Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[lazyboy97o]

Sure, fine. And what is the trend, exactly, that you're referring to?

Wait times increasing greater than attendance.

 

[flynnibus]

Sure, fine. And what is the trend, exactly, that you're referring to?

Re-read this - https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/len-testa-crowd-analysis.938751/page-8#post-8112529

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Evidence? Don't forget there are a lot.of seasonal / college part year.employees.

There's hardly any...

One of the things that happened years ago was they expanded college program to compensate for CT...

And why not? They're cheaper (federally subsidized under the old Clinton plans), on their parents insurance, not a care in the world, dump money back into the machine instead of car bills, insurance, mortgages, and the credit card/college loan payments that they're intentionally ignoring...

Winner, winner, chicken dinner

 

[mikejs78]

Re-read this - https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/len-testa-crowd-analysis.938751/page-8#post-8112529

Sure, point taken. I just think that there are probably multiple variables involved, not just a single one.

 

[flynnibus]

Sure, point taken. I just think that there are probably multiple variables involved, not just a single one.

People arent blamimg just a single source.
But multiple contributors but does not make it unsolvable or that they shouldnt have already if the outcome wasnt theit intent.

You keep harping on stuff that really doesnt change anything about the conclusion. That disney is letting this happen over an extended period of time.

 

[winstongator]

How much is it down by?

Take Dumbo, e.g., it can have both spinners running or just one. If it's just one, it's capacity has been reduced 50%. But other attractions, like Little Mermaid, don't have a half-capacity reduced staffing option.

Now, let's say half the attractions can be run at half capacity. The total capacity for the park is 25% down.

Is that enough to spike wait times to 60%? Yes indeed. The example you quoted from me works both ways. An increase in attendance can have a disproportionate effect on line wait once you pass the "tipping point."

In the same way, a small decrease in throughput, if it causes the park to hit its tipping point, can also have a disproportionate effect on wait times.

But, here are questions which I've asked and no one is answering, or has the info for:

• Didn't WDW reduce staff in the winter in previous years? Were they operating at full capacity in late January 2014? If it's the same reduced staffing as before, than the difference is the crowds, which if it is passing the tipping point, has an oversized impact on lines. Did TouringPlans discover that throughput is down more so this winter than last winter? Is the lowered throughput calculated by physically looking at the ride's operation or counting the number of people leaving the ride per hour, or being based on looking at the wait time, which can be affected by attendance numbers?
• When we're talking about reduced capacity by reduced staffing, by how much? Does reduced staffing mean a 10% cut in throughput? 30%? 60%?

Also, remember, winter time is refurb time, that is baked-in reduced throughput every winter.

I'm sure WDW is seeing the 60% jump in wait times, whether because of increased crowds or reduced staffing or a combination of both. The question here is: Are they scrambling to hire more people or not? And if they are, how fast can they restaff?

If you listen to the DISUnplugged podcast with Len, he mentions 5% as the amount of downtime that gets his model closer to what they've observed. It's some here and there, and some days a ride down 50%. Disney's 2016 annual report mentions efficiency improvements at domestic parks - take that for what it is. Attendance overall is up quite a bit since 2014 - probably 5% at MK, a lot more at AK, but Pandora absorbs a lot of that.

I did a rough estimate what a 1% staffing reduction would be. They've got ~63k employees, say 5/7 day shift, so 45k working each day, 2x share for MK, 1x Epcot, HS, AK, 2x for hotels total, so 45/7 = 6400, so MK is around 12,800 employees/day. A 1% reduction is 128 less employees per day. Say a half-day shift, that's 64 less CMs in the park.

Here's my question: what would people prefer, a reduction in staff increasing waits & degrading other service, or increases in ticket prices?

 

[drizgirl]

Here's my question: what would people prefer, a reduction in staff increasing waits & degrading other service, or increases in ticket prices?

But why does it always come down to that? The parks are quite profitable and they are trying to push the profit margin higher. What's an acceptable margin? Where does it end? If they want the margin 2 points higher this year, then why not 4 next year? It's not a zero sum game. They're trying to create more profit, not make ends meet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If you listen to the DISUnplugged podcast with Len, he mentions 5% as the amount of downtime that gets his model closer to what they've observed. It's some here and there, and some days a ride down 50%. Disney's 2016 annual report mentions efficiency improvements at domestic parks - take that for what it is. Attendance overall is up quite a bit since 2014 - probably 5% at MK, a lot more at AK, but Pandora absorbs a lot of that.

I did a rough estimate what a 1% staffing reduction would be. They've got ~63k employees, say 5/7 day shift, so 45k working each day, 2x share for MK, 1x Epcot, HS, AK, 2x for hotels total, so 45/7 = 6400, so MK is around 12,800 employees/day. A 1% reduction is 128 less employees per day. Say a half-day shift, that's 64 less CMs in the park.

Here's my question: what would people prefer, a reduction in staff increasing waits & degrading other service, or increases in ticket prices?

