Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m no tax expert, but I know there were more complicated issues involving taxable benefits and hours required to receive discounts. The “gaming of the system” argument was the PC way to smooth it over. Most CTs were not locals, and were former CPs who traveled to Florida specifically to work a few hours during breaks. Of course, you can only take my word for it on a forum.

Exaclty...minimal hours for tickets and discounts...that's a really old trick.

If you're local and want to work "part time"...you can do that.

"I'm on break from Syracuse" provides no benefit to the operator...it's actually a losing scenario...unlike college program which is temporary serfdom.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Merch sales are down because the market is oversaturated, and the theme parks merchandise is overpriced and rather generic. I can go to Amazon, Target, Kohl’s, the Disney Store, Macy’s, Hot Topic, and more and get Disney clothing that’s priced better than what’s in the parks.

I don't disagree with your theory...I also don't know if it's so clearly defined.

But here's what WAS defined: the $24 mickey plush sewn in a sweatshop behind SDL and shipped for a grand total of $1.15...is where the bulk of the walkway profit from disney parks has been generated than decades...

"Revenue" is an ambiguous term..."profit"
Is not.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Times for my 2 cents
My husband and I were at WDW 2/27 to 3/7/18, and the parks did not look very busy to me, BUT the wait times for SM at MK never got below 60 minutes while we were there. Fantasyland was worse, and I felt sorry for all those frustrated parents and children. The wait times were not good at all. When I showed my family the park pictures, they all said that the parks didn't look crowded to them. That made me take another look and, yes, they were right. The parks did not look crowded, but the ride waits were very long.
Then I watched Len Testa's podcast and now know what's going on. What a shame.

As for the comments of decreased merchandise sales, I have bought a Mickey hoodie, and 2 t shirts at our local resale/thrift store. I have had great comments on all of them. I didn't buy any clothes this time, which is unusual for me. I'm happy with my value thrift store buys
Just a side note: I noticed ALOT of people with frowns on their faces, and looking stressed out. Not many smiles at WDW while we were there. I noticed a lot of people looking at their cell phones while in line and while walking, and were probably trying to find more fp's, which has to make it more stressful and less enjoyable = no time to enjoy the world in real time.

 

[jencor]

We were there the first two weeks of December and crowds I thought the crowds were bad. We did use Touring Guide and though I think they are a good guideline, I thought they were really off. We got email updates through the whole trip and even got one that changed the crowd levels through the next 5 days. What was frustrating was that levels went up everywhere and even one for the next day went from a 5 to an 8. That did not help in our planning. It was too late to change all our plans at that point. Others went from a 4 to 6. I have been using Touring Guide for years on my trips and like I said, I use it as a help, but not as my only source and decision maker. I will admit that I will not continue with them, but not due to them, but due to the fact that WDW has just gotten too busy for me and not certain when we will return. We will come back, just not as often as we did.

 

[Nubs70]

just throwing this out here but wouldnt Disney want people not in lines but out in the park spending money?

Yes they would prefer people spending money. However, customers have already left a good portion of merch/food money at admission. So instead the customer is not in line nor in stores buying generic park merch. This also leads to the congested park feeling.

 

[Noralou]

While this thread is making me stress some about my upcoming trip in 2 days, I am glad it is being discussed and is leading me to lower my expectations so that I am not as disappointed when I get to WDW. Will the discussion and those that read it lead to change on the part of Disney? Doubtful but having light shown on what is going on is a good thing.

There are a lot of other fun sounding things to do other than get on attractions at WDW, but so many of those experiences cost much more than what I can afford. Not sure if a motivation behind cutting capacity is to get people to buy experiences not included in an admission ticket, but it certainly seems pausible. I often think about how money/other experiences would help enhance a trip there for me if the lines got too long.

