News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[jrlang1]

Does anyone know if this also includes other Disney properties, like cal or hk

 

[peter11435]

perhaps their concern is not so much about when it will correct itself, but how it happened in the first place.

Which makes these cuts potentially counter productive since a very possible cause of this downward trend is the diminished guest experience. Negatively impacting it further is not a viable solution.

 

[Princess Leia]

I posted these in another thread — threw them together quickly with attendance data.

View attachment 315688View attachment 315689

And here's the percent change numbers for just 2016 to 2017...

View attachment 315692

So, while MK and DHS remained virtually the same, it was Epcot that saw a significant uptick from the DAK growth.

While it's certainly possible that this year (calendar 2018) is going to be bad for Epcot, the narrative that it's been backsliding for a while isn't the case. Epcot has seen marginal growth every year for the past decade (with 2018 being an unknown at this point) except for a tiny backslide in 2010 (following the Great Recession).

View attachment 315693

And yes, TEA doesn't have exact numbers, but they use the same metrics every year, so, a year-to-year change is likely to be noted mostly accurately.

I’m actually surprised that Epcot had growth, unless it somehow got a push from Frozen?

 

[winstongator]

Bad:

• I think overcrowding will be a real problem. The land and park will have difficulty absorbing the mobs — most certainly initially and maybe for some time.

Good:

• I think that SWGE is likely to draw some visitors who have not been into Parks before now — at least once. A certain percentage will get hooked into return trips — customer acquisition. I doubt this effect was measurable with Pandora, so I’d expect greater things on this front — not that we’ll ever have hard data to prove this either way.
• I’d suspect this could increase attendance in other parks some — perhaps AK esp. with FoP and Pandora still being new-ish. This was not observed with Pandora 2016-2017, but we don’t even have one full year of data on that yet. Here, I think we have people putting off trips until after SWGE opens, and presumably they will go to more than just DHS.

Hollywood studios drew 10.7M guests in 2017, a year when it had reduced capacity and was not that crowded. 29k/day. SWGE seems to be a bigger land than Pandora, and will get as crowded if WDW lets it. Pandora's per-day attendance boost was around 9k, and it didn't make the rest of that park crowded. I can see more people wandering into the land to browse w/o FP+ when the waits are bad. The land might experience closures, but I don't think it will cause DHS to hit capacity. I remember my first visit to AK after Pandora in July and I was amazed how empty Everest was. I think you'll see shorter lines at TSL which many will really enjoy, as well as for people like me who love RnRC & ToT, shorter lines there. Will Mickey & Minnie Railway be a tier 1 FP? Will they want to use that to draw people out of SWGE? Will the TSL rides stay tier 1's. SW is already a draw to HS with Jedi Training, Launch Bay, the shows and marches, and to some extent Star Tours (one of my two memories of visiting MGM 20 years ago). SWGE will be insanely crowded, but the rest of the park will be OK. Baseline taphouse will do massive business for the people waiting on Grand Ave to get in.

I think the draw of non-core WDW guests will continue for a while. The hardest core SW fans will pack it early, but later, you'll get people like my dad. He'd rather not spend on WDW, but loved the OT. If GE can get him that feeling again, maybe that's what he wants to visit with my family when we're there. My in-laws were excited when they visited Pandora, and I don't think they even got to ride FoP. In terms of immersion, Pandora does not match the Wizarding World, while I expect GE to surpass it. I also think a Pandora land in the international parks will be huge - it sold lots of tickets internationally. I agree that the new guest draw by Pandora was small, but overseas that can be different.

The way WDW does tickets, Galaxy's Edge will help attendance of all parks. Tickets get cheaper per-day the longer they ticket. Maybe you'll have people do 2 days at DHS - pretty good for a half-day park. Do people add a day to get that in? Do they shift to hoppers? I think DHS would have declined more w/o Pandora, as it did lose a lot of what it had in 2015. What will really help Epcot is the opening of the new attractions in 2021.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amusement_park_rankings

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I’m actually surprised that Epcot had growth, unless it somehow got a push from Frozen?

Or the perpetual festivals? When did the last one kick in?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

With record high airline travel and Florida set to hit a record high in visitors this year, for WDW's numbers to be cratering this fall has too throw up a red flag or two to Disney.

I blame F&W Fest, ie "Drunkytown!"

 

[wdisney9000]

Which makes these cuts potentially counter productive since a very possible cause of this downward trend is the diminished guest experience. Negativity impacting it further is not a viable solution.

Completely agree. And considering that more cuts are on the way, they apparently refuse to at least consider that their very own actions possibly caused this in the first place. I have no doubt their solution will be an attempt to raise per guest capita. They continue to convince themselves that the actual theme park experience is enhanced when the guest spends more money.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Which makes these cuts potentially counter productive since a very possible cause of this downward trend is the diminished guest experience. Negatively impacting it further is not a viable solution.

Completely agree. And considering that more cuts are on the way, they apparently refuse to at least consider that their very own actions possibly caused this in the first place. I have no doubt their solution will be an attempt to raise per guest capita. They continue to convince themselves that the actual theme park experience is enhanced when the guest spends more money.

Agreed — I think this is a really good point.

I think I’ve written 2 letters to WDC in my life. One was after they cut Aug hours in 2017 — I was CRAN-KY and let them know in surveys and letters how it impacted our experience. The hours were back up Aug 2018, so perhaps others complained and they heard.

Sounds like they also overreacted with cuts last Jan-Feb. I’m hoping they don’t repeat that — despite how freaked out they may be about current attendance. It would just exacerbate the problem if this is even partially to do with decreased guest satisfaction.

