NextGen / FP+ / Magic Band. The official truth starts to appear

[StepInTime]

The two areas being used for wishes are areas that were not options to Guest before. They are using the Rose Garden lawn and the terrace landing. Rose garden lawn has never been an option and terrace landing has always been roped off for special firework viewing.

That will be great if that is the case! My experience with it from this past March, as stated above, was far different. They were using the entire hub and a good section on MSUSA. The situation was truly chaotic, and was worse than what we have experienced on NYE tips.

 

[jlsHouston]

What info are they getting that they don't already know, and haven't already known for decades? They already know how many people enter each park per day, what type of ticket they used, and how many people enter and exit each hour. They know how many people go into every ride or show every hour of every day. They already know what kind of food you eat and where, what kind of souvenirs you buy and where, and how many Fastpasses you pull for which rides on which day of your vacation. They know how many people watch the parades and how many watch Fantasmic, and which ones get the dinner or dessert package. They know how many people use Magical Express every day of every year, and how many people register a rental car with the front desk. They know which hotel room you sleep in for how many nights, and whether or not you prefer foam pillows or if you asked for a feather pillow.

What visitor information does using a MagicBand give them that they haven't already known since at least the 1990's?

I kind of wondered this too...

 

[spaceghost]

What info are they getting that they don't already know, and haven't already known for decades? They already know how many people enter each park per day, what type of ticket they used, and how many people enter and exit each hour. They know how many people go into every ride or show every hour of every day. They already know what kind of food you eat and where, what kind of souvenirs you buy and where, and how many Fastpasses you pull for which rides on which day of your vacation. They know how many people watch the parades and how many watch Fantasmic, and which ones get the dinner or dessert package. They know how many people use Magical Express every day of every year, and how many people register a rental car with the front desk. They know which hotel room you sleep in for how many nights, and whether or not you prefer foam pillows or if you asked for a feather pillow.

What visitor information does using a MagicBand give them that they haven't already known since at least the 1990's?

Tons. It connects the data points. They may know how many people enter the park at a given time with a certain admission media, and they know how many people are riding a specific ride at any given time, but they don't know how many people with a one day pass are riding POTC at any given time, for example. Being able to connect the data points will offer a plethora of new data on guest behavior patterns. Whether or not that data will be put to good use is another question.

 

[dhall]

What info are they getting that they don't already know, and haven't already known for decades? They already know how many people enter each park per day, what type of ticket they used, and how many people enter and exit each hour. They know how many people go into every ride or show every hour of every day. They already know what kind of food you eat and where, what kind of souvenirs you buy and where, and how many Fastpasses you pull for which rides on which day of your vacation. They know how many people watch the parades and how many watch Fantasmic, and which ones get the dinner or dessert package. They know how many people use Magical Express every day of every year, and how many people register a rental car with the front desk. They know which hotel room you sleep in for how many nights, and whether or not you prefer foam pillows or if you asked for a feather pillow.

What visitor information does using a MagicBand give them that they haven't already known since at least the 1990's?

They know how many people have left the park, but they don't know who. They know that a lot of the onsite guests leave the parks in the afternoon to go back to their hotel & rest or swim, but now they'll be able to measure that far more precisely Now, they'll know exactly how many of their onsite guests take breaks vs. how many are park commandos.

They don't currently know how many people are in the shops and for how long. For shops that are at the exit of an attraction, they know some raw numbers, but they don't know the average time that guests spend in such shops. Most shops, though, aren't at exits, and they don't have true numbers for guest flow in the shops, only for actual purchases. With more readers installed, they have a much more complete picture of store traffic.

They know how many people have ridden a ride, but they don't know about repeat ridership.

The biggest thing, tho, is the correlations. They can't currently correlate raw ridership numbers: there's no way to know how many folks ride both Space Mountain and the Wedway, or in what order. They know that some number of people purchasing gifts at an exit shop didn't ride the ride first, but they don't know how many. They don't know which rides are more popular with folks who buy the big ticket souvies or expensive meals.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The biggest thing, tho, is the correlations. They can't currently correlate raw ridership numbers: there's no way to know how many folks ride both Space Mountain and the Wedway, or in what order. They know that some number of people purchasing gifts at an exit shop didn't ride the ride first, but they don't know how many. They don't know which rides are more popular with folks who buy the big ticket souvies or expensive meals.

