Lines at the FP+ entrances

[ParentsOf4]

Didn't say that at all, but two dimensional pictures don't tell any depth story and also doesn't even begin to explain why it is that way, even if it is. You folks are just looking for an instant scape goat and that is FP+ regardless of what is actually happening. So in that respect, yes pictures with no detail are in some ways fake. They only tell what you want them to tell.

Many are reporting generally longer FP+ lines. There is something going on.

The longer FP+ lines might be the result of one or more factors:

1. FP+ are being redeemed at a higher rate. (More on this in a moment.)
2. Disney is distributing more FP+ than FP.
3. FP+ is slower to redeem than FP.
4. The FP+ distribution algorithm is less sophisticated than the FP distribution algorithm, resulting in lumpier distribution.

I suspect part of the problem right now is that Disney is overdistributing FP+. They are handing out too many. This doesn't mean they are handing out more FP+ than they did FP; it means a higher percentage of guests are redeeming their FP+ selections.

Consider that one of the primary business objectives of MyMagic+ is to get guests to preplan their vacations. As such, FP+ might have a higher redemption rate than FP. That means potentially more guests in FP+ lines.

Unless Disney intends these longer FP+ lines to be permanent, it might be necessary for Disney to reduce the number of FP+ being distributed.

 

[lentesta]

Many are reporting generally longer FP+ lines. There is something going on.

The longer FP+ lines might be the result of one or more factors:

1. FP+ are being redeemed at a higher rate. (More on this in a moment.)
2. Disney is distributing more FP+ than FP.
3. FP+ is slower to redeem than FP.
4. The FP+ distribution algorithm is less sophisticated than the FP distribution algorithm, resulting in lumpier distribution.

-snip-

You may be on to something. So if the average guest used to redeem between 0.7 and 1.5 FPs per park, and now they're redeeming 2.something, that might be an impact.

I'm going to see if we can time these lines.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Many are reporting generally longer FP+ lines. There is something going on.

The longer FP+ lines might be the result of one or more factors:

1. FP+ are being redeemed at a higher rate. (More on this in a moment.)
2. Disney is distributing more FP+ than FP.
3. FP+ is slower to redeem than FP.
4. The FP+ distribution algorithm is less sophisticated than the FP distribution algorithm, resulting in lumpier distribution.

I suspect part of the problem right now is that Disney is overdistributing FP+. They are handing out too many. This doesn't mean they are handing out more FP+ than they did FP; it means a higher percentage of guests are redeeming their FP+ selections.

Consider that one of the primary business objectives of MyMagic+ is to get guests to preplan their vacations. As such, FP+ might have a higher redemption rate than FP. That means potentially more guests in FP+ lines.

Unless Disney intends these longer FP+ lines to be permanent, it might be necessary for Disney to reduce the number of FP+ being distributed.

Another point that I forgot was that a long line does not necessarily translate into a long wait. There was a long line at SSE, but you could go through the entire double side sway lines in around 20 minutes. I don't doubt that there have been lines, but I have been around long enough to know that if it weren't for exaggeration there would be no discussion threads at all and everyone has agenda's. If they have a reason to not want FP+ to work, we, as part of the human race will spin incidents to support our own agenda's.

I can only go by what I experienced and it was nothing like what has been reported. Oh, yea... there was a long line at both the standby and FP lines for Test Track, but, the ride was, as usual, broken down. Long line, looked awful, but, had nothing to do with FP+.

 

[flynnibus]

The longer FP+ lines might be the result of one or more factors:

Thx for retyping things so I don't have to. My patience has worn thin with all the repetition and I'm channeling you to speak for me

 

[ParentsOf4]

You may be on to something. So if the average guest used to redeem between 0.7 and 1.5 FPs per park, and now they're redeeming 2.something, that might be an impact.

I'm going to see if we can time these lines.

What I'm driving at is a subtle effect on the lines for attractions that previously had FP.

Let's use TSM as an example.

