NextGen / FP+ / Magic Band. The official truth starts to appear

[Yankee Mouse]

could this mean that some merch or food locations could have justified seasonal hours or complete shut downs now that data can be collected as to whether or not people go there?

Don't they already?

 

[TheBeatles]

Don't they already?

in a sense, yes, but it sounds like foot traffic can be tracked closely now and be used as an excuse to keep things closed/seasonal.

let's say that data is collected that shows guests not taking time to stop and look at a certain merchandise cart. would this mean there is a good argument to get rid of it because it's backed by such information?

 

[Mad Stitch]

There is a story about the Magic Band in on ABC News today. It should be interesting to see the comments that are posted from people outside the Disney fan circle.

http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/magicband-disney-park-entry/story?id=18161268

 

[RSoxNo1]

Ok, Ok, Ok. Stop the presses for just a moment.

I am by no means a pixie dust snorter. And I'm certainly no mathematician.

But knowing what we know now about FP+, is it at least possible standby lines will not be as bad as everyone fears?? Just hear me out (and I admit I may have math errors).

We know that (until further notice) everyone will be eligible to get 3 FPs per day. Being someone who knows how to exploit the current system, I can sometimes get 5 or 6 FPs in a full day. Other, less knowledgable guests may get 1 or none.

If I had to guess, I would imagine the overall average number of FP's a guest obtains is about 2 or 3...which is what is being allotted under FP+

By adding FP to more attractions, parades, fireworks and dining, I would bet Disney is doubling or tripling the overall number of FP attractions (yes, including the ones that currently don't "need" FP)

So if overall FP distribution is staying roughly the same (3 per person) and the number of places to use it is doubling or tripling, standby lines should move faster.

The problem with the current FP system is that a majority of guests choose to use their FP on E-Tickets. So Soarin' has a 90 minute standby line and The Seas has none.

We still don't know how the new FP+ system will distribute FPs. But it appears Disney will take away much of our flexibility to choose. (Maybe you'll be able to get a Soarin FP, or maybe only the Seas will be available to you. Or maybe only Illuminations ROE seating) That sounds bad at first, but may actually work to everyone's benefit.

Using the above example and imaginary numbers, could it be possible that instead of distributing 1000 FP for Soarin' and none for The Seas, they give 500 for Soarin and 500 for The Seas.

That will create a much longer standby line for Seas, but also a much shorter line for Soarin'. That would suck for Seas fans and be great for Soarin fans.

But for visitors seeing both attractions (which is probably a majority), the wait times would cancel each other out.

So is it possible with 3 FP+ a guest could visit the same 10 attractions they visit now and wait in line the exact same amount of time as now, but with "walk on" attractions gaining longer standby lines while E-Tickets get shorter lines?

If my math is right, then FP+ will do precisely what many FP opponents want: eliminate the imbalance created by the original FP.

In that case, FP+ will become a pointless but harmless gimmick that Disney can promote. Guests will FEEL like they are getting perk when they breeze past the BTMRR queue with FP+, but then pay the price with a longer Haunted Mansion standby queue and shorter Space Mountain line.

I agree life would be better if FP were gone altogether. But is it possible this system---as they have described it so far--- could make things a little better?

Here's the flaw in your logic. Assuming available fastpasses at each location remains constant or increases then the higher demand attractions like Soarin', Space Mountain, Peter Pan's Flight, Toy Story Mania, etc will still have long lines. The popularity of these attractions won't change and the desire to get on these attractions is greater than the typical standby wait times. This means that the tipping point for when a guest will get in line to ride is higher for these rides than say The Sea with Nemo and Friends. Some people will wait 90 minutes for Soarin', but they won't wait 20 minutes for The Seas with Nemo and Friends.

My hope is that if this stays that only a percentage of Fastpass+ availability will be available for guests booking in advance. Then when guests arrive at the park they will be allowed to acquire additional Fastpasses based on overall availability in the park.

 

[disneyflush]

Will FP+ have the same 1 hour window as the current fastpass system?

 

[kapeman]

Honestly, with the current price of AP's what they are, it's really not a huge loss. The savings between them and two 10 day park hoppers is minimal. The only reason for the AP's anymore are the discounts, and those are becoming less and less.

Unless you can get more than 10 days of park visits out of an AP. We typically can get anywhere from 14-18 days on a set of APs.

 

[captainkidd]

Unless you can get more than 10 days of park visits out of an AP. We typically can get anywhere from 14-18 days on a set of APs.

