Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Tony the Tigger]

I think the increase was pretty massive. The drop from '15-'16 was around 1%. The increase from '16-'17 was closer to 5%, iirc. I'll edit with the wikipedia link & numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amusement_park_rankings
2015 2016 2017
MK 20,492,000 20,395,000 20,450,000
EP 11,798,000 11,712,000 12,200,000
HS 10,828,000 10,776,000 10,722,000
AK 10,922,000 10,844,000 12,500,000
54,040,000 53,727,000 55,872,000

Up 3.3% from 2015, probably close to exactly 4% from 2016 (lazy & didn't add up). Should be noted, almost all the gain was from AK & Epcot. MK & HS didn't rebound. HS suffered due to closures, especially as @Minnesota disney fan mentioned the Osborne lights, but also the general idea that it had become a 'half day' park. MK seems to be bouncing around its limits, which will definitely be tested in 2021. Was down 0.6% in 2016.

Interesting, so overall up from 2015 to 2017 but specific parks were lagging. Thanks for posting that! (And I'm even more lazy since I didn't even go to Wikipedia!)

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Interesting, so overall up from 2015 to 2017 but specific parks were lagging. Thanks for posting that! (And I'm even more lazy since I didn't even go to Wikipedia!)

Yes, but the decreases were small relative to the increases. The MK decrease 2015-2017 is 0.2%. DHS decrease 0.98%.

And because I'm a fan of pictures and it takes 2min:

2 axes so you can see y-o-y movement better (not great, but quick ):

 

[MisterPenguin]

Also remember where those numbers come from

The people who use the same system of guesstimating year after year so that year v. year differences wind up being pretty reliable?

 

[ABQ]

It’s not just me. Look at threads here, elsewhere, and social media people really enjoy that entertainment. I get it you may not but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t popular.

Yup, I totally miss the World Showcase Players. My girlfriend was a big fan of the Ziti Sisters when they played in the Italy Pavilion. I always loved the Scrooge performance in the UK during the holidays. Citizens of Hollywood were great organic fun that did very well to fill the time and give your tired feet a rest in the studios.

 

[winstongator]

Yes, but the decreases were small relative to the increases. The MK decrease 2015-2017 is 0.2%. DHS decrease 0.98%.

View attachment 314849

And because I'm a fan of pictures and it takes 2min:
View attachment 314852

2 axes so you can see y-o-y movement better (not great, but quick ):
View attachment 314853

I like pictures too, thanks.

The MK decline is less than one day’s worth. Which is funny because weren’t the parks closed two days for Irma? The HS decline was understandable as it was in massive flux and had 4 rides.

 

[Disone]

Attendance has been so strange this year. Some days its packed to the brim and unbearable and others its a ghost town.

Please call me when it's a ghost town. I keep missing those opportunities

 

[JoeCamel]

I like pictures too, thanks.

The MK decline is less than one day’s worth. Which is funny because weren’t the parks closed two days for Irma? The HS decline was understandable as it was in massive flux and had 4 rides.

I think you are missing the opportunity factor. If I grow less yoy or drop than steady growth would suggest the numbers should be that is not real growth it is a decline. While the competition shows double digit growth WDW is fairly stagnant. Very reflective of the lack of investment for ten years while milking the guests for all their pennies to apply to stock buyback propping up the share price and paying bonuses.

 

[Rodan75]

All of these changes look and feel like they have been in the works for months. Not weeks. The slower bookings look like an excuse to group the cuts in quick succession before their new FY starts.

 

[Gabe1]

The people who use the same system of guesstimating year after year so that year v. year differences wind up being pretty reliable?

Me I witnessed the decrease over multiple weeks down there this fall. Don’t know if it is the price increase for both resorts and admission or possibly the let’s wait for Starwars? When I can play around and get FoP down to two hours somethings up. The multiple annual Passholder events offered. By the way they both were great did both Toy and Epcot the same day.

You know the attendance is low when you don’t have to stake out an Illuminations spot in advance just walk up to any rail in any country. We were able to hit every major attraction at MK with additional FP between 1015 am and 130pm. FP was like front of line Uni. We could eat wherever we wanted. 40% off lunches at high end Disney Springs. Doesn’t need data analytics to tell you WDW is slow like early 2000s slow. It was the same last year same weeks but Irma was blamed aside from packed resorts from influx of Floridians taking shelter. Me from what I’ve seen With 4 trips this year the percentages are off. It is slower than being stated.

