No fastpasses available today?

[Ray B]

The last information publically available (from several months ago) was that Disney would offer FP+ to all guests but that MagicBands would be an upsell to offsite guests.

Disney has stated that onsite guests would be able to reserve their FP+ experiences at 60 days plus 10 days from the start of the stay. Disney has never publically stated how far in advance offsite guests would be able to reserve their FP+ experiences.

Disney's original plans involved forcing guests to pick from groups, requiring those testing the system to select some lesser attractions. After overwhelmingly negative feedback, Disney opened FP+ selection to any 3 attractions within one park. Assuming this remains in place, anyone in a position to make their FP+ selections early will have a significant advantage.

WDW's problem at 3 of its 4 theme parks is ride capacity. It simply doesn't have enough high-capacity E ticket attractions at Epcot, DHS, and DAK. Allowing guests to pick any 3 attractions at those parks means that there will be many WDW (presumably offsite) guests who will be shut out of headliner attractions.

FP+ has the potential to drive onsite occupancy rates back up to historic levels while simultaneously driving away vacationers not staying at WDW resorts.

With Universal publically announcing plans to become "a family destination in and of itself, not an add-on attraction for somebody who’s spent three or four days someplace else", IMHO, corporate Disney is playing with fire.

The initial plans to force guests to pick from groups had the potential to more evenly distribute FP+ selections, somewhat placating offsite guests, even if onsite guests had a booking advantage. If offsite guests have no reasonable chance of obtaining FP+ selections for attractions such as TSM, EE, and Soarin', WDW could experience an appreciable decline in attendance at 3 of its 4 theme parks. Only the Magic Kingdom has a sufficient number of popular attractions to keep most guests happy.

Again, corporate Disney is playing with fire and might get burned.

Thanks for the thorough explanation. DW, DD and I go to Disney every year staying at an offsite timeshare. I look past most problems at WDW because as long as my daughter is happy so am I. That said, if we were unable to get FP+ to any of the E-tickets it would spell then end of our yearly trips to see the mouse. I would have to think others like me would either stop going or sharply reduce the time spent at WDW.

 

[IWantMyMagicBand]

What's happening to the standby line for TSMM after 5pm? If they are not consistently long throughout the day and evening could it be that people are grabbing FP at park opening for, say 5.30, but kids get tired and they leave. It would be interesting to know how many unused FP there were by the end of the day. I have a few unused ones where we just decided to leave the park earlier (not from this year before I get shot down )

 

[lentesta]

What's happening to the standby line for TSMM after 5pm? ...

For Saturday, October 19 at TSMM:

115 minutes around 5:30 pm.
105 minutes around 6 pm.
90 minutes around 6:15 pm.
75 minutes around 6:30 pm.
60 minutes around 7 pm.
50 minutes around 7:30 pm.
30 minutes around 8 pm.​

It's interesting that the standby wait dropped by 30 minutes in the half-hour between 6 and 6:30 pm.

The other interesting thing happened during the first hour TSMM was open. Waits went from 0 to 110 in about an hour, and the people in line experienced actual waits about 10 minutes higher than posted waits from around 9:15 to 9:30 am, while the CMs apparently came up to speed on estimating the wait.

 

[xdan0920]

FP+ has the potential to drive onsite occupancy rates back up to historic levels while simultaneously driving away vacationers not staying at WDW resorts.

An interesting thought, to be sure.

I think the parks are pretty much operating at max capacity right now, the over-crowding is bordering on ridiculous at most times of the year. TDO clearly has an aversion to maintenance. Maybe a solution is to drive up profits in P&R by doing exactly what you said, increase occupancy rates, and reduce guest #s at the parks.

 

[ford91exploder]

Thanks for the thorough explanation. DW, DD and I go to Disney every year staying at an offsite timeshare. I look past most problems at WDW because as long as my daughter is happy so am I. That said, if we were unable to get FP+ to any of the E-tickets it would spell then end of our yearly trips to see the mouse. I would have to think others like me would either stop going or sharply reduce the time spent at WDW.

Methinks as @ParentsOf4 notes Disney is playing with fire on this one, When day guests can no longer access E-Ticket attractions gate is going to go into a power dive. For the Day visitor you need VALID ticket media so a walkup guest will have virtually no shot at any FP- experiences.

