News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[MuteSuperstar]

My prediction is DHS full all year round in 2020.

We shall see....I think it will probably be a mob scene too regardless of the clear downturn in interest in Star Wars movies, which has led to them scaling back production. That has to worry them just a little bit, especially with regard to the high priced hotel. But still....remains to be seen if a slight wane in interest will translate to the park(s). I'm betting not enough to matter.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Look I know how you feel about the soft crowds and overall your general feelings toward Disney so I don't want to sugarcoat anything. Just because Disney experiences a month or two of slow crowds does not mean it's indicative of the future. People say this is typically a slow month so I wouldn't even be drawing conclusions from attendance at all based on this time period. We will see in a month or so when the typical holiday crowds come if the number of people is lower than usual which it may or may not be.

I’m not...nor haven’t...making a case for sustained slow downs...just saying I believe the premise of This thread to be true.

I am wondering about 2019...but that’s a different argument.

Don’t go in with Minnie...I’m not predicting “the downfall of WDW”...

But i’m Not fool enough to not recognize “issues” with management, pricing and attendance.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My prediction is DHS full all year round in 2020.

That is their assumption.

And if there isn’t an economic event and they build the land well...I would agree with the prediction.

 

[monothingie]

My prediction is DHS full all year round in 2020.

I’m sure it will be quite crowded. But does this translate into the other parks being crowded as well? I’m not so sure.

 

[monothingie]

I have been in 2007, 2008, 2014, 2017, 2018 all in Labor Day week for 10 days, we did 7 this year, and I can promise you, it was 2007, 2008.. level slow. I know what I am comparing to, we are very familiar with this time of year. It was flat out, amazing slow. May not continue, but it was solid slow, except for the last weekend, and only crowded at MK and Epcot. Weekend only (Food & Wine) Wait Times were exaggerated. Take that with a grain of salt, but it was slower than it has been in a long time.
Edit to add, going back for a short trip to see the lights, in late November, a 9 day trip in early May. To beat Star Wars crowds. Nothing, and I repeat, nothing will make me go when Star Wars Land opens. I will take a break to let it die down. I really don’t think I am the only person, that will do that.

We need to take for our once every 5 year break DVC points to replenish for our annual trip. 2020 may be the year for that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m sure it will be quite crowded. But does this translate into the other parks being crowded as well? I’m not so sure.

Indeed.

Mgm being maxed out is one thing...but that doesn’t mean a smashing windfall for wdw.

If Epcot and dak decline or stay flat...they will be having shouting conference calls between Burbank and Orlando

 

[monothingie]

Indeed.

Mgm being maxed out is one thing...but that doesn’t mean a smashing windfall for wdw.

If Epcot and dak decline or stay flat...they will be having shouting conference calls between Burbank and Orlando

Well look at Pandora. Yes it increased guest visits going to AK but did it have a cumulative impact with the rest of the gates? I’m sure someone here can answer that question.

 

[eddie104]

I’m not...nor haven’t...making a case for sustained slow downs...just saying I believe the premise of This thread to be true.

I am wondering about 2019...but that’s a different argument.

Don’t go in with Minnie...I’m not predicting “the downfall of WDW”...

But i’m Not fool enough to not recognize “issues” with management, pricing and attendance.

I can only base my opinion on your past posts on this thread. Your free to your thoughts about the current conditions of the parks and whether or not they are going to be able to sustain continued price increases. But the basis of my point is people on this thread are acting like Disney can't have a slow year and that the park needs to be full every single day for it to be a success. Slowdowns are very worthy of discussions but sometimes posters can be a little outlandish with their assumptions.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

I can only base my opinion on your past posts on this thread. Your free to your thoughts about the current conditions of the parks and whether or not they are going to be able to sustain continued price increases. But the basis of my point is people on this thread are acting like Disney can't have a slow year and that the park needs to be full every single day for it to be a success.

Seems to me it's management with the panicky mentality....a little softness and suddenly Rafiki closing, live entertainment cuts all over the place, other little things cancelled. Maybe these things were planned before this little downturn (which I'm honestly a bit skeptical of), but that doesn't make it any better.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I’m sure it will be quite crowded. But does this translate into the other parks being crowded as well? I’m not so sure.

That is the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Literally. WDW may be handing out sixty-four thousand dollar's worth of tickets and hoppers to angry guests who couldn't get into DHS on a daily basis.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can only base my opinion on your past posts on this thread. Your free to your thoughts about the current conditions of the parks and whether or not they are going to be able to sustain continued price increases. But the basis of my point is people on this thread are acting like Disney can't have a slow year and that the park needs to be full every single day for it to be a success. Slowdowns are very worth discussions but sometimes posters can be a little outlandish with their assumptions.

They certainly can...and have...had slow years. Recessions do that...

Most forget...or never knew...that 2001 PRIOR to September was a major slowdown year. There were a couple of main reasons fished out with that. The key being people delayed their pullback from travel due to the tech crash for a couple of years and committed to the millennium promotion. Resorts had 100% occupancy most of that year. Down rooms every night.

But it doesn’t matter if you or I think it’s ok. What matters is what will the management do to “respond” if it is slow? It’s not likely to be consumer friendly. The priorities/goals of parks have changed a lot since that time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Seems to me it's management with the panicky mentality....a little softness and suddenly Rafiki closing, live entertainment cuts all over the place, other little things cancelled. Maybe these things were planned before this little downturn (which I'm honestly a bit skeptical of), but that doesn't make it any better.

Bingo

 

[monothingie]

That is the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Literally. WDW may be handing out sixty-four thousand dollar's worth of tickets and hoppers to angry guests who couldn't get into DHS on a daily basis.

