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News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
Dad 2 M & M
Well-Known Member
Not sure why peeps aren't coming, but I'm flattered you'd want my take...and we don't expect attendance to be soft in the most visited family destination in history for long, so we are enjoying it while it lasts....
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I was at WDW the last week of September and first week of October. September was light. Starting this past Sunday, numbers surged. And then on Friday, even more so.
This is the Columbus Day (ptui!) Weekend.
So, you have all the expected October crowd as seen by WDW resorts being so fully booked (unlike for September) and a holiday weekend.
This is the Columbus Day (ptui!) Weekend.
So, you have all the expected October crowd as seen by WDW resorts being so fully booked (unlike for September) and a holiday weekend.
Tom Morrow
Well-Known Member
It really wasn't any different from any other summer.
HwdStudio
Well-Known Member
I just returned from a tw week stay and it was crowded. Very crowded. As were the Universal parks. I had never seen their parks so crowded. Both Disney and Universal made me very uncomfortable this last few weeks. I may have only noticed because I read it here but it was obvious to me that there were less CM’s. The night time crowd controllers just weren’t there and people were flooding sidewalks and paths making it impossible to do anything but shelter in place. I think we’ve about had enough. Our resort time was incredible as usual but the parks not so much. It could be because I read so much negative feedback from others to which I am usually defensive but I’m seeing things that just aren’t good. I’m a hipocrite for saying that but that’s how I feel. I honestly felt foolish for renewing my AP and giving Disney another dime. I am preparing to dump 3 of our DVC’s and cut back on Disney tremendously. Star Wars wouldn’t change my mind if it opened tomorrow. Crowds have outgrown the physical space in the parks and it just isn’t enjoyable.
Greg H
Active Member
Thanksgiving in Canada as well... Some schools try to set up a PD day on Friday with Monday off for the holiday. Some universities also have a partial or even full fall break next week to build off the holiday Monday...
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
From what I can tell...it was still oppressively hot...just 3 o’clock shower is now lasting a little longer/intermittent.
It rains in buckets for short periods...so average rainfall is very deceiving in Florida
Not enough of a difference to affect travel booked 12+ Months in advance.
The tone of this thread keeps veering towards the notion that a majority of the customers sit and decide within days/hours to go and show up. Not at all. Fall is heavy with Florida residents but at most that account should for 25%.
If crowds are down that was decided long ago. Two viable reasons are:
1. Construction
2. Price
iowamomof4
Well-Known Member
What about 3. Deciding it's just not worth it anymore (return visitors).
We went in 2015 and 2016 and then just couldn't afford it for awhile. We're trying to get a trip planned for 2019, but it's tough. I'd really like to get there before Star Wars opens (I'm a HUGE fan, but I wouldn't be able to handle the insanity of the first few months/years). Also, as expensive as Disney is now, I'm not willing to take out a home equity loan to pay for a trip as I suspect I would have to do if I want to go post SW:GE.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
3...is the real problem on disney forums...
The Disney defenders deny its existence...
The “haters”...like me...are scared to death this is gonna catch fire. Not because it affects me directly - but it could lead to events/policies that screw us all collectively.
iowamomof4
Well-Known Member
The first time we ever went we had a blast! I was so excited because I never thought I would be able to say I had been to Disney World and yet, there I was! When we got home I was wishing my brother would take his family because their kids were really at a great age and I knew they could afford it. They weren't very interested. Since then, I've realized Disney really isn't the place for them and my own enthusiasm has fallen off a bit. I still want to go, but I'm no longer singing its praises as I was immediately following our first trip. I don't even know what I would say if a friend asked me for advice on whether or not to go to WDW. A lot will depend on how our trip goes next year. I'm hoping (sort of) for a bit of a lull in the crowds, yet how many have the same idea as us (to get down there before the madness)? If enough feel the same way, it could be busier than ever as people try to squeeze in one last trip before the madness. Sigh. Now I'm just rambling so I'll stop. Not sure if I've really added to the conversation.
MrHorse
Active Member
[Emphasis mine]
Out of curiosity, what kinda policies are you picturing?
To my mind, a drop in attendance would be a solid win from the customer perspective. I imagine it providing accountability for the various price hikes and cuts that so many have been complaining about.
As I perceive it, barring something unpredictable (e.g., A new CEO with an unexpected enthusiasm for the parks, a sharp turn in public perception, etc.) a drop in attendance/profits is probably the only thing that could spur a return to the level of service many of us reminisce about.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The current management/board has not familial or emotional attachment to their product...so that could allow them to actively drain the value out of parks and jusifty it from a business standpoint. Investors don’t look for their stock to go up 3-5% over 30 years anymore. All bets are off.
So they will continue to increase all prices to compensate for loss of those they have priced out by choice...
That is in essence my fear. That’s not even a financial problem for me...it’s psychological. I will be priced out mentally way before I am economically:
There are other operational issue...but that’s the core fear.
But I gotta ask: you think if numbers drop they will increase the quality to get them back?
...really? That’s kinda old world in the context of our discussion, isnt it?
Well, we didn't get any 3 o'clock showers when we were there... I feel cheated. I need three any time FastPasses to make it up to me...
winstongator
Well-Known Member
What prompted Universal to give 15 & 18 month passes for the price they were charging for 12? A while back, the Disney 13-for-12 helped convince me to renew. They got me because I didn't visit in that extra month. I've bought but haven't activated Disney APs and am kicking around, not very seriously, this Universal deal and waiting a while to activate the WDW APs. That would require a re-working of multiple trips, but 6 months free is enticing.
