NextGen / FP+ / Magic Band. The official truth starts to appear

flynnibus

Premium Member
This is all true. It's basically what I meant by group patterns. Not just the entire park population en masse, but targeted groups of people with different correlations. And honestly, part of what they will be looking at doing is finding patterns and groups that they never knew existed

These are two different applications from a similar set of data..

You have trending.. which is anonymized and not time sensitive. AKA 'Since the opening of PatF.. we've noticed a 20% increase in princess sales from american americans'. Or 'on days where the temp exceeds 90F, we see 30% less people take path 103'.

But then you also have individual direct marketing where you do focus on not just knowing 'a person..' but 'which person'. There you have both uses for trending over time, and closer to real-time information.

There are also hybrids.. like... following what one person over the course of a day as a single data point... but then trending that pattern over a much larger data set. There the trends are what are useful, but you needed to look at each person's set of data individually to get the data to compare against others. Example.. keeping track of how many attractions a guest experiences in a day.. or watching what path guests tend to take through the park (do the go left first.. or right first.. etc)

For all of these things.. it makes sense to log the data of everyone.. and how you USE the data afterwards is where the value is. I think what people are trying to say is.. there is little value to actively follow you as an individual as some point of real-time information. The more realistic value is in the trending data afterwards.. and data for 'where you are right now'.

I doubt they would focus on abilities like.. 'we've noticed its been 5hrs since you ate, lets send him a coupon to get him to eat'. But they make take the same data and look at in a historical sense and say 'we found that AP tickets tend to buy 2 snacks a day in the park.. while a tourist ticket may by 4 in that same time period'
 

sshindel

The Epcot Manifesto
For all of these things.. it makes sense to log the data of everyone.. and how you USE the data afterwards is where the value is. I think what people are trying to say is.. there is little value to actively follow you as an individual as some point of real-time information. The more realistic value is in the trending data afterwards.. and data for 'where you are right now'.
Exactly.
And for these types of trending, they're not going to really care about "you" as in John Doe of 17 Cherry Tree Lane. The "you" here will be a key, a number, not anything related to your personal information. There is always the ability to tie into demographic or other information, but for tracking an individual person with any sort of real identifying information, that seems HIGHLY unlikely to me.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Exactly.
And for these types of trending, they're not going to really care about "you" as in John Doe of 17 Cherry Tree Lane. The "you" here will be a key, a number, not anything related to your personal information. There is always the ability to tie into demographic or other information, but for tracking an individual person with any sort of real identifying information, that seems HIGHLY unlikely to me.

I think they will - that is entirely what marketing and retail will be interested in.. and what companies like Target have been doing. But the retailer isn't as interested in what path you took around the park.. as they are things like 'how many times did you enter a store and not buy something' or 'what stores you frequent', etc. They are interested in location data to know where you've been or not and how that coorelates to your sales or other actions.. but not interested in FOLLOWING YOU around as an individual as a point of interest.

Will the data allow piecing together your breadcrumbs? I would think so.. but how interesting it is... not so much.

People are so eager to paint the company evil.. but forget the company's interests and non-interests when criticizing this stuff :) The company won't have an interest in stalking you - there is no return in doing so. The company is interested in recording your patterns and usages to correlate them to their services and sales.
 

Bolt

Well-Known Member
I guess the RFID "tracking" doesn't even bother me at all because if they really wanted to follow my patterns, they could just watch the cameras that are filming me...
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
But FedEx, UPS, and USPS care about each individual package, and so does the customer.
Disney does not care about individual people, but group patterns. It's location information used for a vastly different reason.
As @Goofyernmost already suggested, collecting individual data is a valuable marketing tool. Disney almost certainly has plans to use the data it collects several ways, both at the group and at the individual level.

For me, the question is not what they intend to do with it. It's that they have a nearly unrestricted access to collect it at all, regardless of motivation or intended use. I'm intentionally being melodramatic but Disney could unknowingly sell real-time "location information" to a ring of kidnappers and still possibly avoid successful prosecution.

Perhaps the solution is as simple as requiring full disclosure. "Here's the information we collect, here's what we will do with it." That way, each person can make their own value judgment. However, government oversight is needed, the same way (for example) monopolies are regulated today. Automobiles still might be deathtraps and cigarettes still might be sold as "safe" if the government hadn't stepped in. The private sector might consist of only a few all-powerful mega conglomerates if the government hadn't stepped in. In these cases, the government determined an unfettered free market was not in the best interest of its citizens. Some government regulation was needed. The debate of how much government regulation is needed will never end but at least it occurs. Again, just because something is "legal" today, doesn't mean it will be legal 20 years from now.

