lentesta
Premium Member
Thanks. Yeah, you're right. After I responded I realized that I hadn't considered the case where there was immediate capacity available (so, your first 3 points). Waits do scale linearly after that though.
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Len Testa Crowd Analysis
- Thread starter GeneralKnowledge
- Start date
Thanks. Yeah, you're right. After I responded I realized that I hadn't considered the case where there was immediate capacity available (so, your first 3 points). Waits do scale linearly after that though.
njDizFan
Well-Known Member
The spike in wait times just does not correlate to actual attendance numbers (at least the one's issued by TEA).
There was a really nice post recession spike in 2013 resulting in record attendance in 2015 but the last couple of years WDW numbers have stagnated if not decreased.
2013 18.6 million
2015 20.5 million
2016 20.4 million
That equates to an extra 5000 people in the Magic Kingdom per day averaged over 365, yet it feels like every day is the middle of July. Or 20 million was the tipping point without any increase in capacity. I wasn't there in 2015, was the park manageable in certain months?
There was a really nice post recession spike in 2013 resulting in record attendance in 2015 but the last couple of years WDW numbers have stagnated if not decreased.
2013 18.6 million
2015 20.5 million
2016 20.4 million
That equates to an extra 5000 people in the Magic Kingdom per day averaged over 365, yet it feels like every day is the middle of July. Or 20 million was the tipping point without any increase in capacity. I wasn't there in 2015, was the park manageable in certain months?
lentesta
Premium Member
Back on land. A couple of things, some of which are reposted here for easy reference:
This NY Times article from 2010 quoting Disney is the source of the "10 rides per day on average" number. I don;t know whether FP+ has increased that. It may have added 1 (because not everyone uses all 3 FPs). So maybe 11 now?
We first suspected Disney was cutting ride capacity/staffing back in late summer 2015, when wait times increased much faster than attendance possibly could. Here's a chart from last year showing the increase in wait times since 2010, at all four WDW parks:
As of late 2017, wait times were up 20% to 60% from 2014/2015. There is zero chance - none at all - that attendance is up that much.
We factor those cuts into our crowd calendar models.
The differences we saw in January 2018 were beyond those cuts. As I've said, we think some of that was a better economy and postponed trips from September's hurricane. Universal's wait times were higher than expected, too, which would point to a general trend across Orlando. But Disney's wait times were much higher.
We didn't arrive at a cause of reduced capacity until the first week of February, when we started counting riders. View the numbers below with some skepticism. Also, we focused on headliners with high capacity, so changes at attractions like Mad Tea Party wouldn't be picked up through rider counts.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Train Average Riders/Hour After 2/21: 1,443 Before 2/21: 1,103 (-24%)
Big Thunder (WDW) After 2/21: 1,570 Before: 1,232 (-22%)
Buzz Lightyear (WDW) After 2/21: 1,813 Before: 1,351 (-25%)
Space Mountain (WDW) After 2/21: 1,620 Before: 1,443 (-11%)
Those numbers exclude obvious breakdowns, of which this week has been notable. It includes wheelchair stops, which seem to be consistent. The numbers are measured during the same time window across days.
Rides that seem about the same: Haunted Mansion (WDW and DLR), Small World (DLR), Dinosaur, Expedition Everest, Pirates (WDW and DLR), Star Tours (WDW and DLR), Toy Story (WDW at 2/3rds capacity), Soarin' (WDW), and Jungle Cruise (DLR).
Capacities at Rock 'n' Roller Coaster and Space Mountain (DLR) haven't been consistent, and we're trying to figure out why. Splash (WDW) wasn't up enough to measure. Kilimanjaro Safaris has unpredictable animal slowdowns, but generally looks consistent.
In the case of 7DMT, BTMRR, and Space (WDW), the reduced capacity was from running fewer ride vehicles on the track, which is fairly easy to see. For 7DMT, where people line up an hour before the park opens, it's hard to come up with a good reason ever to run the ride at less than 100% capacity. To see 3 trains running instead of 5 should raise some questions.
It's possible that those older rides (especially Space) were running at reduced capacity simply because they break down too often when run at 100% capacity for days on end. Space, Tower, and Test Track are among the most breakdown-prone in WDW.
Management might look at 85% capacity all day as better than 0% capacity for an hour - the chaos from rescheduled FP+ reservations alone would probably be enough to make that decision, especially at Epcot and DHS, which have fewer headliners to spread out crowds.
Last point for this post: The reason why I'm talking about reduced capacity is that we (touringplans) try to understand the causes when our models are wrong, and explain them. As a businessperson, I totally understand Disney's motivation for doing it. One of our goals with TP has always been transparency and objectivity with the data, and that's what we're trying to do with these conversations.