I imagine they'll have a better idea of what combinations of products and displays sell better. I'm thinking along the lines of: "1000 people walked past display stand A and 100 bought the product. 2000 people walked past display stand B yet only 50 bought the same product." Use this kind of information to correlate what works best where. Up till now, everything is collected by hand; someone standing with a counter, pressing a button, a labor intensive way to collect data. More detailed information should help them maximize POP sales.

However, I can't imagine this generating more than a few million in additional sales. The big money must be elsewhere.

 

[Bob Saget]

Am I, for example, going to have to just hope for a manageable parade spot because Bob and his party of 30475603468 from Jersey reserved the good spots?

Leave me out of this! (Besides, I only travel with a group of 30475603455).

 

[Bob Saget]

Disney would rather your space be used by Bob and his party...

That's just because I'm famous.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Leave me out of this! (Besides, I only travel with a group of 30475603455).

I didn't know more than 30 billion people even lived on this planet (let alone could fit in MK). Perhaps though, it was you whom I was being heard paged about regarding your party from Saturn ariving, Mr. Tom Morrow?

 

[unkadug]

That's just because I'm famous.

And you use the secret entrances so as not to be bothered by us regular folks.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Leave me out of this! (Besides, I only travel with a group of 30475603455).

Now that's an entourage!

 

[awoogala]

Tons. It connects the data points. They may know how many people enter the park at a given time with a certain admission media, and they know how many people are riding a specific ride at any given time, but they don't know how many people with a one day pass are riding POTC at any given time, for example. Being able to connect the data points will offer a plethora of new data on guest behavior patterns. Whether or not that data will be put to good use is another question.

and now they can link it to income and vacation habits.. People from nj, who make between $50,000-100,000, who prefer deluxe hotels, tend to shop for 30 minutes twice a day. they buy more classic mickey. They buy an average of $50 in princess gear per day. They range in age from 30-45. They also like the following types of rides: thrill, princess m&g, etc.
Now they can use that info to merely manipulate you in the park, send direct advertising (web, phone, internet), sell your group to other direct merchandisers who want that demographic, send you better fp+ options because you spent more, offer a bounceback/free dining to you (and not the $40,000 a year deluxe resort user who only spent $10 a day, and did not go to the restaurants)...
Then there is the data on your child, what you are willing to spend on toys for them, how they can direct market to the kids.

 

[Joseph Robinson]

That's just because I'm famous.

I'd have less animosity towards you if you would just tell the kids how you met their mother already.

 

[Skyway]

Ok, Ok, Ok. Stop the presses for just a moment.

I am by no means a pixie dust snorter. And I'm certainly no mathematician.

But knowing what we know now about FP+, is it at least possible standby lines will not be as bad as everyone fears?? Just hear me out (and I admit I may have math errors).

We know that (until further notice) everyone will be eligible to get 3 FPs per day. Being someone who knows how to exploit the current system, I can sometimes get 5 or 6 FPs in a full day. Other, less knowledgable guests may get 1 or none.

If I had to guess, I would imagine the overall average number of FP's a guest obtains is about 2 or 3...which is what is being allotted under FP+

By adding FP to more attractions, parades, fireworks and dining, I would bet Disney is doubling or tripling the overall number of FP attractions (yes, including the ones that currently don't "need" FP)

So if overall FP distribution is staying roughly the same (3 per person) and the number of places to use it is doubling or tripling, standby lines should move faster.

The problem with the current FP system is that a majority of guests choose to use their FP on E-Tickets. So Soarin' has a 90 minute standby line and The Seas has none.

We still don't know how the new FP+ system will distribute FPs. But it appears Disney will take away much of our flexibility to choose. (Maybe you'll be able to get a Soarin FP, or maybe only the Seas will be available to you. Or maybe only Illuminations ROE seating) That sounds bad at first, but may actually work to everyone's benefit.

Using the above example and imaginary numbers, could it be possible that instead of distributing 1000 FP for Soarin' and none for The Seas, they give 500 for Soarin and 500 for The Seas.

