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News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

krb201

Member
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Is TouringPlans generating population-level estimates by weighting responses to correct for differences between their sample and population? Or are they just publishing the raw results from their self-selected survey respondents?

Is TP calculating survey error at all?

Besides any more subtle sampling errors caused by self-selection, the big self-selection bias is respondents will tend to be people who have strong opinions about the matter being surveyed - so you'll tend to be surveying the people who either strongly liked or strongly disliked something while finding out little about the people in the middle.
This.
 

krb201

Member
I get what you’re saying. The self-selection bias is more than just capturing those who seek out the chance to fill out a survey or send them comments (vs random sampling within the TP “audience”), and thus are more likely to feel strongly one way or the other.

I think it’s also an issue of what group you’re potentially drawing from to begin with. I’d assume that those who would heavily research their theme park trip (buy a guide, use their site — maybe frequently, etc.) AND bother to fill out a survey would be different than the “average” guest in multiple ways. Too much so to drawn any really strong conclusions.

But perhaps close is enough in horseshoes and theme park discussions — not the biggest stakes for us here! :)
And this.

My point is that what TP does is totally fine for their purpose - to make money selling books/app subscriptions - because they are providing estimates, not guarantees. And, of course, the near real time data available from multiple sources to everyone while in a park is of greater value in real time.

If TDO or other WDW management units use the TP data for decision making, then that's a problem.
 

AJH219

Well-Known Member
August and September are the slowest months of the year..

Travel calendar has completely changed in the last 20 years
I have lived here for three years so my eyes reveal the truth, not some "calendars" Every year prior to now has seen Epcot packed on Fridays during Food and Wine. You can choose to believe me or not (but you'd be in denial). Attendance is DOWN
 

smile

Well-Known Member
Then they adjust. And readjust. As they have for decades quite successfully on the whole. Not perfectly -- which isn't possible -- but successfully.
a dance with ever-changing moves and for whom none are immune to tripping over their own feet
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
That is an outright lie. I have lived here for three years so my eyes reveal the truth, not some "calendars" Every year prior to now has seen Epcot packed on Fridays during Food and Wine. You can choose to believe me or not (but you'd be in denial). Attendance is DOWN
How many “years”??

September is actually much busier
Than it was in the past...but it used to be a ghost town and still is a soft month.

The traditionally “softer” months were January, May, September-December (with holiday exceptions)

Now go in October...or the first two weeks of December...or the first two of november...or most days in January.

Much higher than when travel was mostly tied to the traditional American school calendar.

And many reasons.

So again... ask yourself:
1. What do I really “know”?
2. What am I comparing it to?
 

AJH219

Well-Known Member
How many “years”??

September is actually much busier
Than it was in the past...but it used to be a ghost town and still is a soft month.

The traditionally “softer” months were January, May, September-December (with holiday exceptions)

Now go in October...or the first two weeks of December...or the first two of november...or most days in January.

Much higher than when travel was mostly tied to the traditional American school calendar.

And many reasons.

So again... ask yourself:
1. What do I really “know”?
2. What am I comparing it to?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure what you're arguing against. I'm providing FACTS to support the claim the parks are slow this fall. What part of hat aren't you getting through your skull??
You said locals show up for food and wine?...breaking news.

Do me a favor...ask around and see what perceptions are of peak versus “off peak” travel in Orlando?

You might be delightfully enlightened.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
TL:DR - no one is comparing to 10-20 years ago... people are comparing to the last few years.
My anecdote wasn’t about the last 2 years or so...what it was doing was putting it in through context of the larger picture...travel has changed and to make any stance you have to at least consider the historical context.

So we know bookings are soft this year...that’s become an unofficial “consensus”...
But where you need to expand the scope is why? Again: when has there ever been soft bookings during a bull market? Take your time.

Look for the truth behind the daily trip reports. It’s not because everyone is waiting for “galaxys edge”
 

TheDuke

Well-Known Member
I went to MK last week and Space Mountain peaked at 35 minutes. The only long lines were Peter Pan and Mine Train, but I even managed to get a half hour wait on Peter Pan at 5ish. Haven't been in this time of year for a while but I was surprised.
 

scorp16

Well-Known Member
So we know bookings are soft this year...that’s become an unofficial “consensus”...

No they are not. Bookings are at record breaking numbers. The parks are so crowded you can't even move. Housekeeping can't even attend to the rooms. It's chaotic, it's a circus, somebody is going to get hurt at these levels........I recommend anybody that has a reservation between September 27th and October 1 - You should cancel...NOW. It's not worth it. And I'd advise any locals who are thinking of going during that time frame to hit Universal instead.

Edited to say - Don't hit Universal. Hit SeaWorld. No crowds.
 
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JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
No they are not. Bookings are at record breaking numbers. The parks are so crowded you can't even move. Housekeeping can't even attend to the rooms. It's chaotic, it's a circus, somebody is going to get hurt at these levels........I recommend anybody that has a reservation between September 27th and October 1 - You should cancel...NOW. It's not worth it. I'd advise any locals who are thinking of going during that time frame to hit Universal instead.
So your travel dates are???
 
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