News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[winstongator]

Those numbers are not independent...they are crafted for PR...

So I bet that attendance will be flat or “slightly increase” with “significant increase in per guest spending”

There are other sources of crowd numbers besides WDW. I would expect the numbers they report in their annual reports to be accurate, to the best of their knowledge. They're measuring it, so reporting false numbers could get one into big trouble.

I'd bet the annual report will show attendance down, probably 2%. Guest spending will be up, probably more than 2%.

 

[EpcotMark]

Word from inside the park is that there are signs of some significant slowdown in attendance this month.

Alarm bells are beginning to sound, with various areas being asked to trim back labor and begin cost saving measures.

For those of you who may not be regular readers, this isn't entirely new, and has occurred several times over the last couple of years.

Just lower the costs. They'll come back.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

But it does beg the question, if attendance is down by 30% and someone told me its been down since 2016 why is everyone saying its packed

Sept. 2018 was down 30% off of projections. It has been down 2-4% each quarter since Summer 2016 except 4th quarter 2017, which was flat. It wasn't until Sept that the numbers truly fell off a cliff.

Reports are saying Oct. is looking better, but not great.

And as far as reporting numbers to the SDC and shareholders, you'll notice that they lump WDW, DLR, and DCL together as "Domestic Resorts". It makes it easier to hide underperforming entities.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are other sources of crowd numbers besides WDW. I would expect the numbers they report in their annual reports to be accurate, to the best of their knowledge. They're measuring it, so reporting false numbers could get one into big trouble.

I'd bet the annual report will show attendance down, probably 2%. Guest spending will be up, probably more than 2%.

There are no sec laws about accurately reporting attendance...money is a different issue.

I tend to believe their reporting when compared to increases/decreases...but I’m not sure we ever really know how many “butts are in seats”...per se. There is really no way to know from the outside.

Undercover tourist is just guess work to try to piggy back some income off the operation...

A resource...but grain of salt.

And you hit it on the head: 2% down and 2% up...

Why does that make sense on a corporate level? Because it would increase confidence in the stock without sending up a red flag...
Convenient...huh?

 

[wannabeBelle]

It was “ideal” when they ceased to follow their 50 year pattern of consistent reinvestment and prices began to be increased often and at whim??

...Oh do tell

I was laughing at Marni's post that said he did actually have access to the attendance numbers. Not at anything else I can assure you!! Marie

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was laughing at Marni's post that said he did actually have access to the attendance numbers. Not at anything else I can assure you!! Marie

Yeah...I laughed at that too

But what I meant was that the genesis of the current growing angst against management - and that is a real thing - started in Ernest in the mid 2000’s

 

[wannabeBelle]

Yeah...I laughed at that too

But what I meant was that the genesis of the current growing angst against management - and that is a real thing - started in Ernest in the mid 2000’s

Sorry it was just laughing, the other thing copied from something else incorrectly. I fixed my earlier post!! Thanks!! Marie

 

[Calmdownnow]

There’s bigger areas of concern.

So what might these areas of concern be? Is it a massive increase in the cost of imported steel because of tariffs just as Disney starts building Tron, Guardians of the Galaxy, Star Wars, Rat etc, a new Tower DVC and Tower at Coronado, while also promising a major makeover of EPCOT, a Star Wars Hotel and possible an EPCOT hotel? Massive cost overruns in each of those projects could be expected if there is a large metal content. Is it the fact that DVC resales are increasing as Direct sales slow, just as a large new DVC is set to come to market? Is it advance bookings from overseas guests (typically people who may be booking 12 months in advance) falling as free dining offers are reduced or as economies decline in their traditional markets?

Who knows...

Edit: Sorry, forgot to also mention the biggest steel-eater -- the new gondola system.

 

[marni1971]

...boy...I gotta get me one of dem vlogs or podcasts

You could. But you wouldn’t get far

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You could. But you wouldn’t get far

...that’s a given.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sept. 2018 was down 30% off of projections. It has been down 2-4% each quarter since Summer 2016 except 4th quarter 2017, which was flat. It wasn't until Sept that the numbers truly fell off a cliff.

Reports are saying Oct. is looking better, but not great.

And as far as reporting numbers to the SDC and shareholders, you'll notice that they lump WDW, DLR, and DCL together as "Domestic Resorts". It makes it easier to hide underperforming entities.

Yeah...I was gonna comment but you handled it.