As I've suggested before, today is the "Wild West Era" of data collection and personal tracking. Some steps have been taken while more are considered to regulate data collection. However, almost no protections exist for tracking. Looking at U.S. history, debates such as these continued for decades. What once was acceptable for one generation was considered completely unacceptable for the next. I have quoted Justice Alito several times because I believe he is right:
In circumstances involving dramatic technological change, the best solution to privacy concerns may be legislative.
With RFID technology, Disney will be "tracking" all of us to some degree. Publically, we have no idea to what extent. If laws don't change, there is no reason for Disney to ever tell us how much they are tracking us or what they are using the tracking information for. Like automobile and tobacco manufacturers, it's not in Disney's best financial interest to disclose. (I'm not comparing Disney to Big Auto or Big Tobacco, only suggesting that industries sometime need to be "encouraged" to disclose the truth.) I wonder, like those large industries, if Disney will need to be brought kicking and screaming into the open.
 

sshindel

The Epcot Manifesto
I think they will - that is entirely what marketing and retail will be interested in.. and what companies like Target have been doing. But the retailer isn't as interested in what path you took around the park.. as they are things like 'how many times did you enter a store and not buy something' or 'what stores you frequent', etc. They are interested in location data to know where you've been or not and how that coorelates to your sales or other actions.. but not interested in FOLLOWING YOU around as an individual as a point of interest.
I agree. Sorry if I was not clear. I was speaking of the differences between the types of trending where they might break down a daily GPS-type set of location data to an individual level. For those cases, they would not care about who the individual is. They'd care about their trending, future forecasting, etc. They will never care if 1 specific person went directly to Big Thunder, then hit the bathroom, went to Splash Mountain, walked over towards Tomorrowland and got a Dole Whip on the way past, etc. They'd care if a large population of people all somehow followed this trend and what kind of knowledge they can gain from that.

For marketing though, they'd likely be more concerned about "event" (for lack of a better word) based information. Number of visits to a ride, entry and exit to and from retail/dining locations, Point of Sale information, etc. That is the kind of stuff they can (and likely will) use that will tie directly to an individual user. But 1/2 of that they might be able to get already, for those users that would use their Key to the World card to pay for things. Depending on the state of their existing (or preexisting, no idea what has been replaced) system, all charges on those keys could theoretically be used for marketing and spend-pattern analysis.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I guess the RFID "tracking" doesn't even bother me at all because if they really wanted to follow my patterns, they could just watch the cameras that are filming me...
Yes, tracking you individually can be done today with cameras. However, consider Justice Alito's opinion in United States v. Jones:
In the pre-computer age, the greatest protections of privacy were neither constitutional nor statutory, but practical. Traditional surveillance for any extended period of time was difficult and costly and therefore rarely undertaken. The surveillance at issue in this case — constant monitoring of the location of a vehicle for four weeks — would have required a large team of agents, multiple vehicles, and perhaps aerial assistance. Only an investigation of unusual importance could have justified such an expenditure of law enforcement resources. Devices like the one used in the present case, however, make long-term monitoring relatively easy and cheap. In circumstances involving dramatic technological change, the best solution to privacy concerns may be legislative.
Although he was referring to a specific case involving the police, the ideas expressed in his opinion apply nearly equally to the private sector. The current technology allows millions to be tracked simultaneously at relatively little cost. What's changed is not what can happen but to the extent that it can happen.

In the past, Disney would track you only if they had a really good reason for it. Now they can track millions individually with minimal cost and effort.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member

jakeman

Well-Known Member
I'm intentionally being melodramatic but Disney could unknowingly sell "location information" to a ring of kidnappers and still possibly avoid successful prosecution.
Will these kidnappers have a time machine to go back in time to where your location was and kidnap you there?

Even then I don't think there is enough room in the theme parks to get up to 88 mph to generate the 1.21 gigawatts need for time travel.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Will these kidnappers have a time machine to go back in time to where your location was and kidnap you there?

