News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[MickeyMinnieMom]

How so?

It's like the Harry Potter store at Kings Cross. It is so popular there is a line to get into the store to spend money. This means potential profit simply walks past the store. If store was larger and without a line, more profit could be had.

The PP’s initial statement was simple. Now it’s morphed into something else that anyone would agree with. Read back.

 

[RustySpork]

Statistically insignificant? Disagree. That’s FAR too strong.

Limited in ways it wouldn’t be if the land and park were larger? Yes.

You're using the wrong math.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

You're using the wrong math.

You agree with this below?

SWGE won’t bring in that much more profit than any other year.

We’ll be able to test this and get at least some insight (though not specific data) in a couple of years. I’m patient.

 

[Nubs70]

The PP’s initial statement was simple. Now it’s morphed into something else that anyone would agree with. Read back.

The explanatory posts are entirely consistent with the original post.

 

[marni1971]

That’s quite the interpretative gymnastics of a very simple (I think wrong) prediction on your part:

Whatever. I’m not doing this today. Find someone else to attempt to discredit.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Whatever. I’m not doing this today. Find someone else to attempt to discredit.

The exact response I expected!

 

[RustySpork]

You agree with this below?

We’ll be able to test this and get at least some insight (though not specific data) in a couple of years. I’m patient.

Yes, because it makes complete and total sense.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

The explanatory posts are entirely consistent with the original post.

Consistent with. Different than this prediction:

SWGE won’t bring in that much more profit than any other year.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Yes, because it makes complete and total sense.

Ok. We’ll see! As I said, I’m patient.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Prick. My step dad just died.

I’m so sorry for your loss. Obviously there was no way for me to know that.

 

[marni1971]

I’m so sorry for your loss. Obviously there was no way for me to know that.

Thank you.

So you’ll appreciate if I don’t get into an
Involved debate. I may say something
I’ll regret.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Thank you.

So you’ll appreciate if I don’t get into an
Involved debate. I may say sometime I’ll regret.

100% — my condolences again. I’m totally dropping it now.

 

[RustySpork]

Ok. We’ll see! As I said, I’m patient.

As fast as you are refreshing the page and responding, I don't believe you're nearly as patient as you think you are.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

As fast as you are refreshing the page and responding, I don't believe you're nearly as patient as you think you are.

To see if one can prove a testable hypothesis I have all the patience in the world... just some downtime now as I wait for my sister to arrive so I can go run 8mi in preparation for W&D.

 

[teddisney]

The "Walt Disney World Ticket" category is a summary of the percent change for all types of tickets, including annual passes.

I have data for annual passes but did not graph it separately. Its long-term trend is similar to the overall "Walt Disney World Ticket" trend, although this can vary considerably year-to-year. In some years, AP holders see big increases. In other years, increases are modest. Disney rarely raises all ticket prices by the same percentage. However, long term-trends for multi-day tickets are similar.

Thanks! I probably read that in your thread originally, but it evacuated my memory shortly thereafter.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I didn’t comb through a ton of financials and analyze the heck out of this and don’t plan to (!!) — just looked up a few figures out of curiosity and am probably missing significant info as a result. That disclaimer out of the way...
ETA from Disney, FY17: “The increase at our domestic operations was due to higher guest spending for admissions to our theme parks and sailings on our cruise ships and higher attendance, partially offset by cost inflation and higher expenses for operations support and new guest offerings. Growth at our domestic operations was adversely impacted by Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Matthew in the current year.”

You’re going to see the same statement or very close for every single fiscal year. It’s pretty standard...as is an excuse such as a hurricane - valid or no.

I’m looking at it this way:
Mgm will hold a certain amount of people and that is far more predetermined than any other park...especially dak...which never came close to what they planned in attendance (the same as magic kingdom...don’t laugh).

Succinctly: dak has way more room to grow/fit bodies. And they aren’t really adding any more usuable space to mgm...more concrete but not a real net gain in attraction and floor space compared to prior the half deconstruction before the rebuild.

Second...they aren’t adding significant on property rooms...so no net gains in foottraffic. You can only put people on set quantities in rooms...and what they’ve got...the same general inventory since Saratoga in 2005...is about the same.

