NextGen / FP+ / Magic Band. The official truth starts to appear

[ParentsOf4]

I don't think the percentages will be that complex (or at least that structured). My understanding as well is that current Fastpass distribution is in the 60-70% of capacity. The question I see now is will there be better education on Fastpass+ usage than there is on Fastpass usage. Will Disney and travel agents push the 3-4 Fastpass+ reservations per day on guests that may have otherwise not utilized Fastpass at all, or will usage by limited to those people that know to ask about it.

I think a better way to look at distribution would be as follows:

• Allocate 33% of Fastpass+ distribution capacity to those guests that can book 180 days in advance
• Open an additional 33% of Fastpass+ distribution capacity at 60 days in advance
• Open the remaining 33% of Fastpass+ distribution day of

What this may accomplish is that from 61-180 days 33% of the Soarin' reservations are booked, then at 60 days out if you missed out on a Soarin' reservation you get another chance. Then if you miss out in the 1-60 range, you get a 3rd chance day of. Now I put it out as an even distribution, but personally I would like that distribution to be weighted much more on the "Day of" side of things.

Another component can be that the day of Fastpass+ reservations will only be available for things that traditionally had Fastpass to begin with. This would mean that parade viewing may not be available day of, while Space Mountain is available. Rides that have had this added can run Fastpass+ day of on an as needed basis. The Haunted Mansion shouldn't offer day of Fastpass+ reservations in mid September, but July 4th it's probably a good option.

Nice post. There are a couple of things I'd like to comment on.

First, I agree that more people will likely use FP+. Some (many?) still seem to have a hard time with FP. At least with FP+, they'll have their reservations before they arrive and will be able to plan accordingly. It might make more sense to more people since FP+ is more like a dining reservation. I suspect people who were intimidated by FP will find FP+ much easier to use and will have a better grasp of FP+ before they arrive.

Second, there's nothing wrong with your algorithm but I assure you my algorithm is just as easy to implement. In a $1.5B budget, both algorithms are drops in the bucket. To me, the real question is what will Disney try to accomplish now that it has absolute control over FP+ distribution?

In order to get your FP+, you have to login. Disney's going to know exactly who you are, how often you visit, what resort you're staying at, how much you spent in the past, etc. Disney would be silly not to use this information to "reward" its best customers. It's an extremely common practice. Why shouldn't Disney do it?

If I spend $600/night on a room at the Grand Floridian, I'm going to be pretty unhappy if I can't get a FP+ for (for example) Space Mountain. The last thing Disney wants is a bunch of unhappy $600/night guests. With all the information in the database, is Disney really going to allow FP+ to be distributed randomly at the 180-day, 60-day, and same day marks? IMHO, it's just not good business; it doesn't make sense.

I'm not suggesting my algorithm is correct. However, FP+ allows Disney to "wipe the slate clean", to throw away all the FP rules. Disney would be silly not to design a FP+ distribution algorithm that maximizes revenue.

I don't see Disney distributing a lot of "day of" FP+. One of the goals of FP+ is to allow Disney to optimize resources by knowing crowd levels in advance. Holding back a large number of FP+ seems to run contrary to that goal. For every FP+ Disney doesn't distribute in advance, that's one more person who just might go to Universal or SeaWorld instead. However, if that person has a FP+ 180 or 60 days in advance, that person is much more likely to visit WDW to use the FP+.

 

[djlaosc]

Nice post. There are a couple of things I'd like to comment on.

First, I agree that more people will likely use FP+. Some (many?) still seem to have a hard time with FP. At least with FP+, they'll have their reservations before they arrive and will be able to plan accordingly. It might make more sense to more people since FP+ is more like a dining reservation. I suspect people who were intimidated by FP will find FP+ much easier to use and will have a better grasp of FP+ before they arrive.

Second, there's nothing wrong with your algorithm but I assure you my algorithm is just as easy to implement. In a $1.5B budget, both algorithms are drops in the bucket. To me, the real question is what will Disney try to accomplish now that it has absolute control over FP+ distribution?

In order to get your FP+, you have to login. Disney's going to know exactly who you are, how often you visit, what resort you're staying at, how much did you spent in the past, etc. Disney would be silly not to use this information to "reward" its best customers. It's an extremely common practice. Why shouldn't Disney do it?

