Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[RSoxNo1]

It's not a linear relationship. If a ride is operating below capacity, increased attendance can be absorbed without increasing wait times. If a ride is operating at capacity, 100% of the increased attendance will translate to increased wait times and crowding. If capacity is (relatively) fixed, a 10% increase in attendance will necessarily result in a greater than 10% increase of wait times and crowding. That's just the math.

The first part of this (rides operating below capacity) is directly contradicted by the rest of it.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

Quite a few don't. The number of home schooled kids with no set vacation schedule is also steadily rising.

You also have a large generation that grew up in the Disney Renaissance now entering a more stable time of their life with more buying power. Many have kids now of appropriate travel age but many others, like my wife and I, do not and just like to go to the parks. It seems like there is at least one person on our social media accounts at WDW every week.

Disney obviously recognized this in their choices of characters and songs in Happily Ever After. Very little pre-1989 character presence in the show. If you don't count pre-89 characters that have been revived in a recent spin off series or movie (like Tinkerbell), it's even less.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I go every week and I just don't feel that I've had to wait abnormally longer than usual. Unfortunately, I know this perspective isn't welcome in this discussion because it doesn't align with the agenda.

So what are your wait times? What exaclty are you waiting for?

How long have you been going with this frequency to wdw?

...flesh it out and help a brotha out...

 

[RSoxNo1]

Just go and observe...it's pretty easy to see without statistical analysis.

I said the example I experienced (several times): 45 minute fast pass wait and a very short standby line with a posted 150-180 minute wait.

That's shocking and there's no way to account for that or fix it, frankly.

If the "Magic Number" of rides is 14?? Nobody is hitting that...it's impossible to string that many Together in the currency conditions...the TTA has a 30 minute wait and a snaking queue.

Anecdotal evidence... always the best approach to understanding a problem.

 

[Master Yoda]

Anecdotal evidence... always the best approach to understanding a problem.

I have had a bunch of people tell me the same thing.

 

[ford91exploder]

With all of the information available on the internet and elsewhere, I am still surprised as to why people pay money for others to plan their trips or provide information you can generally find on your own. Those "crowd calendars" arent worth the paper they are printed on. Highly inaccurate as things change so often. Park hours change the day before, added hours, special events, etc. Its silly. Quit wasting money and plan your own trips.

Because for some guests it's cheaper for them to pay Len to plan the trip than burn hours which are billable at a higher rate.

 

[The_Jobu]

I go every week and I just don't feel that I've had to wait abnormally longer than usual. Unfortunately, I know this perspective isn't welcome in this discussion because it doesn't align with the agenda.

If you go every week it sounds like a frog in a boiling pot scenario. Len's data is not "an agenda" he's creating for giggles. It's measurable and evidenced.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Why is it you assume "loads of new people"
Are gonna show up? People have to have the time, money and someplace to stay...and all those means are declining...

A Star Wars land based on their awful sequel trilogy (bet me on that...I'll collect in 5-10 years) isn't going to flood 10 mil more...it will go up, but more organically.

Incorrect. What I described is exactly the strategic motivation behind New Fantasyland. It failed for exactly the reasons I laid out. More people showed up than capacity was added.

 

[ford91exploder]

Anecdotal evidence... always the best approach to understanding a problem.

Enough 'anecdotal evidence' becomes the 'wisdom of crowds'.

 

[Master Yoda]

Incorrect. What I described is exactly the strategic motivation behind New Fantasyland. It failed for exactly the reasons I laid out. More people showed up than capacity was added.

It is that wonderful induced demand problem MK has.

Building up the other parks will help a little, but I fear MK will always be the go to park in WDW and what we see now is here to stay.

 

[networkpro]

If you go every week it sounds like a frog in a boiling pot scenario. Len's data is not "an agenda" he's creating for giggles. It's measurable and evidenced.

But its always backwards looking, so that pitfall when not associated with changing marketing plans for both admission pricing and resort bundles makes it just a history lesson.

 

[The_Jobu]

But its always backwards looking, so that pitfall when not associated with changing marketing plans for both admission pricing and resort bundles makes it just a history lesson.

History lessons are always useful. Len is also a statistics superfreak so I'll put a lot more stock in his calculations and evidence.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Not necessarily.

Pretty much everything in the world from attractions, to restaurants to bathrooms has a maximum number of people it can serve in a particular time frame. Exceed that number and waits are going to go up. Exceed it by a lot and they will balloon to insane in short order.

If everything is staffed at a level to support the maximum level of guests but the number of guests exceeds that maximum at Disney, but not at Universal then you will see long lines at Disney, but not at Universal. Considering that MK sees nearly twice the number of guests that US does it is quite possible that MK's attractions are overloaded where US's attractions are not.

This is where it gets fishy. If Disney is trying to cut staff to the absolute bare minimum then they are going to make the problem worse especially if crowds exceed their projections.