 

[LSLS]

“ I saw the real standby at 21 minutes while the display was at 30-45. If only someone could find a way to access the real numbers as a site/app.”
We were there MLK week and crowds were as expected for the holiday, but I did tell my husband it was more crowded than (when we went for a wedding) 2 years ago. I saw the 2 wait times at the final kiosk on sorter Pan and the wait time was 20-30 minutes (can remember exact time) less than posted. One time was in red and the other in green

You know, now that i think of it, the wait time for 7 Dwarfs said 100 minutes, the person at the front told us expect 120. We went on anyways partly because our little one really wanted to ride it for the first time, and partly because the 100 minutes was a drop from the rest of the day so we took a guess that maybe the wait time was decreasing. It took us 25 minutes to get on the ride. The people behind us had the red card. The front sign never changed. While I still think the ride breakdowns are having a big impact, I am definitely starting to believe there is a large part of this resulting from the inflating of ride times for whatever reason.

 

[Bairstow]

Times for my 2 cents
My husband and I were at WDW 2/27 to 3/7/18, and the parks did not look very busy to me, BUT the wait times for SM at MK never got below 60 minutes while we were there. Fantasyland was worse, and I felt sorry for all those frustrated parents and children. The wait times were not good at all. When I showed my family the park pictures, they all said that the parks didn't look crowded to them. That made me take another look and, yes, they were right. The parks did not look crowded, but the ride waits were very long.
Then I watched Len Testa's podcast and now know what's going on. What a shame.

As for the comments of decreased merchandise sales, I have bought a Mickey hoodie, and 2 t shirts at our local resale/thrift store. I have had great comments on all of them. I didn't buy any clothes this time, which is unusual for me. I'm happy with my value thrift store buys
Just a side note: I noticed ALOT of people with frowns on their faces, and looking stressed out. Not many smiles at WDW while we were there. I noticed a lot of people looking at their cell phones while in line and while walking, and were probably trying to find more fp's, which has to make it more stressful and less enjoyable = no time to enjoy the world in real time.

Just got back from a trip that picked up where you left off- 3/8 3/12.
I don't have a good empirical way of comparing crowd sizes to previous trips, but everything certainly seemed more crowded. This was definitely the first time I've ever had to wait in line for the Magic Kingdom Little Mermaid ride, which I had always seen as a walk-up. This time it was around 15 minutes in the middle of the day.

Managed to do Flight of Passage twice, once just after rope drop and again by getting in line just before park close- 1:30 and :45 minutes, respectively.
This was the first time I had been at Disney and had someone in our party with need of a DAS pass, and we made prodigious use of it to do things like Soarin and Frozen.

While I don't at all ascribe to Testa's conspiracy theory about Disney intentionally tamping down on ride capacity to justify price increases, I do think there may be some kind of fundamental shift going on, if not in crowd sizes then in crowd behavior. It feels as though more and more second and third-tier attractions are being utilized by more guests- stuff like Muppets, Philharmagic, Mermaid, all the Animal Kingdom shows, etc., were always full capacity at every show we saw, while big headliners (with the exception of the Avatar stuff) wasn't going into the 2-hour plus range like you would expect on a big day. This is with one notable exception- for the entire time we were there Tower of Terror was down to the Foxtrot shaft, which meant that the standby queue essentially never moved- CM's made it clear that the standby queue- which ran only to the bottom of the hill, was going to be an "up to 4 hour" prospect. Maybe what we're seeing now is a combination of the average Disney guest being more savvy and of the old "park commando" mindset and MyDisneyExperience proactively educating guests about all the things they could see and do that they might otherwise overlook. If that's true, Disney's efforts to steer the average guest towards thing that had been previously under-utilized is working, but this has the added side-effect of making the park harder to negotiate for the veteran guest, because there are almost no overlooked areas of the park anymore.

 

[George]

I actually talked to the staff who were working at WDW this January. Barbara, Phil, and Nate were quite offended by this thread. They felt like they kept on top of things. Nate did feel like he got behind in the evenings manning the restaurants (the drive time killed him), but overall they feel like they did well.