If I spend $600/night on a room at the Grand Floridian, I'm going to be pretty unhappy if I can't get a FP+ for (for example) Space Mountain. The last thing Disney wants is a bunch of unhappy $600/night guests. With all the information in the database, is Disney really going to allow FP+ to be distributed randomly at the 180-day, 60-day, and same day marks? IMHO, it's just not good business; it doesn't make sense.

I guess you could combine both algorithms and get something like this (I think? It's 1am so my maths could be a bit wrong)

• 50% capacity standby
• 6.67% capacity Deluxe Resorts 180 days out
• 5% capacity Moderate Resorts 180 days out
• 3.3% capacity Value Resorts 180 days out
• 6.67% capacity Deluxe Resorts 60 days out
• 5% capacity Moderate Resorts 60 days out
• 3.3% capacity Value Resorts 60 days out
• 6.67% capacity Deluxe Resorts day of
• 5% capacity Moderate Resorts day of
• 3.3% capacity Value Resorts day of
• 5% capacity day guests day of

Does anyone have the capacities of one of the major rides so we could see how this could work with actual ride numbers?

 

[ParentsOf4]

I guess you could combine both algorithms and get something like this (I think? It's 1am so my maths could be a bit wrong)

Forget all the other stuff for a moment; I'm dying to know what the FP+ distribution algorithm is. Let's see if I can find a software engineer at Disney who I can bribe into telling me the algorithm. I promise I won't tell anyone!

 

[awoogala]

Nice post. There are a couple of things I'd like to comment on.



If I spend $600/night on a room at the Grand Floridian, I'm going to be pretty unhappy if I can't get a FP+ for (for example) Space Mountain. The last thing Disney wants is a bunch of unhappy $600/night guests. With all the information in the database, is Disney really going to allow FP+ to be distributed randomly at the 180-day, 60-day, and same day marks? IMHO, it's just not good business; it doesn't make sense.
.

Just wondering where you got the 180?
On the My disney eperience app terms of use, it says onsite guests get fp+ at 60 days.

 

[JungleTrekFan]

in a sense, yes, but it sounds like foot traffic can be tracked closely now and be used as an excuse to keep things closed/seasonal.

They can't track where people are, and shops/restaurants already are closed/seasonal from data already used. Any extra information they gain from their app and RFID tags will not make any drastic changes. It might possibly change the day that Tomorrowland Terrace,for example, goes from being open to closed or hours slightly. Doubtful though because they already track the number of transactions and thats what really determines hours and days of being open or closed.

They know how many people have ridden a ride, but they don't know about repeat ridership.

The biggest thing, tho, is the correlations. They can't currently correlate raw ridership numbers: there's no way to know how many folks ride both Space Mountain and the Wedway, or in what order. They know that some number of people purchasing gifts at an exit shop didn't ride the ride first, but they don't know how many. They don't know which rides are more popular with folks who buy the big ticket souvies or expensive meals.

You do a lot of inferring that i agree with, but i think its important to point out that a lot of the information that will be gained is not from the rfid tag use by itself, but rather simultaneously with the mobile apps use.

 

[flynnibus]

Just wondering where you got the 180?

in one of podcasts someone (len telsa if I recall?) made this claim - yet provided no substantiation for it nor ever mentioned why they thought that. I've given it no credibility - but because a o-town blogger said it.. people are running with it.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Just wondering where you got the 180?
On the My disney eperience app terms of use, it says onsite guests get fp+ at 60 days.

Fron Len Testa and Jim Hill. Len is the co-author to the comprehensive Unofficial Guide to Walt Disney World. See this post:

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...a-regular-fastpass.857164/page-5#post-5246972

A link to their podcast is here:

http://www.wdwtoday.com/article.php?story=20121220211417552

They don't cite a source for the 180-day booking window.

P.S. I don't expect Disney to implement the different FP+ window until they eliminate EMH. Disney needs to first make sure the public accepts FP+ before making further changes. Then I expect them to phase out EMH. We've already lost one evening EMH. The next logical step would be to eliminate all evening EMH and then, finally, morning EMH. With all the other changes, Disney doesn't need to get people even more upset about EMH so I think their strategy, to implement NextGen in phases, is smart. Some people love EMH but it's a huge opex for Disney and, besides, a lot of other people dislike having to wake up really early or stay awake really late for it. EMH was a fun experiment while it lasted but it's time has come and gone (IMHO).

