News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[Goofyernmost]

All I know is that if Fast Pass is eliminated, I will sell my DVC and quit going. And, I can assure you that there are many others who would do the same. We don't do lines with longer than 20-30 minute waits and there are no longer slow times. The same goes if they make everyone start paying for FP.

I will start going back, so I guess we will cancel each other out. In my mind, the only people that would stop going because of no FP, really are only there to see how quickly they can get into a ride and have no real appreciation for the effort that has gone into queue's, or the many attractions that they will never see because they just can't always get a FP. If someone appreciates the imagination, and workmanship that goes into all of Disney attractions they will realize just how much they are missing by insisting that a FP is the only way to enjoy the parks. But, that is a personal decision. If there are that many that would quit going because they eliminated FP, it will be a good opportunity to thin the crowds. They already got your money when you bought your DVC so, they stand to lose almost nothing.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I will start going back

Are you saying that you are currently boycotting WDW because of FP+?

 

[mikejs78]

To quote Mark Twain... "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Not to get pedantic, but that statement isn't Twain's (although he quoted it in his autobiography). It also is taken out of context. Twain was referring to it in regards to an error he made in certain calculations, not as an indicment of statistics in general (Twain was actually a fan of stats).

my memory is quite good and, remember, I actually was there when FP was introduced and I will guarantee you that it made a difference.

My memory is as well. I also was there when FP was introduced. And I guarantee you it made lines better. So now we have two divergent, equally valid opinions that can't be proven one way or the other, which gets us exactly nowhere.

The problem with the Data is that it is taking a look at total people, however, to really understand the truth, it must be looked at as individuals and how it affects those individuals in that standby line. If the ride can take 1400 people per hour, it will never take more then 1400, the difference is where you are in line. It is possible with FP now to be the 1000th person to enter the line and you will not be part of the 1400 that actually get on the ride during that hour. Without FP and you entered the regular line as the 1000th there will still be 400 behind you when you get on the ride. But, even the 1400th in line will be on the ride in that hour.

That's a fallicy because now 1400 people won't be boarding the standby line because many of those people will have FPs. So the standby line will have fewer people, even though the wait time is the same.

In my mind, the only people that would stop going because of no FP, really are only there to see how quickly they can get into a ride and have no real appreciation for the effort that has gone into queue's, or the many attractions that they will never see because they just can't always get a FP. If someone appreciates the imagination, and workmanship that goes into all of Disney attractions they will realize just how much they are missing by insisting that a FP is the only way to enjoy the parks.

They are not mutually exclusive. One can both enjoy the workmanshp and imagination that goes into a Disney park (I do, very much so) and also appreciate FP and the ability to wait less for major attractions while enjoying other parts of the park. I live in New England, so I don't get to go all that often - once a year at best, but often only once every 2 or 3 years - so I need to be able to maximize the time I have there, since I can't just pop in every weekend or even every few months ..

 

[Goofyernmost]

Are you saying that you are currently boycotting WDW because of FP+?

No, just exaggerating to make a point, sort of like you just did. Nice work.

 

[MisterPenguin]

No, just exaggerating to make a point, sort of like you just did. Nice work.

Just did? Like when?

 

[Goofyernmost]

Not to get pedantic, but that statement isn't Twain's (although he quoted it in his autobiography). It also is taken out of context. Twain was referring to it in regards to an error he made in certain calculations, not as an indicment of statistics in general (Twain was actually a fan of stats).



My memory is as well. I also was there when FP was introduced. And I guarantee you it made lines better. So now we have two divergent, equally valid opinions that can't be proven one way or the other.



That's a fallicy because now 1400 people won't be boarding the standby line because many of those people will have FPs. So the standby line will have fewer people, even though the wait time is the same.



They are not mutually exclusive. One can both enjoy the workmanshp and imagination that goes into a Disney park (I do, very much so) and also appreciate FP and the ability to wait less for major attractions while enjoying other parts of the park. I live in New England, so I don't get to go all that often - once a year at best, but often only once every 2 or 3 years - so I need to be able to maximize the time I have there, since I can't just pop in every weekend or even every few months ..