Attendance declined in 2016. Disney had changed AP levels so that the price for a no-blackout for FL resident pass went up considerably. They countered with the 13-for-12 promotion. APs started today will be very close to lasting till GE opens. I don't see them running a promotion like that would make crowds worse then. They might play with summer blackout dates like they did this summer, opening June up - did that affect attendance in June? I expected a giant AP price increase, but given this trend, I'm not sure if it will be as giant as I expected. They also already increased in February
So Universal offers their deal now. If from now till Thanksgiving, you were considering a WDW AP to catch GE, you might, like me, be swayed by the deal Universal is offering. They are trying to pull attendance from WDW over that period. Or even, you get the Universal pass, then GE opening date is announced, but you think, I won't go to WDW until my Universal pass runs out. Say you buy in December, that runs till May 2020.
There's a lot of cap-ex already planned for the next 3 years, but they can still play with op-ex in ways that detract from the customer experience.
Attendance declined in 2016. Disney had changed AP levels so that the price for a no-blackout for FL resident pass went up considerably. They countered with the 13-for-12 promotion. APs started today will be very close to lasting till GE opens. I don't see them running a promotion like that would make crowds worse then. They might play with summer blackout dates like they did this summer, opening June up - did that affect attendance in June? I expected a giant AP price increase, but given this trend, I'm not sure if it will be as giant as I expected. They also already increased in February
So Universal offers their deal now. If from now till Thanksgiving, you were considering a WDW AP to catch GE, you might, like me, be swayed by the deal Universal is offering. They are trying to pull attendance from WDW over that period. Or even, you get the Universal pass, then GE opening date is announced, but you think, I won't go to WDW until my Universal pass runs out. Say you buy in December, that runs till May 2020.
There's a lot of cap-ex already planned for the next 3 years, but they can still play with op-ex in ways that detract from the customer experience.
MrHorse
Active Member
I am right there with you on being psychologically priced out. We dropped our passes and stopped visiting a couple of years ago after ~5 years of multiple trips per year. (We're in FL, and made a lot of 3-5 day 'long weekend' trips.) I've got a decently high income, we live below our means and have no children. Our income is ~60% disposable. The last few trips it just felt like they're trying to squeeze another $100 out of you at every turn. That isn't fun, regardless of whether you can afford it.
I definitely wouldn't put the parks being strip-mined out of the realm of possibility. It's certainly possible, but I don't see it as the most likely option.
I think the management realizes that the parks are a prestige item that carry a lot of non-tangible value. Selling them off, letting them fail, etc. would have a substantial impact on the value of 'Disney' as a brand. As long as 'Disney' is a major consumer-facing name, I don't see them purposefully letting that happen. Especially considering that, in all but the very worst of times the parks are quite profitable. It's beyond my ability to quantify, but Disney is one of the only large enterprises that the public loves and trusts in a substantial, durable way. While you, I and others will certainly disagree about how effectively the management is stewarding that goodwill, I think it's safe to say they are aware of it and assign a meaningful value to it.
Likewise, while I disagree about how far they can push the pricing/cuts, I have all faith that management realizes that their pricing is not completely inelastic. They are, after all, selling a luxury good.
For me the big question is what will they do when they hit the pricing/attendance wall:
-Will they 'Wal-Mart' the parks, i.e, lower prices and dramatically cut costs and chase the largest possible market? I don't think they're willing to accept the tighter profit margins that accompany this market.
-Will they chase a higher-end clientele and accept that they're pricing out a good chunk of the public? I don't see this happening. The parks, resorts, etc. are fundamentally built to serve large homogenous crowds as opposed to smaller ones that demand personalized service.)
-Will they roll everything back a little? i.e., Drop prices a bit, lay off the hikes for a while, accept that they need higher opex to maintain acceptable service levels, etc. I think this is most likely simply because it's the most straightforward approach. The icing on the cake would be if they went a step farther and decided P&R really needs someone passionate running it, or at least at the table when top-level decisions are made. That's probably getting into the realm of wishful thinking though.
RustySpork
Oscar Mayer Memer
Universal has don the 15 month promotion a few times now, the 18 month though now that's a steal.
eliza61nyc
Well-Known Member
I disagree. I think the Disney defenders actually like #3. If 3 is "not worth it anymore"
They consistently say, If you don't think WDW is worth the money stop going. If the prices are out if control stop going. If you( general user) think the new lands/rides/shows are lousy absolutely take a break.
What they think is strange is when folks complain and complain and then go back saying "we still have fun".
Really?? Or Disney was great decades ago so we know they are capable and actually believe that it's going to change.
I have no problem believing for some Disney is horrible, you come here to swap stories about how horrible it now almost every single post. Believe me, no way could a new comer here walk away with any other idea other than you guys are bitterly disapponted with it. I absolutely do not deny you feel it's gone downhill and is terrible.
Lol now I'll wait for the required, " no one said we hate it, we just know how much better it could be..."
So I'll echo @MrHorse people not giving their dough to Mr. Mouse is the best way to show your displeasure. So soft attendance could be a win win. The Disney defenders get empty parks and restaurants and those who feel its not worth the money get to save their cash.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I didn’t say defenders “hated it”...they just refuse to call any decisions “bad” or spin it into somehow being “great for them”.
I completely disagree with that...they have no intent of doing anyone any favors long term.