Magic Kingdom set to break attendance records next week? 7am to 3am operating hours!

[jt04]

Not to harp on the same thing, but I'm just trying to understand, you avoid a thread because you don't comment on experts or analysts conjecture.

But you posted in this thread, which is a thread about forecasting attendance figures at MK, which is....."conjecture?". They could break attendance records or they could not.

Do you agree with Disney's own analysts and experts conjecture and disagree with outside experts and analysts conjecture?

Technically speaking, experts and analysts forecasting is not "conjecture," as conjecture is making suppositions based on presumptions and guesswork. Experts and analysts, good ones anyway, devote hours upon hours of research when making their forecasts. They do make some presumptions and guesses, but they are only made in the context of extrapolating trends, survey research, consensus methods, simulations, etc., etc., etc.

Do you believe Disney's own attendance forecasting methods are purely presumptions, guesswork, and "conjecture?" Or do you just believe the outside analysts and experts methods are purely conjecture?

You are astoundingly confusing in your posts.

Steve posted this thread and I trust him. He has never claimed to be an analyst and I believe his judgement is sound.

I don't have a problems with analysts per se, I have just found that there are intuitive aspects to projecting trends that are usually ignored by numbers crunchers. How many stories on the news start out with the phrase, "Experts (or analysts) were suprised when..........."? :brick:

There is also a horrible trend where people fit the data to conform to a pre-determined outcome. Ths is dangerous and is becoming way to common. Truth can't be subjective by it's very definition. Hence people can say with a straight face things like, "it's colder this winter because of global warming". :lookaroun



Now, where did I leave my critical thinking skills?

 

[RSoxNo1]

I love a great thrill ride, but I think each of the parks could use an additional family friendly (ideally high capacity) E-Ticket. Little Mermaid would serve that purpose for the Magic Kingdom.

 

[SoccerMickey]

This is nice offering for guests but like Captain Michael posted earlier its not a lot of time for routine maintenance upkeep that needs to happen in the off hours, not to mention the hiring freeze that Walt Disney World has been doing for the past 7 months will really come back to bite them as I know of someone from Jungle Cruise got let go today due to attendance and another Adventureland manager was just let go this week. This will really start to take its toll on people's schedules.

 

[Missing20K]

Steve posted this thread and I trust him. He has never claimed to be an analyst and I believe his judgement is sound.

I don't have a problems with analysts per se, I have just found that there are intuitive aspects to projecting trends that are usually ignored by numbers crunchers. How many stories on the news start out with the phrase, "Experts (or analysts) were suprised when..........."? :brick:

There is also a horrible trend where people fit the data to conform to a pre-determined outcome. Ths is dangerous and is becoming way to common. Truth can't be subjective by it's very definition. Hence people can say with a straight face things like, "it's colder this winter because of global warming". :lookaroun


Now, where did I leave my critical thinking skills?

You amaze me with your ability to completely ignore any questions posed to you. It's truly amazing. I asked you simply whether you believe one analyst or expert, and not another, and you answer by saying the moderator of this forum is not an analyst and you trust his judgement?

Again, I'll ask you up front. Do you believe that Disney's own forecasts for attendance? That they are based on intuition? Or based on years and years of experience and knowledge and research? Or some combination of the two perhaps?

You can't have it both ways. Disney themselves have predicted a decline in overall attendance this year, and also that attendance for the Easter week will be higher than normal. Which do you believe? Are Disney's attendance projections correct, or aren't they?


EDIT: What does any one's beliefs about global warming have anything to do with the counterpoints I presented to you?

Truth is not as objective as you may want to believe, regardless of the dictionary definition of the word. Quantum mechanics has a heck of a time with that. I assume you never read any Nietzsche or Foucault, or anything else about the subjectivity of truth.


Not a fan of the underhanded insult to my critical thinking skills. I don't care if it was a joke or not. I, unlike yourself, can easily think and respond critically, point by point, to questions posed to me, not just ignore any question or idea that threatens my way of thinking :wave:

By the way, read Kevin Yee's article today???

 

[blackthidot]

May God bless all the CM's.

 

[resjr1]

Parks are busy and people are spending thet are just not spending on snow globes and high end stuff the stuff they are buying is stuff they can use!
I have been at parks and Downtown Disnet they are pack and people are buying.
I also have on good resource that almost all stores and restraunts ar making there budget and then some
DISNEY ARE DOOM DAY scareing the cast and making them think the bottum has fallen out
Disney is not always known to tell the TRUTH:fork:

 

[MousDad]

By the way, read Kevin Yee's article today???

...which raised some interesting points, about which some interesting conversation is happening here: http://forums.wdwmagic.com/showthread.php?t=424486

 

[castevens]

May God bless all the CM's.

They are going to need that. And then some.

Corrected: May God bless the all the CM's that are still remaining, but will be taking on larger crowds than last year's larger staff...

 

[DisneyEverest]

Imagine being at the parks that late?

 

[CaptainMichael]

Imagine being at the parks that late?