With FP, TSM return times often were distributed by mid-morning. Let's say I arrived at the TSM FP distribution kiosk at 10:00 AM. My return time might not be until 7:00 PM or later. I might get FP ticket for TSM but, realistically, what are the chances I still will be in DHS at 7:00 PM?

Now, let's compare that to FP+.

With FP+, I've selected my return time before I arrived. Even if I end up with that same 7:00 PM FP+ return time, I'm more likely to plan my day around it. Maybe sleep in. Maybe spend time at a water park. Maybe spend the morning at another theme park.

As Disney wants, I can plan my day around my FP+ selections before I leave home. In doing so, I'm more likely to redeem them.

The point is, even if the same number of FP+ are being distributed as was done in the past for FP, it's possible that more guests are actually using their FP+ selections.

FP+ lines might be longer for the simple reason that more guests are in those lines.

Conversely, what I observed during Thanksgiving week was a different phenomenon. There appeared to be a pattern to it. It was something that occurred at the top of the hour on several attractions. At (say) 2 PM, the line for BTMRR would grow long but by the second half of the hour, the FP+ line was back to normal.

I don't know if it's still happening, but here's the thread I started on it.

This is what a FastPass+ line looks like

 

[Mr Bill]

Many are reporting generally longer FP+ lines. There is something going on.

The longer FP+ lines might be the result of one or more factors:

1. FP+ are being redeemed at a higher rate. (More on this in a moment.)
2. Disney is distributing more FP+ than FP.
3. FP+ is slower to redeem than FP.
4. The FP+ distribution algorithm is less sophisticated than the FP distribution algorithm, resulting in lumpier distribution.

I suspect part of the problem right now is that Disney is overdistributing FP+. They are handing out too many. This doesn't mean they are handing out more FP+ than they did FP; it means a higher percentage of guests are redeeming their FP+ selections.

Consider that one of the primary business objectives of MyMagic+ is to get guests to preplan their vacations. As such, FP+ might have a higher redemption rate than FP. That means potentially more guests in FP+ lines.

Unless Disney intends these longer FP+ lines to be permanent, it might be necessary for Disney to reduce the number of FP+ being distributed.

If I had to place money on any of the options, I'd start with #3 as a primary reason, followed by a combination of 1 and 2. Time for some anecdotal evidence:

I've seen numerous times where a large party is at a FP return and one person at the front has all the park tickets. They sit there and tap them all against the podium one by one. With Legacy FP, the equivalent of this would be one person walking up with six or seven Fastpasses and then everyone moving forward in 2 seconds instead of 20. That seems small but it adds up over time.

As for 1 and 2, I had a personal experience with this last night. I was at the Magic Kingdom for the evening, got there around 7 PM and they were open until 1 AM. With the old system, I might have gotten one Fastpass for something with Mountain in the name depending on the line. But with FP+ I really saw no reason not to go ahead and get three Fastpasses. The pickings were pretty slim at that hour, and a good number of attractions had waits around 15 minutes or so, but since I had the Fastpasses I went ahead and used them anyway. I'm not a fan of the new Mansion queue so using FP+ to bypass it was fine with me. In the end I ended up obtaining and redeeming three Fastpasses when on a similar trip in the past I might have used one.

Let's be honest though, this experience is not that of the typical park guest.

 

[wdisney9000]

, but two dimensional pictures don't tell any depth story and also doesn't even begin to explain why it is that way, even .

your original posted sated that you simply did not see the lines at fp entrance. It made no mention of dimensional depth and back story that was required for your approval of belief. I was just pointing out that lines have indeed formed. nothing more.

You folks are just looking for an instant scape goat and that is FP+.

Who is, "you folks"? I was unaware I had joined a group. And scapegoat? For what exactly? My recent visit was great. I even mentioned FP+ wasn't anything that could/would affect the way we tour the parks. I understand though, because I'm not a fan of it and personally see no value in it, I'm "one of those folks".

 

[Goofyernmost]

your original posted sated that you simply did not see the lines at fp entrance. It made no mention of dimensional depth and back story that was required for your approval of belief. I was just pointing out that lines have indeed formed. nothing more.