Yup, and I quoted Mr. Twain, and unless you have had a personal conversation then my usage of it is true as well as yours is.

Your memory is based on the time spent in the FP line, not in the standby line because it is physically impossible for the standby line to move the same speed as it did when it was the only option simply because the Standby line has to stop constantly to let huge numbers of people that arrived at the attraction after they did, go ahead of them. 1400 was a number I pulled out of the air it wasn't intended to be an exact figure. It was just to be used to use simple illustration so that the lowest common denominator might understand what is being said. Let me try again. There's a group of us that have decided to go to Splash Mtn. all at the same time. 700 had to go to the standby line because FP's were no longer available and 700 went in the FP line. Many of that 700 arrived at the attraction after you were already in the standby line. The ride has a capacity of 1400 people per hour. So we all get in our respective lines. While we are standing there the FP people are being ushered in, probably given sparkling water, at a rate much faster then the Standby line. In the meantime more and more FP people are joining the FP line and they will be given preference to boarding so the 700th person in the standby line will watch no only the initial 700 FPers go on in while they stay standing in one spot, but, now another 200 (also a made up number used just for illustration) have also joined the line and will also be given special treatment and be allowed to go right on it. So now we are up to 1600 people and the 900 people in the FP line will all be getting in before that poor sad 700th person in Standby even gets close. This whole discussion has been about how FP has slowed down the non-FP line. And there is physically no way that it doesn't do that. Just allowing one person ahead of any number of people in standby physically has to slow it down and the more people with FP the slower it will go.

You're having a slight problem in understanding. I went every year from New England for 23 years. Still got to see everything that they have to offer and I never go there for over 4 days at a time. Can we also take a lesson in the nuances of the written and spoken word in the English language. Listen, I said you can believe what you want, and obviously you are planning to do just that. So, just accept that I don't agree with you and move on.

Oh, and also I have been in the FP line and I know that you don't have time to stop and look at anything. Once in the ride both sides see the same thing, but, in my mind getting there is at least half the fun.

 

[mikejs78]

Yup, and I quoted Mr. Twain, and unless you have had a personal conversation then my usage of it is true as well as yours is.

Here's the quote in context:

I was very young in those days, exceedingly young, marvelously young, younger than I am now, younger than I shall ever be again, by hundreds of years. I worked every night from eleven or twelve until broad day in the morning, and as I did two hundred thousand words in the sixty days, the average was more than three thousand words a day -— nothing for Sir Walter Scott, nothing for Louis Stevenson, nothing for plenty of other people, but quite handsome for me. In 1897, when we were living in Tedworth Square, London, and I was writing the book called "Following the Equator" my average was eighteen hundred words a day; here in Florence (1904), my average seems to be fourteen hundred words per sitting of four or five hours.
I was deducing from the above that I have been slowing down steadily in these thirty-six years, but I perceive that my statistics have a defect: three thousand words in the spring of 1868 when I was working seven or eight or nine hours at a sitting has little or no advantage over the sitting of to-day, covering half the time and producing half the output. Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force:
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

He's talking about his own inability to calculate the amount he was able to write properly, not about the nature of statistics...

And just to keep this on topic, I wonder if the softness will reduce the hours of The American Adventure, at which Mark Twain is one of the main characters?

There's a group of us that have decided to go to Splash Mtn. all at the same time. 700 had to go to the standby line because FP's were no longer available and 700 went in the FP line. Many of that 700 arrived at the attraction after you were already in the standby line. The ride has a capacity of 1400 people per hour.

Lines don't form linearly, but let's say they do. Let's say the attraction has 1400 pph and 700 people line up for it, and another 700 people get Fastpasses. Those 700 are distributed over the course of the hour (by the use of divergent FastPass return times), they don't all get on at once.

In the meantime more and more FP people are joining the FP line and they will be given preference to boarding so the 700th person in the standby line will watch no only the initial 700 FPers go on in while they stay standing in one spot, but, now another 200 (also a made up number used just for illustration) have also joined the line and will also be given special treatment and be allowed to go right on it. So now we are up to 1600 people and the 900 people in the FP line will all be getting in before that poor sad 700th person in Standby even gets close.

