News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[Princess Leia]

Okay, so I just got back from Universal, and I have a few thoughts:

Ride times didn’t seem to be inflated at all. It really seemed like we waited for the times listed (and for Potter, the lines were all longer than last November, but that for the IoA rides, that was probably because Uni closed early for HHN).

Once Uni closed, more people flooded IoA, and it seemed pretty noticeable. Jurassic Park ticked up from a 5 minute wait to a 25 minute wait.

The Harry Potter sections are by far the most maintained and immersive, and it would be nice to see the rest of Universal step up. I can’t judge US all that well, because most of my time spent there is in Diagon Alley, but when you get to IoA, you can tell the park could be thriving if they spent a little money on it. Seuss looks so tired. Marvel needs a update badly; I went on Storm with three friends (side note, it gets a little cramped with three men and one woman in those things), and all we could talk about in our short queue was how 90s it looked. I’m glad that film characters aren’t portrayed, but an update somewhere would help. The Lost Continent is... Lost. You have Hogsmeade, which is getting love with the new coaster, and then there’s the other half (which is an empty theater and Poseidon, which 6/7 people in my group loved, A+ actor today). I don’t think it’s fair to compare IoA and Epcot, but both are theme parks that were pretty complacent for awhile and now they both seem behind the 8ball (except IoA got help from Potter).

I definitely expect IoA to get a boost next year with the new HP coaster.

 

[lentesta]

It’s

Speaking of @lentesta, I've found the wait times in his Lines app (which sometimes is similar to the MDE wait times, often shorter, occasionally longer) to generally be more percise than the posted wait times... @lentesta based on your modeling, does it seem Disney is often inflating the standby wait time vs what's actual? How often do they do this?

Inflating wait times is the standard. It is done on most rides, most of the time.

 

[Rich Brownn]

When I worked at Disney in the 70s, we'd not inflate wait times at the end of the day as much as stack the queue (close off all of it so the line stretched outside the attraction) as a way of hoping people would just bypass it. At Universal we'd estimate wait times by the length of the line (we knew at a certain length is 10 minutes, etc).

 

[DisneyCane]

Having visited Wednesday and Thursday this week and been to all four parks at some point, if this is soft attendance, I don't want to be anywhere near there if it was the projected level. Not just the wait times but the cried waking around the parks were far from light!

 

[Princess Leia]

When I worked at Disney in the 70s, we'd not inflate wait times at the end of the day as much as stack the queue (close off all of it so the line stretched outside the attraction) as a way of hoping people would just bypass it. At Universal we'd estimate wait times by the length of the line (we knew at a certain length is 10 minutes, etc).

That actually happened over at Spaceship Earth last Wednesday. All of the switchbacks were closed, so there was just one long straight line spilling out onto the pavement. Eventually, the CM at the entrance opened up part of the queue again

 

[ABQ]

That actually happened over at Spaceship Earth last Wednesday. All of the switchbacks were closed, so there was just one long straight line spilling out onto the pavement. Eventually, the CM at the entrance opened up part of the queue again

They probably didn't want to open the switchbacks as the incredibly dumb FP+ entrance line makes the use of the switchbacks overly complicated when they cross the FP+ line.

 

[disneyflush]

They definitely inflate. The other day I had a FP for Peter Pan and got stopped by the CM computer. So of course I had to look. It had a box for posted standby wait time that listed it at 60 minutes and then a box next to it that said actual standby wait time and it said 12 minutes. Disney knows what it is doing to control the crowds, and I definitely won't ever trust the wait signs anymore.

Feel like this might get buried. So you literally saw 2 different boxes on the CM computer with one labeled as 'ACTUAL STANDBY WAIT TIME' and the other labeled as 'POSTED STANDBY WAIT TIME'? Can anyone else confirm CM computers have this information?

 

[kelknight84]

Feel like this might get buried. So you literally saw 2 different boxes on the CM computer with one labeled as 'ACTUAL STANDBY WAIT TIME' and the other labeled as 'POSTED STANDBY WAIT TIME'? Can anyone else confirm CM computers have this information?

That is correct.

 

[RustySpork]

Feel like this might get buried. So you literally saw 2 different boxes on the CM computer with one labeled as 'ACTUAL STANDBY WAIT TIME' and the other labeled as 'POSTED STANDBY WAIT TIME'? Can anyone else confirm CM computers have this information?

I can confirm that @kelknight84 said those words, does that help?

 

[Maeryk]

Anecdotally, this past weekend, almost every posted wait time I saw was inflated by 25%-50%. It's obviously intentional and no doubt an important piece of their crowd management strategy.

