News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[monothingie]

Adding to my comments from earlier re: SWGE and whether it will increase net income... when we widen beyond that narrow statement, there’s actually a lot that I agree with on here and have mentioned elsewhere for some time.

See except net income didn’t rise from higher attendance, it came from higher per guest spending. Upcharge parties, festivals, higher priced food, merchandise, etc. Remember number of visitors doesn’t necessarily translate into number of tickets sold.

 

[jt04]

Sea levels always drop before a Tsunami. The wave lasts late 2019 through 2022 at least.

 

[MisterPenguin]

And here's the percent change numbers for just 2016 to 2017...

So, while MK and DHS remained virtually the same, it was Epcot that saw a significant uptick from the DAK growth.

While it's certainly possible that this year (calendar 2018) is going to be bad for Epcot, the narrative that it's been backsliding for a while isn't the case. Epcot has seen marginal growth every year for the past decade (with 2018 being an unknown at this point) except for a tiny backslide in 2010 (following the Great Recession).

And yes, TEA doesn't have exact numbers, but they use the same metrics every year, so, a year-to-year change is likely to be noted mostly accurately.

 

[MisterPenguin]

See except net income didn’t rise from higher attendance, it came from higher per guest spending. Upcharge parties, festivals, higher priced food, merchandise, etc. Remember number of visitors doesn’t necessarily translate into number of tickets sold.

That's what Iger said for 2016 when attendance was down. He credited increased profit in 2017 to higher yields *and* increased attendance.

 

[monothingie]

That's what Iger said for 2016 when attendance was down. He credited increased profit in 2017 to higher yields *and* increased attendance.

Inthought that was in reference to P&R as a whole not just WDW.

 

[monothingie]

Sea levels always drop before a Tsunami. The wave lasts late 2019 through 2022 at least.

It’s nice to see your blissful optimism back here.

 

[jt04]

It’s nice to see your blissful optimism back here.

SWL, Ratatouille, GotG, Tron, New Illuminations, and 50th anniversary. Oh yeah.

And thanks, good to be back.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

See except net income didn’t rise from higher attendance, it came from higher per guest spending. Upcharge parties, festivals, higher priced food, merchandise, etc. Remember number of visitors doesn’t necessarily translate into number of tickets sold.

Of course. And it’s not a straight ahead slam dunk rosy picture. But in 2017 WDC does cite attendance as a partial factor:

“Lower results at Walt Disney World Resort were driven by higher costs and fewer occupied room nights, partially offset by growth in guest spending and attendance, although both were negatively impacted by Hurricane Irma. Higher costs were primarily due to increases in labor and employee benefits, depreciation and marketing. Guest spending growth was due to increased food and beverage spending and higher average daily hotel room rates. Available hotel room nights were lower due to refurbishments and conversions to vacation club units.”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sea levels always drop before a Tsunami. The wave lasts late 2019 through 2022 at least.

Thanks, confisicous...

I got one:
Recession is the breaker of the holy tsunami of money

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Inthought that was in reference to P&R as a whole not just WDW.

2016 was the boom year for Disneyland...

When bob talks about “parks”...it means Anaheim and Orlando...and as of 2017 includes Paris

 

[marni1971]

I can only base my opinion on your past posts on this thread. Your free to your thoughts about the current conditions of the parks and whether or not they are going to be able to sustain continued price increases. But the basis of my point is people on this thread are acting like Disney can't have a slow year and that the park needs to be full every single day for it to be a success. Slowdowns are very worthy of discussions but sometimes posters can be a little outlandish with their assumptions.

It is a slower than usual period, and attendance is well below projected figures. This is expected to continue at least short term. Hence the cuts that began around a month ago, those announced this week, and those yet to come.

..people on this thread are acting like Disney can't have a slow year and that the park needs to be full every single day for it to be a success.

These decisions aren’t being taken by people on these forums.

 

[RustySpork]

Sea levels always drop before a Tsunami. The wave lasts late 2019 through 2022 at least.

A tsunami of angry visitors at the gates who can't get in, to @MisterPenguin's point. There is only so much capacity, and HS is a really small park.

Purely conjecture, however what we may be seeing is an outcome of guest satisfaction. The crowds and wait times over the last few years may have driven recurring guests to other destinations and word of mouth is a powerful marketing tool.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Purely conjecture, however what we may be seeing is an outcome of guest satisfaction. The crowds and wait times over the last few years may have driven recurring guests to other destinations and word of mouth is a powerful marketing tool.

Or this is a blip. Or we’re seeing people wait now that so many things are coming on line within the next couple of years — not just SWGE. Or... something else. Or more likely a combination of factors. WAY too soon to tell if this will be a lasting problem.

Pure conjecture is a perfect way to describe all of this — but it’s a discussion board, so that’s all good!

 

[marni1971]

Or this is a blip. Or we’re seeing people wait now that so many things are coming on line within the next couple of years — not just SWGE. Or... something else. Or more likely a combination of factors. WAY too soon to tell if this will be a lasting problem.

Pure conjecture is a perfect way to describe all of this — but it’s a discussion board, so that’s all good!

Allow me to reiterate these cuts - and those yet to come - are being taken by the company due to their concerns. Not by a discussion board. Will they be gone in six to nine months? We’ll see. But there is concern within.

The guest concerns posted by Rusty are indeed a real thing.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Allow me to reiterate these cuts - and those yet to come - are being taken by the company due to their concerns. Not by a discussion board. Will they be gone in six to nine months? We’ll see. But there is concern within.

The guest concerns posted by Rusty are indeed a real thing.

I’ll take fully at face value that there are concerns within WDC re current attendance and near future. Still doesn’t preclude this from potentially being temporary, and not a sign that the sky is falling.

They’ve overreacted before and cut back too much. Time will tell.

 

[wdisney9000]

I’ll take fully at face value that there are concerns within WDC re current attendance and near future. Still doesn’t preclude this from potentially being temporary, and not a sign that the sky is falling.

Attendance levels in general are always a concern. This current drop in attendance seems to be unique and perhaps their concern is not so much about when it will correct itself, but how it happened in the first place.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It is a slower than usual period, and attendance is well below projected figures. This is expected to continue at least short term. Hence the cuts that began around a month ago, those announced this week, and those yet to come.


These decisions aren’t being taken by people on these forums.

Yep...yepper....yeppest

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’ll take fully at face value that there are concerns within WDC re current attendance and near future. Still doesn’t preclude this from potentially being temporary, and not a sign that the sky is falling.

They’ve overreacted before and cut back too much. Time will tell.

You have a particular talent of “acknowledging” a thing and completely refusing to consider it in the same sentence/post.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Attendance levels in general are always a concern. This current drop in attendance seems to be unique and perhaps their concern is not so much about when it will correct itself, but how it happened in the first place.

What’s different is that Orlando is in a “boom”...that hasn’t and shouldn’t happen. Ever.

Two possibilities:
1. Disney has a problem with pice and/or appeal
2. The “boom” is complete crap for disneys clientele.

I vote option 3

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Attendance levels in general are always a concern. This current drop in attendance seems to be unique and perhaps their concern is not so much about when it will correct itself, but how it happened in the first place.

Makes sense for there to be concern if they're significantly off their target and caught off guard by it. Like I said in the part of my post that you didn't quote: "They’ve overreacted before and cut back too much. Time will tell." We'll see if it's a harbinger of things to come or not. Execs obviously don't always get it right... as is a common refrain on such boards.