That will create a much longer standby line for Seas, but also a much shorter line for Soarin'. That would suck for Seas fans and be great for Soarin fans.

But for visitors seeing both attractions (which is probably a majority), the wait times would cancel each other out.

So is it possible with 3 FP+ a guest could visit the same 10 attractions they visit now and wait in line the exact same amount of time as now, but with "walk on" attractions gaining longer standby lines while E-Tickets get shorter lines?

If my math is right, then FP+ will do precisely what many FP opponents want: eliminate the imbalance created by the original FP.

In that case, FP+ will become a pointless but harmless gimmick that Disney can promote. Guests will FEEL like they are getting perk when they breeze past the BTMRR queue with FP+, but then pay the price with a longer Haunted Mansion standby queue and shorter Space Mountain line.

I agree life would be better if FP were gone altogether. But is it possible this system---as they have described it so far--- could make things a little better?

 

[dhall]

I imagine they'll have a better idea of what combinations of products and displays sell better. I'm thinking along the lines of: "1000 people walked past display stand A and 100 bought the product. 2000 people walked past display stand B yet only 50 bought the same product." Use this kind of information to correlate what works best where. Up till now, everything is collected by hand; someone standing with a counter, pressing a button, a labor intensive way to collect data. More detailed information should help them maximize POP sales.

However, I can't imagine this generating more than a few million in additional sales. The big money must be elsewhere.

Here's a couple links I posted in another thread (Numbers, Cars and Quality ...) about how Target uses this same capability to drive advertising, plan store layout, etc.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmir...teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/

In a lot of your posts, you're too focused on direct monetization. There's certainly going to be some revenue tied directly to this system, but there's no way that they can make back that investment through direct means alone.

The basic idea is that increased sales are great, but just as important is that better targeting leads to better brand identification. If you get advertising that's tailored directly to your interests, you get a better impression of the store that goes beyond the first order sales and leads to much higher sales over time. How much more fun is a catalog where there's something cool on every page than the old Sears catalog with a few sections directed at you and several sections that you'd flip through quickly because they were aimed at different demographics. If they can arrange to give you more messages aimed at your specific interests, it increases the chances that you have a positive impression regardless of the overall quality of the offering.

That's the theory, anyway. I don't believe that it necessarily makes sense to run theme parks that way, but that's what their thinking is. For every Target that gets it right, there are dozens of Kmarts/Sears, Circuit Citys, and Borders that flame out spectacularly.

In some ways, this is the ultimate Presslerization of the parks.

---

I'm also fairly certain that quite a lot of the budget is tied up in infrastructure that IT needs and has probably needed for many years, but never got because they couldn't make a convincing enough case for (happens to IT groups everywhere). Eddie Sotto had an example where they need to do some refurbs on an attraction but could never get the funds, so they had to spin it into a reimagineering project tied to some new characters that could be marketed to bring in new visitors.

 

[asianway]

I imagine they'll have a better idea of what combinations of products and displays sell better. I'm thinking along the lines of: "1000 people walked past display stand A and 100 bought the product. 2000 people walked past display stand B yet only 50 bought the same product." Use this kind of information to correlate what works best where. Up till now, everything is collected by hand; someone standing with a counter, pressing a button, a labor intensive way to collect data. More detailed information should help them maximize POP sales.

However, I can't imagine this generating more than a few million in additional sales. The big money must be elsewhere.

They now have the plumbing in place to charge for a FP ala carte if they so choose. What's the annual capacity of Space Mountain? Times $5? Tap to purchase...

They may never do it, but they could

 

[ParentsOf4]

They now have the plumbing in place to charge for a FP ala carte if they so choose. What's the annual capacity of Space Mountain? Times $5? Tap to purchase...

They may never do it, but they could

You might like this thread:

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/how-much-would-people-pay-for-a-tsmm-fp.857571/

In it, I asked the poll question, how much do you think other people would pay for a FP? What stuns me is that 1/3 of the people said they'd pay nothing. One of the poll question options was under $1. Seriously, your options are wait 120 minutes or pay 1 cent and you're not going to pay even 1 cent? Who are you kidding? Let me give you a nickel and you can take the entire family. By the way, how much did you pay for that Mickey ice cream bar?

