Len Testa Crowd Analysis

mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
flynnibus said:
So you are now suggesting their are actually just as many people in Orlando in January as there is at peak time now?? Because the park is actually at saturation?

Or is it capacity is down... due to artificial scarcity

Because if it is as you want to keep defending.... run far away when it actually gets to REAL tourist season. If wdw canā€™t avoid saturation in January... what happens at Easter?

Your argument just reenforces that Disney isnā€™t running at the right capacity it needs to
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Or a combination of the two. Disney is staffing less capacity based on their projections, along with an increase in crowds.
 
mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
flynnibus said:
You skipped the part where touringplans verified ride throughput is down. Thatā€™s the smoking gun that everyoneā€™s anecdotal comments about seasons, experiences etc miss.
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Down in comparison with what? Yes, it's down but we don't know if it's down compared to last year at the same time.
 
Jenny72

Jenny72

Well-Known Member
I think the point is that it's not running as many people through as it could, and should. Even if it were the case that they were running it at the same throughput as last year, they should know that this clearly isn't enough. They should either have known in advance that crowds were going to be higher (based on all the data they have), or if they didn't, scrambled to put extra people on fast. They're clearly erring on the side of doing too little rather than erring on the side of having low wait times.
 
mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
Jenny72 said:
I think the point is that it's not running as many people through as it could, and should. Even if it were the case that they were running it at the same throughput as last year, they should know that this clearly isn't enough. They should either have known in advance that crowds were going to be higher (based on all the data they have), or if they didn't, scrambled to put extra people on fast. They're clearly erring on the side of doing too little rather than erring on the side of having low wait times.
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The scrambling is harder than you may think. It can take weeks to get new staff on board and trained.
 
the.dreamfinder

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
From a 1975 WDP report on Oriental Disneyland
Oriental Disneyland will appeal to all residents and tourists of Japan; however, it is projected to capture substantial support from residents of and tourists to the Kanto District. A major portion (30%) of Japanā€™s population, or some 33 million people, live in this district. As a comparison, this is equivalent to three times the population in Disneylandā€™s (CA) USA major market area. While many of the visitors would originate from the Kanto District, Japanā€™s excellent public transportation system will make Oriental Disneyland easily accessible to all areas of the country, and thus it will become, in effect, a national recreation leisure-time area.

Based on an analysis of Japanā€™s leisure demand, the potential market demand for Oriental Disneyland is projected to be 17.0 million visitors during the first year of operation. Market demand is projected to grow to 21.3 million visitors by the sixth year of operation. It is expected that attendance to Oriental Disneyland will initially be subject to established Japanese leisure seasonal characteristics. Accordingly, peak attendance would occur during January, April, May and July-August, coinciding with annual school and work vacations and national holiday periods. Also as a result of work and school schedules, weekend days, especially Sunday, will be extremely active times.

During the initial operating years, extreme peaking demand will occur due to the above influence. However, marketing programs and the trend towards a shorter work week and longer vacation periods will tend to spread demand over the entire year as the project matures. Also, due to climatic conditions during the winter months, winter weekdays may experience low volumes of attendance. As a result, it is expected that Oriental Disneyland may operate on a five day schedule during this period resulting in a 300-day annual operating schedule during the inital years. Such a schedule approximates that of Disneyland in California.

As previously indicated, an annual market demand of 17.0 million visitors to a Disney-designed theme park is feasible for the Oriental Land site. To accomdate this demand, recognizing the seasonal and daily visitation patterns, would require a theme park with a capacity to handle 125,000 daily visitors. To properly accomodate this visitation, the park must be designed with the number of attractions, shows and rides required to provide a capacity over 100,000 guests per hour. This capacity is defined as theoretical hourly ride capacity (THRC) and is the basic determinate in sizing theme park facilities.

A park of over 100,000 THRC would exceed the opening day capacity of Walt Disney World by more than two times. For reasons of effective utilization of attraction capacity during all periods of the year and considering market financial and operating implications, it is recommended that a project of such magnitude should not be undertaken during the initial phase of the recreational development of the Oriental Land site. Instead, it is recommended that a park with an initial 45,000 THRC be established as the design criteria. This park would be programmed for expansion to 60,000 THRC within the first five years. Such a program will result in a theme park with the capacity of 52,000 to 69,000 visitors per day which will accomdate a range of up to 12 to 15 million visitors annually. Ultimately, as demand warrants, additional attractions may be added, thereby increasing ride capacity. A THRC of 110,000 would be sufficient to cover 21 Million annual visitors.
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Jenny72

Jenny72

Well-Known Member
Do we really think that all of this boils down to Disney being surprised a few weeks ago? This has been a growing problem over time, not just a couple of weeks. Even if it were true that they're working as hard as they can to add staff because of how many offsite, non-FP-prebooking people came all at once (hmm), there's no excuse for how bad this has gotten over time. Either we have to assume that they're basically incompetent at trying to judge how many people will attend the park, or we have to assume that they're willing to make customers have a worse experience for a profit. Or both. In either case, based on their new pricing policies, etc. they should have known that this was a possibility and prepared beforehand. It doesn't make sense to argue that they're both supercompetent and supergenerous but this still happened.
 
mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
Jenny72 said:
Do we really think that all of this boils down to Disney being surprised a few weeks ago? This has been a growing problem over time, not just a couple of weeks. Even if it were true that they're working as hard as they can to add staff because of how many offsite, non-FP-prebooking people came all at once (hmm), there's no excuse for how bad this has gotten over time. Either we have to assume that they're basically incompetent at trying to judge how many people will attend the park, or we have to assume that they're willing to make customers have a worse experience for a profit. Or both. In either case, based on their new pricing policies, etc. they should have known that this was a possibility and prepared beforehand. It doesn't make sense to argue that they're both supercompetent and supergenerous but this still happened.
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I'm arguing that they are competent but a) they tried to cut things too close, and b) were caught off guard because the trend this year was a bit different than years' past. I've been stalking the wait times over the past two weeks and wait times have been lower over the past two weeks than they were in January. So maybe Disney realized that there was a real problem here and staffed back up?
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
mikejs78 said:
Or a combination of the two. Disney is staffing less capacity based on their projections, along with an increase in crowds.
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Again... if this was simply an 'oops' - Disney would have corrected. This is not a few day sample... this is a progressing TREND, for which Disney has the ability to turn around. But has not.

Attendance at this time of year is WAY BELOW maximum. So its within Disney's abilities with existing services to combat any such 'unexpected increases'. But instead the trend is ACCELERATING.

What's the defense for that again??
 
mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
larandtra said:
With all of the information available on the internet and elsewhere, I am still surprised as to why people pay money for others to plan their trips or provide information you can generally find on your own. Those "crowd calendars" arent worth the paper they are printed on. Highly inaccurate as things change so often. Park hours change the day before, added hours, special events, etc. Its silly. Quit wasting money and plan your own trips.
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I don't find it a waste. TouringPlans crowd estimates have been far more accurate than any our there on the internet because he has a huge data operation going. This time it failed because something changed. What's it to you if some of us find their tools valuable?
 
mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
flynnibus said:
Again... if this was simply an 'oops' - Disney would have corrected. This is not a few day sample... this is a progressing TREND, for which Disney has the ability to turn around. But has not.

Attendance at this time of year is WAY BELOW maximum. So its within Disney's abilities with existing services to combat any such 'unexpected increases'. But instead the trend is ACCELERATING.

What's the defense for that again??
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That's not what Len said - this was a rather sudden increase.
 

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