 

[mickeysaver]

We were there the first two weeks of December and crowds I thought the crowds were bad. We did use Touring Guide and though I think they are a good guideline, I thought they were really off. We got email updates through the whole trip and even got one that changed the crowd levels through the next 5 days. What was frustrating was that levels went up everywhere and even one for the next day went from a 5 to an 8. That did not help in our planning. It was too late to change all our plans at that point. Others went from a 4 to 6. I have been using Touring Guide for years on my trips and like I said, I use it as a help, but not as my only source and decision maker. I will admit that I will not continue with them, but not due to them, but due to the fact that WDW has just gotten too busy for me and not certain when we will return. We will come back, just not as often as we did.

We had much the same experience. I was seriously shocked by the crowd levels based on personal past history and the absolute failure that the crowd predictions were based on how reliable that I had found the service to be on past trips. I was suddenly at crowd level 9 parks when originally I was expecting a 6. I am good with 6's, but if I see 9's, I am not booking. We both have disabilities and it's just not fun for us to be stuck in those crowds, in the cold, for days on end. I was actually glad to be leaving WDW. I have never felt that way before. I hated having to use my phone all of the time. I go to WDW to escape reality, not be forced to remain in it.

With the newest round of announced changes at the resorts, I honestly can not see us going back anytime soon. I never thought that I would say that. I went pretty much annually, if not more than once a year for the early part of the 2000's. I had an AP for 2011, 2012, and 2013 as a FL resident. I have logged hundreds of days at the parks. It breaks my heart to see the nickel and dime, the lack of drive to be exceptional rather than just meeting industry standards, and I am basically getting too old to put up with the crowds being what they are seemingly all of the time now. I am glad that I had the time that I have had at WDW, but future days in the parks are probably less than a dozen between now and the grave. sigh

 

[larryz]

I actually talked to the staff who were working at WDW this January. Barbara, Phil, and Nate were quite offended by this thread. They felt like they kept on top of things. Nate did feel like he got behind in the evenings manning the restaurants (the drive time killed him), but overall they feel like they did well.

If they don't want people talking about issues like this, I recommend they be imaginative and innovative, and do something about it. People are paying more than ever to get into the parks, and are spending more time than ever in lines waiting for, with a few exceptions, the same old rides that have always been there.

 

[xdan0920]

If they don't want people talking about issues like this, I recommend they be imaginative and innovative, and do something about it. People are paying more than ever to get into the parks, and are spending more time than ever in lines waiting for, with a few exceptions, the same old rides that have always been there.

 

[GeneralZod]

And some of us have adopted the end strategy from 'War Games'

WOPR:The only way to win is not to play the game....

I've stopped playing the Disney game.

Is there any chance soon you plan on stopping playing the Disney forum game?

 

[MuteSuperstar]

Just a side note: I noticed ALOT of people with frowns on their faces, and looking stressed out. Not many smiles at WDW while we were there. I noticed a lot of people looking at their cell phones while in line and while walking, and were probably trying to find more fp's, which has to make it more stressful and less enjoyable = no time to enjoy the world in real time.

This this this. Of course this too gets waved away with "well this is just the way the world is now"....and yeah, it is. And it's thoroughly depressing.

 

[Brad Bishop]

An interesting question...

My thought...for a long time (you've read it before)...is that the mechandise sales are starting to diminish greatly and they know it. If true...that could mean that they predict cost cutting/price gouging to be a better long term course...

Just a theory.

I think that this is true. They used to have unique items at the parks. Now it's T-shirts, plush, and hats for the most part. They have the "Art of Disney" stores which are nice and are a bit more upscale along with the crystal/glass store on Main St but, for the most part, the merch is the same everywhere, even in the resorts which used to have specialized merch.

How many times can you go and buy another hat, T-shirt, whatever? There's a point to where you were probably going to buy it on your way out of the park, anyway, so having you stand in a queue isn't as big of a deal.

Remember that the original intent of the Fast Pass was for a better guest experience. Yeah, they said it kept people shopping instead of waiting but, at the same time, you're probably going to eat about the same and spend close to the same whether you're in a line or not.

Add to it that they've been cutting back on staff for a while, now, and having just watched the Dis Unplugged episode in question, it sounds likes Len is on track with his suspicion of reducing hours to make the parks feel busier which helps with tiered pricing. It makes a lot of sense with the current management.