Who is, "you folks"? I was unaware I had joined a group. And scapegoat? For what exactly? My recent visit was great. I even mentioned FP+ wasn't anything that could/would affect the way we tour the parks. I understand though, because I'm not a fan of it and personally see no value in it, I'm "one of those folks".

Well, since we were in a discussion on the effects that FP+ was having on lines, to have the information stating that lines are very long at that particular time, kind of infers that we were still talking about FP+ affect on them. Sorry, I didn't know you were not really participating in that discussion.

Anyway, I wasn't necessarily speaking directly to you about "you folks", but, there was no way to word it and leave you out, because the context lead me to believe that you were "one of them". Forgive me if I was wrong.

Do you know why the lines were excessively long? If not, what was the point if not to point an accusing finger and not explain why.

 

[Space Mountain]

Many are reporting generally longer FP+ lines. There is something going on.

The longer FP+ lines might be the result of one or more factors:

1. FP+ are being redeemed at a higher rate. (More on this in a moment.)
2. Disney is distributing more FP+ than FP.
3. FP+ is slower to redeem than FP.
4. The FP+ distribution algorithm is less sophisticated than the FP distribution algorithm, resulting in lumpier distribution.

I suspect part of the problem right now is that Disney is overdistributing FP+. They are handing out too many. This doesn't mean they are handing out more FP+ than they did FP; it means a higher percentage of guests are redeeming their FP+ selections.

Consider that one of the primary business objectives of MyMagic+ is to get guests to preplan their vacations. As such, FP+ might have a higher redemption rate than FP. That means potentially more guests in FP+ lines.

Unless Disney intends these longer FP+ lines to be permanent, it might be necessary for Disney to reduce the number of FP+ being distributed.

The funny thing is, everyone is complaining that they are not receiving enough Fastpasses. But the reports the following day show that, depending on the attraction, on average 40% - 60% of initial selections get redeemed.

MK needs more than 3.
Epcot - You only need one.. Test Track or Soarin
DHS - Three is fine, one additional FP would be nice..
DAK - Three is perfect

The amount of Fastpasses being available daily has a maximum value of what was previously set in Legacy FP. Some attractions have lowered that number due to multiple variables, including low redemption percentages.

FP Redemption lines are extremely efficient. Guests on the other hand are not. Its much simpler for a computer to process a FP in less than a second, and verify that each one is correct, than it would take for a CM to visually scan each Legacy FP ticket. It seemed quicker before because CMs were not verifying each ticket, only the one on top. Guests slow the line down when they don't realize what the line is for, not creating selections, or coming early/late and fighting with the CMs for access.

 

[JimboJones123]

I suppose the myriad of pictures that have been taken of long FP lines are all fake.

Star Tours FP was backed up past the Indy entrance when we went by once today and just shy of that 2 other times.

 

[JerseyDad]

What I'm driving at is a subtle effect on the lines for attractions that previously had FP.

Let's use TSM as an example.

With FP, TSM return times often were distributed by mid-morning. Let's say I arrived at the TSM FP distribution kiosk at 10:00 AM. My return time might not be until 7:00 PM or later. I might get FP ticket for TSM but, realistically, what are the chances I still will be in DHS at 7:00 PM?

Now, let's compare that to FP+.

With FP+, I've selected my return time before I arrived. Even if I end up with that same 7:00 PM FP+ return time, I'm more likely to plan my day around it. Maybe sleep in. Maybe spend time at a water park. Maybe spend the morning at another theme park.

As Disney wants, I can plan my day around my FP+ selections before I leave home. In doing so, I'm more likely to redeem them.

The point is, even if the same number of FP+ are being distributed as was done in the past for FP, it's possible that more guests are actually using their FP+ selections.

FP+ lines might be longer for the simple reason that more guests are in those lines.

Conversely, what I observed during Thanksgiving week was a different phenomenon. There appeared to be a pattern to it. It was something that occurred at the top of the hour on several attractions. At (say) 2 PM, the line for BTMRR would grow long but by the second half of the hour, the FP+ line was back to normal.

I don't know if it's still happening, but here's the thread I started on it.