Even then I don't think there is enough room in the theme parks to get up to 88 mph to generate the 1.21 gigawatts need for time travel.
I fixed my original post for you.:)
 
I always thought Disney had a way to obtain that information anyway. Like there dining plans they know what you eat where you stay and if you were charging things back to the room what you buy. I am still not sure how much the general public will use magicband see as the average park visitor doesn't utilize fastpass. I don't see it as a bad thing just fastpass evolving. It really won't effect people that do rope drop and if we can use both FP and the new system ... Well I would love that!
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I always thought Disney had a way to obtain that information anyway. Like there dining plans they know what you eat where you stay and if you were charging things back to the room what you buy. I am still not sure how much the general public will use magicband see as the average park visitor doesn't utilize fastpass. I don't see it as a bad thing just fastpass evolving. It really won't effect people that do rope drop and if we can use both FP and the new system ... Well I would love that!
Welcome to the threads!
 

dhall

Well-Known Member
I really don't want to take all of this point by point, because for the most part, 'Accurate but Incomplete' is, to borrow your assessment, accurate but incomplete. If you don't mind, I'll respond to a few specific comments.

Any software engineer will tell you it's impractical to store information on a "continuous" basis. Discrete collection points have to be established in order to populate a database. "Mr. Smith entered the theme park at 9 AM. Mr Smith entered the Peter Pan queue at 9:30 AM. etc." We could guess where Disney intends to collect such information but, from an implementation perspective, this information must be gathered at discrete times and discrete locations.

Whether it is practical or not depends largely on how much money the customer wants to spend, which goes back to how they're going to use it. Your example is good and ties into discrete locations, which is fairly economical and leads to information that is useful in a number of interesting ways.

The cards cannot be read by today's long-range readers. But they can be detected by short-range readers that will be deployed at numerous data collection points. Disney's ability to collect "location information" is limited only by how many short-range readers they decide to deploy and current technology. As the technology improves and as Disney identifies needs, Disney reasonably can be expected to upgrade its technology and deploy more "location information" readers.

"location information" will be collected for MagicBands. However, there is nothing special about the RFID cards that prevent less-accurate "location information" to be gathered as well. And, as already mentioned, as technology improves and if the business need arises, it's reasonable to expect Disney to improve the "location information" it collects.

There's a balancing act, and while you're correct to point out that that balance can change over time, there are some mitigating factors to keep in mind. For one, the bands themselves are a limitation -- once they're deployed (and especially if they get any traction with folks customizing the bands), they'll be difficult to upgrade, so they're stuck with the first generation tech. If Disney was the type of company to plan ahead and put extra money into things, then I might be willing to believe that they've built extra tech into the bands as a way of future proofing them (if they were that type of company, I don't believe we'd be discussing this).

Another mitigating factor is the utility of higher resolution data. One of the fundamental things that makes all of the modelling work is that it requires working with large numbers. If you are gathering information at a very high resolution, then the numbers of guests in any particular location becomes smaller and therefore less reliable. This isn't a function of the technology -- this is a function of the underlying math.

Look at it this way -- there's a reason that television ratings, political predictions, etc, work with fairly large demographic buckets, and it isn't just for time or convenience. For example, you could measure TV ratings by each discrete year of age of the viewer, but it turns out that the distinction between viewers who are 25, 26, and 27 isn't really meaningful -- it's essentially statistical noise. Gathering location information for guests passing through a large number of small areas has the same weakness -- the distinctions between adjacent areas yields far more noise than useful information.

Finally, remember that the real value in tracking guests location is in aggregation & correlation. Actual paths that guests take aren't something that can be usefully combined or compared. For the uses that require information that is current (targeted advertisement comes immediately to mind), they want to target large enough groups that the expected response rate (generally something in the single digits, if it involves spending money) returns enough positive responses to make it worth the effort. They're not going to advertise to everyone passing the water fountain across from the TreeHouse -- they're going to advertise to everyone between the Crystal Palace & Pecos Bills.

For all other uses, there's almost no interest in the individual data points. How much time I spent in the Emporium isn't really interesting to them, except that they can combine that number with all the other numbers for men in my age group, income bracket, home area, etc, and that they can observe how that aggregate number changes over time as they try different things. (I would like to think that one of the things they'll eventually try is to stock the shelves with a wide variety of interesting, good quality merchandise. although I expect they'll exhaust every other alternative first.)
 

dhall

Well-Known Member
You have to think that this is exactly how they determined wait times pre-Fastpass. You could pretty much figure out a given ride's wait time simply by looking at the length of the queue. We used to ride the TTA just so we could "size up" the wait time at Space Mountain my checking out the interior queue.

How did we ever manage a day at the parks back in the stone age without smart phones, video screens and tracking devices? :)

By walking around, observing and talking to the guests, and looking at the state of the park. Gee, no wonder they want to automate -- that sounds like real work.
 

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