 

[Brad Bishop]

Just a side note: I noticed ALOT of people with frowns on their faces, and looking stressed out. Not many smiles at WDW while we were there. I noticed a lot of people looking at their cell phones while in line and while walking, and were probably trying to find more fp's, which has to make it more stressful and less enjoyable = no time to enjoy the world in real time.

I think, long term, this is a huge problem for Disney. Most people go to WDW because of nostalgia. It's a nice place and all that but they remember it from being kids and it gives them warm fuzzies. This is passed down generationally and, while you can bump up profits in the short term by reducing staff and charging more, you start to give families bad experiences and you lose that generational gear in your business model which can't be shown on a spreadsheet.

Add to it the word of mouth stuff. If you go to WDW, spend a bunch of money, and come back and complain about how expensive it was and how you couldn't ride anything because of the lines and maybe it looked a little dirtier and then a few things happen:

You feel a bit stupid dumping that much cash into a bad experience. I hit this a few years back with table service dining at WDW. I used to like it and would have a TS meal each night of my many trips, then the prices went up and the quality went down and all I was left with was, "I was stupid to pay that much for a lousy to mediocre (at best) experience." I started eating off-site but, at the same time, I was experiencing the same cost/value problem just in my overall daily visits until I reached the point that I stopped going.

Now, I don't go unless it's free (winning tickets at work, maybe). Even then my attitude is, "Do I really want to bother?" This is coming from a past AP holder for nearly a decade. That's not good. Add to it that I don't speak openly any longer about how great I think WDW is and, at the same time, if the conversation comes up, I'll talk about how it's not as great as it used to be but at least it's more expensive. That's a negative impact on others who may be considering taking their families to WDW.

I'm not trying to ruin Disney, it's just that, yeah, it's not the same value it used to be and you can rattle on about "..Disney is a business..." which is great but I'm not going back and I don't have a lot of good things to say about the experience. That's a problem, in my eyes, because I'm not alone.

Something to consider: Fast Passes were a big success because they gave the park-goer a positive experience and they went back and told their family and friends what a great time that they had and how fantastic it all was. I don't think that's the case any longer. You have your die-hard Disney fans who will think it's great no matter what but what WDW has done with staff cuts, increased prices, and other money grabs is shaven off a good number of folks that used to be pretty hooked to the pixie dust and landed where I am now.

Going forward, I think there's a good chance that the business decisions that are being made now (Disney is a business!!) are going to have some real adverse effects a generation out. That's OK for now because the current spreadsheets look great!

 

[ford91exploder]

Yes they would prefer people spending money. However, customers have already left a good portion of merch/food money at admission. So instead the customer is not in line nor in stores buying generic park merch. This also leads to the congested park feeling.

Disney has forgotten that vacation dollars are indeed a 'Zero Sum Game'

 

[Clowd Nyne]

Just kicking the tires on this because my DW made an interesting point. With the way Disney is handeling the union contract negotiations by pulling the $1000 bonus from the employees that didn’t ratify their offer would it be that far fetched that they are cutting back hours to put even more pressure on front line employees to get a deal done? It made sense to me, but it would be pretty crappy to do things at the expense of the employees and the customers just for the bottom line. I’m sorry if I stir up a debate.

 

[The_Jobu]

Just kicking the tires on this because my DW made an interesting point. With the way Disney is handeling the union contract negotiations by pulling the $1000 bonus from the employees that didn’t ratify their offer would it be that far fetched that they are cutting back hours to put even more pressure on front line employees to get a deal done? It made sense to me, but it would be pretty crappy to do things at the expense of the employees and the customers just for the bottom line. I’m sorry if I stir up a debate.

I wouldn't be shocked if this was the case. That's already a bad sign.

 

[The_Jobu]

Amusing side note: Been watching my usual vlogers and I've seen frequent complaints that the line ups for Food and Garden kiosks are huge with only one person working the booth.

Make what you will.