Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are not running attractions with reduced staffing or reduced attraction hourly capacity. It's just that the parks are THAT busy. I've been talking to my friends over at Universal Orlando and they've been telling me that the parks have actually been going over projections for how many guests they are getting. Venues have been having to call employees to come in on non-scheduled days. They don't even know where the crowds are coming from either, and I'm hearing this from multiple departments. The rule of thumb for most of these parks is that you can gauge a crowd based off historic wait times (not by using a crowd calendar or estimator) but by looking at the actual wait times of the attractions. A good example of that at Epcot is Imagination, when you see that attraction posting higher than 10mn you know it's a very busy day or SSE where you can see it hit 25mn+ on the weekend with really only 4 people operating the attraction with others as greeter or Project tomorrow. There is no busy season anymore and there is no slow season. It's all just a season, and that's where they achieve in their tiered pricing, they are able to not have any form of fluctuation in guest numbers. In terms of guest numbers look at it this way... if you wanted to come in for a 4 or 5 day vacation you would rather come in when it's cheaper, Monday - Friday where it's value or regular. Then you have those who want to come in when their free and pay for Peak tickets. You also have those with APs who with the ever increasing pricing of the tickets feel like they have to come in to get more of their value.


Here is a bit more of the psychology of three tier pricing.
http://www.channeldynamics.com.au/channel_dynamics/the-value-of-a-three-tier-pricing-strategy
https://www.jeremysaid.com/blog/customers-will-choose-middle-offer/
http://changingminds.org/disciplines/marketing/pricing/three-tier_pricing.htm

I think reduced capacity/maintenance is a small part of it...I'm more of the school that they simply have way more people than attractions to comfortably handle them.

They had a huge lead after the 90's expansions...
...that surplus is most definitely a deficit now. It's funny how 15 mil or so extra customers will do that...

 

[lazyboy97o]

Nope. It all depends on how WDW is choosing to handle the crowds and staffing. Pretty sure someone (@WDW1974 maybe) said that WDW management had determined the magical number of attractions a guest wanted to experience a day to get value for their admission, which I think was 14.

Guests rate their day as satisfied if they have 7-8 experiences, a category that is broader than attractions and includes parades, nighttime spectaculars and meet and greets. This is that Disney is trying to push. You can also see how it shaped the build out of Disney’s Animal Kingdom, Disney’s California Adventure and Walt Disney Studios Park.

I don't believe they have, personally. But I'll wait and read more before forming a solid opinion

@lentesta has posted about this before.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In the podcast, Len mentions that the number of brazilians actually has a relatively negligible effect on overall numbers. If the entire Brazilian tourist base visiting the US varied by even 50%, it would actually be a very small change in WDW total attendance.

I can't believe somebody typed "blame Brazil"...those tour groups are an important, but not nearly huge part of the the business

 

[Gringrinngghost]

I can't believe somebody typed "blame Brazil"...those tour groups are an important, but not nearly huge part of the the business

They are actually the reason behind the Fast and the Furious attraction at Universal. South America seems to the current target demographic. Fast has a huge appeal in south america.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Walt Disney World has been seeing increases in waits and crowding that outpace its increases in attendance.

It's not a linear relationship. If a ride is operating below capacity, increased attendance can be absorbed without increasing wait times. If a ride is operating at capacity, 100% of the increased attendance will translate to increased wait times and crowding. If capacity is (relatively) fixed, a 10% increase in attendance will necessarily result in a greater than 10% increase of wait times and crowding. That's just the math.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

I think reduced capacity/maintenance is a small part of it...I'm more of the school that they simply have way more people than attractions to comfortably handle them.

Part of it could be seen with DHS being really just a half day park as well. DHS is at a really reduced capacity.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Part of it could be seen with DHS being really just a half day park as well. DHS is at a really reduced capacity.

Yes...but what they closed was low draw crap anyway!!! It was never built out and the bill has come due...dak too, but now to a lesser extent

 

[lazyboy97o]

It's not a linear relationship. If a ride is operating below capacity, increased attendance can be absorbed without increasing wait times. If a ride is operating at capacity, 100% of the increased attendance will translate to increased wait times and crowding. If capacity is (relatively) fixed, a 10% increase in attendance will necessarily result in a greater than 10% increase of wait times and crowding. That's just the math.

We’re not talking about a single attraction. This is attractions across property (including ones with a relatively fixed capacity) with a data set that now goes back years.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are actually the reason behind the Fast and the Furious attraction at Universal. South America seems to the current target demographic. Fast has a huge appeal in south america.

But the raw numbers at wdw are just a sliver of the pie.

I am very critical...but you know there's nothing to criticize about how they track/handle data. Nobody is better

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Fun little metrics:

WDW Pricing Calendar by days

2016*:
Value: 44
Regular: 165
Peak: 71

2017:
Value: 86
Regular: 162
Peak: 117

2018:
Value: 85
Regular: 205
Peak: 75

*February 28th introduced the tiered pricing model

 

[rle4lunch]

I just listened to a podcast from DISUnplugged featuring @lentesta discussing the crowds so far in 2018. I highly recommend listening to it, his information was very interesting.

Apparently his wait time projections were significantly off for the start of 2018. Particularly, wait times in January were worse than almost any month in all of 2017. The thought of wait times in January being close to Christmas level is insane.

After analyzing the data from many angles they came to the conclusion that Disney is running the parks with reduced staffing, and consequently reduced attraction hourly capacity, resulting in longer wait times even though there might be fewer guests than normal.