However: how much do the announced cuts actually impact guest satisfaction — understanding that there may be more to come? When you cut hours significantly that hits everyone. I don’t think this will be true at all with cuts to shamans, streetmosphere, Rafiki. What else is there?

 

[marni1971]

Sounds like they also overreacted with cuts last Jan-Feb. I’m hoping they don’t repeat that — despite how freaked out they may be about current attendance..

Absolutely.

What else is there?

Reduced selective operating hours. Reduced staffing levels. Deferred maintenance.

As you said, one hopes these decisions can be reversed as quickly as they’re being implemented.

 

[zengoth]

F&W seemed pretty packed to me yesterday despite the over-the-top temp. My personal measurement is: if i can find a trashcan to stand and eat the $8 hors d'ouevre then there's still room for more people. (and i did eat at trashcans all day

, as all standing tables were always occupied)

 

[John park hopper]

Disney reminds me of the drug addict the more they use the more they want. Disney's drug is profits the more they make the more they want. Cutting park hours, CM and actors based on an attendance dip --- how much does that improve their their bottom line when compared to the billions in profit--- I would guess not much. does it affect guest satisfaction I would guess yes and guest satisfaction is what their business is all about.

 

[peter11435]

However: how much do the announced cuts actually impact guest satisfaction — understanding that there may be more to come? When you cut hours significantly that hits everyone. I don’t think this will be true at all with cuts to shamans, streetmosphere, Rafiki. What else is there?

It will negatively impact all guests experience even if they don’t recognize exactly why.

The majority of guests don’t visit RPW but all guests will feel the rest of the park being busier as capacity is cut.

The Disney experience is a collection of thousands of small details. Like a woven fabric if you start to cut threads the whole thing will quickly unravel.

 

[wdisney9000]

Reduced selective operating hours. Reduced staffing levels. Deferred maintenance.

Perhaps they could offer a hard ticket event where the guests can pay to be the CM's and operate the attractions for other guests and also perform various custodial work. They could also use the CM apartments as a "boutique resort" and charge people to stay there.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

With record high airline travel and Florida set to hit a record high in visitors this year, for WDW's numbers to be cratering this fall has too throw up a red flag or two to Disney.

I blame F&W Fest, ie "Drunkytown!"

I think F&W is still a draw. I think it's unpleasant (for me) because of the heat this time of year, but I'm guessing the issues affecting attendance drill deeper than the popularity of a single event or a single Park.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I think F&W is still a draw. I think it's unpleasant (for me) because of the heat this time of year, but I'm guessing the issues affecting attendance drill deeper than the popularity of a single event or a single Park.

I think it is a plethora of reasons like people being overwhelmed with all the planning required before the vacation, then the regimented "every second planned out" exhausting and frustrating nature of the vacation, the crowds, the price, and the frat party known as F&W.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

Disney reminds me of the drug addict the more they use the more they want. Disney's drug is profits the more they make the more they want. Cutting park hours, CM and actors based on an attendance dip --- how much does that improve their their bottom line when compared to the billions in profit--- I would guess not much. does it affect guest satisfaction I would guess yes and guest satisfaction is what their business is all about.

It's one of the things that has really driven me away over the past few years. Disney for a long time had for the most part resisted the "pay way more, get way less" mantra that is one of the hallmarks of the hyper-financialization era (yknow, terrible customer service/diminished experience, ever-increasing prices, barebones staffing, exorbitant exec compensation), but the last couple of years in particular have made it clear that they are moving ever closer to that way of doing business. It was inevitable I suppose. The amazing thing is how many people these companies have convinced that these are all good things.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

It will negatively impact all guests experience even if they don’t recognize exactly why.

The majority of guests don’t visit RPW but all guests will feel the rest of the park being busier as capacity is cut.

The Disney experience is a collection of thousands of small details. Like a woven fabric if you start to cut threads the whole thing will quickly unravel.

I totally agree on this! I think it’s a matter of degree and how much each incremental change impacts guest experience.

I’d argue...
- shaman cut: zero impact
- streetmosphere cuts (not eliminated): barely charts outside hardcore fans
- Rafiki: I don’t think that took enough people out of the rest of the park at any one time for the majority to even notice
- reduced hours, deferred maintenance and staffing cuts (if outside of performers): can be felt more widely depending on how deep, how prolonged, etc. These are the things I really hope can be pulled back more quickly than times in the past.

 

[monothingie]

I think it is a plethora of reasons like people being overwhelmed with all the planning required before the vacation, then the regimented "every second planned out" exhausting and frustrating nature of the vacation, the crowds, the price, and the frat party known as F&W.

You’re not supposed to enjoy your vacation. How selfish of you.

 

[Clamman73]

If I didn't have such an innate wanting to go because of the years of going as a kid in the 70s/80s...I don't think I would want to visit as much nowadays if I was a recently past 10 yrs new visitor....the planning itself can be exhausting and then have to deal with some of these increased crowds in non-summer times...not fun...and that's not even getting into the prices of everything.

 

[RustySpork]

You’re not supposed to enjoy your vacation. How selfish of you.

Announcing the "Vacation Enjoyment" option now available for your 2019 Disney vacation package*.

* Starting at $499 per person per day. Does not guarantee happiness. Does not include additional fast passes or experiences. Parties and additional events not included. See cast member at the back of the Magic Kingdom park behind the hidden entrance for your free cupcake. One cupcake per person per vacation.