It's not a linear relationship. If a ride is operating below capacity, increased attendance can be absorbed without increasing wait times. If a ride is operating at capacity, 100% of the increased attendance will translate to increased wait times and crowding. If capacity is (relatively) fixed, a 10% increase in attendance will necessarily result in a greater than 10% increase of wait times and crowding. That's just the math.

Can you show the math for this? For one attraction, linear increases in attendance should have linear increases in wait times, everything else constant.

Still on a plane, so lack of oxygen might be affecting my brain.

The Tipping Point

Let's say a ride can handle 1,000 people per hour.

• If 10 pph show up one day, no line
• if 500 pph show up the next day, no line
• if 1,000 pph show up the next day, no line
• if 1,100 pph show up the next day -- just a 10% increase from the day before -- there will be a line
  • in the first hour there will be 100 people in line
  • in the second hour an extra 100 people can't be accommodated, and so, there will be 200 people in line
  • by the 10th hour of the park, there will be 1,000 people in line
• if 2,000 pph show up the next day, the line grows by 1,000 people per hour, leading to 10,000 people in line at the end of the day

That's what happens when you pass a ride's maximum. Up until the maximum, there will be no line. Once you go past it, it starts building up.

And of course, at some point, people decide the line's too long to wait and so there's a slow down on the build-up of people waiting (unless it's FoP... 5 hours? OK!).

 

[The_Jobu]

The Tipping Point

Let's say a ride can handle 1,000 people per hour.

• If 10 pph show up one day, no line
• if 500 pph show up the next day, no line
• if 1,000 pph show up the next day, no line
• if 1,100 pph show up the next day -- just a 10% increase from the day before -- there will be a line
  • in the first hour there will be 100 people in line
  • in the second hour and extra 100 people can't be accommodated, and so, there will be 200 people in line
  • by the 10th hour of the park, there will be 1,000 people in line
• if 2,000 pph show up the next day, the line grows by 1,000 people per hour, leading to 10,000 people in line at the end of the day

That's what happens when you pass a ride's maximum. Up until the maximum, there will be no line. Once you go past it, it starts building up.

And of course, at some point, people decide the line's too long to wait and so there's a slow down on the build-up of people waiting (unless it's FoP... 5 hours? OK!).

Are you suggesting spending 5 hours in line isn't a MAGICAL experience??

 

[MisterPenguin]

Understaffing Effects

So, WDW does reduce staffing on days and times they expect there to not be big crowds. In the first week of February as we were getting close to fireworks time at DHS, we went to Star Tours and they were filling only half the pods. But there was a 15 minute wait.

But... just how many rides can be 'understaffed'? I know that WDW can run just one Dumbo spinner instead of two, or load only one side of PotC instead of both. But, it takes the same number of staff to fill up all of an omnimover as much as every other chair. It takes the same number of staff to send out a boat once every 10 seconds as once every 20 seconds. The same number of staff to run a full Tiki Room as a half-full one. What's the PPH of the parks running at full capacity compared to minimum-but-still-open capacity?

 

[Jones14]

Just to add my $.02 on the idea of 7-8 experiences:

I think that number is reflective of the guests who leave the hotel at 9 or 10 for the Magic Kingdom with the intent to get fastpasses when they get there and then leave right after the fireworks, not what we think of.

If you rope drop a park and/or stay till closing and/or get decent fastpasses, there’s no way you’re not getting into the 10s. Heck, we were at MK for four hours a few days ago and we did 7 ‘experiences’ in that time.

 

[bhg469]

They are actually the reason behind the Fast and the Furious attraction at Universal. South America seems to the current target demographic. Fast has a huge appeal in south america.

EWWWWWWWWWW!!!!! That franchise baffles me in its popularity. and the attraction just seems like it will be extremely uninteresting

 

[mikejs78]

I don't understand the no-season-anymore-theory. Are parents now not planning around school vacations? Or is the leveling-off from adults (non-school children) attendance rising during traditional off-peak times? I say nope to all that. It's Disney manipulating staffing and capacities to save money, while giving the illusion that everyday is just as busy as the last. It makes a ticket more of a perceived premium, thus the ability to charge more. So, 1,000 people can equal 10,000 in the pockets.

I suspect it's a combo. My guess is that Disney really tried to nail the capacity planning too tightly to get to that optimum staffing level based on prior years. Then this year ended up being higher than typical, due to Irma reschedules, increases from Brazil, and just an overall better economy. Those two things (decreased capacity plus larger than expected crowds) led to the mess that was this Jan/Feb.

 

[mikejs78]

Because for some guests it's cheaper for them to pay Len to plan the trip than burn hours which are billable at a higher rate.

Len doesn't plan trips for people. He gives tools for people to plan their own trips. I've used his tools quite successfully in the past and will continue to in the future as I've found value in them. If you don't that's fine, but I've found them helpful.

 

[Master Yoda]

EWWWWWWWWWW!!!!! That franchise baffles me in its popularity. and the attraction just seems like it will be extremely uninteresting

Both of my SILs are tuners and they look at the Fast and the Furious like I look at Star Wars.

I don't get it either, but whatever floats your boat.