I do. I get 17 days. But compare the cost:

AP: $611
10 day park hopper: $400
7 day park hopper: $367

So the AP is still cheaper, but only by $156. It used to be A LOT more than that. Point being, compare the cost of a 10 day park hopper to WDW plus an AP for Universal:

10 day park hopper to WDW: $400
AP to Universal: $225

So you can get access to WDW for 10 days and Universal for 1 year for about the same cost of a WDW AP. That was what I was saying. It's beginning to make more and more sense to skip the WDW AP and buy the Universal AP. Also, there's a less expensive option for the Universal AP, that has some blackout dates. Work around that and your savings are even more.

 

[kapeman]

I do. I get 17 days. But compare the cost:

AP: $611
10 day park hopper: $400
7 day park hopper: $367

So the AP is still cheaper, but only by $156. It used to be A LOT more than that. Point being, compare the cost of a 10 day park hopper to WDW plus an AP for Universal:

10 day park hopper to WDW: $400
AP to Universal: $225

....

True, but I add the DVC discount into the cost of the AP.

 

[disneyeater]

I do. I get 17 days. But compare the cost:

AP: $611
10 day park hopper: $400
7 day park hopper: $367

So the AP is still cheaper, but only by $156. It used to be A LOT more than that. Point being, compare the cost of a 10 day park hopper to WDW plus an AP for Universal:

10 day park hopper to WDW: $400
AP to Universal: $225

So you can get access to WDW for 10 days and Universal for 1 year for about the same cost of a WDW AP. That was what I was saying. It's beginning to make more and more sense to skip the WDW AP and buy the Universal AP. Also, there's a less expensive option for the Universal AP, that has some blackout dates. Work around that and your savings are even more.

Are you going 17 days straight? Otherwise you would need to compare to the Non-Expiring 10-day.

 

[captainkidd]

Are you going 17 days straight? Otherwise you would need to compare to the Non-Expiring 10-day.

Nope - 7 days this month and 10 in July.

 

[stevehousse]

Haven't heard to much posted about this, but does anyone know the details for how they will work the RFID bands and photopass+? They mentioned that the pp+ will receive RFID wristbands but how will this work? Will this band only be for holding pictures and nothing else? Do I only get 1 band for our family or does everyone in our party receive one? We want to do the system this year but are very confused at how magic+ will change it?

We are staying off property this year too and we will be there in May. Really hoping the new ff+ system isn't in effect when we go.

 

[ThemeParks4Life]

Haven't heard to much posted about this, but does anyone know the details for how they will work the RFID bands and photopass+? They mentioned that the pp+ will receive RFID wristbands but how will this work? Will this band only be for holding pictures and nothing else? Do I only get 1 band for our family or does everyone in our party receive one? We want to do the system this year but are very confused at how magic+ will change it?

Your band will be your PP ticket too.

 

[mickey2008.1]

The madness of all this. Holy crap!

 

[ParentsOf4]

Here's the flaw in your logic. Assuming available fastpasses at each location remains constant or increases then the higher demand attractions like Soarin', Space Mountain, Peter Pan's Flight, Toy Story Mania, etc will still have long lines. The popularity of these attractions won't change and the desire to get on these attractions is greater than the typical standby wait times. This means that the tipping point for when a guest will get in line to ride is higher for these rides than say The Sea with Nemo and Friends. Some people will wait 90 minutes for Soarin', but they won't wait 20 minutes for The Seas with Nemo and Friends.

My hope is that if this stays that only a percentage of Fastpass+ availability will be available for guests booking in advance. Then when guests arrive at the park they will be allowed to acquire additional Fastpasses based on overall availability in the park.

NextGen and FP+ does not increase ride capacity. It only changes how that capacity is distributed. Since onsite guests eventually will lose Extra Magic Hours (EMH) as part of the opex reduction needed to justify NextGen's cost, onsite guests will need to be compensated with greater access to FP+.

It's already been reported that onsite guests will be able to schedule their FP+ experiences up to 180 days in advance. Other guests will be able to schedule their experiences up to 60 days in advance. Given the number of onsite guests and attractions, onsite guests easily could use the entire capacity of WDW's most popular attractions if this is not capped by Disney. In order to avoid screams from those left out in the cold while not upsetting those who are staying at Deluxe Resorts, IMHO Disney would be wise to allocate each attraction's capacity to certain types of guests. For example:

• Allocate 50% of Space Mountain capacity to the Standby line
• Allocate 20% of Space Mountain capacity to Deluxe Resort guests via FP+
• Allocate 15% of Space Mountain capacity to Moderate Resort guests via FP+
• Allocate 10% of Space Mountain capacity to Value Resort guests via FP+
• Allocate 5% of Space Mountain capacity to day guests via FP+

This example rewards guests who stay at more expensive resorts while allowing WDW to keep up appearances that everyone has equal access to FP+. Since we won't know the actual allocation, we won't have any way to compare notes. We'll simply read posts along the lines "I was able to get a FP+ for Space Mountain after walking into the park." However, as overall trends become more apparent, I suspect we'll find offsite guests are going to be consistently more frustrated with the FP+ options offered to them than onsite guests.

