Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[larryz]

Can you show the math for this? For one attraction, linear increases in attendance should have linear increases in wait times, everything else constant.

Still on a plane, so lack of oxygen might be affecting my brain.

It's not lack of oxygen. I think it's a flaw in the logic. The only way to increase flow when under capacity is to maximize efficiency at load and unload, and Disney is just not staffing to do that due to (a) their flawed staffing models, or (b) their insatiable greed (pick one, or maybe both).

 

[dreamfinder]

Guests rate their day as satisfied if they have 7-8 experiences, a category that is broader than attractions and includes parades, nighttime spectaculars and meet and greets. This is that Disney is trying to push. You can also see how it shaped the build out of Disney’s Animal Kingdom, Disney’s California Adventure and Walt Disney Studios Park.

14 always seemed high, but for some reason it was stuck in my head. 7-8 is a much more reasonable number.

 

[Nj4mwc]

I like touring plans because they admit how accurate they are. When they post what they predicted and what the levels actually were, I love that. And the fact he's willing to talk on his podcast that they have been wrong makes me love the product more. It's a tool and a very cheap one in my opinion. I hope the predictions are at least close and I've had them swing both ways when visiting.

 

[seascape]

I will let this speak for itself.

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/257528-brazil-back-declares-orlando-airport-director

 

[USofA scott]

Here is some food for thought.
"January is slow season"
That may have been the situation in the past. OK, we know that was the situation. However, why does anyone think that it would continue as the slow season? More people are attending Walt Disney World in January. Did anyone try to book a hotel in January or February? I made a quick trip down on Jan 8-10 and Feb 5-7. 10 days prior, I tried to book hotel rooms. There was almost nothing available. Campground and suites. My Jan trip I could not get anything at all except FW the day I wanted to book. I checked back the next day and could get a water view room at Carribean Beach or a campground spot. I took the CB room. The next day was down to FW only again. My Feb trip I could get 2 nights at AS Sports when I wanted 3 or a suite at Coronado or Poly. That was it for a Thursday night.

January was definately slower than Christmas week. But that does not mean it was slow.

"Disney is manipulating line times"
I would hope that they are. I manage restaurants and nightclubs. I am responsible for making sure that there are lots of staff members there for Saturday night. But on Monday night I will have only 1 bartender on. If it gets busy, I still only have 1 bartender to help the guests. But my goal is to increase sales on Monday night, so I hope that people have to wait for a drink instead of having a bartender getting paid to play on his phone.

In the restaurant, if it is Tuesday night, I might have 2 servers on duty. If 8 tables walk in within a few moments, some of them are going to sit and wait. But I am not going to open both dining rooms and staff them both so that you can get instant service. I would be unemployed if I did. It is my responsibility to schedule for the goldiloks spot. As a shareholder, I would be upset if Disney did not operate that way. You are going to a theme park...You will wait in lines.

 

[seascape]

There is also the fact that the US economy is doing great. 313,000 new jobs just in February and an unemployment rate of 4.1% and finally increasing job participation rate. Anyone who doubts big gains in tourism in Orlando which will benefit every park in Orlando does not understand what is happening in this country. We are finally having a full recovery from the great recession.

 

[lazyboy97o]

14 always seemed high, but for some reason it was stuck in my head. 7-8 is a much more reasonable number.

Fourteen really is a more reasonable number based on industry norms. Disney has pushed attractions per guest per hour down around 0.5 when that number is typically desired to be more around 1.5 attractions per hour.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Here is some food for thought.
"January is slow season"
That may have been the situation in the past. OK, we know that was the situation. However, why does anyone think that it would continue as the slow season? More people are attending Walt Disney World in January. Did anyone try to book a hotel in January or February? I made a quick trip down on Jan 8-10 and Feb 5-7. 10 days prior, I tried to book hotel rooms. There was almost nothing available. Campground and suites. My Jan trip I could not get anything at all except FW the day I wanted to book. I checked back the next day and could get a water view room at Carribean Beach or a campground spot. I took the CB room. The next day was down to FW only again. My Feb trip I could get 2 nights at AS Sports when I wanted 3 or a suite at Coronado or Poly. That was it for a Thursday night.

January was definately slower than Christmas week. But that does not mean it was slow.

"Disney is manipulating line times"
I would hope that they are. I manage restaurants and nightclubs. I am responsible for making sure that there are lots of staff members there for Saturday night. But on Monday night I will have only 1 bartender on. If it gets busy, I still only have 1 bartender to help the guests. But my goal is to increase sales on Monday night, so I hope that people have to wait for a drink instead of having a bartender getting paid to play on his phone.

In the restaurant, if it is Tuesday night, I might have 2 servers on duty. If 8 tables walk in within a few moments, some of them are going to sit and wait. But I am not going to open both dining rooms and staff them both so that you can get instant service. I would be unemployed if I did. It is my responsibility to schedule for the goldiloks spot. As a shareholder, I would be upset if Disney did not operate that way. You are going to a theme park...You will wait in lines.