With that said, I don't think Disney will directly monetize FP+. It's much better for them to offer it as a perk for staying at, for example, Deluxe Resorts. "Stay at one of our beautiful Deluxe Resorts and get 4 extra free FP+ per day!" It sounds so much more palpable to the typical Disney guest than selling FP like Universal or Six Flags.

 

[Yankee Mouse]

Lots of stuff to read in this thread, and to be fair I did only skim through some of the posts so some of this may have been addressed already but here are some of my opinions, and that is just what they are so take them as you will.

There isn't much of a difference between the RFID band and the KTTW card as far as charging and room access goes IMO. The only difference is the tracking ability, which isn't a big deal to me and is already there to some extent, and the interactive experiences, again something that I feel indifferent about. From a security standpoint they are both the same. I mean honestly, the talk of people getting into your hotel room by stealing your bracelet or waiting for a kid to drop it is just silly. The same thing could be said for your room key now.

The thing that I think is the most significant change and the thing I dread is the FP changes. This is the first I have heard of them getting rid of regular FP so that is disconcerting. I have a hard time getting my family to agree on reserving meals 180 days out, there is no way I am going to be able to get them to agree on reserving rides in advance, even the morning of will be difficult. They like to be spontaneous, now it seems we will be at a disadvantage because of that, even though Disney said in their release that you can plan as little as you like, it seems if you don't want to plan than you will be at a disadvantage, just like ADRs now. In addition, as already mentioned lets say I use my 3 daily FP+ on SM, BTTMR, and Splash, then I am stuck waiting in a line for PP? Forget that. What happens when I show up at one of those rides with my FP+ and for whatever reason there is no line? It's a waste. Traveling with kids can also really throw a wrench into preplanned rides, as I learned on my first trip last year with my 18 month old. I do realize though that they give you the option of changing things on the fly which could be a good backup, depending on how it works.

Overall I don't think the next gen idea is bad or, with the exception of FP+, is really very different from the KTTW and I am willing to hold judgement till I see it in action. I just hope that the people who like to be somewhat spontaneous aren't going to be at a severe disadvantage because of this new system.

 

[Bob]

Not sure if this has already been posted/debated/dismissed but I just stumbled upon this article on NextGen.

http://jimhillmedia.com/editor_in_c...-the-next-generation-of-theme-park-goers.aspx

 

[TinkerBelle8878]

I have issues with alot of this. So much so that I don't even know where to begin. The mega planners need to chill and this all is just feeding into their neuroses. A great number of us grew up waiting on lines at the park and we survived. We probably became more patient human beings because of it. The planners want to plan, let them plan to take their kids at slower times and out of school. Having to book meals so far out and people getting closed out of places to eat is silly. I blame the dining plan for a great deal of this.

I'm sure I'm in the minority of people who don't own a smartphone, don't want a smart phone, and on vacation (especially in DIsney) the last thing I'm going to be doing is checking it constantly. Basing some of the planning of this system on smartphones, is going to alientate people. People aren't going to want massive roaming charges for using the phones and then for however long using the apps to run this will take.

As previous posters have mentioned, I no longer buy park merchandise because frankly it stinks. Its not what it once was in quality or execution. Just because they slap on some old logos, doesn't make it the same. I find no real big reason to go to the parks as my first choice vacation because there's nothing really that new being built. Mermaid is nice but maybe it should've been built 10-15 years ago when 20K was closed. Seven Dwarfs mine coaster? I was never a fan of the Snow White ride so this is neither here nor there for me. Sounds interesting but I'm sure there'll be some way they'll cheap out before its said and done.

A redecorating of Test Track? Meh. I'm sure its pretty but that wasn't nearly as in dire need of help as Imagination or the rest of Future World.

The beancounters want to make more money, build a better product. The inflation of prices isn't matching what's being recieved in return. I'd rather take the trip out to DL where every ten feet there isnt' a DVC kiosk and things aren't falling into disrepair or just standing waiting to be razed.

There is so much that could've been done with technology and the money going into it, all in regards to a theme park and it seems that we're just being used for some bizarre experiment

 

[TheBeatles]

could this mean that some merch or food locations could have justified seasonal hours or complete shut downs now that data can be collected as to whether or not people go there?