DHS is unique in that it’s so small compared to the others. I think capacity closures will happens initially and then only during peak times like holidays and spring break. Even then I think by mid 2020 it will stabilize as Pandora has started to do.

 

[monothingie]

I can only base my opinion on your past posts on this thread. Your free to your thoughts about the current conditions of the parks and whether or not they are going to be able to sustain continued price increases. But the basis of my point is people on this thread are acting like Disney can't have a slow year and that the park needs to be full every single day for it to be a success. Slowdowns are very worth discussions but sometimes posters can be a little outlandish with their assumptions.

Slowdowns shouldn’t happen in good economies with record people taking vacations and traveling.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Slowdowns shouldn’t happen in good economies with record people taking vacations and traveling.

...it’s never happened in WDW history...

“Nothing to see here”

 

[eddie104]

Seems to me it's management with the panicky mentality....a little softness and suddenly Rafiki closing, live entertainment cuts all over the place, other little things cancelled. Maybe these things were planned before this little downturn (which I'm honestly a bit skeptical of), but that doesn't make it any better.

Yeah your right about management response to this "slowdown". I'm hoping some of these cuts were just planned anyway like the live actors from the Rivers of Light show since according to someone here Disney didn't really like it to begin with.

 

[LSLS]

The attendance increase at AK was 1.7 million for a half year of pandora. Say it ends up at 2mil/year total. That’s roughly $200M additional revenue. Significant.

Where it multiplies is in increased crowds allowing/justifying overall price increases. Say it drives a few percent increase. .03x60Mx$100=$180M. Say it lets them charge more for their hotels...$380M is a 10% shift in overall tota P&R profits.

Whatever they’ve done, profits are up for the P&R segment 20%. Almost enough to make up for the decline in profits from Media Networks (ESPN).

I think the attendance changes through 2016 & 2017 were noticeable and changes in 2018-2020 will be as well. I think revenue and profit shifts will be noticeable as well.

So you need to factor two things into this. First, what was the growth rate at dak before pandora. Second, how did the other parks rates change. If you see a slight increase in Dak and slight decrease at epcot, you profit increase is much less substantial. Honestly I have no clue, but it's not as simple as an increase at 1 park when talking about all of disney world. Just another thing to factor on top of capcitites.

 

[monothingie]

So you need to factor two things into this. First, what was the growth rate at dak before pandora. Second, how did the other parks rates change. If you see a slight increase in Dak and slight decrease at epcot, you profit increase is much less substantial. Honestly I have no clue, but it's not as simple as an increase at 1 park when talking about all of disney world. Just another thing to factor on top of capcitites.

So in the Sentinal article which references the TEA numbers showed net WDW saw a 7% increase in 2017 vs 2016. Lead by AK but MK saw only 1 percent increase and DHS saw a decrease. So yes it looks like Pandora was a destination attraction which didn’t help the other parks. Wildcard factors include the economy and weathers. But the takeaway is that SWGE will definitely boost DHS but probably won’t affect the other parks.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Adding to my comments from earlier re: SWGE and whether it will increase net income... when we widen beyond that narrow statement, there’s actually a lot that I agree with on here and have mentioned elsewhere for some time.

Bad:

• I think overcrowding will be a real problem. The land and park will have difficulty absorbing the mobs — most certainly initially and maybe for some time.
• I thought it was a mistake that they didn’t go bigger with the land — seems it would easily support a third attraction off the bat.
• Glad they are adding the gondola and revamping bus area and entrance, but I still can’t imagine how crazy it will be once everyone is in the park.
• Some capacity closures show massive demand — but too much could make other people avoid going, visitors share bad word of mouth upon return, etc.

Good:

• Even with all of this, I still think there will be a measurable positive impact to Parks bottom line in early years.
• I still think WDC is one of the few companies that actually benefits from synergy, and that this will also translate to the bottom line of other SBUs.
• Later years will depend on so much, including how the whole franchise is managed (particularly films); though I’d be really surprised if there isn’t a lasting draw for this incredible franchise — no matter how many people are loud and cranky about TLJ.
• I think that SWGE is likely to draw some visitors who have not been into Parks before now — at least once. A certain percentage will get hooked into return trips — customer acquisition. I doubt this effect was measurable with Pandora, so I’d expect greater things on this front — not that we’ll ever have hard data to prove this either way.
• I’d suspect this could increase attendance in other parks some — perhaps AK esp. with FoP and Pandora still being new-ish. This was not observed with Pandora 2016-2017, but we don’t even have one full year of data on that yet. Here, I think we have people putting off trips until after SWGE opens, and presumably they will go to more than just DHS.

I’m sure I’m leaving out a ton of thoughts. But it strikes me that this is more than enough for one post and one night.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

So you need to factor two things into this. First, what was the growth rate at dak before pandora. Second, how did the other parks rates change. If you see a slight increase in Dak and slight decrease at epcot, you profit increase is much less substantial. Honestly I have no clue, but it's not as simple as an increase at 1 park when talking about all of disney world. Just another thing to factor on top of capcitites.

So in the Sentinal article which references the TEA numbers showed net WDW saw a 7% increase in 2017 vs 2016. Lead by AK but MK saw only 1 percent increase and DHS saw a decrease. So yes it looks like Pandora was a destination attraction which didn’t help the other parks. Wildcard factors include the economy and weathers. But the takeaway is that SWGE will definitely boost DHS but probably won’t affect the other parks.

I posted these in another thread — threw them together quickly with attendance data.