 introduction of FP (adjusting for attendance, etc).
Here is what confuses me:
Say I visited The Magic Kingdom in the summer of 1999, before Fastpass. I rode Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Pirates of the Caribbean, The Haunted Mansion, Peter Pan's Flight, and It's A Small World.
Then let's say I visited again TWICE in the summer of 2000, when Fastpass existed, and I went on days that had similar crowd-levels and demographics as my visit the previous summer.
On the first of those days, I went on all of the same rides as 1999, and I did not use Fastpass. If Fastpass does not affect queue times, I should have spent the exact same amount of time in line.
On the second of those days, I went on all of the same rides again, but I used Fastpass for the three mountains. If Fastpass does not affect queue times, I should now be spending less time in line than on either of the prior two visits.
Now, multiply this by every visitor. It would mean that with Fastpass, everyone waits less on average, even though the ride capacities are exactly the same as before.
Now that I think of it, this could make sense. It just means that part of the "wait" has been converted to "virtual," and thus everyone really can spend less time in queues and more time in the park with the existence Fastpass. Is that correct?
And if that's true, the other consideration would be that Fastpass makes the parks' walkways more crowded, which is obviously a particular problem for Disneyland.
I wish there were "No Fastpass Days", just for the experience.
Here is what confuses me:
Say I visited The Magic Kingdom in the summer of 1999, before Fastpass. I rode Splash Mountain, Space Mountain, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Pirates of the Caribbean, The Haunted Mansion, Peter Pan's Flight, and It's A Small World.
Then let's say I visited again TWICE in the summer of 2000, when Fastpass existed, and I went on days that had similar crowd-levels and demographics as my visit the previous summer.
On the first of those days, I went on all of the same rides as 1999, and I did not use Fastpass. If Fastpass does not affect queue times, I should have spent the exact same amount of time in line.
On the second of those days, I went on all of the same rides again, but I used Fastpass for the three mountains. If Fastpass does not affect queue times, I should now be spending less time in line than on either of the prior two visits.
Now, multiply this by every visitor. It would mean that with Fastpass, everyone waits less on average, even though the ride capacities are exactly the same as before.
Now that I think of it, this could make sense. It just means that part of the "wait" has been converted to "virtual," and thus everyone really can spend less time in queues and more time in the park with the existence Fastpass. Is that correct?
And if that's true, the other consideration would be that Fastpass makes the parks' walkways more crowded, which is obviously a particular problem for Disneyland.
I wish there were "No Fastpass Days", just for the experience.
Tom Morrow
Well-Known Member
If you've ever been stuck at a standstill in a standby queue and are able to observe and endless flow of Fastpasses pouring in during a crowd surge - pay attention. See how fast the Fastpass line is moving? If there were only ONE line, it would be moving even faster than that. And again, you can not just brush it off that "those people would just be in the standby line, making it longer", because they are arriving after you, would ride after you, and the faster, continuously moving queue would balance out the fact that more people are in it.
Disney would want you to think that. TouringPlans benefits Disney greatly because its one of many tools they use to evenly distribute crowds throughout the year. It's also one of many factors that has ensured that there are almost no slow "seasons" anymore, and you now typically get a few days here and there at most of light crowds.
Conversely, I wish there were "All FP+" days. This goes back to an earlier idea I had where, when you buy your daily ticket, you get a printout with a FP+ specified in 30-minute windows for every ride in the park. Tell the computer how many people are in your party, where/what time you want to eat, and it spits out reserved ride times for the whole day.
Presto! No waiting in stand-by lines, and none of that pesky "spontaneity" getting in the way of having a good time.
mikejs78
Premium Member
TouringPlans regularly criticizes Disney, does their own research, and has their own methodology for determining wait times. They categorically state that their research is their own and that they are not affiliated with Disney, nor do they let Disney influence their work. So either they are being upfront and honest, or you're accusing them of lying. If you believe they are lying, please provide the evidence you have that this is the case. Otherwise don't make unsubstantiated accusations.