Third...people already go and spend on the crap. It’s gonna be largely the same crap. That’s their choice after decades of streamlining parks.
It also is a stark contrast to avatar...which had no prior park presence. I’ve been able to get Mickey jedi in magic kingdom for years if I want.

And here’s the other kicker...if they are mobbed, it could cause a decrease in revenues...as people drawn from the other parks could be drawn in and be standing around. Can’t shop if you’re in an unmoving line or can’t get to a register.


Star Wars land...unlike avatar...is really about promoting the brand outside of the parks more than a new revenue stream. I give disney and Cameron a lot of credit for that.

So they want you to reinforce Star Wars out in the retail world where it has a unique history.

So the IP needs to be strong...

...let’s not check the scoreboard there. Keep it on the rails.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Or, you know, having to drop an extra 20 billion for Fox might have a little something to do with it. The pay increase would be a rounding error compared to that.

And in the end...kinda bidding against themselves and a Comcast bluff to the Murdoch’s...

Who of course are not greedy at all

 

[winstongator]

Seems pretty straight forward to me. Capacity at HS is pretty small which means their ability to earn and profit from the park has a low ceiling. Any earnings from even a few thousand extra guests per day resort wide will probably be statistically insignificant.

The attendance increase at AK was 1.7 million for a half year of pandora. Say it ends up at 2mil/year total. That’s roughly $200M additional revenue. Significant.

Where it multiplies is in increased crowds allowing/justifying overall price increases. Say it drives a few percent increase. .03x60Mx$100=$180M. Say it lets them charge more for their hotels...$380M is a 10% shift in overall tota P&R profits.

Whatever they’ve done, profits are up for the P&R segment 20%. Almost enough to make up for the decline in profits from Media Networks (ESPN).

I think the attendance changes through 2016 & 2017 were noticeable and changes in 2018-2020 will be as well. I think revenue and profit shifts will be noticeable as well.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The attendance increase at AK was 1.7 million for a half year of pandora. Say it ends up at 2mil/year total. That’s roughly $200M additional revenue. Significant.

Where it multiplies is in increased crowds allowing/justifying overall price increases. Say it drives a few percent increase. .03x60Mx$100=$180M. Say it lets them charge more for their hotels...$380M is a 10% shift in overall tota P&R profits.

Whatever they’ve done, profits are up for the P&R segment 20%. Almost enough to make up for the decline in profits from Media Networks (ESPN).

I think the attendance changes through 2016 & 2017 were noticeable and changes in 2018-2020 will be as well. I think revenue and profit shifts will be noticeable as well.

You bypassed the crux of his point...

That studios only has so much physical space...and that limits “growth”
Nothing they are building now will ease that.

People tend to have no concept of how much smaller mgm is as compared to the other 3...

A lot of the distortion is that you have walk around some of the attractions and service buildings...where as the others are set up outside in...for the most part.

You can’t invent time and space.

I think Star Wars will be a bigger success in Anaheim just based on logistics...which is opposite my first impression.

 

[RustySpork]

The attendance increase at AK was 1.7 million for a half year of pandora. Say it ends up at 2mil/year total. That’s roughly $200M additional revenue. Significant.

Where it multiplies is in increased crowds allowing/justifying overall price increases. Say it drives a few percent increase. .03x60Mx$100=$180M. Say it lets them charge more for their hotels...$380M is a 10% shift in overall tota P&R profits.

Whatever they’ve done, profits are up for the P&R segment 20%. Almost enough to make up for the decline in profits from Media Networks (ESPN).

I think the attendance changes through 2016 & 2017 were noticeable and changes in 2018-2020 will be as well. I think revenue and profit shifts will be noticeable as well.

$200M in revenue is less than 1% of TWDC's annual gross profit ($24.8B) making it insignificant to their bottom line, as I stated. If you compare it to their gross revenue of $55.1B, well it becomes a fraction of that fraction.

Your projection is also best case scenario and is only possible if they can increase capacity to match AK which they cannot, as HS is a much smaller park (580 acres vs 135 acres).

I'm really looking forward to the addition, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be realistic.