 

[awoogala]

Fron Len Testa and Jim Hill. Len is the co-author to the comprehensive Unofficial Guide to Walt Disney World. See this post:

http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...a-regular-fastpass.857164/page-5#post-5246972

A link to their podcast is here:

http://www.wdwtoday.com/article.php?story=20121220211417552

They don't cite a source for the 180-day booking window.

yeah, well the 60 days are listed on the terms for the app. I would have to go with the direct from the terms numbers. But everything can change at some point or another.
EDIT: the exact phrasing is 60 days for Magic Your way ticket holders, "The selection window may vary for other admission tickets or passholders"
so perhaps we are both getting it. lol

 

[LuvtheGoof]

So here are a few other thoughts on FP+ and RFID tracking. Disney installs hidden readers at every attraction to track the exact number of people that visit an attraction. I know they have turnstiles now, but those are not always accurate (ECVs, wheelchairs, and strollers come to mind). With the readers, everyone is tracked. So FP+ is now available at the HM, and standby was usually only 10-20 minutes (well, it is when we go!), but now standby is 60-70 minutes due to FP+. Fewer people decide to wait that long, and don't go on the ride, lowering attendance, and Disney decides they don't need as many CMs working the attraction, causing layoffs (oops, they're already doing that!!), and upkeep doesn't have to be as good (oops, not doing that already as well)! This may also shove people onto less popular rides that they may not have gone on in the first place (which should probably be replaced with something better anyway), thus increasing those standby lines as well. In all, a ghastly mess!!!

 

[awoogala]

Fron Len Testa and Jim Hill. Len is the co-author to the comprehensive Unofficial Guide to Walt Disney World. See this post:


P.S. I don't expect Disney to implement the different FP+ window until they eliminate EMH. Disney needs to first make sure the public accepts FP+ before making further changes. Then I expect them to phase out EMH. We've already lost one evening EMH. The next logical step would be to eliminate all evening EMH and then, finally, morning EMH. With all the other changes, Disney doesn't need to get people even more upset about EMH so I think their strategy, to implement NextGen in phases, is smart. Some people love EMH but it's a huge opex for Disney and, besides, a lot of other people dislike having to wake up really early or stay awake really late for it. EMH was a fun experiment while it lasted but it's time has come and gone (IMHO).

I thought they already phased it out! EMH are so lean for January! Last time there were practically emh every day, usually a morning and an evening. Now it seems a handful for the week.

 

[Hakunamatata]

This may also shove people onto less popular rides that they may not have gone on in the first place (which should probably be replaced with something better anyway), thus increasing those standby lines as well. In all, a ghastly mess!!!

So is the bracelet physically drawn to the less popular rides by some external force like magnetism or does the bracelet somehow have an effect on the human nervous system that compels the wearer to ride an attraction they may not have ridden without wearing said bracelet?

 

[LuvtheGoof]

So is the bracelet physically drawn to the less popular rides by some external force like magnetism or does the bracelet somehow have an effect on the human nervous system that compels the wearer to ride an attraction they may not have ridden without wearing said bracelet?

My thought was that if standby times increase at rides that were normally quite a bit shorter (like JC or HM), more people might opt to at least ride something (like the Prince Charming Regal Carrousel or Swiss Family Treehouse) that does not have a long wait time, because there is no FP+ at that attraction, rather than nothing at all. The family may not have gone on these rides at all if they could have gone on JC or HM instead. I guess time will tell on exactly how this affects the ride times.

 

[awoogala]

So is the bracelet physically drawn to the less popular rides by some external force like magnetism or does the bracelet somehow have an effect on the human nervous system that compels the wearer to ride an attraction they may not have ridden without wearing said bracelet?

Well, you don't get to pick 4 seperate attractions, from what I read in the app agreement, you get a "set" of experiences to choose from..
so set 1 may be
space mountain, philharmagic, iasw, and foreworks
set 2 might be
splash, teacups, parade view, and iasw
etc.
"when you initially make fastpass+ selections for a particular park, you will select a fastpass+ experience set..."

 

[ParentsOf4]

I thought they already phased it out! EMH are so lean for January! Last time there were practically emh every day, usually a morning and an evening. Now it seems a handful for the week.