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mikejs78
Premium Member
Eh I dont like this idea and I do think the lack of spontenaity argument is legit. I don't like the advance reservation system, which helps Disney more than it helps customers. But FP itself - the idea of a virtual line - is useful. Like I said previously, I would prefer something similar to Disneyland's MaxPass. Right balance of spontenaity and efficiency, IMO. Problem is WDW can't go that route because of it's poor capacity planning over the last decade.
mikejs78
Premium Member
This is exactly right and how it works.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Well I guess you can always not plan and wing it, but depending on what you want to see if you go once every 5 years, that wouldn't really work.
They also point out that they rely on POSTED wait times, not actual wait times. There's been lots of discussion about how those figures appear to be manipulated by WDW to influence ride selection.
Garbage in, garbage out.
geekza
Well-Known Member
Disney would most certainly not approve of a site that presents data showing that the company regularly presents information to guests that is inaccurate and, often, purposefully so. The Unofficial Guide, which is co-written by Touring Plan's @lentesta, also is chock full of evaluations and criticism from actual guests that, if you've ever read it, doesn't tow the corporate line. as @mikejs78 said, there is heaps of evidence disputing your statement, but nothing that substantiates it.
geekza
Well-Known Member
They use posted wait times, but they also collect actual wait times from guests who submit them.
mikejs78
Premium Member
That's incorrect. Their app.contains posted and actual wait times. Their methodology does not rely on posted wait times. It analyzes them as an input but they know full well that they are often inflated.
If you look at the lines app at any given time you can see that their actual time almost always differs from the posted time. Often it's less, sometimes it's more. So no, the posted time isn't what is relied on.
"People may ask why we are focusing so much on posted wait times, when what is important is the actual wait time. The answer is that we are leveraging the information we have. Out of the millions of wait times we have, less than 1% of the data are actual wait times. Fortunately, the 1% gives us a way to predict the actual wait time based on the posted wait time. Another problem with that actual wait times we do have is that they are usually for times of day when it is optimal to ride an attraction. We do not have much data for actual wait times for the longest wait times of the day. For example, over the past two years, we only have two actual wait times for Soarin’ where the wait time is over two hours." -- From their blog post on how they compute crowd levels.
Kman101
Well-Known Member
And people still want to argue FP hasn't made an impact. It absolutely has. Not sure why it's always dismissed as not a problem. It is. Disneyland has hordes of people crowding their park and into New Orleans Square with their Pirates and they decided to NOT implement FP. What does that tell everyone?
The fact is, standby is almost at a standstill most times. FP breezes by everyone. It's nice but that's why there's a lengthy standby line. Do most of you not realize that if there was no FP line, the standby line would be constantly moving (more or less, of course depending on ride shutdowns, etc.)? And wait times would not be so constant at "40" "120" etc?
Yes, there are definitely more people in the park and they haven't kept up with the capacity, they've tried to distribute it around and control it instead of, you know, building ... and even with building they're still going to have problems.
BoarderPhreak
Well-Known Member
I hope attendance keeps dropping. At least until my next trip. 
Kman101
Well-Known Member
I hope attendance keeps dropping. At least until my next trip.
Heh.
I'm not one to say "remember the good ole days" but there was a period of time when Disney actually had slow periods and they didn't act like the sky was falling and they'd be putting up the "CLOSED" sign tomorrow.
I understand them wanting the parks constantly busy but they've truly lost sight of giving the guests a comfortable experience ...
geekza
Well-Known Member
Fair enough, but that still doesn't support your assertion that they are somehow in bed with Disney.
trainplane3
Well-Known Member
All I know is a full HM queue during EMH was 20 minutes vs 45+ during normal hours. SM was about 20 as well from the old "games" area vs the 30+ it is with FP active. BTM was a solid 15 for a full queue. I've never seen it move so fast. Either dump FP+ or make it limited enough that it doesn't destroy queue times.