Nope. Because the 900 people won't all be given the same FP return time as the time you are waiting in line for. They'll be distributed throughout the day (or the hour, in your case) due to diverging FP return windows. In a Pre-FP era, those 900 people would be in line with the 700. And, if you're going in the middle of the day, another 500 or so people would be in line in addition to that (again, picking numbers for illustration). So now you have 2100 people in line. Now, because of FP+, 500 of those people in line can't get FP return times during that hour, so they get them later in the day, at less crowded times. So now your middle-of-the day standby line is only 1600, much less than what it was before FP. So you only have to wait a little more than an hour for your attraction instead of a full 90 minutes..

This whole discussion has been about how FP has slowed down the non-FP line. And there is physically no way that it doesn't do that. Just allowing one person ahead of any number of people in standby physically has to slow it down and the more people with FP the slower it will go.

Except before FP+, all those people would be in the line, making the line *longer*. So the line may appear to move faster, but in actuality, the line is longer, so it takes a similar amount of time.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Just did? Like when?

You're correct that was a mis-statement that is part of the english language and is almost as much hyperbole as the post that I was responding too. So, no I am not staying away JUST because of FP, but it is part of it, but, I am staying away. Not sure what point you made, but, it really isn't all that important other then just expressing yourself. Sorry, you are not the only one that can do that. Have a magical day.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You're correct that was a mis-statement that is part of the english language and is almost as much hyperbole as the post that I was responding too. So, no I am not staying away JUST because of FP, but it is part of it, but, I am staying away. Not sure what point you made, but, it really isn't all that important other then just expressing yourself. Sorry, you are not the only one that can do that. Have a magical day.

Show that to your family and friends and ask them if you're making sense.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Here's the quote in context:



And just to keep this on topic, I wonder if the softness will reduce the hours of The American Adventure, at which Mark Twain is one of the main characters?



Lines don't form linearly, but let's say they do. Let's say the attraction has 1400 pph and 700 people line up for it, and another 700 people get Fastpasses. Those 700 are distributed over the course of the hour (by the use of divergent FastPass return times), they don't all get on at once.



Nope. Because the 900 people won't all be given the same FP return time as the time you are waiting in line for. They'll be distributed throughout the day (or the hour, in your case) due to diverging FP return windows. In a Pre-FP era, those 900 people would be in line with the 700. And, if you're going in the middle of the day, another 500 or so people would be in line in addition to that (again, picking numbers for illustration). So now you have 2100 people in line. Now, because of FP+, 500 of those people in line can't get FP return times during that hour, so they get them later in the day, at less crowded times. So now your middle-of-the day standby line is only 1600, much less than what it was before FP. So you only have to wait a little more than an hour for your attraction instead of a full 90 minutes..



Except before FP+, all those people would be in the line, making the line *longer*. So the line may appear to move faster, but in actuality, the line is longer, so it takes a similar amount of time.

Never mind, you are never going to understand and frankly I'm tired of trying to explain it. As far as Mark Twain is concerned, I don't care if it was a quote of a quote, it has nothing to do with this conversation, it was as a support for what I believe. And no, I will never accept that data is as accurate as actual witnessing. So hug your numbers and enjoy.

As far as the rest of it is concerned... No kidding... they don't all show up at the same time? Really... it must be tough going through life that literally. And it didn't make the line longer all it made it was more fair. If you were 1400 in that line you would still be on the ride within and hour. Now you can go through the FP line and spend less time at the expense of people that paid the same to get in the park that you did, and mostly through no fault of their own had to sacrifice their valuable time, so that you could merrily skip on in front. It seems like someone that has so much faith in numbers would be able to understand the laws of physics, mass and motion and the part about how every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

But, can we please move on. Thanks.