This NY Times article from 2010 quoting Disney is the source of the "10 rides per day on average" number. I don;t know whether FP+ has increased that. It may have added 1 (because not everyone uses all 3 FPs). So maybe 11 now?
We first suspected Disney was cutting ride capacity/staffing back in late summer 2015, when wait times increased much faster than attendance possibly could. Here's a chart from last year showing the increase in wait times since 2010, at all four WDW parks:
As of late 2017, wait times were up 20% to 60% from 2014/2015. There is zero chance - none at all - that attendance is up that much.
We factor those cuts into our crowd calendar models.
The differences we saw in January 2018 were beyond those cuts. As I've said, we think some of that was a better economy and postponed trips from September's hurricane. Universal's wait times were higher than expected, too, which would point to a general trend across Orlando. But Disney's wait times were much higher.
We didn't arrive at a cause of reduced capacity until the first week of February, when we started counting riders. View the numbers below with some skepticism. Also, we focused on headliners with high capacity, so changes at attractions like Mad Tea Party wouldn't be picked up through rider counts.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Train Average Riders/Hour After 2/21: 1,443 Before 2/21: 1,103 (-24%)
Big Thunder (WDW) After 2/21: 1,570 Before: 1,232 (-22%)
Buzz Lightyear (WDW) After 2/21: 1,813 Before: 1,351 (-25%)
Space Mountain (WDW) After 2/21: 1,620 Before: 1,443 (-11%)
Those numbers exclude obvious breakdowns, of which this week has been notable. It includes wheelchair stops, which seem to be consistent. The numbers are measured during the same time window across days.
Rides that seem about the same: Haunted Mansion (WDW and DLR), Small World (DLR), Dinosaur, Expedition Everest, Pirates (WDW and DLR), Star Tours (WDW and DLR), Toy Story (WDW at 2/3rds capacity), Soarin' (WDW), and Jungle Cruise (DLR).
Capacities at Rock 'n' Roller Coaster and Space Mountain (DLR) haven't been consistent, and we're trying to figure out why. Splash (WDW) wasn't up enough to measure. Kilimanjaro Safaris has unpredictable animal slowdowns, but generally looks consistent.
In the case of 7DMT, BTMRR, and Space (WDW), the reduced capacity was from running fewer ride vehicles on the track, which is fairly easy to see. For 7DMT, where people line up an hour before the park opens, it's hard to come up with a good reason ever to run the ride at less than 100% capacity. To see 3 trains running instead of 5 should raise some questions.
It's possible that those older rides (especially Space) were running at reduced capacity simply because they break down too often when run at 100% capacity for days on end. Space, Tower, and Test Track are among the most breakdown-prone in WDW.
Management might look at 85% capacity all day as better than 0% capacity for an hour - the chaos from rescheduled FP+ reservations alone would probably be enough to make that decision, especially at Epcot and DHS, which have fewer headliners to spread out crowds.
Last point for this post: The reason why I'm talking about reduced capacity is that we (touringplans) try to understand the causes when our models are wrong, and explain them. As a businessperson, I totally understand Disney's motivation for doing it. One of our goals with TP has always been transparency and objectivity with the data, and that's what we're trying to do with these conversations.
lentesta
Premium Member
Pay the man.
95% of public schools were in session in January 2018. 95% of public schools were not in session in Summer 2017. January's wait times were higher. What are the odds that tens of thousands of parents suddenly decided that truancy was okay, all at once, independently?
lentesta
Premium Member
Around 3% in the U.S. last time I checked, up from 1.7% a decade earlier. Definitely worth watching over the long term.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
There was ALWAYS a tipping point...previous management was more concerned with never finding it
lentesta
Premium Member
And yet it's true. Stay in school, kids, and work hard.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
What's statistically significant for the wdw customers:
1. 3% homeschooled
2. 1.7% homeschooled
3. None of the above
tissandtully
Well-Known Member
I'm not so sure about it. What explains a 75 minute wait for HM besides the addition of FP+? There weren't fewer CMs, what jobs do some CMs do that would increase wait times if they weren't on them?
Reduce staff, close earlier and earlier, and the customers are the ones that pay the price. We are scheduled in early June and if the MK is closing at 10:00-it will be our last trip.
SteamboatJoe
Well-Known Member
Yep. I came pretty close to 9 before noon a couple years back. Had we not stopped for a snack at Gaston's, I probably would've gotten there easily with the right selections.
lentesta
Premium Member
A 3% homeschooling rate is around 1.7MM kids, about the same as all public schools in Georgia and Rhode Island combined.