This is what a FastPass+ line looks like

....so ...is what you are saying: FP+ wasn't a Disney innovation that was intended to get you thru the FP line at a greater rate of speed.

....it's real purpose is to simply GET a larger contingent of guests on the rides of thier choice ...WHILE ...making said guests spend more time in the affiliated park in order to use said FP+.....??

 

[OnyxNine]

Will be crazy if disney just got rid of the fast pass system

 

[asialeigh]

Are Blue Mickeys at the front gates becoming more and more of a problem?

Out of the combined 16 entries we have had in the last week, we have gotten 11.

Mine has not worked a single time. I get tired of being asked if I am "really sure this is the finger I always use?" I have been reconfigured each time, but I still get the additional DisTSA screening including my name, a look at the ID, request for when my last park entry was and at which park.

The 4-6 second entry is taking me between 2-4 minutes each time.

Why don't they just put pictures on the APs like the grown up parks like Cedar Point andSix Flags?

Because that was done in the past and there was still a lot of trouble with guests scamming and using other peoples APs, so that wouldn't really solve anything.

 

[wdisney9000]

I wasn't necessarily speaking directly to you about "you folks", but, there was no way to word it and leave you out, because the context lead me to believe that you were "one of them". Forgive me if I was wrong.

I do not like MM+ and I believe it is a huge waste of money. If that means Im "one of them", I can live with that. I can still enjoy WDW. Its also ok with me that other people LOVE it. If (they think) it makes their vacation better, then I say go for it and who cares what I or anybody else has to say.

MM+ is about one thing only, and its not guest enhancement. I seriously wonder if there is a room full of executives who just laugh their off all day every day at "those people" who blindly believe and defend the crap they (Disney) sold them is anything other than the same old product in the form of an app. lol

 

[wdisney9000]

Because that was done in the past and there was still a lot of trouble with guests scamming and using other peoples APs, so that wouldn't really solve anything.

So over the last 15 years (or whenever they stopped issuing AP's with pictures), Disneys efforts to prevent user fraud have culminated in the "CM raises hand to call over a different CM with an Ipad to rescan your AP, ask you questions and then reset your AP" system? Sweet advancement!

 

[Lucky]

FP Redemption lines are extremely efficient. Guests on the other hand are not. Its much simpler for a computer to process a FP in less than a second, and verify that each one is correct, than it would take for a CM to visually scan each Legacy FP ticket. It seemed quicker before because CMs were not verifying each ticket, only the one on top. Guests slow the line down when they don't realize what the line is for, not creating selections, or coming early/late and fighting with the CMs for access.

So why did they design and implement a system that would work well only if all guests suddenly became more knowledgeable and cooperative?

You have to design systems for the imperfect guests you have. If you don't, that's a design failure.

 

[ParentsOf4]

....so ...is what you are saying: FP+ wasn't a Disney innovation that was intended to get you thru the FP line at a greater rate of speed.

....it's real purpose is to simply GET a larger contingent of guests on the rides of thier choice ...WHILE ...making said guests spend more time in the affiliated park in order to use said FP+.....??

There's nothing inherit in FastPass+ that will make someone stay in a park longer. At least at Epcot, DHS, and DAK, guests can make 3 FP+ selections and be done with those parks rather quickly. (Although attraction tiering at DHS and Epcot puts a damper on that.)

With (for example) 3 evening FP+ selections for TSM, TOT, and STII, then why spend the morning in any WDW theme park? Why not sleep in? Or go shopping? Or hang out by the pool? Or head to Universal in the morning?

What FP+ does due is reduce the need to be there for rope drop. 3 of WDW's 4 theme parks simply don't have enough good attractions worthy of FastPassing.

During the quarterly earnings calls, Iger and Rasulo have stated the following goals for MyMagic+:

1. Encourage guests to preplan more of their vacations. The idea being, if vacations are preplanned at WDW, guests are less likely to spend their Orlando vacation dollars elsewhere.
2. Provide guests with an overall better experience. The idea being that happy guests spend more.
3. Present Disney with upsell opportunities, in large part through smart phone technology.
4. Increase incentives for guests to switch from offsite to onsite hotels.