 

[ford91exploder]

For Saturday, October 19 at TSMM:

115 minutes around 5:30 pm.
105 minutes around 6 pm.
90 minutes around 6:15 pm.
75 minutes around 6:30 pm.
60 minutes around 7 pm.
50 minutes around 7:30 pm.
30 minutes around 8 pm.​

It's interesting that the standby wait dropped by 30 minutes in the half-hour between 6 and 6:30 pm.

The other interesting thing happened during the first hour TSMM was open. Waits went from 0 to 110 in about an hour, and the people in line experienced actual waits about 10 minutes higher than posted waits from around 9:15 to 9:30 am, while the CMs apparently came up to speed on estimating the wait.

Since FP- allocates immediately on open, What I would surmise is a combination of all FP- have been used and guest digust with being unable to access attractions.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Ride counts are NOT fixed - they are a function of the vehicles and dispatch. It's why training and quality of crew is so important to optimizing ride capacity. They are only fixed on fixed systems like omnimovers.

The distribution of FP.. and the ratio of that and FP+ to ride capacity.. none of these are fixed.

I know you like to contradict everything anybody posts on here, but ride capacity is more or less fixed. You're arguing just for the sake of arguing right now. Each attraction has a theoretical capacity that is obviously variable. Stop being difficult.

Only if there are BODIES IN FRONT OF YOU. Just adding FP doesn't increase waits... people actually need to take that FP and use it. And in doing so, they aren't somewhere else. So again.. without actual people in the park, FP nor FP+ can't be increasing waits everywhere. In addition, you gloss over how many people actually have FP+ and their limits.



A conclusion you keep leaping to without anything to substantiate it. Simply changing the distribution of FP in general can have the same effect.

The theory people including yourself are putting for that
- crowds are down
- there are less FPs
- but now there is FP+ so all lines are up

Just mathematically does not make sense. This could make sense in narrow slices, but it doesn't hold up to apply across the board. You're got a smaller audience that can use FP+... they can use it LESS.. AND crowds are down.. yet somehow there are more bodies on the attractions? Does not add up.

There are other factors in play you aren't accounting for. IMO the most likely suspect that staffing is the major player. Its the only thing besides higher crowds that can have the effect of increasing waits everywhere at the same time.

Are there operational changes responsible? Almost have to be... are they motivated by the companies shift to their new model including FP+? Most likely... Does that mean it's because of FP+ users? No

What possible explanation can you offer that explains why Fastpasses for Soarin', Test Track and Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Fastpasses are gone by 11:30. Look at the park hours, look at the TouringPlans.com crowd calendar (4.0 out of 10 for the resort) and tell me honestly that you think this is due to increased crowds and increased crowds only. You know full well that this is a function of Fastpass being available to 30,000 hotel rooms up to 60 days in advance of today. That means that it's more difficult for day guests to get Fastpasses and because of this substantial change, it changes guest behavior. For people that don't want to wait 60 minutes for an attraction they would previously Fastpass, they will go to lower demand attractions that don't have 60 minute waits driving those times up. It's accomplishing what Disney wants it to - redistributing crowds.

Sure, there have been reports that crowds are heavier than expected for this time of year, but the crowds are not so ridiculous that they're at 4th of July, Christmas, Easter, or New Years Eve level. All signs point to Fastpass+ being the primary reason behind this, and it points to how poor the attraction lineups are at the parks other than the Magic Kingdom.

I eagerly await your response that disagrees with every aspect of this.

 

[RSoxNo1]

My guess on lines? Crowds vs operational levels.
My guess on FP running out? Probably less given out period.

The problem is people are blurring 'FP running out' and 'lines are long' and swapping back and forth as if they are the same symptom or same cause. They are not intrinsically linked. Earlier in the thread people were like 'no FPs available... the park is useless!'.



Go back and read what he actually posted. He posted what was happening with FP availability... not more than that.

It's impossible for us to say what is actually happening inside Disney's operations by simply watching FP availability alone. You also have to accept that what is today, may not be tomorrow. This is all software Disney can change on a whim and TELL NONE OF US. All we can do is watch the results of the changes and try to adapt to the results and hope for predictability.

I would very much expect some of this to be experimentation by the company. They control all the strings.. the only thing they don't control outright is the crowd or personal desire to ride something.. those they can only influence behavior.

