jt04
Well-Known Member
It is all a guessing game, as has been proven. Of course my projections were correct and I don't even get paid for my guesses. :ROFLOL:
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Magic Kingdom set to break attendance records next week? 7am to 3am operating hours!
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
It is all a guessing game, as has been proven. Of course my projections were correct and I don't even get paid for my guesses. :ROFLOL:
Pioneer Hall
Well-Known Member
Then I guess you should be working for them and are obviously qualified to do so. I know that forcasters from every industry, just look out the window and make guesses on what is going to happen.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Experience will fix that. I used to take the "experts" seriously but then I found they are wrong much more than right. So I learned from that.
CaptainMichael
Well-Known Member
It's pretty much open nonstop during New Years.
SirGoofy
Member
Yup. Those are some crraaaazzzyyyyy nights to work.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Like I said, conjecture is just that. Not saying they aren't well intentioned. Just that conjecture and consensus should never be confused as fact. I can tell you are young. Life will learn you some truth.:lol:
Pioneer Hall
Well-Known Member
Not too young...and definitely not stupid. I know how the world works and I know that forecasts are not always right either. However, you are saying that they are completely wrong on something that is showing to be true. Spending is down, whether you want to think so or not. If it wasn't down then they would have no problem charging people rack rates and getting the rooms filled. Forget what the forecasts are even saying, you would have to be blind to not see how Disney is actually in a situation where it needs to watch its finances.
Just because you have seen wrong forecasts doesn't mean that people are lying to you, and E-tickets should be popping up from the ground. Attendance numbers mean nothing right now. Listen to the earnings calls and what the corporate officers actually say. Tom Staggs (the Disney CFO if you weren't sure) did a talk at the UBS conference this past December saying that attendance for quarter one would be down about 6% based on internal forecasts. Guess what...they were down about 6% in actuality too. Guess Staggs and his team of craps dealing forecasters aren't earning their paychecks based on this.
Don't sit and tell me I am young because I might listen to a forecast now and then. I never said that you should take them as fact or that you shouldn't be skeptical about them. But I sit and research this stuff as much as anyone else on this board (and probably more), and I also do happen to speak to people from within the company. Watch what you say before you jump to conclusions and grab your shovel to build an E-ticket attraction from the filled hotel rooms.
goodtimes5286
New Member
I found this kinda late, but from going through all 5 pages I have a couple comments.
Yes DT is building attractions AND getting record attendance AND going through the global recession. The main reasons is these attractions, there a huge draw. We just keep getting excuse after excuse from our management team and people keep backing them up. How many times are they gonna have to do this before you realize that they're going about things the wrong way. Build it and they will come.
2nd you dont NEED both high amount of guests AND high spending. It's like the classic hotel debate, would you rather have higher ADR or higher Occupancy. A higher ADR will give you the max money you can get out of each guests but a low number of them, high occupancy everyone knows what that is. In a global recession you wont be able to get both, and in my opinion, what they are doing with occupancy is the smartest solution.
The highest cost to a theme park is obviously personel cost (nothing new), so the staff are already there (atleast the skeleton), the raising in staffing i dont believe (correct me if im wrong) goes up THAT much from how many are on normally, what like 10-20%? So since you already HAVE to pay your highest fixed cost, why dont you take full advantage of it and max out profit? That's what disney is doing, putting there employees that are already on the clock to work by jamming the theme park full and trying to snag as much FOB and merchandise money as possible. Yes it is a fact that many people are spending less at the parks, but there STILL SPENDING and that's what Disney needs to and IS taking advantage of right now.
3rd I think it's 6 in one hand half dozen in the other. Either disney can take less money by discounting to get people in OR take that same amount of money, make there product BETTER which will, in turn, attract more visitors. As the economy changes so does the stragity, and I personally think they're choosing the right one for this atmosphere (although I think they should do a little of both)
4th The thing most people dont know is that Disney is one of like 3-5 companys to make $5 on every $1 they spend.....yes...FIVE TO ONE. So the main issue here ISN'T low attendance or spending, its GREED. Disney is going to STILL try to blead the consumer dry EVEN during these bad economic times, they arent suffering by any streach of the imagination. A profit of 2 to 1 is enough to stay in bussiness, actually you can keep your bussiness running PERFECTLY with that kind of profit margin. BUT disney is cutting back on everything to maintain that 5-1, why cant they just take a look at the economy and that the year or 2 hit on there dividends and bonuses? I know for a FACT if people knew that the higher ups made with there salary AND bonuses AND stock dividends NO ONE would be saying that disney is hurting, mobs would be wanting to set that sucker ablaze :fork:
Yes DT is building attractions AND getting record attendance AND going through the global recession. The main reasons is these attractions, there a huge draw. We just keep getting excuse after excuse from our management team and people keep backing them up. How many times are they gonna have to do this before you realize that they're going about things the wrong way. Build it and they will come.
2nd you dont NEED both high amount of guests AND high spending. It's like the classic hotel debate, would you rather have higher ADR or higher Occupancy. A higher ADR will give you the max money you can get out of each guests but a low number of them, high occupancy everyone knows what that is. In a global recession you wont be able to get both, and in my opinion, what they are doing with occupancy is the smartest solution.