1 am is nothing. I've been at the MK every hour of the day...in a row.:dazzle:

 

[SirGoofy]

1 am is nothing. I've been at the MK every hour of the day...in a row.:dazzle:

YAY Grad Nights!:brick:

 

[CaptainMichael]

YAY Grad Nights!:brick:

Nope, 27 hours for New Years Eve:snore:

 

[SirGoofy]

Nope, 27 hours for New Years Eve:snore:

Ah fun. I was done by 2 New Years.

But what was fun was sleeping in my car for 2 hours after Grad Nights in order to get double back.

 

[WDW1974]

The hours on at least 5 days next week for regular guests (no EMH) are 8am till 1am (not 8 - 12 as you say). Those are long hours by anyone's book.

Great. I will take your word on the extra hour. Yes, those are very long days.

Personally, I don't see how anyone could possibly ever find enough to do at today's MK to last a day like that.

But, again, I get bored with the place after 4-5 hours usually unless I am with friends/family.

Of course, you don't mention EPCOT's hours or the other parks.

Including EMH, on several days over the next few weeks they are 7am till 3am.

Again, my reaction is just so what? Disney has done crazy long hours like that since installing EMHs at night during Easter and Christmas among other times.

On the one hand you seem to really want to give TDO kudos for the long hours at ONE park during Spring Break at the same time they are laying off CMs as fast as they can.

And you -- and not one other poster -- has responded to my point about what the OLC is doing with their Disney Resort in these tough times ... something that adds quality and value to a visit for ALL guests, while keeping their CM ranks constant (and they're much higher to begin with since they've not gone thru the years of cutting that WDW has).

And I didnt just leap to a conclusion of the record falling - there are people within Disney upper levels who are expecting it to happen.

So what? Again, people at Disney expected dire times in 2009 ... in some ways that's been true, but largely discounting has stemmed that tide.

Now some people are telling you a 'record' may fall ...

I have to ask one simple question, let's say the MK breaks an attendance record over Spring Break (and you haven't qualified it by saying whether it will be an all-time daily MK record, which I'll guarantee you won't happen here and now, or an Easter record or a record for the week before the holiday etc ... in other words there's no context for your statement) what do you think that means?

~Remember the WDW Easter Parade?~

 

[blackthidot]

Id love MK to be open till 3am while I was there...

 

[WDW1974]

I think it is also worth putting in perspective with Universal. For next week they are doing 9am to 9pm at both of their parks.

MK 8am to 1am (7am EMH to 3am EMH)
Studios 9am to 10pm (9am to 1am EMH)

If you want to compare UNI with WDW, then we can start comparing the money UNI is investing on major new attractions and experiences for guests during this severe economic disaster too.

You think Disney comes out of that one looking good?

The new mega coaster for summer at UNI. The WWoHP next year ... a whole land based on one of the most popular franchises in the world today. Hell, while Disney has killed PI and left it a ghost town and is about to have another HUGE hole when Virgin shuts down, even City Walk is gaining new tenants.

UNI has, to my recollection, never kept its parks open later than 9 or 10 p.m. this time of year. So 9-9 sounds pretty traditional.

Again, I'm not trying to be difficult, but I don't get what your point is ... unless it's simply you can have more hours at MK than at UNI and I, obviously, agree.

And you have to leave EMHs out of the equation because those aren't regular operating hours for regular guests.

~Is anyone getting this?~

 

[WDW1974]

MOST? Sorry, no, at least not in my experience. About half? Probably and possibly.

I am speaking from my experience as a travel agency owner.

There are many times we try and get discounts for our clients for certain dates and certain resorts and they aren't available - so either the client books at rack rate, or moves to a different resort.

Most people aren't even aware of many of the discounts - many call Disney, ask for a package, and book it - and Disney won't offer them a discounted room unless the guest knows about it already or asks for it.

Free Dining? Nothing new - its been offered every August/September since 2005 - so I doubt it will hurt anything more than previous years - its getting people to book the rooms - AT RACK RATE.

All I can say is the number is higher than 50% ... not all dates, but most.

The majority of people who aren't getting a discount are not getting it because they are demanding a certain resort and are 100% inflexible on their dates.

Every day the percentage staying on discounts ebbs and flows, but it is a huge amount vs. almost any other year.

~WDW Resorts: Magic Discounted Nightly!~

 

[crazydaveh]

So anyway, I'm sure the locals are contributing heavily to these crowds.

Depends on your perception of "local." Most people in the Orlando area honestly stay away from the attractions the week before and after Easter. Traffic is insane with people from all over coming to visit the parks. We have the luxury of going anytime we want, so many of us choose to go in the cooler, off season times of January and February as well as other slow months.

If we have family in town, then yes, we'll probably go with them to the parks, but will know what is to be expected crowd wise.

People who live an hour or two outside of Orlando might come down, as it's more of a "mini vacation" for them.

As to why they spread out our spring breaks here, honestly have no clue.

 

[DisneySaint]

Good thing those layoffs were justified.

 

[brucie]

Yes but even if it breaks attendance records of some sort are they going to have a better April this year then last year? Probably not. Way less discounts last year, and in the end that's what they will look at.