 

[Tom Morrow]

ANY competent person that has ever worked at a popular Disney attraction that utilizes Fastpass will tell you the same thing - it artificially inflates the standby lines to longer than what they would be if it did not exist. You can choose to take Disney's PR statements about how it doesn't actually make a difference at face value, but understand that they're absolutely going to skew and present the data in a favorable way, because for Fastpass to work, people have to believe that it is beneficial and worth keeping in place. The great lie about Disney's Fastpass is that it allows you to ride "more". The truth is that you HAVE to use it to experience the same amount of attractions you would have been able to if it didn't exist at all. Yes, there are some positives to the system, such as more time for shopping, dining, and strolling around. But that's exactly why Disney created it - people are "virtually" in line, enabling them more time to spend money. You also now more or less must book your Fastpasses in advance if you want a shot at three good ones.

 

[mikejs78]

ANY competent person that has ever worked at a popular Disney attraction that utilizes Fastpass will tell you the same thing - it artificially inflates the standby lines to longer than what they would be if it did not exist. You can choose to take Disney's PR statements about how it doesn't actually make a difference at face value, but understand that they're absolutely going to skew and present the data in a favorable way, because for Fastpass to work, people have to believe that it is beneficial and worth keeping in place. The great lie about Disney's Fastpass is that it allows you to ride "more". The truth is that you HAVE to use it to experience the same amount of attractions you would have been able to if it didn't exist at all. Yes, there are some positives to the system, such as more time for shopping, dining, and strolling around. But that's exactly why Disney created it - people are "virtually" in line, enabling them more time to spend money. You also now more or less must book your Fastpasses in advance if you want a shot at three good ones.

I'm not going by Disney's data. I'm going by TouringPlans's historical observed data (which is actual wait times as opposed to Disney posted wait times). They have no reason to skew the data.

Again, cast members are presenting anecdotal evidence - and sometimes perception and reality differ, and that's definitely the case here.

I certainly have issues with the current FP+ system - I'm not a fan of the 30/60 days out reservation, for example (I'd prefer a MaxPass style system), and I think the tiers have inflated waits on secondary attractions at the other three parks. But I have not seen data which supports the idea that the regular line increases with FP+. Show me data that illustrates that, and I'll be happy to look at it.

 

[larryz]

Are you saying that you are currently boycotting WDW because of FP+?

That is so 2013...

 

[Casper Gutman]

Data trumps anecdotal evidence, and the best day we have is to compare standby times on similar days the year before FP+ and the year after (thanks to TouringPlans historical crowd calendar). And what it shows is no appreciable wait in standby times. Some attractions had slightly longer average standby times after FP+, others had decently shorter times (specifically the e tickets like Splash, Space, and BTM. ). But aggregated over all attractions, standby time was pretty constant at MK. (The other parks are a different story due to tiering, which intrduces a whole other variable that really messed things up...). The other thing FP+ does is distribute crowds throughout the day, softening the peaks. So standby time at 2 PM at most attractions is actually less than it was before FP, but it is longer at say, 7 PM than it was before FP+. So it softens the peaks. So no, FP+ by itself doesn't increase standby times appreciably, and the data exists to prove it.

I don’t think touring plans provides the data we need to fully analayze the impact of FP+. We’d need hour by hour wait times for each attraction, and tp only seems to provide averages for the whole day. I want to know the difference in line length at Space Mountain at 9 am on Dec 4 2012 vs Space Mountain at 9 am on Dec 4 2014. After all, those (like me) who loathe FP+ claim that it’s main impact is to ensure that rides always have lines - they never spike astronomically high, but they also never fall as low as they used to. It was those lows WDW fans were used to taking advantage of.

Also, I’m not sure about you methodology here. Just out of curiosity, I picked Dec 4 and compared (daily average) wait times at Space and Splash Mountain for 2012 vs 2014. They rose from about 10 mins in 2012 to 17 mins in 2014. That’s just one data point, but it’s quite a significant increase. It suggests that, in key ways, FP+ did change queue patterns.