At least publically, these are the ways that MyMagic+ is supposed to make money.

MyMagic+ was intended to change guest behavior. It's doing exactly that.

Currently, it seems to me that Disney is struggling to keep up with that changed behavior. It seems they still are working on how to adjust FastPass+ appropriately.

 

[KevinYee]

There is little doubt that some rides are experiencing longer lines to redeem the FP+ (Safari was advertised as 15 minutes yesterday, and the line started at the Dawa Bar, to give only one example). But the effect is not evenly distributed.

I've seen long redemption lines at Space Mtn, Thunder Mtn, and Safari so far. (I've not spent a lot of time on FP+ capable rides in DHS or Epcot lately). The redemption lines are NOT long at Dinosaur, or Buzz Lightyear, to cite two examples.

This tells me that the scanning time (delay due to armband) can't be the largest reason, or else it would infect the "smaller" rides as well.

It makes absolute logical sense to me that "top of the hour" might yield more redemption attempts, but I always forget to look at my watch and see what part of the hour it is when I'm in one of those lines. I need to remember this conversation next time.

Is it possible that Disney is issuing "too many" FP+ (versus what the Legacy system distributed?) Sure. I haven't seen their data, and only they know how many Space Mtn passes they are giving out now versus a year ago.

I think there might also be another effect lurking in the background and working in concert: the standby lines at the midtier attractions. The low-end attractions (Idol, Tough to be a Bug, etc) are undoubtedly seeing VERY little bump from the FP+ switch. But the midtier ones - I'm thinking at this moment of Dinosaur - are seeing a jump in Standby times. What used to be a 10, 15, or at most 20 minute wait mid-afternoon on a weekend is now 50 minutes (or advertised as such, anyway).

I'm guessing the midtier attractions are not being used for the coveted FP+ slots. Or that people treat those as "throwaway" reservations, with only the E-ticket on the day's set of reservations as set in stone. The day is scheduled around the E-Ticket but *not necessarily* around all three reservations. Or maybe there are just fewer people using reservations for Dinosaur (because they used up their reservations on other things). If either of those are true, it would mean a longer standby line in 2014 versus 2013. And so far, it looks like that's what's happening.

At the same time, I think the Standby lines for the TOP attractions are actually a little bit lower. Space Mountain often sports times these days that are the same as last year or maybe a touch shorter. In other words, I think one effect of FP+ has been to flatten the curve, and spread out the line-waiting across more attractions. I furthermore think this was by design.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I do not like MM+ and I believe it is a huge waste of money. If that means Im "one of them", I can live with that. I can still enjoy WDW. Its also ok with me that other people LOVE it. If (they think) it makes their vacation better, then I say go for it and who cares what I or anybody else has to say.

MM+ is about one thing only, and its not guest enhancement. I seriously wonder if there is a room full of executives who just laugh their off all day every day at "those people" who blindly believe and defend the crap they (Disney) sold them is anything other than the same old product in the form of an app. lol

I understand, but Disney didn't sell them anything. They are installing a process that may or may not fit in with the desires of the public. It doesn't matter, when all is said and done, it is a operations and accounting system that is here to stay. I don't go there for their method of getting me to be admitted to the park, I go for what is in the park that I can enjoy. All the rest of that stuff is just background noise.

 

[RSoxNo1]

So why did they design and implement a system that would work well only if all guests suddenly became more knowledgeable and cooperative?

You have to design systems for the imperfect guests you have. If you don't, that's a design failure.

It's not just the poor design that you mentioned, the new system is fundamentally flawed. The actual acquiring/distribution of the Fastpasses is more complicated than the previous distribution. That in itself though isn't the fundamental flaw, that's only a poor design. While more complicated, there are steps that lead to actually receiving a Fastpass, there are just more steps involved than before. The fundamental flaw in the system is that it can only work for all guests if those guests acquire Fastpasses for things that don't need it.