 

[Lucky]

Doesn’t need data analytics to tell you WDW is slow like early 2000s slow.

There were a few times last week when crowds reminded me of September 2003-2005 (like at Illuminations, as you said). But in general it seemed busier to me. I don’t think a 1 on the crowd calendar means the same thing as a 1 from the early/mid 2000s.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Me I witnessed the decrease over multiple weeks down there this fall. Don’t know if it is the price increase for both resorts and admission or possibly the let’s wait for Starwars? When I can play around and get FoP down to two hours somethings up. The multiple annual Passholder events offered. By the way they both were great did both Toy and Epcot the same day.

You know the attendance is low when you don’t have to stake out an Illuminations spot in advance just walk up to any rail in any country. We were able to hit every major attraction at MK with additional FP between 1015 am and 130pm. FP was like front of line Uni. We could eat wherever we wanted. 40% off lunches at high end Disney Springs. Doesn’t need data analytics to tell you WDW is slow like early 2000s slow. It was the same last year same weeks but Irma was blamed aside from packed resorts from influx of Floridians taking shelter. Me from what I’ve seen With 4 trips this year the percentages are off. It is slower than being stated.

Don't know why you quoted me.

The data from TEA is for up to 2017 and there is no data from them yet regarding 2018.

 

[disneyflush]

Less people are coming to the parks, lets increase our attractions and entertainment offerings to woo them back.

Less people are coming to the parks, lets decrease our attractions and entertainment offerings.

 

[larryz]

Less people are coming to the parks, lets increase our attractions and entertainment offerings to woo them back.

Less people are coming to the parks, lets decrease our attractions and entertainment offerings.

One of those is Spam, and one of those is roast chicken.

 

[Gabe1]

There were a few times last week when crowds reminded me of September 2003-2005 (like at Illuminations, as you said). But in general it seemed busier to me. I don’t think a 1 on the crowd calendar means the same thing as a 1 from the early/mid 2000s.

That’s too bad it didn’t work out for you. Guess it is a timing thing. We did see the artificial uptick in guests fleeing the hurricane at the end of our trip along with a marked rise in pets seeking shelter at the resorts with guests. The 2nd Halloween party we attended was more crowded but we figured it would be as it was the last night for Cast Members this year for their CM discount for the party so it did bring a lot of employees and their families that evening. We attended the AP extra hours at EPCOT and the front end of the park was dead from late afternoon until 11. We had the same good fortune at the studios and AK. Even TOY wasn’t stupid by evening.

 

[eddie104]

Yes, but the decreases were small relative to the increases. The MK decrease 2015-2017 is 0.2%. DHS decrease 0.98%.

View attachment 314849

And because I'm a fan of pictures and it takes 2min:
View attachment 314852

2 axes so you can see y-o-y movement better (not great, but quick ):
View attachment 314985

Thanks for creating these and reading this thread makes my head hurt.

 

[Cesar R M]

The budget cuts — i.e. decrease in spending — ARE temporary.

I'm pretty sure its the OPPOSITE.

Budget increase in expending are a rarity and only set and mandated when the management thinks its REALLY necessary. Like when they were not growing at all and all the money growth was by pure price hikes. All while Universal was firing on all cylinders.

Cuts are appropriate and necessary when sales/attendance are down. Any business who did not make cuts to match attendance would be irresponsible. When my little business is busier in season, I can put more people on the schedule. In the summer, I have to cut hours and work more shifts myself - because that is what the then-current level of business will support. Not for reasons of heartless budget cutting. If I didn't do that, I'd quickly take on enough debt to become a problem in the near term.

Getting mixed signals here.. First you all say that ther hasnt been a downside in attendance. therefore cuts would not be appropriate.
WDW is very well known to do cutting REGARDLESS of attendance. They want to boost profits even if the castle falls apart.

 

[Cesar R M]

Yes, but the decreases were small relative to the increases. The MK decrease 2015-2017 is 0.2%. DHS decrease 0.98%.

View attachment 314849

And because I'm a fan of pictures and it takes 2min:
View attachment 314852

2 axes so you can see y-o-y movement better (not great, but quick ):
View attachment 314985

Building and adding new things makes big crowds!
Shuttering things ruins the parks attendance!

Who knew ! (lol except disney I guess)
On the good side, at least they're building quite a bit now.