 

[Naplesgolfer]

I don’t think touring plans provides the data we need to fully analayze the impact of FP+. We’d need hour by hour wait times for each attraction, and tp only seems to provide averages for the whole day. I want to know the difference in line length at Space Mountain at 9 am on Dec 4 2012 vs Space Mountain at 9 am on Dec 4 2014. After all, those (like me) who loathe FP+ claim that it’s main impact is to ensure that rides always have lines - they never spike astronomically high, but they also never fall as low as they used to. It was those lows WDW fans were used to taking advantage of.

Also, I’m not sure about you methodology here. Just out of curiosity, I picked Dec 4 and compared (daily average) wait times at Space and Splash Mountain for 2012 vs 2014. They rose from about 10 mins in 2012 to 17 mins in 2014. That’s just one data point, but it’s quite a significant increase. It suggests that, in key ways, FP+ did change queue patterns.

Just look at the attendance increase between 2012 and 2014. I think it explain's most of the change you are highlighting.

 

[DisneyCane]

ANY competent person that has ever worked at a popular Disney attraction that utilizes Fastpass will tell you the same thing - it artificially inflates the standby lines to longer than what they would be if it did not exist. You can choose to take Disney's PR statements about how it doesn't actually make a difference at face value, but understand that they're absolutely going to skew and present the data in a favorable way, because for Fastpass to work, people have to believe that it is beneficial and worth keeping in place. The great lie about Disney's Fastpass is that it allows you to ride "more". The truth is that you HAVE to use it to experience the same amount of attractions you would have been able to if it didn't exist at all. Yes, there are some positives to the system, such as more time for shopping, dining, and strolling around. But that's exactly why Disney created it - people are "virtually" in line, enabling them more time to spend money. You also now more or less must book your Fastpasses in advance if you want a shot at three good ones.

Agree that you have to use FP to ride the same quantity of rides in the same amount of time. The question is, on a similar crowd level day before and after FP (not FP+, but original FP also), what is your average wait time to do the same number of attractions?

There is one case where FP+ is beneficial. If you are a passholder or have a very long stay and only want to hit a few rides in a day, you can do 3 "good" rides in a little over an hour (at least at MK without Tiers). For example if you have Splash 9-10, BTM 10-11 and SM 11-12 you can get to Splash just before 10, go from there to BTM and make your way to TL (with a snack on the way) and get to SM right at 11.

There is no other benefit to the system and it makes it a pain sometimes as a passholder because you have to guess what days you are likely to go at 30 days out. Under FP classic edition, you could be spontaneous and decide to go in the morning and still be able to get FP for the popular rides at some point during the day and have normal/reasonable waits for the non-FP attractions. Under the old system, you could also go to Epcot in the morning, do TT and/or Soarin' before the first FP window started and then get a FP for much later in the day. With a FP for TT at 5:15 PM, you could then head to MK for a few hours and use the FP system there and head back to Epcot. Ah, the "good old days." I wish they'd at least let passholders spread the 3 reservations in multiple parks.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

it artificially inflates the standby lines

Who uses standby lines?

 

[Tom Morrow]

I'm not going by Disney's data. I'm going by TouringPlans's historical observed data (which is actual wait times as opposed to Disney posted wait times). They have no reason to skew the data.

Again, cast members are presenting anecdotal evidence - and sometimes perception and reality differ, and that's definitely the case here.

I certainly have issues with the current FP+ system - I'm not a fan of the 30/60 days out reservation, for example (I'd prefer a MaxPass style system), and I think the tiers have inflated waits on secondary attractions at the other three parks. But I have not seen data which supports the idea that the regular line increases with FP+. Show me data that illustrates that, and I'll be happy to look at it.

I'm fairly certain that TouringPlans is heavily influenced by Disney.

Who uses standby lines?

Everyone who doesn't have a Fastpass for an attraction but wants to ride it?

 

[Casper Gutman]

Who uses standby lines?

People who enjoy spontaneity on vacation and think there should be a difference between the levels of planning required for a day at a theme park and a day at work.

 

[TeriofTerror]

I'm fairly certain that TouringPlans is heavily influenced by Disney.

I'm fairly certain that's not true.