Yes, of course less regular Fastpasses are being distributed... they're being distributed as Fastpass+. The Standby wait times support this. If they've reduced overall Fastpass distribution as well, it seems like very odd timing. If Fastpass distribution was 60% of an attraction's capacity before, and now 40% is being distributed in advance, that leaves a lot less for days guests (You'll have to do the math on this one... I'm afraid of being wrong).

 

[RSoxNo1]

We all know, the greater issue here is that DHS, Epcot, and DAK need stronger attraction lineups. The concern about day-of Fastpass distribution is a real one, but it has always been a function of other popular options helping to distribute the crowds. This has always been the issue with Toy Story Mania, it's just magnified that much more now.

Looking at @lentesta's latest information, it seems that the new approach to these four rides (TSMM, RnRC, Soarin', TT) is to wait until the end of the day rather than the beginning.

Len, are you able to speak to larger than expected crowds as well? Is that verifiable or is there insufficient data based solely on wait times given the obvious changes?

 

[flynnibus]

For Saturday, October 19 at TSMM:

Isn't that drop off abnormal? I thought TSMM normally held it's wait time largely all day?

 

[flynnibus]

I know you like to contradict everything anybody posts on here, but ride capacity is more or less fixed. You're arguing just for the sake of arguing right now. Each attraction has a theoretical capacity that is obviously variable. Stop being difficult.

It's not me being difficult.. it's you freaking sticking your head in the ground so nothing challenges your predisposition. Wake up.. not all attractions run at full capacity all the time. It's a well understood and common tactic used by park ops. Ramp up capacity as demand dictates it.. or potentially.. don't ramp up capacity and run bare bones.. screw the lines.

What possible explanation can you offer that explains why Fastpasses for Soarin', Test Track and Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Fastpasses are gone by 11:30. Look at the park hours, look at the TouringPlans.com crowd calendar (4.0 out of 10 for the resort) and tell me honestly that you think this is due to increased crowds and increased crowds only

You clearly are incapable of following the points outlined and can't keep A separate from B. I'm not banging my head against this wall anymore.

 

[ford91exploder]

I know you like to contradict everything anybody posts on here, but ride capacity is more or less fixed. You're arguing just for the sake of arguing right now. Each attraction has a theoretical capacity that is obviously variable. Stop being difficult.


What possible explanation can you offer that explains why Fastpasses for Soarin', Test Track and Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Fastpasses are gone by 11:30. Look at the park hours, look at the TouringPlans.com crowd calendar (4.0 out of 10 for the resort) and tell me honestly that you think this is due to increased crowds and increased crowds only. You know full well that this is a function of Fastpass being available to 30,000 hotel rooms up to 60 days in advance of today. That means that it's more difficult for day guests to get Fastpasses and because of this substantial change, it changes guest behavior. For people that don't want to wait 60 minutes for an attraction they would previously Fastpass, they will go to lower demand attractions that don't have 60 minute waits driving those times up. It's accomplishing what Disney wants it to - redistributing crowds.

Sure, there have been reports that crowds are heavier than expected for this time of year, but the crowds are not so ridiculous that they're at 4th of July, Christmas, Easter, or New Years Eve level. All signs point to Fastpass+ being the primary reason behind this, and it points to how poor the attraction lineups are at the parks other than the Magic Kingdom.

I eagerly await your response that disagrees with every aspect of this.

The longer term effect will probably be that day and offsite will begin to avoid WDW and go to other attractions in the Orlando area who actively WANT their business.

Disney with 30,000 rooms has about 10 million available nights assuming 100% occupancy, If we further assume 4 people per room attending every day that means 40 million non-unique visits. And I'd further bet that Disney is also toying with "Firing Unprofitable Customer's" ie Day trippers, AP holders... So they think that if they only have park visitors who are captive to the Mouse they will make lots of money...

A applicable quote from the 'Mote in God's Eye' , ' We juggle priceless eggs in variable gravity' They are really playing with fire here and they dont even realize it.

 

[RSoxNo1]

It's not me being difficult.. it's you freaking sticking your head in the ground so nothing challenges your predisposition. Wake up.. not all attractions run at full capacity all the time. It's a well understood and common tactic used by park ops. Ramp up capacity as demand dictates it.. or potentially.. don't ramp up capacity and run bare bones.. screw the lines.