Sure, that might be what they do, offer EMH on a much more limited basis. That way, Disney can claim EMH are still offered while greatly reducing opex by eliminating most EMH days. EMH are expensive. With FP+, Disney has the means to offer onsite guests a real benefit during normal park hours. Like it or not (I think 90% of WDW guests are inexperienced enough to not even notice the difference), it just makes good business sense for Disney to get rid of as many EMH as possible.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I guess you could combine both algorithms and get something like this (I think? It's 1am so my maths could be a bit wrong)

• 50% capacity standby
• 6.67% capacity Deluxe Resorts 180 days out
• 5% capacity Moderate Resorts 180 days out
• 3.3% capacity Value Resorts 180 days out
• 6.67% capacity Deluxe Resorts 60 days out
• 5% capacity Moderate Resorts 60 days out
• 3.3% capacity Value Resorts 60 days out
• 6.67% capacity Deluxe Resorts day of
• 5% capacity Moderate Resorts day of
• 3.3% capacity Value Resorts day of
• 5% capacity day guests day of

Does anyone have the capacities of one of the major rides so we could see how this could work with actual ride numbers?

Some capacities that people have put on here (approximates)
Test Track: 1350
Peter Pan's Flight: 1200
Little Mermaid: 2000

Forget all the other stuff for a moment; I'm dying to know what the FP+ distribution algorithm is. Let's see if I can find a software engineer at Disney who I can bribe into telling me the algorithm. I promise I won't tell anyone!

Based on the research I did for this article, the distribution is roughly 5% of an attraction's capacity available every 5 minutes. This means that starting at 40 minutes after park opening up to 30 minutes prior to park opening that up to 60% of an attraction's capacity can be distributed using Fastpass. I don't know with 100% certainty that this formula is correct (or constant), but I speculate that it's fairly close to accurate.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Some capacities that people have put on here (approximates)
Test Track: 1350
Peter Pan's Flight: 1200
Little Mermaid: 2000

I've read Expedition Everest capacity is 2000/hour

Based on the research I did for this article, the distribution is roughly 5% of an attraction's capacity available every 5 minutes. This means that starting at 40 minutes after park opening up to 30 minutes prior to park opening that up to 60% of an attraction's capacity can be distributed using Fastpass. I don't know with 100% certainty that this formula is correct (or constant), but I speculate that it's fairly close to accurate.

Using your Peter Pan's number as an example, it handles 1200 per hour or 100 ((1200/60)*5) per 5 minutes. This is Peter Pan's "capacity available every 5 minutes". Therefore, distributing "5% of an attraction's capacity available every 5 minutes" means handing out 5 (100 * 0.05) FP per 5-minute block. I know I'm missing your math.

Do you mean, distributing "5% of an attraction's hourly capacity every 5 minutes"? Then the math is: 1200 * (0.05 * (60/5)) = 720 FP per hour block, which corresponds to 60% (720/1200) of ride capacity.

 

[Prince-1]

Besides the thread about the mean ol' vendor at Epcot's flower and garden festival this has been one entertaining bunch of posts.

 

[SirLink]

Forget all the other stuff for a moment; I'm dying to know what the FP+ distribution algorithm is. Let's see if I can find a software engineer at Disney who I can bribe into telling me the algorithm. I promise I won't tell anyone!

Its not Disney who you need to bribe, there is a certain consultancy firm involved I'm sure you could get some of the system designs from them...

 

[danlb_2000]

They can't track where people are, and shops/restaurants already are closed/seasonal from data already used. Any extra information they gain from their app and RFID tags will not make any drastic changes. It might possibly change the day that Tomorrowland Terrace,for example, goes from being open to closed or hours slightly. Doubtful though because they already track the number of transactions and thats what really determines hours and days of being open or closed.

You do a lot of inferring that i agree with, but i think its important to point out that a lot of the information that will be gained is not from the rfid tag use by itself, but rather simultaneously with the mobile apps use.

We don't know this. It would be technically feastible to track people in great detail if they wanted to.

 

[Next Big Thing]

Woah. Seriously? I had no idea that was part of it. No Fastpass machines at all, and every Fastpass reserved in advance via computer or phone?

There will be kiosks (like the current FP machines) in the park available for people without smart phones to check their accounts.