“Down” is relative as it has a comparison point defined by the analyst...not set it stone.

Down by month? Quarter? Year over year? 5 years?

Not only that...but I’m sure disney projects “growth” for everything as 101% of public companies do...the idea is to sell more stock.

So if they tell the institutional investor they’re gonna be up 5...then come in at 2...that can be twisted as “down”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But don't numbers have to be somewhat verifiable?? I mean I'm thinking outside of Politicians can a company say it got 20 million visitors and not have the paid receipts to back it up.

Excellent joke...especially on another embarassing day.

But attendance numbers have never been verified in the academic sense...they are estimated and released.

So unless the revenues and profits are tied specifically to each individual guest on a flat rate basis...which they of course never can or will be...there’s nothing to guarantee that attendance has to be calculated 100% accurately

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You can't knowingly lie to the SEC or investors. At the same time, there aren't specific laws and regulations about how you count guests or report other numbers that are unique to your business. Practically speaking, as long as you aren't lying about the dollar values, you can get as creative as you want with the rest of it. (Within the bounds of reason.)

Hypothetically, 100 guests could buy park hopper tickets and each visit all 4 parks in a single day. There is nothing stopping Disney from simply saying 'There were 100 guests at each park today.' Sure, they know how many actual tickets were sold. Sure, they can probably track a good portion of those guests via their magic bands. But, they're not required to divulge that detail. Likewise, they could simply report that there were '100 visits to park X today'. They may or may not choose to report that 40 of those gate clicks were guests leaving and returning later in the day.

....exxxxxxactly.

You know the game...I shall follow you and you have my sword 🗡

 

[RustySpork]

Well with 130 minutes for Splash, 115 for BTMR, 130 for SDMT, 70 for TT and Frozen, 90 for RnR, 70 for SDD, and 150 for FoP it certainly doesn't seem like they're having a soft weekend this weekend.

 

[monothingie]

Well with 130 minutes for Splash, 115 for BTMR, 130 for SDMT, 70 for TT and Frozen, 90 for RnR, 70 for SDD, and 150 for FoP it certainly doesn't seem like they're having a soft weekend this weekend.

Holiday weekend. With reduced staffing?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well with 130 minutes for Splash, 115 for BTMR, 130 for SDMT, 70 for TT and Frozen, 90 for RnR, 70 for SDD, and 150 for FoP it certainly doesn't seem like they're having a soft weekend this weekend.

WDW did this amazing thing...since they decided to book reservations on kiddie rides...like booking a room at caesars...it’s become a whole Inefficient way of tracking crowds based on wait times

 

[Texas84]

Well with 130 minutes for Splash, 115 for BTMR, 130 for SDMT, 70 for TT and Frozen, 90 for RnR, 70 for SDD, and 150 for FoP it certainly doesn't seem like they're having a soft weekend this weekend.

Fall break for some schools in the south. Part of the reason?

 

[Dad 2 M & M]

Maybe the ongoing construction? Have you driven Victory lane form end to end lately? Entered Epcot through the International Gateway? Parked at DHS? Man oh man there is a lot going on.....

Were planning of another MNSSHP in a couple of weeks, but are steering clear of the Victory Lane/Epcot Resort Area and will probably stay at Music/Movies.......

 

[Touchdown]

More antidotal evidence:

I’m down in Orlando this week, mainly for Universal. It was dead Tues-Thur at Universal, HHN was not bad, for HHN, it was a little more crowded then last year. Friday the crowds picked up during the day, dramatically.

Went to MNSSHP Friday, longest wait I saw during my time there was 50 min for 7DMT, it was the deadest I’ve ever seen a party, after the official start 7DMT and Space were 30 min, Pan 20 and every other ride less then 10 min when I walked by.

Saturday, IOA was not crowded but the studios were summer crowded, HOS @ BGT was packed, the most people I’ve ever seen and this is not my first Columbus Day going.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe the ongoing construction? Have you driven Victory lane form end to end lately? Entered Epcot through the International Gateway? Parked at DHS? Man oh man there is a lot going on.....

Were planning of another MNSSHP in a couple of weeks, but are steering clear of the Victory Lane/Epcot Resort Area and will probably stay at Music/Movies.......

So people won’t go to the most visited family destination in history because victory way is under construction?

No offense...but that’s kinda a local take...which is a small percentage of the customers except on weekends such as now