Please don't read this as fact. It only represents current information along with some guesses. FP+ is a huge beast and, even today, I believe Disney is working out the details. This means things are fluid and changing. Once FP+ is deployed, we'll get a better understanding of its initial direction. Beyond that, I fully expect the rules of FP+ to change as Disney figures out what works best. Expect to see a fair amount of FP+ evolution over the next 1-to-2 years.

 

[mickey2008.1]

I have read a lot of pages, but not all. My question is, when will the old FP system be taken out of service and the new FP+ go into full effect?

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

in a sense, yes, but it sounds like foot traffic can be tracked closely now and be used as an excuse to keep things closed/seasonal.

let's say that data is collected that shows guests not taking time to stop and look at a certain merchandise cart. would this mean there is a good argument to get rid of it because it's backed by such information?

It has always been possible to present data in such a way as to give the answer you want.

 

[wdwmagic]

Haven't heard to much posted about this, but does anyone know the details for how they will work the RFID bands and photopass+? They mentioned that the pp+ will receive RFID wristbands but how will this work? Will this band only be for holding pictures and nothing else? Do I only get 1 band for our family or does everyone in our party receive one? We want to do the system this year but are very confused at how magic+ will change it?

We are staying off property this year too and we will be there in May. Really hoping the new ff+ system isn't in effect when we go.

If you get a MagicBand, it can hold all of your tickets - entry tickets, fastpass, and photo pass. As to how many you get if going via the photo package, good question - not sure how that will work yet.

 

[Skyway]

higher demand attractions like Soarin', Space Mountain, Peter Pan's Flight, Toy Story Mania, etc will still have long lines. .

I get what you're saying about someone willing to wait 90 min for Soarin but not 20 for Seas.

But as it stands today, Soarin may have a 90 min standby wait and Seas have zero. Under FP+, Disney could potentially reduce the number of FPs for Soarin and increase them for Seas, driving the Soarin standby wait down to 60 and boosting Seas up to 30. The fact remains you are still standing in line for a total of 90 minutes for the 2 attractions. The average tourist hoping to see both would simply not notice the smoke and mirrors.

Let's get back to my theory: if Disney distributes the same average number of FP's as now (3 per person) and doubles or triples the number of attractions/shows to use those FP's, and then LIMITS THE GUEST'S CHOICE on where they can use those FPs, the overall standby lines should balance out (and not increase)

To prove my theory, turn my math upside down:

Everyone fears that E-Ticket standby lines will remain ridiculously long, and that other "unnecessary FP" attractions (like Seas or HM) will also get new, much longer standby lines.

For that to happen, Disney would have to SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE the number of FPs each guest can obtain.

But they're not. They're only allowing 3 (which is what I assume the average guest gets today)

The only way Space Mountain, HM, Dumbo, and ALL the other new FP attractions can ALL maintain long standby lines is if huge numbers of other guests are holding FP's for ALL of those attractions.

I don't see how that can happen with only 3 FPs per person (and some people choosing or being forced to use some of those 3 FP on fireworks, parades, or characters)

 

[RSoxNo1]

NextGen and FP+ does not increase ride capacity. It only changes how that capacity is distributed. Since onsite guests eventually will lose Extra Magic Hours (EMH) as part of the opex reduction needed to justify NextGen's cost, onsite guests will need to be compensated with greater access to FP+.

It's already been reported that onsite guests will be able to schedule their FP+ experiences up to 180 days in advance. Other guests will be able to schedule their experiences up to 60 days in advance. Given the number of onsite guests and attractions, onsite guests easily could use the entire capacity of WDW's most popular attractions if this is not capped by Disney. In order to avoid screams from those left out in the cold while not upsetting those who are staying at Deluxe Resorts, IMHO Disney would be wise to allocate each attraction's capacity to certain types of guests. For example:

• Allocate 50% of Space Mountain capacity to the Standby line
• Allocate 20% of Space Mountain capacity to Deluxe Resort guests via FP+
• Allocate 15% of Space Mountain capacity to Moderate Resort guests via FP+
• Allocate 10% of Space Mountain capacity to Value Resort guests via FP+
• Allocate 5% of Space Mountain capacity to day guests via FP+

This example rewards guests who stay at more expensive resorts while allowing WDW to keep up appearances that everyone has equal access to FP+. Since we won't know the actual allocation, we won't have any way to compare notes. We'll simply read posts along the lines "I was able to get a FP+ for Space Mountain after walking into the park." However, as overall trends become more apparent, I suspect we'll find offsite guests are going to be consistently more frustrated with the FP+ options offered to them than onsite guests.