That 3% is spread out over 50 states, obviously. The vast majority don't visit WDW - maybe 6%, tops, if I had to guess - or around 280 kids per day at all four parks combined, on average.
lentesta
Premium Member
I think it's pretty clear that FP+ decreased wait times at headliner attractions and increased wait times at secondary attractions (like HM). That is, it spread people around slightly more evenly.
bhg469
Well-Known Member
Thank you for this frustrating data! I was really hoping you were wrong but I believe you are pointing out a pretty infuriating trend.Back on land. A couple of things, some of which are reposted here for easy reference:
This NY Times article from 2010 quoting Disney is the source of the "10 rides per day on average" number. I don;t know whether FP+ has increased that. It may have added 1 (because not everyone uses all 3 FPs). So maybe 11 now?
We first suspected Disney was cutting ride capacity/staffing back in late summer 2015, when wait times increased much faster than attendance possibly could. Here's a chart from last year showing the increase in wait times since 2010, at all four WDW parks:
As of late 2017, wait times were up 20% to 60% from 2014/2015. There is zero chance - none at all - that attendance is up that much.
We factor those cuts into our crowd calendar models.
The differences we saw in January 2018 were beyond those cuts. As I've said, we think some of that was a better economy and postponed trips from September's hurricane. Universal's wait times were higher than expected, too, which would point to a general trend across Orlando. But Disney's wait times were much higher.
We didn't arrive at a cause of reduced capacity until the first week of February, when we started counting riders. View the numbers below with some skepticism. Also, we focused on headliners with high capacity, so changes at attractions like Mad Tea Party wouldn't be picked up through rider counts.
Seven Dwarfs Mine Train Average Riders/Hour After 2/21: 1,443 Before 2/21: 1,103 (-24%)
Big Thunder (WDW) After 2/21: 1,570 Before: 1,232 (-22%)
Buzz Lightyear (WDW) After 2/21: 1,813 Before: 1,351 (-25%)
Space Mountain (WDW) After 2/21: 1,620 Before: 1,443 (-11%)
Those numbers exclude obvious breakdowns, of which this week has been notable. It includes wheelchair stops, which seem to be consistent. The numbers are measured during the same time window across days.
Rides that seem about the same: Haunted Mansion (WDW and DLR), Small World (DLR), Dinosaur, Expedition Everest, Pirates (WDW and DLR), Star Tours (WDW and DLR), Toy Story (WDW at 2/3rds capacity), Soarin' (WDW), and Jungle Cruise (DLR).
Capacities at Rock 'n' Roller Coaster and Space Mountain (DLR) haven't been consistent, and we're trying to figure out why. Splash (WDW) wasn't up enough to measure. Kilimanjaro Safaris has unpredictable animal slowdowns, but generally looks consistent.
In the case of 7DMT, BTMRR, and Space (WDW), the reduced capacity was from running fewer ride vehicles on the track, which is fairly easy to see. For 7DMT, where people line up an hour before the park opens, it's hard to come up with a good reason ever to run the ride at less than 100% capacity. To see 3 trains running instead of 5 should raise some questions.
It's possible that those older rides (especially Space) were running at reduced capacity simply because they break down too often when run at 100% capacity for days on end. Space, Tower, and Test Track are among the most breakdown-prone in WDW.
Management might look at 85% capacity all day as better than 0% capacity for an hour - the chaos from rescheduled FP+ reservations alone would probably be enough to make that decision, especially at Epcot and DHS, which have fewer headliners to spread out crowds.
Last point for this post: The reason why I'm talking about reduced capacity is that we (touringplans) try to understand the causes when our models are wrong, and explain them. As a businessperson, I totally understand Disney's motivation for doing it. One of our goals with TP has always been transparency and objectivity with the data, and that's what we're trying to do with these conversations.
threvester
Well-Known Member
Do people really wait in standby? Refresh the app people.._fastpasses are abundant
HauntedMansionFLA
Well-Known Member
The parks are packed especially the Magic Kingdom. People everywhere. Either a marathon going on or several cheerleading national championships. Lots from across the pond.
Jenny72
Well-Known Member
Ok, this definitely confirms my impression over the years. I thought I must be going crazy, or just going at all the wrong times.
And yes, some people wait in standby. Idiots like me, I guess. I don't have a smartphone and don't particularly want to have to be staring at one to get on a ride. Bleah.
And yes, some people wait in standby. Idiots like me, I guess. I don't have a smartphone and don't particularly want to have to be staring at one to get on a ride. Bleah.
DisneyMann
Active Member
The Wed-Sat before the pro bowl was the worst crowds I've ever experienced. That significant changed the historic late January numbers.
When SSE runs @ 45-75 not throughout the day, that's insane for a predicted slow time let alone any other time. TP data is so out of touch IMO.
When SSE runs @ 45-75 not throughout the day, that's insane for a predicted slow time let alone any other time. TP data is so out of touch IMO.
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