He goes on to mention a few different motivations Disney may have for doing this, including the obvious reason being that they are simply saving money to the more complex thought that they might be trying to artificially control apparent crowd levels in order to justify price increases and ticket price yielding.

I hadn’t seen this being discussed anywhere on here so I thought I’d mention it. Hopefully Len will chime in, I think it’s a topic worthy of discussion.

I know personally the increased crowd levels over the past decade have really made my trips less enjoyable. We used to enjoy visiting in the off season and with the seemingly constant crowding there is now, I find my trips less enjoyable. Disney is going to reach a breaking point somewhere with this kind of management. I know for me, that point is rapidly approaching.

I can verify this. We were there from 21-29 January, and it was just as bad, if not worse than Christmas crowd levels. We specifically picked that week due to the historical analysis showing it's the slowest of the year. Not so!

We usually go around the first week of December but the last 2 times we did that they were also crazy crowded. That used to be the slowet time too. I really think that they've increased max capacities as well. We won't even attend the halloween or christmas parties anymore due to the overcrowding. If we wanted to be in a packed nightclub on Halloween we'd do that. It feels the same at the parks now. sad.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Fun little metrics:

WDW Pricing Calendar by days

2016*:
Value: 44
Regular: 165
Peak: 71

2017:
Value: 86
Regular: 162
Peak: 117

2018:
Value: 85
Regular: 205
Peak: 75

*February 28th introduced the tiered pricing model

But if you increase the prices across the board...the categories mean next to nothing...they are artificial anyway.

There's also a PR danger to Disbey for too many peak days...it could impact sales

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can verify this. We were there from 21-29 January, and it was just as bad, if not worse than Christmas crowd levels. We specifically picked that week due to the historical analysis showing it's the slowest of the year. Not so!

We usually go around the first week of December but the last 2 times we did that they were also crazy crowded. That used to be the slowet time too. I really think that they've increased max capacities as well. We won't even attend the halloween or christmas parties anymore due to the overcrowding. If we wanted to be in a packed nightclub on Halloween we'd do that. It feels the same at the parks now. sad.

...my sword is yours, My King

 

[Gringrinngghost]

But if you increase the prices across the board...the categories mean next to nothing...they are artificial anyway.

There's also a PR danger to Disbey for too many peak days...it could impact sales

I only posted them to show that Disney is and/or has found the sweet spot.

 

[cdeev8690]

I've been using Touring Plans for my trips over the last two years and have always found it to be a useful tool. I first purchased the Unofficial Guide in 2016 and still use it to check up on some things I'm not clear about. I frequent their blog and I appreciate their transparency. They post about their days/weeks in review in regards to their crowd predictions and explain what could have affected the inaccurate prediction.

I have tracked days before ahead of my visits and receive emails if/when park hours and crowd predictions change. I have used their dining reservation tool every visit (works flawlessly), have used Lines while touring around the park, and use their room finder tool to pick the perfect room for my stay followed by their fax request tool.

This applies to everything : not all technology is perfect. A prediction is just that, A PREDICTION. Touring Plans is adjusting to Disney's BS but honestly, how could you have predicted that an historically slow time of year would produce Christmas-level madness? Live and learn. There's no slow time. We're all rolling the dice. I will still use the tool for my trip planning and my in-park itinerary. Crowd Level Prediction should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I only posted them to show that Disney is and/or has found the sweet spot.

I hear ya...just throwing another shrimp on the Barbie

 

[RSD Part Deux]

I go every January and February. Typically the crowds are very thin and most rides (aside from the typicals) are walk on. This year the crowds seemed thin. Didnt seem any different. However the wait times were horrendous. I’m talking about posted times and the actual times spent in line ups. They were way out of character for this time of year, and the apparent crowd levels. In my other posts, I noted first hand accounts of stafffing levels that were cut and attractions not runnning in anything near full capacity. Maybe 50% at best.

 

[lentesta]

It's not a linear relationship. If a ride is operating below capacity, increased attendance can be absorbed without increasing wait times. If a ride is operating at capacity, 100% of the increased attendance will translate to increased wait times and crowding. If capacity is (relatively) fixed, a 10% increase in attendance will necessarily result in a greater than 10% increase of wait times and crowding. That's just the math.

Can you show the math for this? For one attraction, linear increases in attendance should have linear increases in wait times, everything else constant.

Still on a plane, so lack of oxygen might be affecting my brain.

 

[larryz]

Well, the best we can hope for is that word is out that there is no slow season at WDW any more, and so people will surmise that if it doesn't matter when they go, they might as well plan their trips for cooler weather, thus making Oct - Mar the new summer, and conversely, May - Sep the new "off season."

 

[Rider]

Having lived in Orlando for 7 years now I can tell you that things everywhere are just busier. Disney, Universal and other businesses around central Florida. I think it's mostly a good economy driving more tourism. Hell even my job which is completely unrelated to tourism had a January 2018 that was just as busy (if not worse) as our busy December 2017.

I used to be able to go to Animal Kingdom around noon and breeze in. Now the last few times I've been this year the parking lots are nearly full by noon. Three weeks ago they were already needing to find spots where people had left because all the rows had been filled. At noon! That isn't "reduced staff" that's a crazy number of people.

Same at Universal. I could roll into Prime parking at 4pm and get a nice spot close to the bridge. Now I am always forced to park in the far back corner because the garage is packed.