Please don't read this as fact. It only represents current information along with some guesses. FP+ is a huge beast and, even today, I believe Disney is working out the details. This means things are fluid and changing. Once FP+ is deployed, we'll get a better understanding of its initial direction. Beyond that, I fully expect the rules of FP+ to change as Disney figures out what works best. Expect to see a fair amount of FP+ evolution over the next 1-to-2 years.

I don't think the percentages will be that complex (or at least that structured). My understanding as well is that current Fastpass distribution is in the 60-70% of capacity. The question I see now is will there be better education on Fastpass+ usage than there is on Fastpass usage. Will Disney and travel agents push the 3-4 Fastpass+ reservations per day on guests that may have otherwise not utilized Fastpass at all, or will usage by limited to those people that know to ask about it.

I think a better way to look at distribution would be as follows:

• Allocate 33% of Fastpass+ distribution capacity to those guests that can book 180 days in advance
• Open an additional 33% of Fastpass+ distribution capacity at 60 days in advance
• Open the remaining 33% of Fastpass+ distribution day of

What this may accomplish is that from 61-180 days 33% of the Soarin' reservations are booked, then at 60 days out if you missed out on a Soarin' reservation you get another chance. Then if you miss out in the 1-60 range, you get a 3rd chance day of. Now I put it out as an even distribution, but personally I would like that distribution to be weighted much more on the "Day of" side of things.

Another component can be that the day of Fastpass+ reservations will only be available for things that traditionally had Fastpass to begin with. This would mean that parade viewing may not be available day of, while Space Mountain is available. Rides that have had this added can run Fastpass+ day of on an as needed basis. The Haunted Mansion shouldn't offer day of Fastpass+ reservations in mid September, but July 4th it's probably a good option.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I get what you're saying about someone willing to wait 90 min for Soarin but not 20 for Seas.

But as it stands today, Soarin may have a 90 min standby wait and Seas have zero. Under FP+, Disney could potentially reduce the number of FPs for Soarin and increase them for Seas, driving the Soarin standby wait down to 60 and boosting Seas up to 30. The fact remains you are still standing in line for a total of 90 minutes for the 2 attractions. The average tourist hoping to see both would simply not notice the smoke and mirrors.

Let's get back to my theory: if Disney distributes the same average number of FP's as now (3 per person) and doubles or triples the number of attractions/shows to use those FP's, and then LIMITS THE GUEST'S CHOICE on where they can use those FPs, the overall standby lines should balance out (and not increase)

To prove my theory, turn my math upside down:

Everyone fears that E-Ticket standby lines will remain ridiculously long, and that other "unnecessary FP" attractions (like Seas or HM) will also get new, much longer standby lines.

For that to happen, Disney would have to SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE the number of FPs each guest can obtain.

But they're not. They're only allowing 3 (which is what I assume the average guest gets today)

The only way Space Mountain, HM, Dumbo, and ALL the other new FP attractions can ALL maintain long standby lines is if huge numbers of other guests are holding FP's for ALL of those attractions.

I don't see how that can happen with only 3 FPs per person (and some people choosing or being forced to use some of those 3 FP on fireworks, parades, or characters)

The problem is people don't always think these things through logically. People don't always think, "I can see both attractions in 110 minutes." Yes, 55 minutes (average wait) for Soarin isn't horrible, but then weighted against 55 minutes for Seas with Nemo is way too high for some people. Consider the following:

Likelihood I would ride an attraction:
Soarin'
10 Minutes - 100%
20 Minutes - 90%
30 Minutes - 80%
40 Minutes - 70%
50 Minutes - 60%
60 Minutes - 50%

The Seas with Nemo and Friends
Walk on - 100%
10 Minutes - 90%
20 Minutes - 60%
30 Minutes - 30%
40 Minutes - 10%
50 Minutes - 5%
60 Minutes - 0%

Under the current system I get a Fastpass for Soarin' and get on Soarin' and The Seas on most days in under 30 minutes. So if the line for The Seas increases, I'm more likely to skip that attraction in favor of something like Soarin' where I'm more willing to wait in a longer line.