The highest cost to a theme park is obviously personel cost (nothing new), so the staff are already there (atleast the skeleton), the raising in staffing i dont believe (correct me if im wrong) goes up THAT much from how many are on normally, what like 10-20%? So since you already HAVE to pay your highest fixed cost, why dont you take full advantage of it and max out profit? That's what disney is doing, putting there employees that are already on the clock to work by jamming the theme park full and trying to snag as much FOB and merchandise money as possible. Yes it is a fact that many people are spending less at the parks, but there STILL SPENDING and that's what Disney needs to and IS taking advantage of right now.
3rd I think it's 6 in one hand half dozen in the other. Either disney can take less money by discounting to get people in OR take that same amount of money, make there product BETTER which will, in turn, attract more visitors. As the economy changes so does the stragity, and I personally think they're choosing the right one for this atmosphere (although I think they should do a little of both)
4th The thing most people dont know is that Disney is one of like 3-5 companys to make $5 on every $1 they spend.....yes...FIVE TO ONE. So the main issue here ISN'T low attendance or spending, its GREED. Disney is going to STILL try to blead the consumer dry EVEN during these bad economic times, they arent suffering by any streach of the imagination. A profit of 2 to 1 is enough to stay in bussiness, actually you can keep your bussiness running PERFECTLY with that kind of profit margin. BUT disney is cutting back on everything to maintain that 5-1, why cant they just take a look at the economy and that the year or 2 hit on there dividends and bonuses? I know for a FACT if people knew that the higher ups made with there salary AND bonuses AND stock dividends NO ONE would be saying that disney is hurting, mobs would be wanting to set that sucker ablaze :fork:
slappy magoo
Well-Known Member
ON behalf of all of us, thanks for spending almost all of that 48 hours you'll never get back with US instead of your children! They'll never appreciate you on the ohsomany levels you occupy.
I hope one day my imagination is as good as yours. That's an awesome fantasy life you dreamed up for yoruself.
jt04
Well-Known Member
I never called you stupid or accused anyone of lying. And I also didn't tell you not to take seriously anyone you care to. I was asked why I didn't believe the projections. I explained why. That is all. And the "young" comment had one of these :lol: so that means it was a joke :brick:
Age is not just chrononlogical :lookaroun
While I would really love one or two more E-tickets for the sake of the park and its ever expanding need to be able to handle more guests and to relieve the congestion in Fantasyland I think they need to put as many omnimover style dark rides on the 20k plot as possible as well as another TS restaurant. Attractions like HM and SSE can eat vast amounts of guests with very minimal staffing. There are plenty of franchises with little or no representation in the parks (Little Mermaid, Aladin, Alice In Wonderland, etc) that could be put in them.
Actually age is chronological. It is maturity that is not.
jt04
Well-Known Member
I have been thanking that they need a new street that runs from Ariels meet and greet over the old 20K plot to the back of Toontown. There is plenty of room for all the additions you suggest and still be a fairly wide street. Kinda like main street but curved. They could also create a "T" junction and move the train station to north of this new street instead of toontown. It could really help spread out the crowds. They really need to do something major like that.
castevens
Member
Yeah, that would make a ton of sense. And a dark ride with a big warehouse back can fit there being on the outskirts of the park. Although once these plots are filled in, they're limiting how far they can go out beyond the current boundaries of the park without having long "hallways" to get people by the backs of the current buildings. But they can't worry about that "problem" until they fill in the current openings, such as 20K
Saintsfan75
Member
1 question, what dates are they talking about? We are going there from 4/11 thru 4/17. My kid's Easter break is the week after Easter.
SirGoofy
Member
I agree, but I think MK desperately needs another thrill ride, along with two more dark rides. I definitely think there is enough room for all of that at the 20K plot.
Pioneer Hall
Well-Known Member
More likely next week since the bulk of schools have next week and part of the following week off. The crowds you are going to see might not be record breaking most likely, but things will be very crowded.
Missing20K
Well-Known Member
Not to harp on the same thing, but I'm just trying to understand, you avoid a thread because you don't comment on experts or analysts conjecture.
But you posted in this thread, which is a thread about forecasting attendance figures at MK, which is....."conjecture?". They could break attendance records or they could not.
Do you agree with Disney's own analysts and experts conjecture and disagree with outside experts and analysts conjecture?
Technically speaking, experts and analysts forecasting is not "conjecture," as conjecture is making suppositions based on presumptions and guesswork. Experts and analysts, good ones anyway, devote hours upon hours of research when making their forecasts. They do make some presumptions and guesses, but they are only made in the context of extrapolating trends, survey research, consensus methods, simulations, etc., etc., etc.
Do you believe Disney's own attendance forecasting methods are purely presumptions, guesswork, and "conjecture?" Or do you just believe the outside analysts and experts methods are purely conjecture?
You are astoundingly confusing in your posts.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Yes, yes you are.
MK is insane when it comes to eating when crowds are fairly low (especially if one "Bay" at Cosmic Ray's is down :dazzle
. I'd hate to be there when it's crowded now. I don't care if they add an Q ticket attraction, they need one that has a high hourly capacity and fast. Adventureland Veranda is big, has a kitchen and exists already. It hasn't been used since the late 90s (when Pecos Bill's was down for a refurb), but I'm sure some good scrubbing and some kind of a menu would do wonders for the park's dining capacity.
Edit: Imagine how it's going to be from April 19 to July 1st when HoP and SM refurbs overlap!
Tony's used to serve breakfast to the pubic. Can we have that back so I don't have to run to the bakery first thing in the morning?