Well the problem is that the customer has been trained to accept either without any consequence to disney...which means Pandora's box is open because neither is appropriate or requirement within the operational model that was successful longterm

 

[LSLS]

Could rides breaking down have anything to do with this? Haven't listened to the podcast, but I know recently I saw Splash go down 3 times in one day (for hours at a time), Big Thunder go down twice, and Pirates is down. At AK, Dinosaurs and Safari both went down in one day. Not only does that pull people out of those ques and rides and dump them into a smaller pool of rides, all those fast pass holders get fast passes to the other rides as well, which then increases those waits. More anecdotal evidence, but I will say this is that recently when watching on the apps, I've noticed huge jumps in wait times for thinks like Space Mountain, Under the Sea, etc., but 7 dwarfs does not seem to have a large increase in wait time, and that is the one ride those extra fast passes are not good for.

 

[xdan0920]

Here's my question: what would people prefer, a reduction in staff increasing waits & degrading other service, or increases in ticket prices?

fOr rEaLz????? These are the two options? !!!!

Bee tee dubz.....

Disney is already raising ticket prices and reducing staff. So I guess from a guests perspective the answer to your question is neither. But to Disney the answer is BOTH!!! Pay me sucka!!!

 

[kong1802]

Here's my question: what would people prefer, a reduction in staff increasing waits & degrading other service, or increases in ticket prices?

As pointed out, we are getting both.

AP went up over 10%, right?

But for that extra money, you get half of the Speedway running until 11 with a 60 min wait. (I'm really stuck on this).

I'll take pay less get less, not pay more get less.

 

[disneyflush]

Here's my question: what would people prefer, a reduction in staff increasing waits & degrading other service, or increases in ticket prices?

I choose an increase in ticket prices. Was I right? Which one did Disney choose?

Lets focus on real world WDW and not hypothetical WDW where decisions are made in the best interests of the guests.

 

[twebber55]

just throwing this out here but wouldnt Disney want people not in lines but out in the park spending money?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

just throwing this out here but wouldnt Disney want people not in lines but out in the park spending money?

An interesting question...

My thought...for a long time (you've read it before)...is that the mechandise sales are starting to diminish greatly and they know it. If true...that could mean that they predict cost cutting/price gouging to be a better long term course...

Just a theory.

 

[sfbntpc]

“ I saw the real standby at 21 minutes while the display was at 30-45. If only someone could find a way to access the real numbers as a site/app.”
We were there MLK week and crowds were as expected for the holiday, but I did tell my husband it was more crowded than (when we went for a wedding) 2 years ago. I saw the 2 wait times at the final kiosk on sorter Pan and the wait time was 20-30 minutes (can remember exact time) less than posted. One time was in red and the other in green

 

[asianway]

You mentioned something that has been detrimental to staffing: Disney has lost a huge percentage of seasonal (CT—Casual Temporary) CMs. The changing tax laws and Obamacare health care affected that. I won’t get into details because it opens a huge can of worms, but even though some of the changes were based on local people’s working a couple shifts a year and taking advantage of free admission, the majority of CTs were college program alumni who returned during the summer and winter breaks for a dose of the Magic. When the requirements jumped to 150 hours every 6 months (and at least 300 hours/year), most of these college students couldn’t commit. CT staffing plummeted.

I thought it was all about eliminating the gaming of the system, first I heard of the ACA coming into play. How so? Most CTs wouldnt hit the 30, right?

Thanks

 

[ford91exploder]

Again... if this was simply an 'oops' - Disney would have corrected. This is not a few day sample... this is a progressing TREND, for which Disney has the ability to turn around. But has not.

Attendance at this time of year is WAY BELOW maximum. So its within Disney's abilities with existing services to combat any such 'unexpected increases'. But instead the trend is ACCELERATING.

What's the defense for that again??

The standard defense

'Disney is a Business'

 

[ford91exploder]

fOr rEaLz????? These are the two options? *****!!!!

Bee tee dubz.....

Disney is already raising ticket prices and reducing staff. So I guess from a guests perspective the answer to your question is neither. But to Disney the answer is BOTH!!! Pay me sucka!!!

And some of us have adopted the end strategy from 'War Games'

WOPR:The only way to win is not to play the game....

I've stopped playing the Disney game.

 

[tirian]

I thought it was all about eliminating the gaming of the system, first I heard of the ACA coming into play. How so? Most CTs wouldnt hit the 30, right?

Thanks

I’m no tax expert, but I know there were more complicated issues involving taxable benefits and hours required to receive discounts. The “gaming of the system” argument was the PC way to smooth it over. Most CTs were not locals, and were former CPs who traveled to Florida specifically to work a few hours during breaks. Of course, you can only take my word for it on a forum.

 

[tirian]

An interesting question...

My thought...for a long time (you've read it before)...is that the mechandise sales are starting to diminish greatly and they know it. If true...that could mean that they predict cost cutting/price gouging to be a better long term course...

Just a theory.

Merch sales are down because the market is oversaturated, and the theme parks merchandise is overpriced and rather generic. I can go to Amazon, Target, Kohl’s, the Disney Store, Macy’s, Hot Topic, and more and get Disney clothing that’s priced better than what’s in the parks.