News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[krb201]

I get what you’re saying. The self-selection bias is more than just capturing those who seek out the chance to fill out a survey or send them comments (vs random sampling within the TP “audience”), and thus are more likely to feel strongly one way or the other.

I think it’s also an issue of what group you’re potentially drawing from to begin with. I’d assume that those who would heavily research their theme park trip (buy a guide, use their site — maybe frequently, etc.) AND bother to fill out a survey would be different than the “average” guest in multiple ways. Too much so to drawn any really strong conclusions.

But perhaps close is enough in horseshoes and theme park discussions — not the biggest stakes for us here!

And this.

My point is that what TP does is totally fine for their purpose - to make money selling books/app subscriptions - because they are providing estimates, not guarantees. And, of course, the near real time data available from multiple sources to everyone while in a park is of greater value in real time.

If TDO or other WDW management units use the TP data for decision making, then that's a problem.

 

[smile]

If TDO or other WDW management units use the TP data for decision making, then that's a problem.

wouldn't worry about that -
besides, it's certain that even decisions made with scores of accurate data few even realize is collected can still be bungled.

what then?

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

If TDO or other WDW management units use the TP data for decision making, then that's a problem.

I cannot fathom that they do -- it's just the best that the rest of us have to go on, besides the snippets we get in investor calls and the like.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

wouldn't worry about that -
besides, it's certain that even decisions made with scores of accurate data few even realize is collected can still be bungled.

what then?

Then they adjust. And readjust. As they have for decades quite successfully on the whole. Not perfectly -- which isn't possible -- but successfully.

 

[smile]

Then they adjust. And readjust. As they have for decades quite successfully on the whole. Not perfectly -- which isn't possible -- but successfully.

a dance with ever-changing moves and for whom none are immune to tripping over their own feet

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

a dance with ever-changing moves and for whom none are immune to tripping over their own feet

Yes. But some are better dancers than others, and are less likely to fall... or to get hurt too badly when they do.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That is an outright lie. I have lived here for three years so my eyes reveal the truth, not some "calendars" Every year prior to now has seen Epcot packed on Fridays during Food and Wine. You can choose to believe me or not (but you'd be in denial). Attendance is DOWN

How many “years”??

September is actually much busier
Than it was in the past...but it used to be a ghost town and still is a soft month.

The traditionally “softer” months were January, May, September-December (with holiday exceptions)

Now go in October...or the first two weeks of December...or the first two of november...or most days in January.

Much higher than when travel was mostly tied to the traditional American school calendar.

And many reasons.

So again... ask yourself:
1. What do I really “know”?
2. What am I comparing it to?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You really are grumpy. And you sound familiar... I'll leave it at that.

Not “grumpy” at all...rather devoid of emotion...actually.

Things are what they are.

 

[flynnibus]

TLR - no one is comparing to 10-20 years ago... people are comparing to the last few years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not sure what you're arguing against. I'm providing FACTS to support the claim the parks are slow this fall. What part of hat aren't you getting through your skull??

You said locals show up for food and wine?...breaking news.

Do me a favor...ask around and see what perceptions are of peak versus “off peak” travel in Orlando?

You might be delightfully enlightened.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

TLR - no one is comparing to 10-20 years ago... people are comparing to the last few years.

My anecdote wasn’t about the last 2 years or so...what it was doing was putting it in through context of the larger picture...travel has changed and to make any stance you have to at least consider the historical context.

So we know bookings are soft this year...that’s become an unofficial “consensus”...
But where you need to expand the scope is why? Again: when has there ever been soft bookings during a bull market? Take your time.

Look for the truth behind the daily trip reports. It’s not because everyone is waiting for “galaxys edge”

 

[TheDuke]

I went to MK last week and Space Mountain peaked at 35 minutes. The only long lines were Peter Pan and Mine Train, but I even managed to get a half hour wait on Peter Pan at 5ish. Haven't been in this time of year for a while but I was surprised.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

So we know bookings are soft this year...that’s become an unofficial “consensus”...

No they are not. Bookings are at record breaking numbers. The parks are so crowded you can't even move. Housekeeping can't even attend to the rooms. It's chaotic, it's a circus, somebody is going to get hurt at these levels........I recommend anybody that has a reservation between September 27th and October 1 - You should cancel...NOW. It's not worth it. And I'd advise any locals who are thinking of going during that time frame to hit Universal instead.

Edited to say - Don't hit Universal. Hit SeaWorld. No crowds.

 

[JoeCamel]

I went to MK last week and Space Mountain peaked at 35 minutes. The only long lines were Peter Pan and Mine Train, but I even managed to get a half hour wait on Peter Pan at 5ish. Haven't been in this time of year for a while but I was surprised.

Well everyone is scared to ride space and Pecos Bill's runs that nacho cheese special at 5 sooo...

 

[JoeCamel]

No they are not. Bookings are at record breaking numbers. The parks are so crowded you can't even move. Housekeeping can't even attend to the rooms. It's chaotic, it's a circus, somebody is going to get hurt at these levels........I recommend anybody that has a reservation between September 27th and October 1 - You should cancel...NOW. It's not worth it. I'd advise any locals who are thinking of going during that time frame to hit Universal instead.

So your travel dates are???

 

[eddie104]

The "experts" in May predicted a more active hurricane season for 2018. In August they changed it to a less active season. The same experts said Florence would make landfall as a Cat 4, possibly a Cat 5 - it was a Cat 1 (still very powerful and dangerous, but nothing like was expected). Also note that hurricane forecasts include storms that form and never make landfall, and storms that never reach hurricane force. And, those hurricane predictions include the entire Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico - not just Florida. Think of it this way: The footprint of Florida is close to that of the UK. A hurricane strike in Miami would not affect Orlando. Just as a storm in Scotland would not affect London. Orlando is listed as the 2nd safest city in Florida in terms of hurricanes, according to homeinsurance dot com studies. You are more likely to experience a tornado in Orlando, than a hurricane. The most severe tornados can happen between February and April. But, June - September is the most active tornado season for Orlando, but with weaker tornados.

So, if you are really concerned about severe weather, best not to visit Orlando between February and November. If we planned vacations around severe weather seasons, we might as well stay home. Or... we can plan for the best, but buy travel insurance to protect the investment - just in case. Weather happens. Don't let fear of weather limit what you can experience.

I agree with this post completely.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s kinda hard to “predict” 6 months of tropical events...that’s one thing the weather really hasn’t improved upon

 

[wannabeBelle]

And in related news on another news site, it has been reported that several long time members of the Citizens of Hollywood are being cut as a cost savings measure. The last day for these people is at the end of the month to achieve fiscal 2019 cost reduction targets. Leaving by the end of the month will be the Dorma Nesmond, Paige Turner, Dara Vamp, and Officer Prime Brody characters. Several of these actors have been in these roles for many years and are among the most senior entertainers in all of Walt Disney World. It is not known if these characters will be replaced or recast. Marie

 

[MuteSuperstar]

I'm convinced Peter Pan would have a 30 minute wait in the middle of a nuclear war.

 

[Rteetz]

Just got word Rafiki's Planet Watch is going Seasonal.