News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[Lensman]

Small, sure. The trick is for the sample to be representative. I can't imagine that TP has that -- too much self-selection.

ETA: Just saw another poster said the same. While TP's sample might be better than most companies', I still doubt that you could accurately extrapolate.

Is TouringPlans generating population-level estimates by weighting responses to correct for differences between their sample and population? Or are they just publishing the raw results from their self-selected survey respondents?

Is TP calculating survey error at all?

Besides any more subtle sampling errors caused by self-selection, the big self-selection bias is respondents will tend to be people who have strong opinions about the matter being surveyed - so you'll tend to be surveying the people who either strongly liked or strongly disliked something while finding out little about the people in the middle.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

That’s all great.

But i wasn’t giving and Econ lesson from Forbes...

I’m saying that Disney park appeal was grounded in that they could cater to the entirety of the middle class.

It was never cheap enough for the lower nor will they ever pay to provide service to the upper.

They can build club 33s and increase the upsells and hotel charges.

But it is a house of cards...because the volume Not be there in the numbers needed.

They need 75,000,000 gate clicks in Orlando in the not so near future...good luck with that and a 4 hour wait for slinky dog

I don’t get the house of cards analogy at all. Nor the conclusion. I agree with @DisneyCane’s post re population growth and a theoretical tipping point. I think Disney would correct before crossing over it.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Can confirm it was absolutely dead when I was there the week before Labor Day weekend and even that weekend was quite slow for Labor Day.

By the way, it was great.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Is TouringPlans generating population-level estimates by weighting responses to correct for differences between their sample and population? Or are they just publishing the raw results from their self-selected survey respondents?

Is TP calculating survey error at all?

Besides any more subtle sampling errors caused by self-selection, the big self-selection bias is respondents will tend to be people who have strong opinions about the matter being surveyed - so you'll tend to be surveying the people who either strongly liked or strongly disliked something while finding out little about the people in the middle.

I get what you’re saying. The self-selection bias is more than just capturing those who seek out the chance to fill out a survey or send them comments (vs random sampling within the TP “audience”), and thus are more likely to feel strongly one way or the other.

I think it’s also an issue of what group you’re potentially drawing from to begin with. I’d assume that those who would heavily research their theme park trip (buy a guide, use their site — maybe frequently, etc.) AND bother to fill out a survey would be different than the “average” guest in multiple ways. Too much so to drawn any really strong conclusions.

But perhaps close is enough in horseshoes and theme park discussions — not the biggest stakes for us here!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don’t get the house of cards analogy at all. Nor the conclusion. I agree with @DisneyCane’s post re population growth and a theoretical tipping point. I think Disney would correct before crossing over it.

Iger is overextending pricing and making promises to shareholders he knows cannot be sustained...as he tries to just get to the door. Blue ocean.

First disney executive to ever have that attitude...it’s sad.

Or he’s a complete fool. Take your pick.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Can confirm it was absolutely dead when I was there the week before Labor Day weekend and even that weekend was quite slow for Labor Day.

By the way, it was great.

Same. Was there 27th through the 31st POR. I counted at least a dozen empty rooms in my bldg. Which when you factor the amount of rooms in Alligator Bayou that were down for renovation....yeah....it was nice.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Same. Was there 24th through the 28th POR. I counted at least a dozen empty rooms in my bldg. Which when you factor the amount of rooms in Alligator Bayou that were down for renovation....yeah....it was nice.

Might have to do with how overpriced those rooms are now...

I liked the lower foottraffic over Labor Day...it was good for me and my nonchalant...

But it didn’t hide how off the fastpass+ system is...still long backups and fluctuations in a very slow period...at times.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Might have to do with how overpriced those rooms are now...

I liked the lower foottraffic over Labor Day...it was good for me and my nonchalant...

But it didn’t hide how off the fastpass+ system is...still long backups and fluctuations in a very slow period...at times.

What I found a bit odd is that I booked those rooms a few months back....right when they released the discounts. Got a FL Res-Passholder rate at $199. The closer we got to the trip I expected the rate to rise. It didn't. The night before I left I checked again and it was still at the original rate I booked. When I checked in - I went through my upgrade process - and no hesitation - Garden View.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

What I found a bit odd is that I booked those rooms a few months back....right when they released the discounts. Got a FL Res-Passholder rate at $199. The closer we got to the trip I expected the rate to rise. It didn't. The night before I left I checked again and it was still at the original rate I booked. When I checked in - I went through my upgrade process - and no hesitation - Garden View.

Could the lower occupancy be, in part, by backlash from the "dog friendly" rooms?????
Just throwing it out there!
I personally know of several families who love dogs but don't want to vacation with them, and have booked at other resorts....who knows?

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Could the lower occupancy be, in part, by backlash from the "dog friendly" rooms?????
Just throwing it out there!
I personally know of several families who love dogs but don't want to vacation with them, and have booked at other resorts....who knows?

I think its a combination of things. Maybe the dog friendly rooms, but also the parking fees, maybe the time of year (but I usually go during that week and I don't remember it being as empty)

 

[larryz]

Iger is overextending pricing and making promises to shareholders he knows cannot be sustained...as he tries to just get to the door. Blue ocean.

First disney executive to ever have that attitude...it’s sad.

Or he’s a complete fool. Take your pick.

He started out as a weatherman. How often have they ever been right?

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

He started out as a weatherman. How often have they ever been right?

How can you screw that up? 50/50 chance and you're covered.

Usually when I catch the weather forecast while at Disney during the spring, summer and fall.....they always throw in "afternoon showers possible" I look back at the TV and think "Way to commit"

 

[larryz]

How can you screw that up? 50/50 chance and you're covered.

Usually when I catch the weather forecast while at Disney during the spring, summer and fall.....they always throw in "afternoon showers possible" I look back at the TV and think "Way to commit"

That's just how they roll.

 

[RustySpork]

He started out as a weatherman. How often have they ever been right?

Spoiler

 

[LudwigVonDrake]

I was in WDW the second week of August and I was surprised that the crowds were definitely manageable.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was in WDW the second week of August and I was surprised that the crowds were definitely manageable.

5 minutes before IllumiNations on a Friday during F & W and I was able to walk right up to the fence in Canada for the show. This park is deserted.

August and September are the slowest months of the year..

Travel calendar has completely changed in the last 20 years

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Iger is overextending pricing and making promises to shareholders he knows cannot be sustained...as he tries to just get to the door. Blue ocean.

First disney executive to ever have that attitude...it’s sad.

Or he’s a complete fool. Take your pick.

I understand now. An Iger rant with hand waving and unsubstantiated conclusions. I’m not into those. Off to other threads...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I understand now. An Iger rant with hand waving and unsubstantiated conclusions. I’m not into those. Off to other threads...

The perfect compliment to a blind defense with no context or understanding of the reality of the corporate situation...

Get your popcorn

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

The perfect compliment to a blind defense with no context or understanding of the reality of the corporate situation...

Get your popcorn

You really are grumpy. And you sound familiar... I'll leave it at that.

 

[krb201]

Is TouringPlans generating population-level estimates by weighting responses to correct for differences between their sample and population? Or are they just publishing the raw results from their self-selected survey respondents?

Is TP calculating survey error at all?

Besides any more subtle sampling errors caused by self-selection, the big self-selection bias is respondents will tend to be people who have strong opinions about the matter being surveyed - so you'll tend to be surveying the people who either strongly liked or strongly disliked something while finding out little about the people in the middle.

This.