Weren't you arguing a few pages back that they're not deliberately running attractions at capacity? I assume the distinction you're making here is continuous loaders vs. dispatch rides. It's been established that Pirates isn't running at full capacity due to issues with the new boats. My bigger argument/complaint has been Fastpass+ and not the increase in wait times. Having said that, I do think the two are related.

You clearly are incapable of following the points outlined and can't keep A separate from B. I'm not banging my head against this wall anymore.

No, the issue right now isn't that a smaller audience can use Fastpass. The issue is that a smaller audience has preferred access to Fastpass. Previously if people wanted to get access to Toy Story Mania, Rock 'n' Roller Coaster and Tower of Terror Fastpasses, they could get all 3 by 11 AM day of at the absolute earliest. It was more likely that the time was 12:30 or later. Now, several 10s of thousands of guests can have access to all 3 attractions up to 60 days in advance. The system is no longer anywhere near as self governing.

You have said that I'm trying to make the following point

The theory people including yourself are putting for that
- crowds are down
- there are less FPs
- but now there is FP+ so all lines are up

• This is not a typically crowded time of year. Crowds may be up relatively to last year, but distribution of Fastpass is at previously unseen rates. That's not all because you have increased crowds.
• There are less day of Fastpasses available - I don't see any other explanation.
• Fastpass+ is causing day of Fastpasses to be distributed quicker because there are less available. I am also speculating that it has changed park touring and resulting in redistribution of crowds. As far as I'm concerned, this is really the only debatable point that I'm making.

 

[Bairstow]

It's been established that Pirates isn't running at full capacity due to issues with the new boats.

Has this been established?
Based on what I've observed when I've been down there I think it's a credible theory, but until a CM chimes in or someone stands around in the gift shop and counts heads for a decent amount of time it's just a theory.

 

[JenniferS]

Has this been established?
Based on what I've observed when I've been down there I think it's a credible theory, but until a CM chimes in or someone stands around in the gift shop and counts heads for a decent amount of time it's just a theory.

I'm not sure we need a CM to chime in on this.
During my recent trip (less than a month ago), I rode PoC 7x, and NOT ONCE were they loading the last row.
That's more than 15% of each boat going out empty. 15% empty = below capacity.

Also, when I was there, some people (myself included) declined to sit in Row 5 due to the water issues, so a fair number of boats were sent out with only Rows 1 - 4 loaded.
Now, we're 33% below capacity; and that's assuming every single other row is fully loaded.

 

[Bairstow]

Wow. Sounds like things have gotten even worse since I was there.

 

[JenniferS]

Wow. Sounds like things have gotten even worse since I was there.

The new boats leak. And they list to the right.
There is also a significant amount of splash-back from the drop. Enough to have totally soaked my t-shirt when we sat in the front row. Like "wet t-shirt contest" kind of wet.

They have inadvertently turned PoC into Splash 2.0.

 

[Bairstow]

The new boats leak. And they list to the right.
There is also a significant amount of splash-back from the drop. Enough to have totally soaked my t-shirt when we sat in the front row. Like "wet t-shirt contest" kind of wet.

They have inadvertently turned PoC into Splash 2.0.

Oh, definitely. I posted earlier that I thought that capacity on Pirates might be reduced because I've seen CMs holding boats at unload for a couple extra seconds to bail out all the water they could with trashpans. I noticed the ride was often offline for short periods of time throughout my stay too, and part of me suspects this was being done to do a more thorough bailing/drying of the all the boats.
If they've stopped loading all the rows, that would be even more likely to reduce capacity.

On the bright side, I took the Backstage Magic tour last month and one of the things they showed us were a couple "new" boats for Pirates, all in bright orange or pink, fresh from the factory. However, I haven't been able to learn whether these are just more of the "new" defective boats or "new new" boats to replace the ones that are taking on water.

 

[ford91exploder]

Howintheh--- Did TDO think that putting new leaky boats into service was a good idea instead of returning them to the vendor with the thinly veiled threat of a lawsuit, I know someone got a bonus for UPGRADING PoTC joy!

 

[danv3]

FWIW, when I was there from 10/5-10/12, I didn't observe any issues with PotC boats. No standing water, no "bailing" by cast members, and no signs that they weren't filling the boats.

I did, of course, observe longer than normal FP waits, and a physically longer than normal line, since we're now apparently going to leave half the queue empty.