Exactly. Plus, TouringPlans uses a 1 to 10 scale to predict crowds. If it's always busy, even the least busy times are going to be busy. People see "Magic Kingdom is only supposed to have level 1 crowds on a scale of 1 to 10" and assume the place is going to be empty. No, that's not how it works.

Analogy: Someone tells you that you're going to visit the South Pole on the warmest day ever recorded, so you pack shorts and a t-shirt. Then you complain when you get there and it's only 11 degrees.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

Not excusing the practice but finding that sweet spot between levels of service and labor costs is not something unique to Disney. Though, given their relative advanced data capture and analysis capabilities, they are probably much better at it.

In the restaurant business you can sometimes see it happen when there is a false wait to be seated. Why staff for immediate service, especially in non peak times, when they know your wait tolerance is 5, 10, 15 minutes. To some degree, it makes sense and is financially responsible but it can be overdone.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Exactly. Plus, TouringPlans uses a 1 to 10 scale to predict crowds. If it's always busy, even the least busy times are going to be busy. People see "Magic Kingdom is only supposed to have level 1 crowds on a scale of 1 to 10" and assume the place is going to be empty. No, that's not how it works.

Analogy: Someone tells you that you're going to visit the South Pole on the warmest day ever recorded, so you pack shorts and a t-shirt. Then you complain when you get there and it's only 11 degrees.

The math isn’t done with only ten digits.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Fourteen really is a more reasonable number based on industry norms. Disney has pushed attractions per guest per hour down around 0.5 when that number is typically desired to be more around 1.5 attractions per hour.

But is that a numerator problem or a denominator problem? If Disney builds new things and loads of people show up to experience them, then they've actually hurt their ratio while, at the same time, increasing capacity.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The math isn’t done with only ten digits.

I'm not talking about the math, I'm talking about the user's perspective.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, the best we can hope for is that word is out that there is no slow season at WDW any more, and so people will surmise that if it doesn't matter when they go, they might as well plan their trips for cooler weather, thus making Oct - Mar the new summer, and conversely, May - Sep the new "off season."

I think it's already happening...

Over the last 5 years...I have been less appalled by crowds at spring break and summer than the "slow times"...longer traditional hours seem to blunt.

February was awful...going in 3 weeks and in late summer...

I bet February ends up being the most uncomfortable/crowded

 

[MrHappy]

Well, the best we can hope for is that word is out that there is no slow season at WDW any more, and so people will surmise that if it doesn't matter when they go, they might as well plan their trips for cooler weather, thus making Oct - Mar the new summer, and conversely, May - Sep the new "off season."

I don't understand the no-season-anymore-theory. Are parents now not planning around school vacations? Or is the leveling-off from adults (non-school children) attendance rising during traditional off-peak times? I say nope to all that. It's Disney manipulating staffing and capacities to save money, while giving the illusion that everyday is just as busy as the last. It makes a ticket more of a perceived premium, thus the ability to charge more. So, 1,000 people can equal 10,000 in the pockets.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But is that a numerator problem or a denominator problem? If Disney builds new things and loads of people show up to experience them, then they've actually hurt their ratio while, at the same time, increasing capacity.

Why is it you assume "loads of new people"
Are gonna show up? People have to have the time, money and someplace to stay...and all those means are declining...

A Star Wars land based on their awful sequel trilogy (bet me on that...I'll collect in 5-10 years) isn't going to flood 10 mil more...it will go up, but more organically.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't understand the no-season-anymore-theory. Are parents now not planning around school vacations? Or is the leveling-off from adults (non-school children) attendance rising during traditional off-peak times? I say nope to all that. It's Disney manipulating staffing and capacities to save money, while giving the illusion that everyday is just as busy as the last. It makes a ticket more of a perceived premium, thus the ability to charge more. So, 1,000 people can equal 10,000 in the pockets.

Travel is definitely more widespread across the calendar across all demographics. Many reasons...

There are two types of people:
1. Those that know nothing important happens in a week of school.
2. Those that are wrong.

 

[BoarderPhreak]

Crowd calendars. LOL... How quaint.

 

[lazyboy97o]

But is that a numerator problem or a denominator problem? If Disney builds new things and loads of people show up to experience them, then they've actually hurt their ratio while, at the same time, increasing capacity.

You fix the number by controlling your costs and building more than marquee experiences. Disney though is not interested in raising the number.

I'm not talking about the math, I'm talking about the user's perspective.

Len’s commentary comes from the math.

 

[Master Yoda]

I don't understand the no-season-anymore-theory. Are parents now not planning around school vacations? Or is the leveling-off from adults (non-school children) attendance rising during traditional off-peak times? I say nope to all that. It's Disney manipulating staffing and capacities to save money, while giving the illusion that everyday is just as busy as the last. It makes a ticket more of a perceived premium, thus the ability to charge more. So, 1,000 people can equal 10,000 in the pockets.

Quite a few don't. The number of home schooled kids with no set vacation schedule is also steadily rising.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I was in the parks in late January and we had several days that were wildly off from the TouringPlans projections and our experiences in prior years. We speculated it could be related to weird behavior from the storms in January disrupting travel but this theory also works out.