Fastpass+ is a restaurant that serves prime rib. They require you to order in advance so they can manage their inventory. However, this restaurant still only has a set number of prime rib dinners available so when they run out, they also require you to order the hot dog in advance.

MyMagic+ was intended to change guest behavior. It's doing exactly that.

Currently, it seems to me that Disney is struggling to keep up with that changed behavior. It seems they still are working on how to adjust FastPass+ appropriately.

This presents a few questions though:

• If this was the behavior change that Disney wanted, why weren't they ready for it?
• If this was a behavior change that guests wanted, why aren't they happy with it?
• If MyMagic+ was changes guest behavior, do guests put up with the new "required" behavior?

I think there might also be another effect lurking in the background and working in concert: the standby lines at the midtier attractions. The low-end attractions (Idol, Tough to be a Bug, etc) are undoubtedly seeing VERY little bump from the FP+ switch. But the midtier ones - I'm thinking at this moment of Dinosaur - are seeing a jump in Standby times. What used to be a 10, 15, or at most 20 minute wait mid-afternoon on a weekend is now 50 minutes (or advertised as such, anyway).

I'm guessing the mid-tier attractions are not being used for the coveted FP+ slots. Or that people treat those as "throwaway" reservations, with only the E-ticket on the day's set of reservations as set in stone. The day is scheduled around the E-Ticket but *not necessarily* around all three reservations. Or maybe there are just fewer people using reservations for Dinosaur (because they used up their reservations on other things). If either of those are true, it would mean a longer standby line in 2014 versus 2013. And so far, it looks like that's what's happening.

At the same time, I think the Standby lines for the TOP attractions are actually a little bit lower. Space Mountain often sports times these days that are the same as last year or maybe a touch shorter. In other words, I think one effect of FP+ has been to flatten the curve, and spread out the line-waiting across more attractions. I furthermore think this was by design.

Let's assume Kevin's premise is correct: The acquisition of 3 Fastpasses differs from the usage of those 3 Fastpasses. This isn't a change in guest behavior at all. A legacy Toy Story Mania Fastpass could be scalped like a Super Bowl ticket, while a Voyage of the Little Mermaid Fastpass isn't worth the paper it was printed on (unless you're weird like me and collect them). This hasn't really changed yet. What's interesting is that the "lock it in" commercials (Which have seemingly disappeared by the way) highlight getting reservations for lower tier attractions like the Teacups.

This points back to the fundamental flaw. Maybe they change the behavior and get more guests to get Fastpass+ reservations for the mid-tier attractions, but there was never enough top-tier and mid-tier attractions in any park to really make this work anyway. To paraphrase a line from the book Moneyball, If there are no established stars (top-tier attractions) then the players we have (mid-tier attractions) will become the stars. Under this premise, eventually the likes of Dinosaur, Star Tours, etc will see an increase in demand for Fastpass+.

Having said that, it's not a solution to fixing a fundamentally flawed system. The motivation behind the current Fastpass+ system is to keep guests on property and in Disney's eye it does so because of these things:

• If a guest has "more" reservations with Disney, they will be less inclined to go to another theme park/entertainment venue
• They have set the value of "more" at three or four reservations per day at the onset, and have yet to deviate from that

It is unknown where Disney got to that magic number of three or four. As far as I know, there were no surveys conducted in the parks during the development of xPass that brought them to that number. If I'm incorrect, I apologize. We also know from @lentesta that the legacy Fastpass usage per guest was roughly 2 per guest.

Returning to Kevin's premise, if the usage is greater at top-tier attractions, then the real motivation to "keeping guests on property" is also likely shorter times at top-tier attractions. This brings me to the same conclusion that I keep coming to for this system:

• All resorts guests and DVC owners get one advanced reservation per day.
  
• Annual Passholders get a select number of advanced reservations per day/quarter, but no more than one per day.
• All guests get access to the new web/mobile enabled system upon entering the park.
• Distribution rules revert to the legacy distribution rules.

This would eliminate tiers, this would eliminate the need to have Fastpasses where it doesn't belong, this would still be a benefit to staying on property, this would still encourage park hopping, and this would be a genuine "plussing" of the previous system.