How are they factoring the wait times? Still doing red lanyards? Have they put the long rumored real time tracking of the long range RFID in the magic bands into place, to get constant realtime updates? Were they using ANY actual metric based on real people, or just a computer that was estimating based on bodies through the gate, time of day, and past performance?

Because I've had PP be wrong in both directions.. a 40 minute estimate that turned out to be about 20 minutes, and a 35 minute estimate that ended up well over an hour.

 

[monothingie]

So the obvious question to the OP how long did you wait? 12 minutes or 60 minutes?

 

[Maeryk]

Feel like this might get buried. So you literally saw 2 different boxes on the CM computer with one labeled as 'ACTUAL STANDBY WAIT TIME' and the other labeled as 'POSTED STANDBY WAIT TIME'? Can anyone else confirm CM computers have this information?

Of course they would have that information. That box that says "Actual" is what the RFID tracker/red badge/however they are tracking it is reporting, and the other is how you change the sign out front.

I'd _assume_ the sign is going to run an average, or else it would be changing every 5 minutes. But I can also see why they would use it to control crowds in some cases as well. And it's not like it's a guarantee, or ever has been. It's an estimated wait time.

 

[HauntedPirate]

I've always looked at the posted wait times as what the wait time has been. We used to hop in line for TSM with a posted 75 minute wait and be on the ride in 30-45 minutes. 7DMT was the same, hopped in line when the posted time was 75 and we were on in about 50 minutes.

 

[Maeryk]

I've always looked at the posted wait times as what the wait time has been. We used to hop in line for TSM with a posted 75 minute wait and be on the ride in 30-45 minutes. 7DMT was the same, hopped in line when the posted time was 75 and we were on in about 50 minutes.

Yep. If the last two people given a lanyard (on that system) pocketed it instead of turning it in (after posting "I have been chosen!" to reddit first, of course), then the ride is going to display whatever it's last info was. The RFID tracking was supposed to fix that, but I have no idea if it's been implemented yet on anything, let alone older rides not built to take advantage of it.

 

[disneyflush]

Of course they would have that information. That box that says "Actual" is what the RFID tracker/red badge/however they are tracking it is reporting, and the other is how you change the sign out front.

I'd _assume_ the sign is going to run an average, or else it would be changing every 5 minutes. But I can also see why they would use it to control crowds in some cases as well. And it's not like it's a guarantee, or ever has been. It's an estimated wait time.

I see. I assumed the posted wait time was automated somehow when the infrastructure was overhauled a few years ago based on RFID/Magic Band/Fastpss+ information. Definitely makes sense if the CM is physically changing that number at a set interval.

 

[kelknight84]

So the obvious question to the OP how long did you wait? 12 minutes or 60 minutes?

Well we had a FP so neither! But Im pretty sure the mouse knows the actual waits but chooses a high or low time to either get guests in line or stay away based on demand. Honestly I don't think they are realistic anymore and are just used for crowd control.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Thursday, Nov. 1, 11:22AM, Flight of Passage, standby 105 minutes.... Its too bad the lower attendance does nothing to lower wait times!

 

[LSLS]

Thursday, Nov. 1, 11:22AM, Flight of Passage, standby 105 minutes.... Its too bad the lower attendance does nothing to lower wait times!

Funny you mention this, but no mention that 7 dwarfs is 60, Slinky Dog at 50, Peter Pan 45, Soarin at 35, Space at 25, etc. Only FoP, Navi, and Test Track are over an hour.

And as other have stated numerous times, Disney inflates those stand by times. Going back to the card discussion, my Feb. trip, we got in a 7 dwarf line we thought looked shorter than the posted 110 minutes. We waited 25 minutes. The person behind us had a red card. The wait time when we got off had INCREASED to 120 minutes.

I have no idea how busy it is right now (think this is a slower period, but no idea how slow normal is, especially with the half marathon this week), but the stand by lines certainly don't make me think this is a jammed day.

 

[CJR]

Funny you mention this, but no mention that 7 dwarfs is 60, Slinky Dog at 50, Peter Pan 45, Soarin at 35, Space at 25, etc. Only FoP, Navi, and Test Track are over an hour..

Those rides also have something in common, "Hard to get Fastpass" (some lesser than others). The real indicator is how the less popular (for FP) rides are doing, like Dinosaur, Star Tours, SSE, Haunted Mansion. More often than not, you can breeze right through the line on slow days. The big FP rides will always be busy because everyone wants those, even on the slow days, those are the ones people are going to.

 

[Texas84]

Thursday, Nov. 1, 11:22AM, Flight of Passage, standby 105 minutes.... Its too bad the lower attendance does nothing to lower wait times!

That's nothing for FoP. I'm used to 2-3 hour waits. I can handle 105 easy in that queue.